My family used to make me, my brother, and my cousin put on lederhosen so they could take pictures of us that they would use later to embarrass us in front of future wives and girlfriends.  What does this have to do with UFC 99?  Nothing, though it provides a nice segue to reminding you that UFC 99 starts at 3 PM ET/12 PM PT and you should get your bets in accordingly.  There's a good bit of value on this card.

Whip up some sauerkraut, put on the leather pants, and pick up some Bavarian brews this Saturday and get in the German spirit. 

It's been awhile since I've been this flummoxed over a line.  I'll start off by saying I have a unit-plus play on Franklin at -130 on the advice of people who's opinion I respect.  That said, I have a nagging notion in the back of my head that won't go away.

Wanderlei Silva's skills have seemed to diminish faster than David Ortiz without his 'roid cocktail.  He's noticably more plodding, less explosive, and seems to have lost the wolverine instinct that endeared him to the hearts of many lonely MMA fans during his run in Pride.  His frame appears much more blocky and compact than the lean (clean?) killing machine back in that heyday.

Rich Franklin, on the other hand, is coming off a razor-thin split decision that he believes he won.  Scoring objections aside, Rich has looked effective in his move to 205.  At the same time, Franklin reminds me of Keith Jardine when it comes to throwing awkward strikes.  Nothing looks like it comes naturally for Franklin, especially compared to someone like Mirko Filipovic, who throws each and every strike with an aesthetically pleasing fluidity.

The most common breakdown I've seen of this fight is that Silva's old and broken down, Franklin's in better physical condition, and he'll outpoint Wanderlei to a decision victory.

But I have some nagging suspicions.  One, Wanderlei Silva's downfall is a tad overstated.  Quinton Jackson knocked him into another dimension, but Quinton Jackson is a top 3 205er with serious KO power.  He lost to Chuck Liddell, but he was very competitive in that fight up until Chuck landed that spinning back fist.  (FightMetric had Chuck and Wandy splitting rounds 1 and 2 respectfully and convincingly.)  Same thing in the Henderson fight.  Competitive up until the KO.  And of course he steamrolled Keith Jardine at UFC 84.

Two, I can't get the memory of Anderson Silva's rhinoplasty jobs on Rich Franklin out of my head.  I'm not even sure how much of Franklin's problems with Anderson and the clinch rest on a technical malfunction or whether Rich has issues with being overwhelmed.

Likewise, any self-respecting MMA fan has the image of Wanderlei gently laying Rampage's unconscious body through the ropes in Pride burned into their subconscious.  At the same time, Silva's shown little preference for the clinch in any of his last four fights, so it might be a moot point all together.

Lastly, does Franklin have the power to knock out Wanderlei?  He's shown he has the physical tools to do it when he KO'd Nate Quarry, but Quarry was even more plodding than the current incarnation of Silva.  If I felt more certain that Franklin has the capability of landing a knockout or knockdown blow on the Brazilian, I'd feel that much more comfortable with my side.

So even though my gut tells me we'll see a Wanderlei Silva unafraid to pressure forward and unload, my head and the the heads of others tell me that the days of a dominating Axe Murderer are long past.  With my wishy-washy analysis, I can't in good faith recommend a bet on Franklin, but if you're blindly following my plays, hit him up.

-- photo via combatlifestyle.com

I'm sure the MMA media will wax analytic about this being a "big step up for Cain Velasquez" and how his "chin hasn't been tested like it will in this fight."  We might hear about Kongo's penchant for "improving every fight." (I don't see it.)

Let's break it down though.  Outside of nutshotting Mirko Filipovic, Cheick Kongo hasn't beat anyone of note in the UFC.  Carmelo Marrero outlasted him in a decision and he looked atrocious in his split decision loss to Heath Herring (despite which, is a fight I still believe he won).

In addition, while Kongo's known for being a kickboxer, he routinely works a grinding clinch game along the fence.

None of this meshes well with the skill set of Velasquez.  He may not have the size of Brock Lesnar, but Cain is legitimate heavyweight, is quick and athletic for the division, and has a serious wrestling game.  I don't foresee Kongo controlling Cain in the clinch (or even catching him in it for that matter) and his standup isn't fast or dynamic enough to batter Velasquez at a distance.

I also expect Velasquez will have no trouble dictating where the fight takes place.  Given the style matchup and Kongo's impotence on the floor, we should see Velasquez effectively mix up is striking and wrestling, put Kongo on his back, and control the fight on top.

If you can still hit Velasquez at -170/-180, I like a fairly sizable play on Cain.  Otherwise, I recommend a small play up to -250.

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.

It's nice the UFC's giving us six guaranteed fights instead of the usual five, but let's be honest: Saunders hasn't done anything to deserve a main card slot and Swick doesn't have the name to draw against a guy like Saunders.  All of this makes the attention this fight got on the Countdown show even more of a mystery to me.

That said, this is Swick's fight to lose.  After a rough transition from 185 to 170 against Josh Burkman, he looked much more effective against Marcus Davis and ran roughshod on Jonathon Goulet.  As for Saunders, it's hard to accurately gauge his worth.  He certainly didn't look impressive during his time on TUF, but he's undefeated in sanctioned UFC bouts and tenderized Brandon Wolff's skull at the Fight for the Troops event in December.

Because of that fight, I think Saunders is being overvalued here.  He's not going to be able to repeat that performance against Swick.  I like Swick for a solid play here.

So, Marcus Davis has trouble dealing with Mike Swick height and reach, almost gets KO'd by Paul Taylor, and scrapes by a victory against a Chris Lytle fighting anti-strategicly and he's chalked up as a 2-1 favorite over a taller, rangier, and competent Dan Hardy?

Certainly, Hardy still has some polish left.  Akihiro Gono exposed some striking holes in his defeat.  But he should still have enough for a guy like Marcus, who while one of the more technical boxers in the UFC, has shown he isn't immune to brawling at points.

I figured the line would open more at Davis -150/Hardy +120, so I think there's some good value here.  Take a multi-unit play on Hardy.

At UFC 78, Spencer Fisher lost a relatively one-sided decision to Frank Edgar.  At UFC 99, Fisher squares off with a comparable talent in Caol Uno.  Edgar's better in the standup (and how much better the UFC 78 version was compared to Uno is debatable), Uno has the edge in submission grappling, and they have similar wrestling chops.

With that in mind, I'm not sure why Fisher's such a heavy favorite.  This is another fight where I expected the line to be much closer to even, and it shocked me to see Uno open as a near 2-1 underdog.  However, unlike Bisping opening at +300 against Henderson or Anderson Silva opening at -275 against Leites, I'm not as confident in my handicap on this play and I don't plan on unloading like I usually would on a line I think is way off.

Still, I think Uno's worth a unit or two here.  The biggest concern is Fisher's power and Uno's chin may team up for a very painful dance of doom.  However, I expect Uno to take Fisher down, control him on top, and take a decision.

I'm not going to devote too much space to this one.  I want to play Cro Cop here, and I might have to if the line dips down near -350.  Yes, Cro Cop's had trouble in the cage; and, yes, Cro Cop hasn't shown as much against legitimate competition.  But Al-Turk is more Eddie Sanchez than Alistair Overeem.  Cro Cop's intimidating mystique may be null and void, but he should still handle guys like Al-Turk.