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Under the Radar: Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes at UFC 98

2563985665_67f4c4a656_mediumThe big fight drawing much of the media attention up to this point preceding UFC 98 has been Lyoto Machida vs. Rashad Evans. It's not only a superfight among casual fans, but it has the qualities that hardcore fans love. It'll have strategy, great technical striking, and the potential to be an all-out war if it goes the distance. Two other top qualities bouts remain on the card however in Sean Sherk vs. Frankie Edgar and... Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes.

While we're still a few weeks out from the event, fans have generally argued the gameplanning involved in the Machida-Evans bout. Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes hasn't came up as much as I had hoped following UFC 97, but it may very well be a sleeper that could produce a great fight.

What makes this fight so great at this very moment in both Matt Serra and Matt Hughes' career? It's very intriguing due to the idea that Matt Hughes' age and arguable falloff in his skills in the cage will be going up against a deceptively powerful jiu-jitsu grappler with heavy hands who hasn't really instilled confidence in fans to be an overwhelming favorite in any fight. Making this even more interesting is their style matchup.

Serra relies heavily on his hands for the surprise stunning blow, but is very well versed on the floor. In fact, there have been a multitude of coaches and trainers in the past that have touted Serra's jiu-jitsu as being formidable due to his strength combined with his knowledge. While not quite filling the role as a power grappler, Serra also has the strength to stun opponents on the feet as evident in his huge upset win over Georges St. Pierre.

Hughes has a legacy of being a powerful wrestler who uses his strength to keep opponents on the floor, pound them into a pulp, and subsequently finish them off or cause enough concern in which his opponents put themselves in terrible positions. His power has been a staple of his skillset, and a lot of fans have attributed his age as to the reason he's had problems in recent bouts.

Hughes may not be able to simply overpower Serra on the floor, and he'll likely have to tread lightly in where he positions himself in order to avoid Serra's jiu-jitsu. Serra hasn't been deemed some kind of explosive striker nor is he known for being any kind of finisher on his feet. Hughes doesn't have great strking either, but his takedown ability to counter the striker are well-known. In terms of styles, this could be a small chess match on the floor coupled with some aggressive striking on the feet to grab an edge.

I'm excited about this matchup for a few reasons. Most notably, I think it will tell us something significant about each fighter no matter what the outcome is. Hughes may see a glimmer of hope in trying to vie for relevance once again at the top of the division with a win, but he may also see a loss as a sign that the times have passed him. A Serra win will likely re-affirm the idea in his mind that he belongs in the title picture while a loss will put him either out of the UFC or one step away from being canned. Both fighters stand to gain some relevance in the division's upper echelon with a win, but both guys could lose a lot with a crushing loss. This fight potentially has some huge impact on each fighter's career.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

Comment 42 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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I agree.

I am looking forward to the Hughes/Serra fight more than any other on the card. I think this will be a deciding fight for both fighters careers.

by Wookalarman on May 4, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Hasn’t Serra said that he’s gonna drop to 155 lbs. after this fight, win or lose?

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on May 4, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Please let this be true.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on May 4, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

That would be sick. Serra-Griffin for starters

by Derek Suboticki on May 4, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Forrest would take it.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on May 4, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

;-)

I was kidding.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on May 4, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d take Iron Mike over Serra any day. He still has that knock-out power.

by Dooda on May 5, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought I read a recent interview

in which Serra said that he can’t make the cut to 155 anymore, and would have to stay at 170 despite being under-sized.

by Scott Haber on May 4, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I’d be a bit surprised if he could make 155 these days. He’s bulked up, and always had some bulk to him. He’d be great at 155, but I wonder if the cut would really hurt him in the end.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on May 4, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

You’re probably right. Somebody mentioned it in comments of another post, so I figured I’d bring it up.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on May 4, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’s flip-flopped in a couple of interviews I’ve read. I think the cut would be harder and he’d definitely have to shed a bit of muscle mass, but not a ton. If he could make the cut he’d be much better at 155.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on May 4, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's never been able to make 155.

I own the UFC 36 dvd, and he weighed in at 16(2)? against Kelly Dullanty. And he looked very thin at that point in time. Serra would have to lose pure muscle to make 155.

Supporting all Las Vegas MMA.

'09 is the year of the FW's.

by ElliotMatheny on May 5, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Serra has made 155

Quite a few times.

Creator of the FightMatrix rating system.

by JCS_FM on May 5, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I have yet to see a fight of his...

where he has made ’55.

Whether or not it’s due to lack of motivation, or inability to make the weight is a bit of an unknown, but Serra is definitely too small for 170. He’d be much better off at LW.

Supporting all Las Vegas MMA.

'09 is the year of the FW's.

by ElliotMatheny on May 5, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, he’s made 155 before, but today… I don’t know if he can.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on May 5, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am excited for this fight, I am not really surprised though that it hasn’t been talked about since this was supposed to over a year ago.

by The Legend on May 4, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know that Hughes’ skills have diminished, so much as, the sport has evolved past him. The guys at 170 are big, strong, quick and skilled these days, whereas Hughes is using the same skills he had years ago. Wrestling, a few basic subs and power got him to the top, but I think it isn’t enough anymore.

Serra is undersized, but has power in his hands. I’m picking him by KO.

IMO, the winner of this fight doesn’t gain much ground, but the loser will be in a rut for sure.

If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.

by BJJDenver on May 4, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m not sure if being number 3 in a division means that the sport has moved passed you. He’s been dominated by GSP, and beaten by a middleweight Alves.

I look for him to be in his regular, crucifix form.

Spinning out solid gold, like Rumpelstiltskin.

by Heenan on May 4, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

What’s not to be serious about? I don’t want to be repetitive, but he’s lost 2 fights in a row. One to the current champ, and one who missed weight. I wouldn’t be embarrassed to be beaten by either of those guys.

He still has several interesting fights at WW.

Spinning out solid gold, like Rumpelstiltskin.

by Heenan on May 5, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hughes is ranked #5 and Serra is ranked #11.

by Wookalarman on May 5, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

And rec’d. This fight is a little under the radar for sure.

If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.

by BJJDenver on May 4, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions  

I watched some old ADCC footage...

Matt Serra looked pretty slick and I got to see a side of his game that I hadn’t seen, he’s not so much an underdog to me anymore but I still think Hughes takes it.

BJJDenver, how was Brazil?

by Gunslinger20 on May 5, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Freakin’ amazing! Thanks for asking.

If anyone is interested, I will be happy to write a fanpost about training at Gracie Barra and Gordo’s and attending a Brazilian MMA event. Just let me know.

AND…I made it back without the swine flu!

If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.

by BJJDenver on May 5, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Please do this. It seems everyone I know is going to train in Brasil lately and I feel left out.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on May 5, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely write a fanpost.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on May 5, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good to hear man

I’d like to hear about it….. you get to roll w/ Babalu? lol

by Gunslinger20 on May 5, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

My god, why wouldn’t you write a post? Pics, too, if you got ’em.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on May 5, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well done

and bravo.

Most analysis (and I use the word ‘most’ cautiously, since, as you stated, there hasn’t been much talk) on this bout have been particularly partial. Well played, sir.

by TheConcreteKid on May 4, 2009 4:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Seriously...

Who doesn’t like a good grudge match? (not counting fake stuff like Evans/Ortiz)

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by Scott C. Broussard on May 4, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions  

How do you figure Serra could be cut with a loss in this fight. Theres no chance of that he’s lost once since he came back on tuf, and ktfo the best 170er in the world! Good post otherwise but that statement was so inaccurate i laughed when i read it.

by marcianoMMA on May 4, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Easy… he’s been out of the limelight for a long time for starters. He’s also never been impressive in terms of style. His knockout of GSP may be his saving grace, but every fight is a battle for him. Unless he’s substantially improved his finishing capabilities, I could definitely see Serra on the verge if he loses to Hughes, and then drops another bout.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on May 5, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Leland…..I’m a little surprised @ your positive spin on this fight. I loved Serra the person, from the show (I’m a New Yorker too). And I hate Hughes’ pompous, arrogant attitude. But I fully expect Hughes (after being pummeled on the feet by Alves & GSP) to take Serra down & grind him out just like the Hughes / Lytle fight. Serra will not be strong enough to stop it & his short limbs will not catch Hughes in any subs. As much as I want to see Serra STOP Hughes…..I just don’t see it happening. Besides that, I think the sport has passed both guys by. No shame in that. But bigger, better & more importantly, younger athletes are coming in & cross-training with better coaches & training partners. The main event has me excited but the other fights are a distant 2nd. Sherk fight should be good & hopefully, we’ll get to see a couple from the undercard. I hope Dan Miller finishes Sonnen as well.

by frickshun on May 4, 2009 10:53 PM EDT reply actions  

The positive spin is that I think this is a sleeper fight that a lot of people are overlooking on the card. EVERYONE is up on Machida-Evans, but I haven’t heard much talk regarding Serra-Hughes. It’s a solid fight style wise.

I think it’s very tough to pick it at this point considering Hughes’ past fights, but I think Hughes has the edge.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on May 5, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I got Serra in this one. I don’t know why, I just think he’s got what it takes to beat Hughes and stay in the UFC.

by Dooda on May 5, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions  

I honestly have no idea who to pick in this fight.

It’s a real pick- em. I think that Hughes has lost a step, but Serra looked extremely unspectacular in his last fight as well.

I think standing, Serra has a pretty good advantage. However, Serra doesn’t exactly have fantastic takedown defense, and if Hughes gets on top of him, I doubt Serra will be able to sub him from his back, and I see Hughes grinding out a decision.

Supporting all Las Vegas MMA.

'09 is the year of the FW's.

by ElliotMatheny on May 5, 2009 3:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Nah

I wish I shared your enthusiasm. For all intents and purposes, this is Hughes Swan Song. He has repeatedly stated that the end is near and has nothing to prove after this. Serra has been bogged down by injuries and might want to call it a career as well.

I don’t think either fighter has their heart in it at this point, the action in the cage may just be perfunctory.

Having said that, I hope i’m wrong.

The potential for a good matchup is always there, but i’m trying to be realistic.

by cyke on May 5, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions  

From what I’ve heard from people at Hughes’ camp, this won’t be his last fight, and that Hughes wants 2 or 3 more after the Serra fight. FWIW.

by Hardcharger on May 5, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has accomplished a lot in this sport & hopefully held onto his money. After seeing Hughes take some serious beatings from GSP & Alves, I would rather see him retire than fights meaningless fights that dont lead back to the top. I see him in the same vein as Hatton, Liddell, Barrera & Morales. Guys that were @ the top but are now past their prime. What more is there to do for a fierce competitor that knows deep down he won’t get back on top? Take your money & split!

by frickshun on May 5, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have you read some of the things Hughes has been saying? While kind of delusional to me, he wants rematches with Alves and GSP. Alves, he might have a chance, but GSP, I think it might end quicker.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on May 5, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t forget his insane comments about fighting Anderson Silva..

by sadface on May 5, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

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