UFC 98 Trending Estimates Suggest a 635,000 PPV Buyrate
According to the newest issue of Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer and other sources, UFC 98 reportedly has trending estimates that are putting the pay-per-view buyrate in the area of 635,000 buys for the event. This isn't a final number, but this is a huge surprise for a card that featured Lyoto Machida vs. Rashad Evans and Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes.
If the trending estimates are true, it suggests that Lyoto Machida could very well be a major drawing fighter in the future for the UFC. Unlike Anderson Silva, Machida seems to be a much more enticing draw for the casual fanbase, but maybe we shouldn't be too surprised. After all, the chants for Machida were ringing loudly at UFC 98 as Evans tried to work any type of gameplan to damage the Shotokan karate master.
Matt Serra and Matt Hughes undoubtedly had a factor in the buyrate as well, but the hype that the matchup had produced during The Ultimate Fighter reality series could have pushed the number a tad higher had the fight taken place earlier. Hughes is still a draw for casual fans as he has been in the spotlight for most of his career, and casual fans have watched Matt Serra over the past couple of years.
The most interesting factor here is that Anderson Silva has a hard time breaking over 300,000 buys while Machida as a main event attraction along with a solid matchup in Hughes vs. Serra produces well over two times that amount. Most fans would chalk this up to the fact that Machida can actually speak better English than Anderson and the light heavyweight division has more interesting matchups, but I think it goes a tad deeper than that.
Is it the fact that Anderson Silva simply squashes all of his opponents? It may have something to do with it, but it could also be the fact that the UFC has been unable to hype up Anderson's opponents to their full potential. Rashad and Machida had an ongoing war of words involving how each fighter would strategically dismantle the other fighter with Machida making these epic monologues about how his "mind is a sword". Generally, Anderson Silva acts like the almighty while his opponents state cliche answers that nobody really believes will happen.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to the matchups. The middleweight division doesn't have the prestige that the light heavyweight division has right now. Anderson Silva's opponents have all been easily dismantled or toyed during his title defenses, and the division doesn't exactly offer over-the-top characters in their contenders. Dan Henderson is comparable to Chuck Liddell in interviews, and there wasn't a whole lot of hype for Patrick Cote, Thales Leites, or even James Irvin at light heavyweight. Silva doesn't exactly help the hype machine either as he can't speak English without a translator. I don't think he truly understands that the biggest PPV draws in the fight game have had that mixture of promotional marketing and self-promoting.
Machida has a huge advantage in being the top fighter in a division that is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. He can also speak decent English, and he's still learning. He definitely has the personality to talk a little trash here and there, and he's also becoming a finishing fighter whereas Anderson Silva has dropped off the map due to... boredom? In any case, this is encouraging news for the UFC. They have another huge drawing fighter in the light heavyweight division who can potentially help them draw fans as Chuck Liddell now leaves his legacy behind.
photo via newsday.comThe FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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We won’t really know until Machida headlines against Rua. But, I do certainly hope he becomes a draw, I hope Machida sticks around at the top and defends the title a great many times.
I’m swinging from Machida’s nuts, and I’m proud of it. :)
by Kaleb Kelchner on Jun 12, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
supposedly a lot of the traffic for this event was coming in for the hughes/serra fight, for what its worth. ill say this; if they show in a couple months that they did convert matt hughes fans to machida, thats nothing short of a miracle.
Exactly. Even if a lot of people were there for Serra vs. Hughes… they will have saw Machida’s potential. Hopefully, those fans begin buying PPVs for Machida.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone that saw Machida destroy Evans is going to miss his next fight.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 12, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
If it turns out Machida isn’t a draw in the future, I’ll head up the Lyoto Hype Machine Street Team. lol
by Kaleb Kelchner on Jun 12, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
Lets not overlook a couple of things
1) Rashad Evans was the champ going into the fight. Had exposure on TUF 2. Had won back to back against superstars Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell in dominating fashion. Rashad may be hated by many fans, but give the man some credit. I think a good number of people tuned in to see him get his mouth shut.
2) Anderson Silva doesn’t speak English at all. And he’s black. To many UFC fans sadly I think he appears entirely alien. Anderson took his belt by destroying a moderately popular Rich Franklin. Franklin was the weak sister of the old Chuck-Matt Hughes-Rich Franklin white boy troika that drove the UFCs marketing in 2005-2007. So Anderson didn’t get even a medium size build off that.
3) Machida by contrast is learning English. He is lighter skinned (sadly this matters somehow). He has an asian last name and the karate mystique. Never underestimate this. The whole idea of the Asian man with secret fighting knowledge has been massively marketed to Americans for 40+ years — Bruce Lee, Karate Kid, Jackie Chan, Austin Powers’ “Judo Chop” etc etc. Also Machida hasn’t had to knock off anyone popular to get where he is. Unlike Rashad and Rampage, he never beat Chuck or Wandy or Forrest and pissed off a huge segment of fans.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
You really think Silva’s color has something to do with it? There are a number of black fighters that I thing bring in great numbers, I think it’s more along the lines of his lack of english skills than the color of skin if we wanted to talk about intangibles.
I think it does
obviously its something that can be overcome — look at what TUF exposure did for Rampage. Let’s not forget though how Rampage was booed after KO’ing Chuck don’t forget the infamous YouTube video from Hooters where all the black fans went crazy and ALL the white fans sulked. Ugly stuff.
But once many of those fans got to know Rampage’s hilarious persona, they were won over.
So its not a 100% thing, but it contributes.
And Anderson isn’t just black — he’s Brazilian black. Very exotic and foreign in a way that Amercian pop culture doesn’t have any reference point for.
His dance moves after the fights are strange and also seen as mocking his opponents, much like Rashad’s various moves that have raised so much ire.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Like Rashad Evans, apparently. A little bit of a contridiction there?
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
I'm not saying that UFC fans won't pay to see black fighters
I’m just saying that its part of a mix that hurts Anderson.
I think Rashad’s race was also part of a mix that created a heel persona for him with many fans. KO’ing Chuck and Forrest and then the nut grabbing and “showboating” are all part of that.
I think many fans bought UFC 98 to see that sassy punk Rashad get his.
Machida delivered and I think won enormous good will from the fans.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
only makes sence if most causal UFC fans are narrow minded rednecks.
The NBA and the NFL are my other points.
1.) Good point. Evans had the exposure to support the event as well, and his huge knockout over Chuck Liddell definitely turned heads.
2.) I think his English speaking capabilities outweigh his color. I’d argue that Rampage is black, yet he draws. I think Silva’s speaking abilities hurt him significantly.
3.) Machida has much better English, but he’s also somewhat of a shit talker as well. I like his confidence in the fight game, and it translates to producing a little more hype. It also opens up the possibility for opponents to talk back. Good points on the Bruce Lee, Karate Kid, etc.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
true true
on 2) &3) its not just that Anderson doesn’t speak english, he doesn’t sell fights at all. The guy comes across as too cool for school and coasting through his recent fights haven’t helped any.
If he had any sense he’d be playing the heel in a huge way against Forrest.
But he has no marketing sense it seems.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
You’re right, and I think the fact he can’t talk English very well translates to not being able to sell a fight. He does have that too cool for school attitude. Anderson should just DEMOLISH his opponents, and create some buzz for a fight he really wants.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
He should get out there and say horrible things about Forrest
and talk about how he is going to humiliate him and all his fans.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Exactly, even if its just for show. Hell, they should try to call each other up, and plan this shit out. After all, it’s BOTH their paychecks.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
... and eat his children
i’m totally on board w/ the self marketing / shit talk idea. i think it would makes a huge difference.
hey anderson silva, are you reading this????
ohh my bad, i forgot.
I disagree with you on the “Rampage draws.” Dont get me wrong, Rampage is one of the UFC’s most popular fighters but he has yet to bring in a significant amount of buys where he would be considered a “draw.” We can bring up that UFC 71, 86, and 92, broke into the 500,000 range but he fought against two fan favorites (Liddell, Griffin) and he fought on the stacked end of the year show which was headlned by Griffin. He was pretty much the focus on 96 and it only brought in around 375,000 range.
by The Bronzeville Bully on Jun 12, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
This is true, those events were more lackluster buys.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
that's comparing apples to oranges.
UFC 96 was freaking Page vs Jardine (a non title fight). Even I wasn’t excited about it.
I agree with point #1
I think a big part of it was people tuning in to see Rashad get his mouth shut. I don’t think people were necessarily rooting for Machida but I think they were rooting against Rashad. And that turned Machida into an instant favorite for the fans. I also think it was a big deal to everybody that both fighters were undefeated going in to this fight.
Also Machida hasn’t had to knock off anyone popular to get where he is. Unlike Rashad and Rampage, he never beat Chuck or Wandy or Forrest and pissed off a huge segment of fans.
I think this is a severely overlooked part of Silva’s lack of popularity. I also think it would have been less detrimental to him if he’d beaten Rich in a close, competitive fight. Utterly destroying him twice, on the other hand…
In the build up for the second fight, as well as the post fight decsion announcement.
You can see a real reluctance in Anderson…I’ve always thought it was a reluctance to destroy Franklin again, and especially in his hometown infront of his fans.
I think it’s more that Silva has had a few really terrible outings, if he was more consistent people would be more inclined to watch him. I know personally he’s lost a lot of fans with his last 2 outings. Putting on terrible performances has done nothing but hurt his value.
Yeah his competition has been less than stellar but pissing around with them and refusing to fight them has really hurt his stock.
Yeah, but his numbers have been poor dating back more events than just recent ones.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
correct..
even when silva was wrecking dudes he never was really a draw.. kinda sad really.. i definitely think nate is right and english plays a big factor here.
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 12, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it does a lot. Anderson probably shys away from trash talk as well because of that, and his opponents don’t offer much either.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah plus you cant expect casuals to be excited about leites and cote though..
maybe him beating forrest up could get him more fans..
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 12, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, I didn’t care at all about Leites or Cote. At ALL.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
those were bad bookings.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Maybe he wants to stay away from a Wandy situation where he says in broken english that he wants to “make love” to another fighter.
by szucconi on Jun 12, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
LOL
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
They got Anderson in position to break through
After the UFN night when he KTFO’d James Irvin on free TV, they had pushed him very hard.
The Cote fight just left people flat who were open to giving him a chance.
The Leites fight was the kiss of death.
someone should do a chart of Anderson’s hype and draws over time. It’ll show that he knocked off a champ (Rich Franklin) who was a relatively, weak draw and then was building a little bit of steam with a series of impressive wins but still not building much of a draw.
Then he has the Irvin fight, does slightly better with Cote (but only barely) and then flatlines.
The thing to remember is that drawing 300,000 buys as a headliner in 2007 like Rich Franklin did was one thing, but drawing that same 300,000 in 2009 is a whole different matter. The middleweight champ has gone from a weak draw to a drag on the numbers.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
I always thought that Anderson didn’t talk smack b/c of his soft voice – I mean how would that come across to his opponents
"My job is a decision-making job, and as a result, I make a lot of decisions." --George W. Bush, The Decider, Lancaster, Pa., Oct. 3, 2007
by lovingmma25 on Jun 12, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It was actually extra creepy with Iron Mike...
but that had the visual component to go with it.
Anderson doesn’t have the visual creepiness to make that soft voice work.
by Razreshat on Jun 12, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ll agree with this. I think Silva was on the way to breaking through and the fight with Cote really kyboshed any momentum he had to being a bigger draw. The fight on Spike against Irvin probably worked well in continuing to get eyes on his fights (since it was free) but the Cote fight and the shenanigans and refusal to fight started the downward trend. I’m curious what Silva is going to show up against Griffin.
i think it's also because it was their premier belt on the line..
if lyoto was a lightweight i doubt they’d get as much buys..
Agreed.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
buyrate at Anderson Silva's UFC 97?
Come on… UFC 97 did 625,000 buys! Yeah a big part of that was Liddell, but a big part of 98’s buys was Serra vs Hughes that had been hyped for nearly 2 years now and was the sole focus of an entire season of TUF.
Plus, at 97 Silva was what, a 5-1 favorite? Are there many guys that can sell those kinds of ppv numbers when the outcome of the fight is not really in question from the moment the fight is announced?
http://insidefights.com/2009/05/07/ufc-97-buyrate-higher-than-expected/
Liddell vs. Shogun was the big fight everyone was looking forward to at UFC 97. I think Liddell vs. Shogun was the anchor by far.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
liddell's drawing power?
Rua was so unimpressive in the Coleman fight… its hard to think many folks tuned in for him. Liddell is Liddell, and there will always be people who tune in for him, but he’d looked terrible against Rashad and that drew something like 500,000 buys with big name fighters like Henderson and Franklin on the card.
Like you say though, nobody cared about Leites or Cote. The Griffin fight at 205 isn’t the main event of 101, so it’ll be a while before we have another look at Anderson’s drawing power, but the Griffin fight is fantastic exposure and should give him the kind of fight that makes him look like a vicious killing machine.
It was interesting that Wanderlei today said that after the franklin fight at 195, he’s going back to 205… after Dana White suggested Wanderlei vs Anderson in the near future… That’s interesting because the Bisping/Henderson winner has been promised a title shot… and one would think Maia/Marquardt is right there. Anderson’s said he wont fight Machida and isn’t interested in the LHW title as long as Machida has it.
Yeah, but it’s still Chuck Liddell. I think you’re unestimating the power of the casual fan. He still has the potential for knockout performances, and I still think he was the main fight on that card that drew people. I know the general concensus here was that the Silva vs. Leites fight was garbage and most people were intrigued by Liddell vs. Rua.
Wanderlei will fight Anderson for the right price, regardless of what he says.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
To say that Machida’s 600k is somehow more impressive than Silva’s 600k because Liddell was the big draw at 97 doesn’t give justice to how fully hyped the Serra/Hughes fight was. 12 episodes of TUF can do wonders for an otherwise mediocre matchup. Casual fans love that special-sushi-sauce crap they put up there.
This is true, hence why I think Machida vs. Rua will be a much more valid barometer. We didn’t take into account the video game release however either, and the games did come with a $10 discount of the PPV.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone know who Anderson Silva is anymore?
I’m not kidding about that. Seriously, I think it’s too early to predict whether Machida has drawing power. We’ll have to see him against Shogun to determine that, but he’ll definitely draw better than Silva. I’m sure of it. Silva seems to just not care as much anymore, and he has no sense of marketing what-so-ever. It’s too bad, cause he truly is a gifted fighter. I just wish he’d forget about being a mediocre boxer, and just focus on what he does best: destroying opponents. If he learned some English, it could go a long, long way. It’s all about connecting with an audience and fan base. I think most people tend to look for things familiar to them when it comes to celebrities or sports heroes. They have to be able to see someone, learn their background, hear what drives them and think, “Hey, I get it.” They may not understand exactly where Machida is coming from, but they understand the Karate mystique. I don’t think the wider audience in general understands who Silva is, or what he’s trying to do. To tell you the truth, I don’t think I know what he is trying to do either, despite having followed this sport for years.
I love me some Sexyama!
It’s a number of things:
1. The countdown program got Machida over big time.
2. Hughes and Serra was a big fight for casual fans.
3. Huge brand awareness based on the videogame. Check out “UFC” on google trends the week of the game. The brand awareness exploded with it.
This is a gigantic buyrate, can’t be underestimated. Mir-Lesnar did 600,000. They are on fire following the big run at the end of last year.
3. Huge brand awareness based on the videogame. Check out "UFC" on google trends the week of the game. The brand awareness exploded with it.
This is a really good point. I wonder how the videogame franchise will affect their buyrates going forward. Perhaps that exposure means even really weak cards will draw almost 500k buys (I guess this weekend will serve as an initial barometer for that, since it’s a European card). Or perhaps it will only lead to a very small increase over the long term, but a good bump every time a new iteration is released.
I haven’t tried out Undisputed yet so I don’t know how they are integrating it with the cards, but there is a ton of marketing potential by using Undisputed to educate fans about the fighters and the fights. A casual fan might only know a dozen fighters, but if he plays Undisputed regularly, he’ll get at least a passing knowledge with half of the UFC regulars.
I also wonder if getting $10 off the PPV buy was a huge factor.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 12, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
who is an actual name fighter
Rashad and Machida at the time of the fight were about the same name wise in my opinion.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
I’ve never heard anyone refer to Rashad as a draw, just because he was the champ doesn’t mean he automatically turns into a PPV king. I think the two main factors in the buyrate for this event were a) the LHW title fight between 2 undefeated fighters, and b) the huge boost the UFC has received since the end of last year with Lesnar/Couture and The Ultimate 2008. I’m not sure Hughes/Serra was as big a factor as a lot of people give it credit for, that hype has cooled down considerably since their days in TUF and neither of them have the kind of mystique that they did back then with Serra having recently beaten GSP and Hughes still being considered one of the top 2 or 3 at his weight back then. I’m sure it helped the buys but I think the main thing drawing people to this card was Rashad and Machida.
this is retarded
we cannot reliably measure a fighter’s popularity from a few PPV numbers because there are too many confounders as listed in this post.
What PPV numbers really tell us is the success of UFC marketing.

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