THQ's Future Rests on the UFC's Shoulders
THQ reported further terrible losses today. They need a huge hit to come back, and it looks like they are betting on the UFC game to turn things around:
"THQ needs a hit title to break back into profitability," said Colin Sebastian, a San Francisco-based analyst with Lazard Capital Markets LLC, who has a "hold" rating on the stock and doesn’t own it. The UFC game is "definitely being looked at by investors as an important milestone." "UFC 2009 Undisputed" with St-Pierre on the cover simulates the sport’s mix of jujitsu, karate, kickboxing and wrestling, with its choke holds and flying arm bars. Buxom ring girls and excited ringside announcers add color to lure men to stores. UFC’s male fan base is a main reason Todd Mitchell, a technology analyst with Kaufman Bros. in New York, projects the game will sell more than 2 million copies in nine months.
I'm no expert on the gaming industry, but I did read today that downloads of the UFC demo are in the top 1% of demo downloads according to Microsoft statistics. For those of you that follow the industry, will this be a hit? Is Mitchell underestimating or overestimating sales?
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I don’t know, but I can’t wait to buy this game, and would hate to see the engine scrapped after only one installment. With a little tweaking (and a whole bunch of feedback), the 2010 version could be absolutely ridiculous.
Grab the cage, low blow, ANNOUNCE SPLIT DECISIONS ONE CARD AT A TIME, etc
It wouldn’t be scrapped. It’s probably their most valuable asset, it would be acquired in Bankruptcy by another video game company or sold off before a bankruptcy.
The game will live on, the question is whether THQ will survive.
Currently the videogame industry is undergoing some major upheavals in their business models (i’ll have a post on this tomorrow) and THQ may be the first big publisher to go down.
The only what the UFC Undisputed 2009 could straight up save THQ is if it did Halo, Killzone, CoD or God of War numbers. That seems unlikely since it is a niche game (fighting) for a niche sport (UFC). I could be wrong but THQ is in some serious trouble and could be selling off assets such as developers or IPs very soon.
Basically the company has to cut itself in half to survive and in the need to generate enough cash on hand to endure their massive debts UFC may be a lucrative enough asset to sell if it doesnt sell well.
watchkalibrun.com
I frequent the Undisputed forums (it’s a shit hole but regardless of what people think, the developers do read the forums) and my honest opinion is that the estimate of 2 million copies sold is very do-able. Not only will all the hardcore MMA fans buy this just because it’s an MMA game, this appeals to the every day gamer, and the every day MMA fan. The game = hours of fun just for the demo, just ask anybody…they’ve beaten the crap out of Chuck and Shogun more times than they ever would if they had the full game…the amount of fun to be had is almost limitless.
THQ is on thin ice, but I think this title is going to make a brighter future for them. I started a “wishlist” on their forum that got stickied by the admin there, and he personally contacted me telling me the developers have the link to the thread and have been and will be looking there for all the input. If this game does well, they will be making it an on going series (this was confirmed in that same thread) and will most likely be making downloadable patches within the first couple of months of the games release.
THQ has a very solid foundation with this game, if they do HALF of the suggested improvements people have come up with…the game is going to be around for a very long time. Just to put into perspective, my Contemporary Issues teacher called me out and wants to fight on the game…I won’t be suprised if this game does of 2 million sales in 6 months.
THQ has a very solid foundation with this game, if they do HALF of the suggested improvements people have come up with…the game is going to be around for a very long time. I won’t be suprised if this game does of 2 million sales in 6 months.
I agree. I understand that THQ need a cash injection now, but the real success will be seen in future success of the title. Just like the FIFA and Madden football titles. Those titles started with a small fanbase and are now major earners.
"Like a ballet of violence clothed in fine Brazilian silk." ~ MMASuPreMaCy
I’ve seen my share of people bashing the game for a few key things it lacks…but I wonder if they remember what the first Madden or Fifa games looked like?
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Bought my copy in advance yesterday.
I will play my game beneath the spin light.
Absurd Meridian
by Eugene Schelfaut on May 6, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah. I think Brent is taking the XBox side, of which I will be crowned champion.
I will play my game beneath the spin light.
Absurd Meridian
by Eugene Schelfaut on May 6, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t know second place got acknowledged? hahaha Just playin, but I’ll be there for sure.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
can't wait....
till I upload my fighter, Jay “Swine Flu” Velez…
You know what would be a great idea?
If you guys could manage to stream the fights on Justin TV. Would be an awesome thing to do community wise but not sure everyone would have capture cards.
AWmusic - mp3 blog on independent music..
I actually haven’t seen if there is a spectator mode. If there is, setting up a stream would be pretty easy.
I poop rainbows.
It would be fun for the ones not participating
Hopefully it comes out on the PC….I`d buy a controller just for this game.
AWmusic - mp3 blog on independent music..
This game will do great.....
I don’t know what success in the video game buisness is, but I know that I’m considering buying a Xbox or PS3 just to play it. I know not every gamer like me is also a hard core MMA fan, but I think many many young males will get this game.
This could quite possibly be yet another of those “Madden” type games that has a new version every year. A company like THQ could probably live on a franchise like that alone.
Not A Hit Like WoW, Rock Band, Guitar Hero, Madden, Halo, Or Fight Night...
But a hit nonetheless. It will do well, but I am not sure if it will do the type of numbers THQ needs to survive.
Well, to be fair… it isn’t modeled to be like WoW. If it was subscription-based, it wouldn’t take off like WoW though.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on May 6, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it will rival Fight Night, if not this year, a potential sequal would definately be in the running. But you can’t really compare it to those games, they are all different beasts…for what it is, it will be big.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
If it hits these projected numbers it will beat fight night.
by Michael Rome on May 6, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I've a lot of people play
on good old Justin TV, with a lot of people watching others play the game as well. Interest has been pretty good with people who are not fans of the UFC.
However for it to succeed with casual fans or non-fans, it’ll be based on the reviews from the gaming publications. Critics play a large role in deciding to what level a game succeeds.
AWmusic - mp3 blog on independent music..
I think it’s going to get 7-8 out of 10 from most reviewers…some maybe 8.5 – 9, but I think those scores are enough to atleast get a rental out of people, and I would say 3/5 of those would lead to a purchase if online play is solid.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen a lot of people play*
sign. Always screw up my titles.
AWmusic - mp3 blog on independent music..
2 Million is reachable. Fight Night Round 3 has sold 2.86 million copies on 360 and PS3 combined as of January.
You reason out that the UFC is very popular right now, the demo being heavily downloaded, and positive reviews thus far. It could go on to sell very well. The one thing I’m surprised I haven’t seen yet is any TV commercials for it. The game is coming out in two weeks and nothing so far, not even on spike.
Games are most effectively marketed very near to the date of release. THQ doesn’t want to entice you to prepay (Gamestop does), they want you to run out and snag it.
I poop rainbows.
Yeah, Gamestop has gone balls to the wall…I haven’t entered one in the past month that didn’t have a huge banner or poster for the game.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
See: Related Fanposts on the right
I wrote about this (THQ’s troubles, the status of the UFC series, what they need to recover) about a month ago and was considering writing an article similar to this. The projected sales figure is too high, by my estimate. It could reach 2 million if it does big numbers in the UK, but that number is unlikely. Their expectation should be 1.2-1.5 million, with 2 million being top end. The reviews will go a long way in determining the sales projection between that range. If it nails 10’s in review scores (which, of course, they’ll say they expect), sure— it’ll sell 2-2.2 million. Based on the demo, I’d surmise that it’s going to land 8.5-9.0’s. That can feather either way, dependant on the replayability of the final product, the customizability of fighters/fight scenarios, the head-to-head balance (most critical) & online play (mostly how it handles input/lag). As it stands; based on the demo, I’d give it a 9.0. How the game plays with two human players will be crucial to the success of the game, both critically as well as economically.
I poop rainbows.
by Blackout612 on May 6, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A lot of people overlook the recent write up IGN (I think it was at least) did for career mode…and well, it seemed a little lackluster. Do I think that’ll hurt the scores? Not really, because of all the fun their is to be had in multiplayer.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Left out the fact that the guy writing pointed out about 3 things he disliked, and didn’t sound overall enthused about the career mode.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
And let’s be fair; some reviewers will not like it because they don’t understand MMA. It may not kill their review scores, but it could bring it down considerably. This title could see a uniquely radical range of scores, all told.
I poop rainbows.
My thoughts exactly.
It’ll probably get 8-9 from IGN and Gamespot…everything else is up in the air. But I have a feeling so long as the reviewers get some decent time playing multiplayer it won’t go below a 7 on average. I say that because the game itself can easily become a swing for the fences brawler and be exciting, and it can be a technical battle for those who want it to be so. Hopefully it appeals to everyone and is huge, I want to see a sequal, and I don’t share the thought that EA would do so much better than THQ…good sports games in general does not a good MMA game make.
by Kaleb Kelchner on May 6, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t even concede that EA makes good sports games in general, but I don’t like EA Sports, so there’s that. A 9.0 from Gamespot would be gigantic. My love for their reviewing is well doctumented (let’s not start with the Gerstmann shit, please) and a 9.0 from them is like a 10.0 anywhere else. We’ll see..
I poop rainbows.
You rang?
Gamespot…that site still around?
I trust IGN and Gametrailers reviews more. I’d say IGN gives it a 9.0 – 9.5
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 6, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Ever since...
The Gertsmann controversy, I stay away from Gamespot. I think IGN is pretty spot on with their reviews. I know 3 co-workers that do not know a lick of MMA saying that they liked the game.
He was disappointed in some of the CAF customization depth, Dana not looking like Dana, and the commentary in career mode. But, as for the gameplay, he said he had “a lot of fun” building up his character.
Nothing deal-breaking.
I will play my game beneath the spin light.
Absurd Meridian
by Eugene Schelfaut on May 6, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s changed a bit. It’s more of a standard now, like online play. This is the first new major sports series in a while.
I poop rainbows.
The demo has stayed in the top 10 on xbox live’s ‘most played’ list for 2 weeks in a row, that is a pretty big accomplishment considering full retail games are competing to stay on that list too. Games like Call of Duty, Gears of War, Halo 3, etc all regularly populate that list.
Those games have all sold in the millions (3-4+ million), so to compete with that, even if it’s a free demo, is a really good sign.
I have no doubt within a 9 month timeframe that 2 million is possible. A lot will depend on the support of the game past the release date (updates, bug fixes, downloadable content like fighters, locations, etc). We know next to nothing about the online portion which will really influence the game’s “Legs” in terms of sales.
I hope it does well, it has great potential to help widen the audience for MMA.
I think.....
that the Career Mode will make/break the game……
And......
THQI stock is up a lot. About 20%. today from trading last night. Maybe Rome is affecting the market.
Pre-Sale is Key
I have a good buddy who works as a Brand Manager at EA Sports here in Vancouver, Canada, and he said to me the key to gauge the success of any new video game is pre-sale. In his experience, he can’t believe how uncanny it is that pre-sale translates into the game being a hit or not. A very, very strong indicator as to what direction sales of the game takes.
From the strong contingent of people pre-buying this game, I think THQ has a success.

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