A Look at the MMA Heavyweight Rankings Shake-Up
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 3:23 PM EDT
in MMA Rankings
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PrintIf one thing has been made clear by the last few weeks it is that the heavyweight division is incredibly unstable. By the time Fall begins to set in we're going to be looking at a divisional picture that is unbelievably different from May.
Let's look at the heavyweight rankings as posted on May 28 and see if we can't try to make some sense out of where the division will be on September 1.
#1 Fedor Emelianenko will face #2 Josh Barnett in August. I don't see this fight going well for Josh, but one never knows in this sport. Still, at the beginning of September the winner of this fight is clearly #1 in the division. If Fedor somehow doesn't pick up the win he probably only drops to #2, if Josh gets the loss he'll likely drop to somewhere in the #5 range.
We're roughly a month away from #3 Frank Mir taking on #6 Brock Lesnar at UFC 100. The winner will probably be ranked second or third in the division depending on the result of the Fedor fight. The reason Brock would make the jump to possibly as high as #2 with a win? Well, aside from beating the guy ranked third he also benefits from #4 Andrei Arlovski losing last weekend by knockout to unranked Brett Rogers. Coming off of two straight knockouts (one of which was when he was the extreme favorite) is probably going to bump Andei out of the top 10.
At UFC 102 on August 29 we'll get to see a bit of a delayed dream match as #5 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will fight #7 Randy Couture in what amounts to the "loser's bracket" fight of the mini-tournament. A loss for either guy is going to send them to the bottom end (if not out) of the top 10.
Speaking of "out of the top 10" #8 Tim Sylvia lost in 10 seconds to unranked Ray Mercer in a fight where Mercer had no skills other than boxing. Sylvia not only lost but showed up over 310 pounds. Sylvia was supposed to fight Paul Buentello at Affliction 3 but I'm guessing that doesn't happen as Tim will be fighting a medical suspension (and is 45 pounds over the heavyweight limit). I'd be shocked if he is in the top 20 by the time September arrives.
Given that 5 of the top ten will have picked up a loss by the end of August #9 Shane Carwin stands to move up significantly without even fighting. #10 Alistair Overeem is in the same boat although if his hand is healed he may be fighting on the August 15 Strikeforce card.
Relevant Fights Outside Top 10:
#13 Junior Dos Santos vs. Justin McCully
#16 Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer
#19 Cain Velasquez defeated #12 Cheick Kongo
#14 Mirko Filipovic defeated Mustapha Al-Turk
Post your predictions of what the USA Today/SBN Consensus Rankings will look like for the Heavyweight Top 10 after this all shakes out in the comments.
-- photo via mma.us
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Fedor
Lesnar
Nog
Carwin
Mir
Barnett
Velasquez
Arlovski
Dos Santos
Couture
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions
=)
1 Fedor Emelianenko
2 Josh Barnett
3 Frank Mir
4 Brett Rogers
5 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
6 Brock Lesnar
7 Randy Couture
8 Ray Mercer
9 Shane Carwin
10 Alistair Overeem
Working for WAMMA now are we?
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
The problem is the HW rankings are a total clusterf*ck already. Explain to me why Barnett is #2? Is there any reason other than “Hey he can fight Fedro”?
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
that's pretty much it
that and he hasn’t lost a fight in a long time. And his losses were to Cro Cop and Big Nog when they were at the top of the division. And controversial. Barnett got the Cro Cop eyepoke before Al-Turk did.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Barnett also lost to Cro Cop, like, three times. His last four wins are Yvel, Rizzo, Monson and Yoshida.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Riney said it best
he is 5-2 in his last 7. He lost to Cro Cop and Nog. His wins came against Yvel, Rizzo (2 wins since 03), Monson (1 of Rizzos wins), Yoshida (8-7) and Nastula (1-4).
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
two of the cro cop losses were BS
one is a shoulder dislocation and the other was an eyepoke.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
He only lost once to him in his last seven (I think that’s the ‘eyepoke’ one) – the injury and the OTHER WIN since Barnett is 0-3 against CC is before that streak.
But still, quite a murderer’s row he’s beaten lately – especially Nastula.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait a minute, an injury that was caused by cheating is a still a legitimate loss, right? How is that BS?
I’m in agreement with you here – ‘I would’ve beat him but I got hurt’ doesn’t really work ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU’VE NEVER BEATEN HIM EVER.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
its a loss
but it doesn’t make me write the guy off.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Yeah...
they’re already a mess. But seriously. we’re guaranteed (well…unless there are draws) that 5 of the top 10 will pick up a loss by the end of August.
That “great non-UFC heavyweight division” is quickly going away also considering that Arlovski and Sylvia really are going to plummet leaving the UFC looking a lot stronger.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
The UFC is the only organization that is building up the Heavyweights for the future. Maybe Strikeforce is also doing it slightly. Japan has basically ignored the division and Affliction is only taking what other organizations have created (Fedor, Arlovski, Sylvia, & Barnett) and paying them over market value to put them together. We are already seeing a shift towards the UFC in this division. They have almost all the next generations stars under contract.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
My predicted top 10
1. Fedor – I don’t see him losing to Barnett
2. Lesnar - Barnett is not going to hang out at #2 after losing, it never happens when the #2 loses a fight to the #1. And that means the #2 guy is out of the way, he’d have beaten Mir (in my predictive world), #4 was Arlovski who is gone, #5 is Nogueira who we’ll get to shortly so this moves Brock up to #2.
3. Couture – I figure he beats Nogueira by decision and since everyone else is losing all around him he’ll get an enormous boost from beating Big Nog. The word on the street is that Randy gets another shot at the title with a win and title shots always boost you up the ranking ladder.
4. Barnett – I figure Josh still can hang out in the top 5 after losing to the clear #1 guy in the division.
5. Carwin – He’s really going to benefit from waiting for the chaos to clear
6. Mir – I don’t think he’ll do well against Lesnar but the recent title reign will help
7. Overeem This is guessing, but I figure he fights on the Strikeforce show against some low level guy and wins to get a boost over all the guys who are losing around him.
8. Dos Santos – he’s out there fighting and winning which is enough in this division. Beating JMcM isn’t a big deal, but shit…at least he isn’t losing to Mercer in 10 seconds.
9. Nogueira – I don’t think people will quite drop him out of the rankings completely…but close.
10. Rogers – Beating the #4 guy has to count for something…right?
“Big Names” outside looking in are Werdum (not active enough), Cain (probably clocks in around 11 or 12) and Arlovski (who will probably be around 14)
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions
Have they not confirmed Overeem/Rogers yet? Supremacy, check with your network of shitty organization informants and get back to me
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I hadn't seen it confirmed...
…maybe I’m wrong?
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Good. How long do you want to keep it, or do you want to make a UFC 100 bet?
I have:
Lesnar & GSP
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
I have the same. What about Hendo/Bisping?
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
How do you give odds on a sig bet?
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
If Hendo wins my sig becomes “Walla walla walla I’m an idiot”
If Bisping wins you change your sig to “I love Hanna Montana”
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
He should have to add it to his sig, not change it to his sig.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jun 15, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
My biggest problem is with Mir and Nog. I don’t know how to treat their last fight. Was Nog significantly affected by the staph infection or whatever? I still think Mir is the type of guy who can give Lesnar trouble if he can keep from getting destroyed before pulling off a sub. Similarly, I think Nog is dangerous against Couture if he is better than he was against Mir.
by Cannon Jacques on Jun 14, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I just think Randy’s style is going to really nullify Nog’s game more than any sort of thinking he is shot because of the Mir fight.
I just don’t think Mir responds well to getting smashed in the face and I don’t think there is any way he doesn’t get smashed in the rematch.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
How is Josh #2?
Good old day syndrome?
He’s hasn’t done much in a long time. A win over Jeff (decision) isn’t so impressive. Other than that his last 3 years are a big yawn.
the gravity of fighting Fedor
it pulled Andre and Sylvia up the charts as well (Tim not as much as the others due to Randy and Big Nog).
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
A scheduled fight does not make you better
So where was Choi ranked the day before he fought Fedor?
Nate didn't say it was right...
just that it has a history of happening
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Its senseless
Anyway…no big deal…doing a ranking is a no win situation but I enjoyed your hard work putting it together even if I didn’t agree with it.
So who deserves the #2 spot?
If Barnett is NOT #2, then who is, especially in the UFC? Lesnar is the UFC champion, so is he #2 by just beating Randy Couture and Heath Herring, or is the fact that he has a UFC belt makes his ranking over-valued? Carwin?—Isn’t he pretty much in the same spot as Brett Rogers in that he recently beat a highly ranked fighter and is undefeated? I’d like to hear the argument who is #2.
Lesnar or Mir. Ranking should be based on current performances, not past performance. Had Randy won, he would be ranked #2 right now so it lends credence to Lesnar as #2. The same goes for Nogueira who would have been the clear #2 had he beat Mir. Barnett hasn’t done anything currently that warrants #2 ranking since you have to fight top competition to keep your rank and not just slosh through a win where you look terrible against a sub-top ten opponent.
Barnett took a year off, and since then his biggest win is over Jeff Monson a training partner. How that gets him ranked #2 is beyond me. Fighters should not be rewarded for taking time off and then not fighting top level guys. That is what many rankings have done with Barnett.
Mir should be #2 at this time. The winner of Mir/Lesnar should be #2 in the world after the fight is over. The only way the winner could drop to #3 is if Barnett beats Fedor, in which case it would be: 1) Barnett 2) Fedor 3)Mir/Lesnar.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
According to the logic that “ranking should be based on current performances, not past performances,” then Brett Rogers defeating Arlovski in 22 seconds or Carwin beating Gonzaga within the first round would warrant a much higher ranking. Personally, and I am not trying to insult you in any way, but I don’t really see how the above statement is logical especially with Lesnar being #2. It just comes across that Lesnar having the UFC title is being over-valued here (I am just using Lesnar as an example here). If Couture did not have the title when Lesnar beat him, would Lesnar still be as highly ranked (knowing that he only had one win in the UFC prior to fighting Couture)?
There is something to be said about winning big MMA fights on a big stage.
And the fact is that Couture was the champion. He beat Sylvia. He then beat Gonzaga who had beaten Cro Cop.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
It works most of the time.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jun 15, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
You just proved the inherent biases in the current ranking. CroCop is still ranked in the top ten above Lesnar on MMAWeekly’s ranking.
There is a simple solution to all of this. The winner of Fedor vs. Barnett signs with the UFC. And then they fight the winner of Lesnar/Mir. It would end so many debates.
Look at Light Heavyweight and Welterweight. I have seen a lot of rankings that aren’t very good. However, people don’t seem to care since the majority of the competition is in one organization (UFC). And people just figure the top will fight each other eventually.
This forumua makes things so much easier.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ranking is imperfect. However, how do you justify a guy like CroCop ranked higher than the two fighters he lost to (Gonzaga and Kongo) and then put Lesnar ranked below the fighter he beat and also CroCop who shouldn’t even be ranked at all? Rankings is subjective, but the subjective opinions has got to have some rhyme or reason and a little logic. For “journalists,” MMAWeekly’s rankings are ridiculous and are made with clear bias.
I actually dont' pay much attention to MMAWEEKLY's rating system
And this inherent bias in the current ranking applies to the UFC Heavyweight division as well. Carwin beats one good fighter in Gonzaga and beat a bunch of not-so-good fighters before that and is a top ten heavyweight. Lesnar beats Couture and Herring but loses to Mir and is in talks of being the number 2 heavyweight in the world? It really is just a matter of the division itself being out of whack, and whether or not one sees the UFC heavyweight division as having the best fighters out there. I am NOT saying that these fighters are in any way bad fighters, but their records warrant criticism towards their rankings.
Barnett at #2
is a joke, as I have said before he is 5-2 in his last 7. He lost to Cro Cop and Nog. His wins came against Yvel, Rizzo (2 wins since 03), Monson (1 of Rizzos wins), Yoshida (8-7) and Nastula (1-4).
The UFC fighters get screwed by the level of competition they fight.
agree
people give way too much credit to wins instead of quality fights.
Correct. And they also knock guys down the rankings too quick for quality losses.
Look at Matt Hughes. He has only lost to GSP and Alves in over 4 years, and now he is near the bottom of many people’s Top 10’s, and below guys like Parisyan, Condit, Shields, and Kampmann. Which makes no sense.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
But he lost to two of the best WW's on the planet!
He’s clearly done
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Barnett...
is #2 because I think people are trying to go based off of what they THINK he is capable of vs. what he has done recently.
Just my take
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 2:51 PM EDT reply actions
He’s #2 for the same reason AA was #2 for the same reason Thales fucking Leites was #2 – he’s fighting the champ.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
This is very true also...
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because he is fighting the champion, doesn’t mean he should have an increase in ranking. Makes no sense.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
When the hell was Leites #2?
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jun 15, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't agree
completely but fuck this is 99% better than most.
No ranking system makes sense in the Heavyweight Division at this time. There has been a major shift in the division from the old guard (Arlovski, Sylvia, Sergei, etc…) to the new one…. Which includes guys like Carwin, Velasquez, & Rogers. I think by the end of 2009 things will work themselves out more and a better ranking can be established.
1 Fedor
2 Lesnar
3 Everyone else
That is the extent of my HW rankings.
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
I posted this last week:
1. Fedor
2. (vacant)
3. (vacant)
4. Brock
5. Mir
6. Randy
7, Noguiera
8. Barnett
9. Kongo
10. Carwin
Then Overeem, Cain V, AA, Gonzaga, Sylvia.
After last night I would move Kongo out of the top 10, move Carwin to 9 and Cain to 10. And Sylvia completely out.
I don’t even like to bother with rankings. I just have a #1 and a #2. After that point rankings get all sloppy.
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
Sloppy but fun
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The big issue here is Miragliotta.
It was obvious that there was something amiss causing al Turk to turtle up like that. We all know how people react to a punch, and that’t not it. Al Turk was injured by a foul, unable to defend himself, and Miragliotta did nothing.
Don’t referees have training to prepare them for the unexpected? Don’t they have conferences to discuss incidents that might have been handled better where they can all learn from them?
WHY AREN’T REFEREES HELD TO HIGH STANDARDS?
I'll leave it...
just because it’s about the heavyweights
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont buy dos santos yet. he might be the real deal but i havent seen him try to defend a takedown yet.
gonzaga better beat tushiechechcher. people point at that guy being a strong wrestler but its all he does.
antonio could be shot, but randy is definitely old. in life you bet on certainties. i feel bad for the old man too, because getting divorced and sinking money into clothing and your gym means you dont have anything left in your savings.
brock and mir is like this – brock isnt gonna go wild. mir can only pull guard. what did vinny magawhatever teach us all about doing that against wrestlers? exactly. brock, big time.
fedor beats barnett but it ends up being more competitive than the last two guys, so all the people who are upset that he never signed his life away complain that he lost a step and needs to fight a proven product like brown pride or BLAAAAAHHHH (shout out if you remember that) brock lesnar.
rogers/overeem isnt even on the books but if it does get there, man, hell, i dunno. overeem i guess if he passes a piss test.
top ten by labor day -
1 fedor
2 lesnar
3 really big nog – but its a false positive beating couture. hes gonna look like hes moving underwater
4 barnett – because hes competitive against fedor. also a false positive
5 carwin
6 cain – after mir gets crushed everyone is gonna realize these two dudes might dead him
7 mir – people will wonder if he belongs. unless he fights couture theyll know for sure.
8 randy – i say he loses to nog. if he does he doesnt belong in the top 10. but that doesnt mean people wont vote for him anyways. thats the real prediction here. i dont know if he beats gonzaga in a rematch. its been more than a minute since they rumbled
9 overeem – monson would darce his ass in like 50 seconds.
10 rogers – if he doesnt fight overeem, hes here, because he loses. also true if they somehow get bigfoot silva out of suspension. he beats up rogers pretty bad too. and so does buentello. if he does fight overeem, overeem might get by mir and randy and herring, kongo, gonzaga, or some other guy thats obviously not that good ends up here instead.
I can agree
on most but the only person as over rated as Barnett is Overeem. I will live with Rogers cause he just clowned AA, and is undefeated. I think Lesnar, Mir, Nog, Carwin and maybe Cain all beat Barnett tho. I would like to see Randy vs Barnett. That would make a good fight.
You’re most definitely a bit biaised towards the UFC guys.
I definitely don’t think Mir would beat Barnett. With Lesnar, Nog and Carwin it’s 50/50 though in my mind in all those matchups Barnett would be the favourite. Lesnar may win via GnP decision. Barnett would handle Randy.
barnett has a real shot at beating nog. he did it before. i think hed be a favorite against mir, actually. cain, carwin and lesnar all have a good shot, but barnett has a huge experience advantage. still, the problem is he isnt taking the sport seriously enough, and for that reason you dont know what will actually end up happening next, especially if he loses to barnett.
randy/barnett II wouldnt be pretty, i dont think.
Barnett has a better resume than Mir
He has beaten Couture, Big Nog, Rizzo,-yeah kinda old but isn’t Couture and we still have him in the top ten, I also think Yvel is a tough guy to beat, certainly better than Tank, Every fighter has a list of cans they beat in the beginning of their careers, I’m no Barnett lover but can see how he’s ranked so high, personally I’m waiting for Carwin, Velasquez, and Dos Santos to move up once they get some quality fights in, and am I the only one who thinks Couture and Noguiera are about on their last go round in the top ten?? All this talk of them moving back up seems like they should be in the senior division, along with one of my past favorites Mirko.
Doesn't anybody think before they speak/post anymore?
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