How Matt Serra Can Defeat Matt Hughes
by Luke Thomas on May 6, 2009 1:52 PM EDT
in MMA News
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It's by no means a guarantee, but I agree with the Serra camp's strategy headed into this fight:
"We’ve been in training camp about two months now. At first, we just worked on conditioning. He feels great, and his back feels great," Longo said. "That was (originally) a concern. Between that, he’s doing a lot of sparring and a lot of wrestling. He’s doing more wrestling than I’ve ever seen him do."
The key to Serra’s game plan is no mystery -- he’ll have to keep Hughes from being Hughes, the grappling powerhouse that ruled the division through a menacing combination of takedowns and physical dominance.
...
In the first St. Pierre match, Serra unleashed a series of big right hands that ended the Canadian’s reign in his first defense. It wasn’t quite Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson, but the stunning one-sidedness of it was a sobering reminder of what a well-placed shot can do to level the mixed martial arts playing field.
"Even with the first GSP fight, I don’t think anybody remotely thought Matt would stand with him," Longo said. "But he likes to bang. He’s got the power. To beat Hughes, he’s got to stuff a couple of takedowns. He’ll win if his takedown defense is where we think it’s gonna be."
When I interviewed Serra on MMA Nation he also told me he was working a lot of boxing and a lot of wrestling in this camp. The trick for Serra is to defend the takedown when possible, throw zero kicks, force exchanges with Hughes to punish him standing and use as dynamic a guard as possible underneath to neutralize any passing or GNP. Beyond that, I actually think this favors Serra the longer the fight goes as Serra has the clear advantage on the feet both in being able to put usable combinations together and power. Also, the chance of catching Hughes in submission is not particularly good even in the early going (Charuto's triangle is not something I see Serra being able to replicate except to use the dynamic guard and sub attempts to slow Hughes' roll). GSP was dropped with a shot to the back of the head, but Serra does possess the power to hurt Hughes enough to force takedowns. If Serra can either deny Hughes a lot of his takedowns while doing damage on the feet or at least force stand-ups by neutralizing Hughes on the ground, Serra has a very decent chance of winning on the 23rd.
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Sprawl and brawl!!!
Luckily for Serra, Hughes isn’t particularly interested in kicking or fluid with his standup. He could definitely win this fight if he hurts Hughes with power punches and takes some steam off of those takedowns.
Punch him in the back of the head, Serra.
by Derek Suboticki on May 6, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see Serra being able to defend the legandary takedowns of Hughes. Once he gets slammed, that’s all she wrote.
Hughes by TKO round 2.
Serras going down, unfortunately. He needs to move down to 155 if he still can.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 6, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Serra's too old
The guy won the WW belt, he’s earned Senior Tour status at what ever weight he wants to fight at.
Why swim with the sharks at LW for no money fights.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Probably his last fight.
The guy can’t stay healthy with his lifestyle, and it’s pretty obvious he’d rather just teach at his school, which is pretty lucrative after his turn on TUF as both a winner and a coach.
He fought once in 08, once in 07, and once in 06 (not counting in-house TUF bouts). Pretty obvious he’s not motivated anymore.
Prediction: Goes out in this one. Gets taken down fast. Pounded out in the first round. Retires.
Hughes convinces himself the win means something, and sticks around for a few more fights before realizing he’s shot as well, and too one-dimensional for the modern welterweight division.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on May 6, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Legendary?
Really man? You have to put “the old Hughes” into perspective. Back than, nobody really focused on the takedown aspect of mma. Now fighters are well rounded in every aspect. Especially wrestling, dont believe me? Look at the Alves-Hughes fight. GSP-Hughes, both 2nd and third time around. Hughes use to be a great wrestler, and maybe still might be..but, he is a one trick pony. It doesn’t make his game plan hard to figure out. He has 0 stand up capability, and 0 knockout power to acommpany that, and as they say misery loves company. I dont see Hughes having a chance in this fight.
One Problem...
When it comes to takedown defense, Serra isn’t Alves or GSP- not even close. Being a one trick pony is effective when the other fighter can’t stop the one trick.
by BilboMcFonzie on May 6, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Uriel’s on the money. Hughes is not going to submit Serra, and Serra can do a hell alot more off his back and standing up than Hughes. Hughes gameplan is to lay n pray, but that’s based on effective takedowns. If Matt Serra takes Hughes down, you’ll eat your words.
Serra nearly KO’d Parisyan in their fight with one punch too. The guy has power, but I still find it hard to believe that he’s going to stop Hughes’s takedowns with any regularity. This probably is the right strategy for him (I’m a little curious about how it’s changed over the course of the last year and a half), but I don’t see him being able to actually pull it off.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
I think Matt Serra should get a couple of takedowns a round himself. As long asHughes is on his back, he’s ineffective.
How?
From the clinch? Hughes is much bigger and stronger than him, and I hardly see Serra shooting a single or a double on Hughes.
I see no way Serra can take Hughes down, much less get top position.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on May 6, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
jui jitsu!
you must not be a jui jitsu practitioner..
Serra may be a black belt in BJJ...
but Hughes has submitted almost as many people as Serra has fought. Serra has had 14 pro fights with only 4 submissions. Hughes has had 48 pro fights with 12 submissions via sub tech and 6 submissions due to strikes. Serra doesn’t stand a chance.
9 of those 12 were in the first round.
Serra hasn’t submitted anyone since March of ’02 and nobody relevant.
How many world class black belts has Hughes submitted? How many people has Hughes KO"d standing up? How may times has Hughes been subbed? Don’t kid yourself Serra has the edge in the submission game. His BJJ has pretty much neutralized everyones wrestling or Judo that he’s fought, with the exception of GSP. This is going to a desision, guaranteed. What the results will be is anyone’s guess.
He's going to jiu jitsu him to the ground?
Even in jiu jitsu, I think you either have to clinch or shoot on a guy to take him down. Unless you pull guard. And if Serra is dumb enough to pull guard on Hughes, he deserves what happens next.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on May 6, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he was talking about Serra doing a jiu jitsu mind trick on him and willing him to the ground.
OMFG! I was jiu jitsued!
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on May 6, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
That's kind of an insulting way to put it
“GSP was dropped with a shot to the back of the head…”
Really? I know that’s the conventional wisdom, but it’s more complicated than that.
“…but Serra does possess the power to hurt Hughes enough to force takedowns.”
So it’s luck and brute strength that Serra has going for him? I remember that fight being won with skill.
GSP was getting dominated on the feet with numerous body blows when he tried to duck a punch and got wobbled further by an accidental blow to the head. But he didn’t go down until Matt Serra landed two more good shots to the face. GSP got up again, two more punches to the face and GSP was back down. GSP goes for a leg, gets up and is AGAIN sent to the canvas with two good shots to the head. Serra swarms him and GSP tries briefly to fight back before covering up and almost appears to be trying to tap as he rolls under Big John.
The way you put it makes it sound as though Serra was nothing but lucky. Nobody can say what would have happened if GSP hadn’t tried to put himself by leaning into a punch (not a great move, no?), but if the fight had stayed standing, Serra was doing just about all of the damage (minus that one good shot to the face about a minute in, I think).
Because GSP went back, trained his ass off, and dominated Serra in the second fight, the conventional wisdom has been that Serra was never all that good. Add to that the continually growing list of excuses that came out of GSP’s camp (and his mouth), and it seems like Serra never even won that fight.
But he did – on that day he was the better fighter.
And I know you know all of this, Luke – I’m just saying that phrasing it that way gives the wrong impression.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
A long winded attempted justification that doesn’t disprove the initial statement. GSP was done after his equilibrium was wrecked with the shot to the head. GSP ducked slightly and got a clubbing forearm to the base of the skull/brain stem. I don’t believe it was the drastic strategic error you claim, but perhaps it was poor use of head movement.
There was no domination on either side before that. Serra landed a body shot or 2, GSP landed a couple shots. Nothing significant happenned until the shot to the back of the head.
GSP was off that night, his striking was quite sloppy. Even still, on most nights he still would’ve beaten Serra.
But since then he has been focused and sharp for every fight. So it really has been a blessing in disguise.
I think that’s just saying it like it is. GSP was dropped with a shot to the back of the head. Sure some other stuff happened, but the back of the head accident is what made all of the ensuing shots possible. No one’s trying to take anything away from him. I was impressed by Serra’s aggression afterwards. He didn’t let up, it was exciting to see, but that hit was everything in that fight. Nothing happened before it that showed Serra was dominating the stand-up.
Count me as one of the three
Serra beat that ass. I’m sorry you don’t like it, but it’s a fact. In your mind, GSP would have beaten him the other 364 nights of the year, but the night he faced him he got beat down. Accept it.
Serra was the better fighter that night, and quite frankly, by diminishing Serra, you’re throwing GSP under the bus for losing to him.
Oh I sure hope so. I’ve picked Serra, but to be honest I haven’t seen him fight that many times. I just think he’s got what it takes.
He also seems more confident. Hughes has a sort of fake confidence that belies him. This talk about Thiago and rematching GSP makes me wonder about Hughes. Serra is a good fighter.
"Serra is a good fighter"
That is a funny line. If Serra had not caught GSP we would not even be talking about this. These are two back of their career fighters, but one of them (Hughes) has been way more dominant in his area of strength.
Arguing on the internet is like being in the special olympics, even when you win you are still retarded.
It has a lot more to do with it than that I think. Why is “Serra is a good fighter” a funny line? It’s not true? The guy has fought all sorts of premium talent in the UFC, and never has any of those fights, win or lose, been a complete walkover until his second fight with GSP. He beat Lytle, he took Karo to decision. Not sure about his other fights, but saying that Serra is a good fighter is an understatement to say the least.
But your “if” is probably the funniest word. If Serra hadn’t won the Ultimate Fighter we wouldn’t be talking about it either. If he didn’t get a black belt in BJJ we wouldn’t be talking about it. If Matt Hughes had beaten GSP in their 3rd match we wouldn’t be talking about it. If GSP had ducked the punch properly, if GSP hadn’t taken his vitamins for the last 3 months…etc etc. You can say almost anything you want if you preface it with “if”.
Since when does catching one fighter translate to a guy being known for power?
Serra has always been a ground/bjj fighter & other than the GSP KO, has not done anything with his hands. He may have the edge over Hughes, but the odds of this becoming a standup war are not great. Hughes is going to take Serra down, avoid sub attempts & pound him out.
Arguing on the internet is like being in the special olympics, even when you win you are still retarded.
Well, he’s not known for power, which is why I didn’t say that. I said he’s got good power, something he’s developed over the last few years although used infrequently partly due to his propensity for BJJ and on-the-job striking improvement. Is there a huge body of work to demonstrate this? No. You can’t look to the Menjivar or Curran fights for evidence, but you can look at how he fared early in the first GSP fight, his flooring of Karo Parisyan, testimonials from sparring partners and coaches and what appears to be a new skill set he didn’t have early in his career.
I don’t think Serra has power like Liddell or Melvin Manhoef, but Hughes doesn’t take punishment standing very well even from fighters without big power (Trigg hit Hughes in the groin, but his short jabs frazzled Hughes as well). Serra isn’t going to be dropping the competition likes its going out of style, but he’s got enough power to make a lot of guys pay and particularly converted wrestlers who don’t like striking.
I wasn't directing my comment at your post Luke.
Rather to some others on here. Serra may very well hit hard, but Trigg is bigger than Serra so I do not see how that relates. Maybe I am severely underestimating Serra, but Hughes is not known for getting KO’d either. He eats some punches against good fighters, but he is not going to stand too much with Serra I don’t think.
Arguing on the internet is like being in the special olympics, even when you win you are still retarded.
I think the comment regarding his power is legitimate, but not proven. We can say he has power, but he’s not a finisher. He has the physique and strength, but technically, I don’t think it results in knockout finishing abilities.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on May 6, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Hughes is going go get a takedown sometime in the first two rounds and he’ll be too strong for Serra. Eventually he’ll get Serra on his stomach, flatten him out, and start dropping bombs to both sides of Serra’s dome. I don’t care much for either guy, and I don’t really care who wins, but somehow everytime I imagine this fight that’s the way I see it ending. I’m looking forward to it because of all the animosity, but I just don’t see Serra actually being able to stop the takedowns consistently and I don’t see him being able to handle Hughes once the ground and pound starts.
Maybe we’ll get lucky and they’ll have one of those fluke double knockouts.
Could be a snoozer.
Hughes will take Serra down at will, but Serra’s defense will be enough to keep him in his guard. Serra will want to keep it standing and Hughes has 0 standup.
I don’t see a sub from either of them….bet on a TKO or Decision.
Hughes GNP from the top or Serra drops him.
Maybe
Serra should take Hughes advice from TUF 4, as soon as the bell sounds Serra should put one hand on the mat so Hughes can’t kick him.
Hughes takes this one.
I’m not a huge fan of either, but I can’t see Serra stopping Hughes’ takedown attempts. He may stop one, but eventually Hughes will get him down and pound him out. Maybe a decision victory. I know these two hate each other, but I’ve long lost any desire to see these guys fight each other. Maybe I’ll feel different closer to fight time. Hopefully there will be some funny trash talk.
I love me some Sexyama!
Dude there’s been some funny trash talk already. Hughes said that his wife wanted blood, and then specified that his wife wanted to see Matt Serra’s blood just in case we were thoroughly confused about why Matt Hughes’ wife wanted to see Matt’s blood.
I actually wasn’t confused, as I could see why Matt’s wife would want to see his blood as well as Serra’s blood.
I just do not see the man who Shonie Carter almost beat twice,
beating Matt Hughes. I do not personally care for either of these guys on a personal level, but I respect Hughes too much as a fighter to think Serra can stop him. The only shot I would give Serra is if Hughes goes crazy & only stands with him for three rounds & does not take him down. That being said, Hughes will not stand very much with him at all.
Arguing on the internet is like being in the special olympics, even when you win you are still retarded.
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