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After UFC 99 What's Next for the UFC's Heavyweight Division?

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Cain Velasquez's dominating performance over Cheick Kongo on Saturday night at UFC 99 has opened up the discussion as to what is on the mind of UFC's matchmaker Joe Silva and UFC President Dana White. Kongo was conceivably in line for a title shot if he had pushed past up-and-comer Cain Velasquez, but now there are questions regarding where Cain should be positioned near the top. While it's evident that Cain still has some improvements to make in his standup game, he still has controlling wrestling ability, power, and performances to warrant at least a shot at one of the potential contenders at the top.

The middle of the division will be the main focus at UFC 102 with one top flight fight that could potentially set up a title match with the winner of Mir vs. Lesnar. Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is an interesting match for a few reasons. Most notably, will the UFC give Couture a rematch with Lesnar right away if both win their next fight? I wouldn't believe an instant title shot would be warranted, but Couture's career may be heading toward a close. Also, would the UFC push a Noguiera vs. Mir rematch if both win? There are a lot of options, and the UFC hasn't truly stated if Couture vs. Nogueira is a contender match either. Both Couture and Nogueira may have lengthy turnarounds to get into fighting shape again as well due to their age.

UFC 102 also features Justin McCully vs. Junior Dos Santos and Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer. My belief is that since Dana was willing to matchup Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic with Cain Velasquez, Dana is still trying to build up Cain and not rush him into contention. The winner of one of these matches will likely be Cain's next test since the concept of the UFC pushing Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic into contention is out of the question now. Santos would be a solid test, and it would also give Santos a stiff test in proving he has a ground game. Of course McCully could beat Santos by exposing him on the ground first. Gonzaga would also be a solid test as he has solid standup with a good ground game. Are either of those two guys beneath Cain at this point? 

The other twist in this puzzle is Shane Carwin. According to his Twitter, he was cleared to spar on May 27th. It'll be interesting to see who the UFC decides to pit him against in the coming months. I'd go with a potential match with Santos if he defeats McCully, but there is always the possibility that the UFC pushes him into the limelight due to his  impressive knockout win over Gonzaga. Could the UFC match him up with the loser of Couture/Nogueira? Or would they actually pit him against the loser of Lesnar/Mir?

It's truly a twist that put me into a deep conversation regarding the division with a friend last night after Cain Velasquez vs. Cheick Kongo fight took place. My thoughts are that if Mir wins and Couture wins, they could potentially push a title match. Of course, the concept of Couture being the champ and then retiring doesn't help that possibility. With a Lesnar and Nogueira win, Lesnar vs. Nogueira may make sense. I think the most intriguing questions involve the guys just outside of those two top fights. 

The final factor to weigh in the potential for Fedor Emelianenko to put his name into the hat. Dana White will not do a one-fight deal, so it's up to Fedor if he wants to challenge himself. Conceivably, the UFC would push Fedor instantly into a title shot with Lesnar/Mir, and then set up matches from the contenders. The only guy who really loses from a Fedor acquisition is Nogueira, who has been defeated twice and was on his way to a third before an accidental headbutt ended their bout at PRIDE Final Conflict 2004. The UFC would want to set him up with Lesnar, Mir, Couture, and whoever comes out of the heap in the middle of the pack. This is all pure speculation right now, and I'm under the belief we won't see Fedor until next year... if at all. 

Dana White also talked about the possibility of bringing Josh Barnett back if he defeats Fedor Emelianenko. I don't think Barnett is going to defeat Emelianenko, but he's an dangerous guy to throw in the mix at the top of the UFC's heavyweight division. He could give almost all the top guys problems on the floor, but many fans would say the bout with Gilbert Yvel was a true sign that Barnett might not be able to hang with the absolute best anymore.

In any case, how will the division stack up after UFC 102? It's a tough puzzle to solve, and it's going to be an interesting few months for the UFC brass and Joe Silva to sift through all the possibilities. Maybe they'll decide Ray Mercer needs a shot in the UFC.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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do you think Cheik Kongo is completely out of the picture after being dominanted? he clearly has a huge hole with his wrestling, so carwin is out of the question. if lesner loses, Kongo would be a rather obvious tuneup for him to get back rolling. Dos Santos vs Kongo has potential though. Pat Berry is another guy that is lost on the ground, so Kongo vs Berry might need to happen just to square away one of the two kick boxers back into the win column.

Herring also presents a solid name to take a beating if they dont want to match up their rising stars against each other to stretch out their respective reputations.

by Stanlee on Jun 14, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pat Berry would wreck Cheick Kongo on the feet but I am pretty sure Kongo would try to take it to the ground a la Hardonk.

by Ahhhoki on Jun 14, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kongo is probably out of the picture right now for the exact reason you stated — he isn’t much of a wrestler. Do you really see him beating Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, or Randy Couture? All those guys would likely just take him down and smash him.

by Andy R on Jun 14, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Barry needs to fight a Hardonk or McCully

if they’re not already cut. he’s got very few fights under his belt.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

due to his impressive knockout win over Gonzaga

Extra space. Barnett is such a whore for money that I can easily believe him spitting on the WAMMA belt after winning it and signing with Zuffa. On the other hand, I find it hard to imagine Dana forgetting about Barnett tainting a title fight with Couture by juicing.

Carwin is the most worthy of a title shot right now – undefeated and a convincing win over Gonzaga.

by subo on Jun 14, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lol

Dana doesn’t care about steroids in title fights per se — Sylvia and Sherk both came back afterwards, Sherk never even admitted it.
What Barnett did was not serve his suspension and run off to Japan.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you think the athletic commissions might have a problem with Barnett, then? Can’t they still say ‘you have to sit out for x amount of time’?

by subo on Jun 14, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that he's fought in the U.S. several times since then

so whatever issues are over.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Carwin looks to be the most deserving to me right now, all the other guys have very recent losses on their record, other than Velasquez and Carwin has been much more impressive to me than Cain, I think Mir or Lesnar could stuff his takedowns and KTFO him on the feet. Carwin looks ready to me, plus he is much older than Velasquez. Cain needs more seasoning, too bad CroCop is gone that would have been a good next fight for him, perhaps Herring after he heals up would work.

by ufc4 on Jun 14, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

dos Santos

is the man for Cain IMO.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that would be a good fight too, or how about Struve?

by ufc4 on Jun 14, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Struve has a long way to go before fighting someone relevant since he already lost to Dos Santos.

I’ve only seen his UFC fights, so I don’t know if Dos Santos has a ground game. I’d assume so, training with the Nogueiras. He did try to take down Struve, but when that got stuffed he was obviously happy to keep it standing. I’d rather see him in with another kick boxer like Kongo or Berry than see him get taken down and held there by a wrestler like Cain or Carwin.

by Stanlee on Jun 14, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d like to see Kongo fight Carwin next. Sure he lost to Cain but he definitely had periods of dominance. I’d like to see him come back in a similar fight with an upgraded game plan and ground defense. Shane is the good one to make that happen. I don’t know if I’d give him a chance if he lost again, though…

Pat Berry had Tim Hague beaten and got way too excited. Hague is enough of a veteran and ground fighter to shoot for the takedown when he is hurt. Which is something almost anyone does at a high level, so I think keeping his distance and remaining patient will be Berry’s key to success. I’d like to see him take a fight nice and slow (I know that’s not really his style), throw leg kicks and jabs and an occasional left high kick, he should be golden. I see him as potentially being a new Cro Cop if he can work out his weaknesses in the Octagon a bit better.

I don’t know if I buy into dos Santos yet, but I think a fight with him and Gonzaga would be good after Gabriel clowns that fat guy he has to fight.

Herring has to show me that he can do something. In his last fights, he hasn’t shown himself to be a threat on the ground (how else are you going to beat an actually game Kongo?), and his stand-up has NEVER looked good to me. He has poor accuracy with his punches and wild kicks that often result in him getting countered or taken down. But he’s a good measuring stick so I won’t complain when he’s matched up against someone good.

by Ahhhoki on Jun 14, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Carwin is a terrible fight for Kongo

There’s zero reason to believe he can beat a top wrestler — Marrero, Herring, Cain all beat him soundly on the ground. That question has been answered.
I think Kongo’s role in the UFC heavyweight division should be comparable to Marcus Davis in the WW’s — let him fight the guys who think they can bang on the feet and the jiu jitsu guys. Those will make for exciting fights and he’ll win enough to stay around a long time. He’s a good asset for the UFC — threat to KO anyone, good look, familiar to the fans.
I think Gonzaga is a natural opponent for him.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would

like to see the Gonz fight as well. Perfect analogy comparing Congo to Davis.

by Riney on Jun 14, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzaga would make a good fight and you’re definitely right that Kongo could make a name for himself as a gatekeeper but I am under the assumption that he can still grow and become a world-class heavyweight. But the first person he needs to beat is himself.

by Ahhhoki on Jun 14, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Kongo/Gonzaga would be good matchmaking here.

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Jun 14, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So Cain was dropped 2-3 times in the Kongo fight – does this mean he has a bad chin for being dropped, or a good chin for going down but not out?

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Jun 14, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is your

glass half empty or half full?

by Riney on Jun 14, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I meant to say

are you a UFC nut-hugger or part of the anti-zuffa movement?

by Riney on Jun 14, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the problem here is that everybody’s cup is full.

by Ahhhoki on Jun 14, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good. It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s how quickly you get back up (and whether you have elite wrestling once you come to).

by subo on Jun 14, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think its amazing that he was able to repeatedly take down Kongo

while basically out on his feet.
That is the benefit of a life time of wrestling.
Velasquez can literally take a man down in his sleep.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My jaw dropped when he got nailed twice & still powered through a takedown – what a beast!

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Jun 14, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did too…until I watched the rest of the fight and how poorly Kongo did.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Jun 14, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

more amazed w/ kongo's lack of take down defence

he knows this and has for a while. he has supposedly been concentrating on grapling for years and this is the best he could do? did he even sprawl once? did he even try to step back out of the clinch when he had the chance? no. his fight IQ is on a sherkian level, which is sad. if he could just learn to sprawl we’d all be talking title shot. sigh. kongo will never be an elite fighter.

cain’s a great positional wrestler. great toughness and strength. prob top 10 HW in the world.
that’s where my praise ends. No standup defense, no power on the ground, and no knowledge of BJJ. i
if he is able to make his game multidimensional, he will have a chance at the belt. if not, he will become a one dimensional gatekeeper like kongo

by fuzzy wuzzy on Jun 14, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“Dumbfounded” accurately describes me and the folks I was watching with.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Jun 14, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cain has a good chin

That being said he needs to find a way to not get hit so much, Carwin and Brock have HUGE power and he’s not going to be able to take them down at will.

by ufc4 on Jun 14, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good chin, bad defence.

by brad23 on Jun 14, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

 Looks like Cains chin is pretty damn goo as far as I can tell.
There’s a few great match ups with Carwin, Cain, Nogeura, Cotoure etc. but the big question is who gets a shot at the strap next. IMO you cant have Nog or Cotoure in there cause of their recent knockout losses. If the winner of of Lesnar Mir/ needs more than 4 more months to prepare for the next defense then the most desireable scenario is a Carwin v. Cain match for #1 contender. If Mir / Lesnar is pretty quick and little damage is done to the the winner then they will probably just throw Carwin in there for the title shot right away. IMO that is more reasonable than giving it to the winner of Cotoure /Nog.

by naturalist on Jun 14, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I doubt they'll burn two top contenders in Cain and Carwin

by having a title elimination match.
Carwin is such a natural foil for Lesnar that I expect him to be getting a shot post haste.
Cain is younger and has more time to build.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Jun 14, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah carwin’s window for a title shot closes a hell of a lot earlier than Cain’s. Truthfully, given his size disadvantage, Cain needs some time to work out some kinks in his standup. Before the Kongo fight, I thought that Cain’s standup was the best of the 3, he looked incredibly fluid in his combinations against stojnic whereas Lesner and Carwin just throw straight bombs without kicks or knees.

Carwin and Lesner both seem to hit a lot harder than Kongo, although its obviously a different kind of striking. That shot that Lesner floored Herring with, for instance, isn’t something you take on the chin and keep coming… it doesn’t matter if you can take a guy down while unconscious if the force of a punch sends you careening ass over head across the ring.

by Stanlee on Jun 14, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

gotta appreciate CroCop destroying the 1% chance of any one fight deals every happening again. what a jerkoff.

Gatti. Dekkers. Pele. Aoki. Kang. Vanderlei.
http://theworldsoldestsport.blogspot.com/

by theworldsoldestsport on Jun 14, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Both Couture and Nogueira may have lengthy turnarounds to get into fighting shape again as well due to their age.

Nog only just turned 33. Easy mistake to make though. Poor bastard’s taken a beating over the years.

by Meeaaat on Jun 14, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think what he was getting at was the fact that his body is much older than his actual age.

by ufc4 on Jun 14, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if barnett beat fedor and then ended up in the ufc, that would solve everyones problems about getting to see whos best and all that. the only thing is that i have no faith that theyd get barnett. not because dana isnt a good negotiator but because barnett is a weird dude with priorities that make sense only to him. if he beats fedor, he will first look to use that as a springboard to win pro wrestling matches probably before looking to make millions fighting.

by nigelzackit on Jun 14, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Barnett

isn’t dumb. He won’t come to the UFC and get himself exposed to Cain/Mir/Lesnar. Who would? If I beat Fedor I run and hide in Japan, rake in the yen and Asian girls and fight cans for years. No way in hell would I go to the UFC and run thru a gauntlet of HWs to get a title shot.

by Riney on Jun 14, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if he beat fedor they wouldnt make him do some gauntlet for a title shot. but he still probably wants to like, i dunno, cosplay or something instead.

by nigelzackit on Jun 14, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But why do it?

If he gets crushed in round 1 everyone will scream over rated. He needs to run and hide in Japan and wait for a rematch and make millions.

by Riney on Jun 14, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My match-ups after UFC 99 would be…

Cain vs. Struve

Kongo vs. Duffee

Carwin vs. Herring

Hardonk vs. Hague

Barry vs. Grove

by Raker on Jun 14, 2009 11:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Did Gonzaga fall into a pit of no return?

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Jun 15, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cain vs Struve: Don’t think so…. why would Cain take a step down after beating Kongo? I like the Cain vs Gonzaga idea.

Kongo vs Duffee: That might make sense but I don’t think it will happen.

Carwin vs Herring: That won’t happen. Carwin is taking a step up in competition and Herring can’t provide that right now after being out for more than a year. Look for Carwin vs Dos Santos in my opinion.

Hardonk vs Hague: Makes sense.

Barry vs Grove: I don’t see Neil Grove fighting in the UFC again after what Mike C did to him.

What the fuck is a "robster craw"?

by Gunslinger20 on Jun 15, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just read that Duffee is fighting Russow at 102 so you can add that HW matchup to that card.

And just in case you’re wondering why I matched up Cain and Struve, it’s the same reason why the UFC matched up Dos Santos and McCully it’s a fight that the guy should win and if he can’t he has no business being in title contention.

by Raker on Jun 15, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, I disagree bout Cain vs Struve..

Struve was destroyed by Dos Santos and then he beat Stojnic which was no surprise….

Struve’s next opponent should be Kongo.

Duffee vs Russow is going to be an awesome fight, I gotta give the edge to Russow…. the man is a tank.

What the fuck is a "robster craw"?

by Gunslinger20 on Jun 16, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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