The UFC Light Heavyweight Division: How Will It Unfold?
With the recent signing of Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and "Sugar" Rashad Evans to fill the coaching roles on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter reality series on Spike and Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua expected to be confirmed for an October/November matchup, the UFC's Light Heavyweight division is now set up down the ranks for some big changes in the next six months.
First and foremost, the forementioned battles should produce a contender or potentially a rematch between previous foes in the Octagon. Stylistically, most fans would give Machida the nod over "Shogun" Rua as Rua's aggressive style doesn't bode well in a standup fight with Machida. The question mark remains whether or not Rua's technical ground tactics and takedowns can put Machida in danger. With a Machida victory, it's likely that the UFC will be looking for a Rampage win in December over Evans to produce a solid championship bout. If Evans happens to edge out Rampage, will the UFC give him a crack at retaining his title once again? I'm more inclined to believe somebody else will get a shot first before Evans will be thrust back into a title fight.
There are also the possibilities of a Rampage vs. Shogun matchup if both Evans and Machida win their respective bouts. It'll be a rematch from the PRIDE-era, and it almost has the same feel as the Wanderlei Silva/Rampage Jackson rivalry from back in the same era. Rua destroyed Jackson at the PRIDE 2005 Grand Prix with aggressive Muay Thai knees and soccer kicks. While a lot of fans try to discount Rua's win due to the soccer kicks, one thorough inspection of the bout points out Rampage's huge failures in trying to stop Rua's strong Muay Thai clinch. With Rua's resurging skillset, it could be a trip down memory lame for Rampage. Jackson, however, has improved substantially since 2005, and the build-up to such a fight would be incredible for the UFC.
Who will be next in the food chain to peek their head into the title contention role in the coming months? Keith Jardine will be taking on Thiago Silva at UFC 102, but a Jardine win will likely sit him just outside the title hunt while Thiago Silva will still need to prove himself against tougher competition. Forrest Griffin will take on Anderson Silva at UFC 101, and this matchup has the most intrigue because I believe with a win over Silva, Griffin will likely be the next contender in the 205 lb. division. While Silva is the Middleweight champion, his reputation as being unbeatable will likely boost Griffin's stock substantially much like his win over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. I couldn't see a scenario with Griffin winning in which the UFC doesn't push him into the limelight once again. An Anderson Silva victory could produce a matchup near the top, but will he actually fight Lyoto Machida? For the right money, it could be possible, but likely not until next year.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin takes place at UFC 99, but this matchup doesn't have any ramifications in the title picture. Silva is going to be a fighter that the UFC uses for show for the rest of his career unless he strings together a couple of big wins, and Franklin still needs to do the same to get into the hunt for the title.
On the outside looking in, the UFC has a couple of dark horse candidates who could be in the title hunt by early next year if their progression continues. Most notably, Luis Cane has yet to see a loss via a stoppage. His only loss came via disqualification due to an illegal knee to James Irvin. Cane hasn't put up the most impressive run in the UFC yet, but he'll likely see some better competition in the coming months. With wins over Cantwell, the disappointing Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, and wrestler Jason Lambert, it's time for the UFC to begin giving the talented Brazlian striker better fights. After all, Cane's skillset appeals to the casual fanbase.
What about Tito Ortiz? The name makes some fans cringe at the thought, but I'd be stupid to not mention the fact the UFC could bring him in and try to justify a high ranking due to the fact that he nearly beat Rashad Evans and put Machida in one instance of danger. Right now, it's unfathomable to think he's going to be in the UFC any time soon, but the UFC can't deny his drawing power.
With all of these divisional matchups, how will the next six months unfold? Rampage vs. Evans is one of the tougher fights to analyze. While Rampage is much more technical, my belief is that he's slower than Evans. Even if that's true, Rampage's power and toughness can put the pain on Evans. It should be a real war, and the build-up is only going to make it a true drawing matchup.
The rest of the division will see some interesting matchups unfold from the outcomes of the next few events. I don't think Thiago Silva has the chops to hang with Jardine right now. We've seen his looping punches in matchups with Drwal and Mendes, and he's luckily came out on top in those bouts after being caught. I could see the UFC trying to set up a Jardine vs. Griffin rematch if Griffin is pummeled by Anderson Silva, or pushing Rich Franklin further toward the top if he can win against Wanderlei Silva. Jardine, Griffin, Franklin would all be within the realm of matching up against one another.
The odd man out would likely be Franklin, but I'm wondering if the UFC would actually pit him against a guy like Cane or even Jon Jones. I'm more inclined to believe Wanderlei Silva would be the man taking on the new blood in the division, but with a loss to one of those dark horses, the UFC would more than likely try to retire the Brazilian much like they have with Chuck Liddell.
With the plethora of matchups taking place in the next six months, what matchups do you forsee the UFC bringing to the table as these next few events unfold? It's tough to see how the UFC will match these fighters up, especially with an eye for the marketability of the bout. One thing is for certain, the UFC's premier division won't be short of work. It should be an exciting journey to the end of the year for the 205'ers.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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19 comments
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Comments
After vera beats hamill, I think he gets matched up against thiago(if he wins)..
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 1, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that’s a good assessment. Vera vs. Thiago wouldn’t be a bad fight, but it’s definitely going to give Thiago problems. I’m more curious to see where Cane gets put.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 1, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would definitely want to see a cane/ franklin fight.. (if franklin beats wand) ..A win there would put that fighter in to the title mix IMO.
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 1, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't we make a sig bet if you're so confident in hamill..
Hamill is gonna come forward and strike with the striker and he’s gonna get koed for sure..
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 1, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How bout
If vera wins, you put “teh ufc suckz.. Pride iz mowr hardcorez! ..PS: weoweoweo is the best”
Then you have to have that sig until the next ufc card ends.. (I’m not that mean haha)
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 2, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I had to pick a LHW to beat Machida it would be Shogun. I like Machida but if Shogun wins and Rampage beats Evans we get to see Shogun vs Rampage.
And I think that could actually happen!? i think…… maybe.. probably not……..
by Cut-Paste on Jun 1, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Shogun vs. Rampage is in the making eventually. But I don’t see Shogun defeating Machida. A lot of people have made some outrageous claims lately regarding Shogun, specifically saying his striking was unreal back in PRIDE, and how much more technical he is nowadays. Most of that is untrue, and it doesn’t take a lot of legwork to go through video of Shogun back in his hayday or today to realize why he was so dominant. It wasn’t technical striking. It was raw aggression and his clinch. Catching Chuck with a looping blow after Chuck looped his own blow isn’t the definition of a newly technical fighter.
I think his ground tactics and clinch on the key to defeating Machida. I don’t think it will happen, but those are the areas in which he can win.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 1, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yep good analysis..
Totally agree.
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 1, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: If Machida puts Shogun on his back or gets into a ground scramble with him and there’s time on the clock, he’ll need to be very careful. Shogun’s jiu-jitsu is often overlooked.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jun 1, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and rec’d.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jun 1, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then again, so is Machida’s.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Jun 1, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But machida will only go there if shogun has been badly hurt
And at that time, he’ll probably be a white belt.
by Anton Tabuena on Jun 1, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think an early aggressive blitz by shogun will get him into a clinch or knocked down. And if he gets knocked down and Machida gets carried away trying to finish him, he could get caught in a submission or just gas out and not be able to move in and out so fast for the rest of the fight.
At the moment I don’t think Machida has big KO power, so he still needs to jump on them if he wants to finish the fight. That puts him in danger.
But now Machida is the champ he doesn’t need to be going in for the kill like a mad man.
so i think Machida would win, but i think Shogun has a better chance than Rampage….
by Cut-Paste on Jun 1, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so i think Machida would win, but i think Shogun has a better chance than Rampage….
Agreed
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 1, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tito Ortiz will never fight for the UFC again, not unless White gets hit by a bus.
by pr0cs on Jun 1, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for flying Jones Airways, home of the smooth take off and rough landing.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Jun 1, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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