Who Will End the Lyoto Machida Era in the UFC? Randy Couture? Shogun Rua? Rampage Jackson? Jon Jones? Anderson Silva?
by Kid Nate on May 25, 2009 5:04 PM EDT
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Within seconds of Lyoto Machida taking the belt, UFC color man Joe Rogan declared it the "Machida Era."
The pedestal is pretty dang high already. Let's take a look and see who might knock him off it.
Jake Rossen likes Randy Couture's chances:
Laugh all you want, but if Couture gets inside, Machida is going for a ride. Couture’s retirement fight if he fails in another heavyweight title bid, but only if Machida agrees to do it at heavyweight. (Guy’s gonna be 46 soon. Cut him some slack.)
The premise here is that Tito did manage to ding Machida in the clinch a couple of times. Dirty boxing greco king Randy Couture could surely do some damage on the inside -- IF he can get there.
Michael David Smith makes a list of ten fighters but gives the most attention to Shogun:
Of the fighters who might actually challenge Machida in the not-too-distant future, I like Shogun's chances the best. He's a dynamic striker who's quick enough to move in and out against Machida, and although he only has one career win by submission, he can win a fight on the ground if he needs to. I think Shogun-Machida is a fight we might very well see in 2010, and it's a fight every fan would love.
Color me skeptical. Shogun's aggressive muy thai based striking falls right into Machida's game. If Shogun chases Machida, he'll pay and I don't see him having an answer for the Dragon's shotokan attack.
On the other hand, Shogun moves very well, avoids the kind of footwork errors that bedevil Rashad Evans and his capoeira studies provide Rua with his own bag of unconventional tricks.
It would seem that #1 contender Quinton "Rampage" Jackson is already being written off by the cognoscenti. I think that's a mistake. His boxing game is several steps beyond Evans'. Despite not having Evans' speed or reflexes, Jackson's footwork is sound and his power and combination punching make him a threat to anyone. Evans caught Machida a couple of times close to the cage with hooks that would have been an entirely more dangerous proposition coming from the powerful Jackson.
And let's not forget Rampage's seemingly abandoned wrestling roots. Machida might just be the kind of dangerous opponent who forces Quinton back to his roots. I'd likely pick Machida to win, but Rampage shouldn't be discounted.
Sergio Non has a couple of ideas:
It could take a style as idiosyncratic as Machida's to beat him. Jardine might have a chance with his seemingly rhythmless striking. With a lot more seasoning, Jon Jones and his blend of Greco-Roman throws and flashy strikes might give Machida pause.
I'm interested in the Jardine angle, provided he could string together enough wins to merit a title shot. With his leg kicks, extremely awkward style, wide stance and solid track record against counter-strikers he would seem to present as credible a challenge to Machida as anyone.
MDS also tacks a Jones as a dark horse to the bottom of his list:
Jon Jones: Obviously, the 21-year-old Jones has a long way to go before the UFC would even think of giving him a title shot. But when I picture the type of fighter who could give Machida trouble, I picture a superior athlete with a wrestling base who's good at taking his opponent down. That pretty well describes Jones, who showed off some of the best throws I've ever seen in his UFC 94 win over Stephan Bonnar.
Jones has the youth and talent to improve dramatically over the 24 months or so it would take him to earn a title shot. Obviously Machida might have joined the ranks of ex-champions by that point but the matchup does intrigue. Not least of all because of Jones' self-taught unconventional striking style that incorporates wild Tai Kwon Do and Kung Fu moves that he apparently picked up from watching TV and movies.
IMO, Jones needs to find an instructor who can marshal his improvisational standup style into a coherent framework. He's got the physical gifts. He's young enough to learn and most importantly he's got a brain like a sponge and is an avid student of the game. But unless he's a once in a generation martial arts genius, he won't be able to cobble together a striking style on his own that will be efficient enough to beat Machida
MDS also raises and then dismisses Anderson Silva as a possibility due to his friendship with Machida. I think he's a bit hasty there. Silva's mastery of muay thai, his own counter-striking style, his long reach, immaculate footwork make him the perfect opponent for Machida.
If both men keep winning, I think the fans should demand the fight and Dana White should twist arms and promise vast fortunes to make the fight happen.
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I’m not buying into the Couture and Shogun arguments, either. Jon Jones is definitely interesting, but he needs some more time. I would rank Rampage at the top of likely competitors. At some point someone has to show something that’s effective against Machida. So far, there has been close to nothing in the way of tactics which have yielded fruit. Machida isn’t just a fighter, he’s his own fighting style, one that’s not easily emulated.
Not buying Couture either, why would Machida move up in weight when he just won the belt in his class? Shogun maybe, just because I think the old Shogun might have the quickness to cause him trouble. And I agree Rampage should be at the top of the list. One thing I don’t see happening:
If both men keep winning, I think the fans should demand the fight and Dana White should twist arms and promise vast fortunes to make the fight happen.
This fight won’t be happening anytime soon. While Machida has worked hard to shed the “boring” tag he still is not a name that resonates with the casual viewer. And after his last 2 fights Silva isn’t the kind of fighter that excites anyone but the most hardcore fans (and even then I believe we are somewhat skeptical of him for the time being). Machida needs a couple more fights to build his name and Anderson needs a top-notch performance against Forrest to make this fight happen, Dana isn’t gonna promise these guys a million dollar bonus for a fight that might not break 500K PPV buys.
It would be Randy moving down. I think he has the best chance of anyone right now…nobody pointing it out but Machida’s mouth fell open second round. His cardio is suspect, and maybe Randy is the guy to wear him down.
I would pick Machida over everyone. However, in terms of who has a chance (and could get a fight), I’d rank it like this:
1. Rampage
2. Randy
3. Everyone else who has no chance
Shogun winning is a joke. Machida could have probably landed 4 counters by the time the looping hook that got chuck got to him.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
agree on the cardio
Machida was already gassing in the 2nd — and that was after basically being untouched standing, doing virtually no clinch work and zero ground fighting.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
I noticed that too. I’m beginning to wonder if it is an issue regarding his style rather than his training.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 25, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
that was Frank Shamrock's bet about Cung Le
that his style was inefficient and that he would inevitably gas in the later rounds. It was looking like he might have been onto something before Cung broke his arm.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
I think he still is, it’s just that Frank ain’t the guy to expose that.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 25, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s weird to think of Machida gassing when > 1/2 his fights are decisions.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 25, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but he recent increase in the intensity of his exchanges may be part of the cause.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 25, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
didn’t Machida explicitly say that he doesn’t train Cardio? and that his Cardio comes from just training in his MMA disciplines?
by CliChe Guevara on May 25, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
also agree that it would be Couture at 205
not sure why Rossen thinks Randy would stay at heavyweight.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
He barely weighs 220 without dieting. It would be if he loses to Brock again, which he probably will due to size advantage. Honestly, I’d rather see Randy fight guys his own size.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
220 without dieting?
he came in light to lesnar at 220, and i would say that is probably with dieting and trying to be “quick”. im not saying he can’t make 205, but to say that it would be a breeze i think is silly. Hes a heavyweight at this point in his life
"All I guarantee is Violence" - Wand
Probably age & health issues regarding cutting.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 25, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone is saying the Shogun who fought Chuck could beat Machida, an improved, healthier, faster, and stronger Shogun might have a chance. Will he ever get back to the guy who fought in PRIDE? Who knows, but if he does that could be an exciting fight. Until the third round when neither of them can breathe.
Re: Shogun, see Thiago Silva.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 25, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw that his mouth was agape. I also saw the look of surprise when Rashad connected with a leg or body kick, I don’t remember which it was, in the second round. He also got tagged twice when he stayed in the pocket for a split second to long. The way to beat him is take him down and wear him out in the first round. It will certainly be difficult but it can be done. Another way to possibly beat him is to get him out of his rhythm with his footwork. I do think Rampage can win but don’t think he will because I think Lyoto will just leg kick the heck out of him.
Seriously.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 25, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Nate’s point about the hooks is salient. The kind of hooks Rashad landed looked eerily similar to the one Rampage clocked chuck with, Rashad just doesn’t have the same kind of counter power. I think Machida wins, but again, people are writing off Quinton Jackson far too fast.
agreed.
Machida doesn’t get hit often, but he can be hit. Jackson has a good chin and really only needs one punch, from either hand. He’ll be a tough fight for Machida.
I love me some Sexyama!
He can survive a long time and keep himself in it for a while. He has more heart and toughness than almost any fighter, proven in the Forrest fight. And his cardio is quite good, to go 5 rounds with a hurt leg in the second, and also wrestling Dan Henderson for 5 rounds.
Rampage is being very underrated online. I think the line is gonna be like +300, in which case I’ll bet.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That wold be a good bet for sure.
As much as I love Machida, I am skeptical he can finish Jackson. If it goes into the campionship rounds, Jackson has a real shot to catch a tired, slower Machida.
I love me some Sexyama!
No chance Rampage is +300. In my opinion the right odds are probably around +200 and the books might flirt with +250 but anything about that is a completely ridiculous line.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
MMA books are weird. I got Clay Guida at +260 against Diego. I got Tim Sylvia 2 years ago for +230 or so against Brandon Vera. They overreact to hype and name, they usually aren’t that educated about MMA.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude...I cleaned up on that Sylvia/Vera fight.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the books are getting much more savvy on MMA with the increased interest over the last couple years.
Maybe the first time I’ve disagreed with you. They’re marginally better than they were 3 years ago, but opening lines are still atrocious. Outside of bankroll management, the best skill for an MMA bettor is jumping on opening lines. How else do you explain things like:
B.J. Penn -150 vs. Kenny Florian
Lyoto Machdia -160 vs. Rashad Evans
Anderson Silva -350 vs. Thales Leites
Etc.
By fight time, the sharps have usually pushed the lines to a fairly efficient number, but you can still find lots of value obv.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
The issue I have with Rampage is his lack of dimensions. I believe even before his fight with Jardine he mentioned about mixing it up a bit more, takedowns, etc. I saw none of that. His boxing defense is better than most, and he can counter with power. However, to counter Chuck is far different than to counter Machida. Also, if he’s countering Machida it’s likely that Machida is dictating the pace which Rashad proved wasn’t a great idea.
I think at this point in his career Couture is a little too slow and I honestly think Machida has a good enough base that he could remain standing. He might even be able to take Couture down with his slick trips and sweeps. Randy is always supposed to lose though and I think he has the best chance. Dirty boxing and a Randy gameplan, beeyotch.
Shogun would get destroyed.
Rampage is definitely a different beast than Rashad. Rashad tagged Machida a couple of times and if Machida gets tagged by one of his hooks it might be lights out. I’m sure Machida knows this as well as you and I and would alter his gameplan a little.
A GSP fight at middleweight would be intriguing but I think Machida may be a little too big. GSP has some phenomenal takedowns, he’s a cardio machine, and has the speed to match Machida. He might be able to punish him on the ground, but I don’t see him hitting Machida too much. It would be a karate fight which might be kinda awesome. I don’t think they would even consider making that fight anytime soon. Same goes for Machida/Silva. It’s unfortunately not going to happen in my opinion.
There are people on the horizon it seems who have pieces of what it’s going to take to beat Lyoto but no one with the complete package.
Shogun is the last guy I’d give the “best chance” to. That fight would look an awful lot like the Thiago Silva fight.
In order:
1. Randy – He wears guys out like no one else in the clinch. While Machida’s clinch game is tight, Randy’s is the perfect foil. Machida has gassed before and his mouth was opening against Rashad. If he had to deal with a few rounds of Randy manhandling him in the clinch (and I do think Randy could figure out a way to close the distance) I could see Couture pulling it off.
2. Rampage – Durability and a willingness to push the pace while not abandoning clever defense is a nice combination against what Machida brings. Again, I think you have to push him deep into the fight while making him work the whole time. Rampage is durable with solid cardio and he could get to Machida late in the fight, or catch him with a counter early. I know we all pretend that you can’t counter Machida but Evans did at least once and if Rampage does he does possess the power to end the fight.
3. …no one – I don’t think there is really a lot out there beyond these two that possess the tools to stop Machida right now beyond just “hope you clip him with a lucky shot”
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions
I really don’t see Randy beating him. It’s easy to say “Randy could figure out a way to close the distance”, but nobody has done it consistently yet and Randy is not as quick as he used to be and he won’t have much of a weight advantage if any. Honestly, I see it ending much the same way as the fight against Rashad, Machida uses his quickness to catch him with some combo of punches and kicks and ends it with a KO/TKO late in the 2nd.
Please...
don’t cut out the words “I do think” from my quote. As it separates what I was saying as being opinion…not fact ;)
I just think Couture could figure out a way to get it done.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
BUT...
not necessarily do I think he would win. I’m just saying the ways that I think the two guys COULD potentially win.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, obviously that’s an opinion, I assumed anybody intelligent enough to find their way to this website would be able to figure that out. A lot of people thought Randy would be able to figure out a way to beat Brock too and he didn’t even come close. Now this fight and that fight are entirely different situations but I think Randy may have lost more in his layoff than a lot of people want to admit. He’s obviously a great tactician but I just don’t think he has the physical tools to get it done against someone like Brock (stronger) or Machida (quicker) anymore. Guys in the same situation as him like Cro Cop or Noguiera I think he can still handle but not the guys who have such obvious physical advantages.
Gonzaga had all the physical advantages in the world. I think extrapolating from a bad style match against a guy weighing 60 lbs more than him at fight time as to where he stands as a fighter is unfair. How many 205’ers would hand as long with Lesnar? I don’t think many.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, a number of guys have closed the distance and got into the clinch. Sok, Nakamura, Tito, even Thiago Silva. Nobody’s really done a great job there, but it’s not like nobody has ever been in the clinch against the fence with machida. It’s happened…a lot.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Randy and Rampage’s chances would be roughly the same, but I’m basically in agreement with you here.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on May 25, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
"hope you clip him with a lucky shot"
You think Matt Serra can beat him? Interesting…
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 25, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Lucky Shot, bowling ball head, punch to the back of the head...
whatever.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
What’s bowling-ball head? Never even heard of that.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 25, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Hit a guy with your really hard head...
ala Evander Holyfield
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah – at first I thought you meant poke both eyes & mouth at once, like grabbing onto a bowling ball.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 25, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not sure about Randy. At his he age, he can possibly gas in later rounds. It showed in the Tim Sylvia fight, but that probably can be attributed to a long lay-off.
by The Bronzeville Bully on May 25, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If anyone has the following GIFs, please email me:
1. Rashad’s hooks that landed
2. Rampage’s hook that floored chuck
those hooks from rashad were fast
and I don’t see rampage being that fast, but his would definetely have more power to them.
They did not land flush, if at all.
They also look significantly different from this:
by Flying Gogoplata on May 25, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s a bit of debate as to whether Rashad’s hooks even landed. I think Machida just ducked away from the last one.
What’s the hardest hit Machida’s ever taken? I remember Soku landed a good punch early on, but that’s it.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on May 25, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Machida said Nakamura has hit him the hardest, probably referring to this one:
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on May 25, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's a classic Nakamura hail mary punch
not exactly something you could build a gameplan around.
leaping left hook wow.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Machidas mouth might have been open for any number of reasons aside from cardio, like trying to bait Evans into mouthing off about how Machida was already tired… Or just not being afraid of getting hit. Just saying.
The mouth closed thing is to avoid getting your block knocked off. If you aren’t worried about that, why not breathe out of the mouth and get more O2 in your blood stream.
He's gassed...
plenty of times before this though.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
He has a history of gassing, and you can watch his old fights to see he doesnt just breathe through the mouth against guys like Tito with no real threat until he gasses.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn't have an open mouth all the time...
he gassed against Tito, Nakamura, Evans…etc.
This doesn’t mean I think he has BAD cardio, simply that it might be one of the VERY few chinks in his armor that can maybe be exploited. But I’m not willing to pretend that he is without any possible flaw.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on May 25, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Human beings tend to breath through the mouth when they get tired in order to supply their bodies with more oxygen. Tired =/= gassing. When I see gassing, I see a fighter being slowed with marked decreased reflexes. I don’t know if Machida’s open mouth breathing could be construed as “gassing.”
I'm sure you guys watched TUF
That British dude – that was gassing. Machida = tired. Not gassing.
We just watched a guy that has never lost a round in the UFC...
Completely dismantle the reigning champion and the best bet most people can come up with to stop him is a 46 year old man that has had one fight (a loss) in the last 20 months?
Rampage yes, his boxing is sound and he has the toughness to absorb the punishment needed to land a few shots on Machida and who knows, maybe one will land on the button.
Couture though? Thats Drago-Creed levels of scary matchmaking.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on May 25, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Couldn’t agree more. A lot of people who know more about MMA than I seem to disagree but I just don’t see it, Machida is just the kind of guy who can avoid Randy’s clinch and pick him apart with kicks and punches. Do you guys really believe Randy can hold Machida against the cage for 2 or 3 minutes per round? Because I dont.
I’m with you, I don’t really get the Couture love here. Maybe the body of a 33 year old Couture with the brain’s of the current one? But there’s no way a near-50 year old guy beats the absolute cream of the crop at 205.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
The 33 year old Couture was nowhere near the fighter the 43 year old one was. And no, it’s not his “brains” making the difference, it’s his increase in skill.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, when I say the brains of an older Couture, that would include everything he’s picked up with regards to muscle memory and skill about fighting. But a 46 year old man, no matter what kind of athlete he is, is going to have a significant gap in pure physical ability than a man at his peak age. Machida would expose Couture for what he is, that being a 46 year old man with diminshed speed and reflexes.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
Just because people seem to be missing my point, I’ll go into a little more why I think Couture is only a 2-1 dog against Machida where most everyone else is 4-1. Here are some points.
We’ve never seen Machida fight someone good at greco roman wrestling, let alone elite at it.
Couture was able to actually hold Brock against the cage for significant periods of time. His strength is unbelievable, anyone that goes and visits to train with him will say the same thing. Gonzaga was just flabberghasted by it.
Machida looked susceptible to good dirty boxing against Tito.
Randy is good at developing fight strategy.
Machida’s gas tank is a question, and Couture wins by breaking guys will and gassing them out in the clinch.
All this being said, I think Machida would eventually catch him. But I give him a much better chance than Franklin, Shogun, Forrest, Rashad (rematch), Luiz Cane, or Wanderlei Silva. So yes, I’d rather see this than see randy fighting guys 60 lbs bigger than him.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I would scrap together whatever money I could find to be on Machida at -200 against Couture.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
That’s why I want to see how Randy looks against Nog. Not because Nog and Machida fight similarly (they don’t), but because we might be able to see if age is becoming a significant factor for Randy. It’s definitely a legit worry, considering his inactivity over the last couple of years.
by Cannon Jacques on May 25, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh gosh.
If only you could read Mike Sloan’s article blasting the UFC for booking broken down Couture who got knocked out twice by Chuck against Tim Sylvia. He went on and on about putting his health in jeopardy, as did a lot of people at the time.
Randy routinely beats up on a number of elite fighters at his gym. He lost to a guy 60 lbs bigger than him with a better wrestling pedigree and now he has no chance?
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn’t have no chance because he lost to Brock Lesnar, he has no chance because Machida is too quick for him to keep pushed up against the cage the whole fight and Machida has the kind of precision striking that can put Randy to sleep fairly quickly.
Nakamura and Machida clinched against the cage for a major part of their fight. I know Nakamura’s incredible speed and reflexes dwarf Randy’s…
Randy managed to keep Brock against the cage for a good while. He made it impossible for Gonzaga to move off. He’s incredibly strong, and presents an interesting stylistic challenge for Machida who has never fought a seriously good greco roman wrestler in MMA.
It’s kind of exasperating because I’d pick Machida. But the overhype is already getting annoying, you’d think he actually has a cape and flies around the octagon with laser vision.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
One man will never give in to the hype.
Did you seem him in the KO gifs? Stone cold, I think he might have smiled a little.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
Michael, did you just come back from 2007? Because from everything you are saying in this thread you seem to have missed everything that has happened over the last 2 years. If you are trying to say Machida is the same fighter he was back then then I guess I don’t know what to tell you. At Randy’s age his physical skills are obviously eroding. Machida has been improving every fight.
And don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Machida is invincible, I give Rampage about a 30-35% chance of winning, I just don’t think Randy Couture can beat him at this stage in his career. Randy Couture circa 2007? Sure. Randy Couture circa late 2009-early 2010? No.
Until I see proof his skills are eroding I will go with what I see and what fighters that go to visit his camp tell me, not your guesses about his age.
Here’s a thought: Randy was a much better fighter at 44 than he was at 39. MUCH better. Nothing I’ve seen makes me think his skills have eroded. It’s one thing to declare a guy done when he is beaten to the punch and just doesn’t perform like he used to. Declaring Randy is done because he’s 46 and not 44 is just guessing. Maybe you’re right, but it’s not based on anything we’ve seen.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Until I see proof his skills are eroding I will go with what I see and what fighters that go to visit his camp tell me, not your guesses about his age.
I’m guessing those people would have told you that he would beat Brock Lesnar, obviously that wasn’t the case. I’m not saying the guy isn’t strong or quick, I’m saying he’s not quick enough to get inside on Machida more than a couple times and he’s not strong enough to hold him against the cage the entire time even if he does get him there.
Here’s a thought: Randy was a much better fighter at 44 than he was at 39. MUCH better.
So does that mean he will just keep improving til he dies? Is the 54 year old Randy going to be better than the 44 year old Randy? Just because he improved from 39 to 44 doesn’t mean that he couldn’t have gone downhill between 44 and 46, especially when he spent a lot of that time in a courtroom instead of in a cage.
It’s one thing to declare a guy done when he is beaten to the punch and just doesn’t perform like he used to. Declaring Randy is done because he’s 46 and not 44 is just guessing. Maybe you’re right, but it’s not based on anything we’ve seen.
I don’t recall saying he’s done, I recall saying that he can’t beat the undefeated LHW champion who is 15 years younger than him and has never lost a round in the UFC. I don’t consider that as big of an insult as you seem to.
Until I see proof his skills are eroding I will go with what I see and what fighters that go to visit his camp tell me, not your guesses about his age.
what would be the proof? i dont think hes gonna fight anyone that will prove it to you anytime soon. theres not gonna be a couture-gonzaga 2 or a couture-jon jones where afterwards we all go ‘yeah hes finally done’.
ill tell you what i see though. hes not fighting much, he keeps getting hurt, and he keeps getting older and older. by the time he fights machida, if he ever does, hed be nearly 47. and theres a good chance he would not have won in nearly 3 years.
lemme put something else on you; his last two losses at 205 pounds were to a counter puncher. he was terrible in both fights and got blown out. now hes gonna come in like, 5 years older and slower, but hes gonna be competitive? nah, sorry. theres a fighter whos a live threat against machida at extreme couture but it aint randy.
But the overhype is already getting annoying, you’d think he actually has a cape and flies around the octagon with laser vision.
I think people need to step away from this for a few days and let reality set in. All the hype seems similar tot he buzz around GSP when he first won the title. Then came Serra and we all know what happened there. Machida’s not unbeatable. I’ll reserve judgement until he defends his title a couple of times.
I love me some Sexyama!
“Machida’s not unbeatable” Unproven.
“Machida is unbeaten” Proven
by cyph on May 25, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your premise that Machida is prone to "gassing" has no basis in fact.
He has never lost a round in the UFC, but somehow you see his tendencies to “gas?” A gassed fighter is a done fighter, 5 seconds away from defeat. See Shogun VS Griffin, Rua VS Coleman.
I’m not going to play semantics. He’s looked exhausted and had his performance level suffer before in fights. He didn’t collapse, but his speed and dominance went away when he gassed.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not arguing semantics. I’m arguing that your premise that there are fighters who fight at the same condition in the 5th round as one who’s fresh in the 1st. There hasn’t been one fighter like that, even GSP who was markedly tired in the 5th round against Fitch.
If you argue that he gets tired in the latter rounds, then I agree. If you argue that it’s a condition unique to Machida, then I disagree.
Actually Machida himself stated he was seconds away from passing out to Tito’s triangle. I believe that is a fight in question that people are saying he gassed in, that also satisfies your point of being “5 seconds away from defeat”. The triangle was locked in in the waning seconds of the 3rd round.
by CliChe Guevara on May 25, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Good call Cyph. Until his performance looks markedly decreased and he loses control of the fight due to fatigue, I see the gassing comment as a little pre-mature.
Soku vs Machida = gassing. The fight left him and Machida dominated the rest of the round.
Shogun vs Coleman = gassing. The only reason Shogun didn’t lose was that Coleman gassed worse.
Machida? I just don’t see it, but i haven’t watched every single fight.
I sort of wonder about the over-hype thing too. I’ve been loving on Machida since his fight with Soku, but to date, no one’s even gotten close. I mean, even GSP was rattled by BJ, arm-barred by Hughes, decisioned by Mayhem and Parisyan etc. With Machida, all his fights are so decisive, and in a power-packed division, it’s hard to not be a little in awe.
Oh, and although the Jon Jones point is probably considered a little silly by most, I seriously think that he could own this division in time.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
With you on that
As we have seen with Brock, a gifted athlete can overcome a lot in terms of skill. Jon Jones seems like he could work distances well, does great take downs, and may have the natural speed to keep up with Lyoto’s quickness. After getting a few more fights and some good coaching, I think he could do it.
Agreed, isn’t he only 21? There’s a lot of upside, hopefully he can remain “healthy”
by CliChe Guevara on May 25, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Dan Henderson is the one man that can do it at 205 simply because he can dry-hump Machida against the cage for five rounds. He just cannot get aggressive with Machida. That’ll probably happen and he’ll get tagged which will lead to him getting finished on the ground. But, he does have the tools to do it. If Henderson beats Bisping, I could see him fighting Machida.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
the two best options are the two best upcoming LHW, Feijao and King Mo… but both i feel would still lose.
"I’m not going to stop yelling because that would mean, I lost the fight!"-Kenny Powers
those are excellent candidates
But I think King Mo would befall a very similar fate to Sokoudjou and Feijao’s fate is foretold by Thiago Silva. I hope we get to find out though!
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
I’m not trying to single you out because I’ve seen this around the net, but can someone please explain to me why people think Ryan Bader can eventually become an elite guy at 205? Because I just don’t see it.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
His nickname is “Darth.” That’s my theory, anyway.
by Cannon Jacques on May 25, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I figured it was his secret character status in the game.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Machida is NOT going to be finishing Rampage like he did Rashad. Bet on it. This fight will go to a decision for Machida or a KO/TKO for Rampage. The Machida decision of course is way more likely lol.
I call for a Slampage return at once!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
I am getting a sense of deja vu here…
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
:(
lol
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on May 25, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I mentioned Jon Jones in my post from yesterday morning...
As well as one other guy who might (I say MIGHT) have a chance:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/mma/post/2009/05/67207737/1
oh snap
I saw this piece earlier and couldn’t find it when I was working on this post. I’ll do an update!
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
updated without noting it in the post
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
What about Cain Velasquez?
I heard from, I think it may be the underground forum, that he gave Machida fits when he was training at AKA for his fight against Ortiz
by The Bronzeville Bully on May 25, 2009 7:59 PM EDT reply actions
I know, but Im wondering if that’s true from what I heard
by The Bronzeville Bully on May 25, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
If that’s the case, than it’s certainly possible to crack his style.
by The Bronzeville Bully on May 25, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
If I remember correctly from the UFC 84 countdown, Machida was training wrestling at AKA – not a full camp. And obviously, Cain would give any LHW issues wrestling.
by MMAEruption on May 25, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, but Im wondering if that’s true from what I heard,
by The Bronzeville Bully on May 25, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions
In terms of Machida’s cardio, I think the reason for it being suspect is that his strength and conditioning still needs some work. In his earlier fights in the UFC he weighed in quite a lot less than 205 if someone knows the exact figures which I’m unfamiliar with. If you look at his earlier fights he also looked a lot softer than he does now. I remember reading a few places that he only hired a strength and conditioning coach after the Ortiz fight. Personally I think his weight cutting and strength and conditioning work need fine-tuned, and that simply the reason for his cardio being suspect. When you look at the power of his strikes now compared to earlier fights, you notice a big difference now that in his fights against Heath and the like.
In summary, I think if his cardio is suspect, it can be very easily rectified with an improved trainer and weight cutting routine
Henderson?
Not that I think he would win but if as everyone suddenly thinks, wrestling is the answer then he might have a chance to tire out Machida.
I think from what we have seen recently his gas tank is his only possible weakness. Now that his fights will be 5 rounders we might see that put to the test.
I dislike Matt Hughes.
I think Henderson is more prone to gassing than Machida.
by Michael Rome on May 25, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
He did beat Anderson Silva. One round! That moral victory of winning a round is enough lol
by CliChe Guevara on May 25, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
If Lyoto ever fights Anderson Silva
That means the Lyoto Era will be coming to an end. Not because AS will necessarily beat Lyoto, but because it means Lyoto will be giving up his ‘martial way’ for money. This will damage his mental game and mean that he’ll lose soon.
One of Lyoto’s greatest strengths is his mental game, his belief in his martial art and his lack of the vices of modern life.
I think the challenge of it
would make it worthy
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
I wouldn't mind seeing Brandon Vera try.
He’d have an uphill battle, but I suspect it would at least be entertaining for as long as it lasts.
that's an intriguing fight
Vera’s got the greco skills to be trouble in the clinch, he’s rangy and his footwork is pretty sound.
But he’s also coming from a muay thai base and Machida has shown he can pick apart that style.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
I like Rampages chances. However, I think the person who would have the best chance of beating Machda would be Dan Henderson with his clinch and wrestling. ANother person no one is mentioning is Rich Franklin. I know Machida has already beaten Rich, but I belive both fighters have evolved since then. I like Rich at 205. Id like to see a rematch.
Fedor Power
I honestly think the only person who has the best chance of winning against Machida is Fedor.
Honestly thats a tough question to answer. Rich is 11-3 since the fight, and machida is 13-0. However Rich is former champ and has sucessfully defended his belt. If Machida beats Rampage then id probably say Machida. I think Rich is a totaly different fighter now and has the tool set to beat him. Also the 3 matches Rich lost you could argue if machida fought silva twice and Dan once, he could have 3 losses as well. Either way I think Rich is a guy not to overlook to challenge Machida.
Well.....
I think Machida would beat Dan, and I think Franklin would lose to Rashad. I think Franklin is pretty well down the list for a 205 title shot so I’m not sure this is a matchup worth much discussion.
If he wins against Wand and gets another win he’s a definite contender. This is a far more likely match than people think.
If Dan beats Bisping I’d like to see Dan/Shogun for a title shot after Rampage’s shot.
by Michael Rome on May 26, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think 2 wins in a row in such a stacked division is going to get it done, unless you are someone like Rampage who was champion less than a year ago. I see Franklin as 3 wins away, and I’m not sure he beats upper echelon 205’ers like Forrest or Rashad.
For such a stacked division, there’s no one really waiting in the wings for a title shot after Rampage. You have a bunch of guys who still need to prove something one way or another. Rich beating Wand and then someone like Jardine or Thiago Silva or what have you would at least have him in discussions.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
Well, I think if Forrest beats Anderson then that sets him up for the next shot, especially with his popularity. Obviously that’s a big if but keep in mind with TUF coming up and then Rampage vs Machida after that we might be 9 months or more away from having to figure out who gets the next title shot. By that time there could be a few guys in the mix for the next shot.
2 Wins would definately get it done. He is a former champ, and he is popular and a rematch between him and machida would be huge. Im looking at it from a UFC perspective. I think Rich would put Forrest to sleep, and I like his chances aganist Rashad, I wouldnt rank shogun ahead of rich and I certainly wouldnt rank bones jones ahead of Rich. RIch isnt far away if he beats wandy, which is definately not going to be an easy task.
Retirement.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on May 26, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I agree with the people that would like to see Randy give it a try. My guess is he’d fail, but he at least might give future opponents something to build on.
That said I wonder if there is not too much made of the takedowns on the Nakamura fight and the fact that Tito and Nakamura got to the clinch. I’m really not trying to add to Lyoto’s aura of invincibility, but my concern with this line of reasoning of takes me back to an “Oh sh*t” moment when Anderson Silva fought Nate Marquardt (I’m pretty sure that was the fight): Anderson tries a crazy flying kick and Randy Couture says “not really something you’d do if you’re worried about being taken down”…. I thought to myself, “hey he’s right, Silva really doesn’t give a rat’s ass if he ends up on his back with Marquardt, he doesn’t think Nate has anything for him. That’s a scary thought I’m having.” — Such kicks were noticably absent from the Henderson and Leites fight.
I ask myself… How scared was Machida of either Tito or Nakamura in that position? Might that have something to do with that fact that the fight got there in the first place? Didn’t he almost explode Tito’s Liver with a knee while Tito was trying to get something done with the clinch? Didn’t he hit several of those knees before then? Didn’t he take Nakamura down and mount him several times before giving up the first takedown, trying furiously to beat his face in? Did anything about those exchanges make him overly concerned about going to the ground with Nakamura? Was he willing to take chances to get finishes at that point in his career, trying to shed concerns that the UFC would collapse if he ever came to be the champ of its marquee division?
Didn’t he stay on the ground with Soko, purposely? Didn’t he get up with Rashad? Weren’t those choices part of a calculated strategy of matching strengths on weaknesses?
Maybe I’m giving too much, credit I’m certainly NOT trying to say Nakamura’s takedowns were all part of some Zen strategy of luring his opponent into false security just that he might have done a better job of keeping these guys away from him if he were truly scared of engaging with them in the clinch or on the ground, or even of their punching power, like he surely was of Rashad’s.
One other person that has just as much of a chance as these guys is "Nobody".
He’s the same person that will end the “Fedor Era”
by P4P is a stupid concept on May 26, 2009 9:12 AM EDT reply actions
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