UFC Referees and the Power Law
Without using Google or Wikipedia, name five American MMA referees.
If you're like 98% of the global population (ed. note: figure cannot be verified), you probably listed some combination of John McCarthy, Herb Dean, Steve Mazzagatti, Mario Yamasaki, Yves Lavigne, and Dan MIragliotta. Why is that?
Well, it can all be explained by the Power Law. Here's a layman's explanation from Advanced NFL Statistics:
Have you ever noticed how most of the productivity around your office seems to be accomplished by a minority of your co-workers? It’s no different in the NFL, or most anywhere else.
The power law is all around us, and is a fundamental property of natural organizations of all types. City sizes, for example, are distributed according to the power law. There are a few extremely large cities, more average sized cities, and very many smaller towns. Earthquake sizes, the structure of the Internet, stock market gains and losses, body mass indexes, gravity, social network connections, wealth distributions, and even Kevin Bacon movies all follow power law distributions. If you've ever heard people refer to the "fat tail" or the "long tail," this is what they're referring to.
The distribution of MMA referees in the UFC is no different. Our first example highlights this concept based on the amount of fights reffed by each official since the introduction of the Unifed Rules. (As always, click the picture to view the full-sized image.)
On the left hand side of the graph, we have the usual suspects - McCarthy, Dean, Mazzagatti, Yamasaki, Lavigne, and Miragliotta. The trend line represents the "power law" tendency of the data.
The next graph shows main event referees over the past 5 years.
That's right, only 8 referees have guided main event action (and to be fair, the fights Waugh and Rosenthal officiated were Fight Night or TUF Finales). Again, our core team dominates the list.
So, what does this all mean? We turn to Advanced NFL Stats again for a summary:
Power law distributions are noteworthy because they are the signatures of mature self-organizing complex systems. It’s also a feature of ‘rich-get-richer’ systems. So when we see power law distributions, we can make some qualitative inferences about the system we’re observing. For example, the BCS system is certainly a rich-get-richer organization. We can even quantify just how hierarchical it is and how difficult it is for second-tier teams to break into the elite.
Whether it be a sign of a strict meritocracy, advantageous networking, a lack of trust from athletic commissions, a combination of those three, or an entirely separate explanation, the data clearly shows that something is at play that keeps a refereeing elite working big fights.
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26 comments
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Comments
Stats rule, one of my favorite classes in college. Nice graphs; Excel? I like the histogram with line curve thrown in for good measure. I might do that on my next territory analysis PPT presentation :-)
by Fooshnickens on May 8, 2009 10:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s Excel.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on May 8, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post, love stats. Its gives us a serious insight into what (who) the UFC allows to ref main events.
I would also be curious as to the outcome of each fight they refereed.
by Riney on May 8, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No wonder Dana couldn't name many good referees
There’s only six. Of those, one is banned from the UFC, two have been mocked for frequent problems, and one was the guy he was chastising.
"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy
by thetakeover on May 8, 2009 11:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dana can't BAN a ref....
Big John is reffing again and if the commission chooses to have him ref UFC fights he will. He doesn’t have a license in Nevada currently, but he does have one in California. If the UFC goes there, there’s a good chance Big John will be reffing.
by Dexerion on May 9, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting – I’m not familiar with the power law, but it’s a fascinating-looking correlation. Great research.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by themachiavellian on May 8, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting conversation
This doesn’t really tell you much. It shows that the limited number of promotions (perhaps one in this example) have historically had favorite, or more likely, limited choice of referees. It will say something in 25 years when there are many promotions and many referees to choose from, if a trend like this exists.
Anytime you sort data to decrease monotonically like this, it will look like a ‘power law’. It is the exponent of the power law that allows you to deduce something about the underlying networking.
\Sorry…physicist.
by the exit on May 8, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
this is a good point
I was thinking that same thing, but didn’t have the expertise to articulate it. Good to have a physicist in the fight game.
"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy
by thetakeover on May 8, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't mean to shoot you down Mike
I should have clarified. This is a good start, and I am really interested in this type of analysis. Keep it up!
by the exit on May 8, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doing this for boxing refs would provide a great comparison.
by Jahbulon on May 9, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You got all the fights? Good job! I know recs won’t do much here, but I think it still deserves one.
by Anton Tabuena on May 8, 2009 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m missing 20. Somehow never got Edgar/Maynard from one of the fight nights. The others, unfortunately, are probably lost forever.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on May 8, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure you’ve put it up somewhere, but got a list of what you need?
by -Sam on May 9, 2009 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a list that brings it down to like 12-13 unknown refs. I left the list on my work computer, I will send it to you monday.
by szucconi on May 9, 2009 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I found someone who has all th ones we are missing in the sample.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLqear9kvD8
Don’t know if he would help us out. Bruz, from www.40ozMaltLiquor.com
He’s a member here.
by szucconi on May 9, 2009 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve got the same box sets. Unfortunately, the DVDs don’t include the majority (possibly even any) of the missing fights.
by rabrown on May 10, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate the BCS. Any comparison that casts it in a positive light can burn. Representative Barton’s bill is about the only good Republican idea in Congress these days.
by subo on May 8, 2009 11:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great article.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 9, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is pretty cool stuff, but not surprising....
The commissions want the best out there. When it comes to being a good ref experience is the driving factor. So as stated before the rich get richer.
by Dexerion on May 9, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The “power law” is a rip off of the “Pareto Principle”…
Some novices call it the 80-20 rule… but it is far more complex.
If one understands this and puts it to practice it carries untold powers.
by mmalogic on May 9, 2009 1:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I threw in Cecil Peoples in my quick list, just to spread the love.
by natyong on May 9, 2009 4:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll Rec
Always intirgued by STATS, the graph really nailed it!
Also want to add that Herb is probably my favorite ref in the game right now
all you gotta do is...
by imapimp08 on May 9, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i've forgiven him of the
Marquardt Knee and Elbow and that whole fight in general, but from my seat I thought Leites was getting up and sat down quick and the fight would have been over right there
all you gotta do is...
by imapimp08 on May 9, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This documents an empirical regularity, but I’m not sure how much further we can go here. The power law isn’t a “law” in the way social scientists think of laws, i.e. a law has explanatory power. It’s just a name for something we notice in the data.
The interesting exercise would be if we could use the refereeing data to shed some light on the mechanisms behind the power law.
by former tuf noob on May 9, 2009 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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