UFC 98: MAY 23, 2009
venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card Bouts:
Rashad Evans (16-0-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (14-0)

Luke Thomas: We actually don't really know what to expect, but I suspect this will hit the championship rounds. And while Evans is known to drop rounds early, he has also shown the ability to bide his time while he surges towards the end of fights (the fight with Bisping notwithstanding). Evans is also more easily rattled than his coaches would suggest. He showed clear frustration in several bouts where he was tagged or dropping the fight. He's mostly been able to recover or catch a lucky break, but I think Machida will be too unforgiving. Evans will turn it on late, but it will be too little too late. Machida by decision.

Kid Nate: This is a really exciting match up for those of us who like our MMA dry and sophisticated like a fine chablis...he he he. I'm kidding. Should be a really high-level contest of strategy and will. Who can force the other guy out of his comfort zone? Both of these guys are used to being the predator, stalking his opponent, figuring out the timing and striking when ready. Someone's going to get thrown out of their comfort zone, maybe they'll both be forced out of their gameplan and it will turn into an epic wingding that will test both to the max. I'm was actually leaning towards picking Evans here based on the craftiness of the Jackson camp, his uncanny patience and what I believe are his superior physical gifts. However after more thought I think Machida's ability to get takedowns in the clinch is the key here. Expect Evans to lose this fight on his back. Machida by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Initially I thought this was going to be warmly received by the live crowd because it will be a tense "something can happen at any moment" type fight.  But I now realize this is going to get booed out of the building, city, state, country...etc.  Still, I think this is going to be a very interesting watch.  I haven't waivered much from my initial feelings on the fight though, Machida is too good in the clinch for Rashad to get inside and tie him up for a takedown...he's too good at a distance picking his spots to get in and out...and his BJJ is good enough that should he get put on his back he can survive.  Machida is going to take this 49-46 across the board.  Lyoto Machida by decision.

Mike Rome:  I'm a Rashad Evans skeptic, and a Lyoto Machida believer.  Rashad just has to do so much right to win, while Lyoto just needs to come in and fight like he always does.  Perhaps Greg Jackson has figured Machida out, but I doubt it.  Lyoto Machida via decision.

Michael Fagan: Read my gambling article for my analysis, but I'm big on Machida here.  Rashad has some holes that Machida will exploit, and I fail to see how Rashad can capitalize on a mistake big enough to finish Machida.  Machida by TKO, round 4.  Welcome your new 205 overlord.

Cannon Jacques:  Evans definitely has the power and, in a title fight, the time to connect with a powerful shot to end the match.  However, Machida might be the hardest UFC fighter to land strikes against.  Look for Machida to do what he does and frustrate Evans while scoring points in the process.  Machida by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I am warry about excluding the possibility of stoppage here, but I do not see it ending early. Machida will win the point battle against Greg Jackson's between round adjustments. Lyoto Machida by Unanimous Decision (49-46).

Leland Roling: I'm going with Lyoto Machida here. His style has yet to be solved, and Evans stating he will counter the counter seems like wishful thinking. I don't think he has the speed to chase Machida down and put him on his back. Machida via clowning (decision).


Matt Hughes (42-7) vs. Matt Serra (11-5)

Luke Thomas: If Serra can work distancing at all, he does have the power to end Hughes' evening despite what doubters suggest. However, Hughes' move to MMAA was something of an insurance policy to not only make sure his strengths were sharpened up to par but to give his cardio the extra push that Serra likely can't get to. I believe Hughes is the better athlete and I don't see Serra being able to deal with the strength and control of Hughes. Serra can muscle an undersized Jeff Curran and Ivan Menjivar, but not Hughes. Hughes by decision.

Kid Nate: The X factor in this fight is which of these aging fighters has aged the most during their hybernation. Serra has the power standing to hurt Hughes and take him out of his bully-mode which makes it a bit of a tough call. Provided that Hughes' knees don't give out mid-fight he should be able to take down Serra and do some damage. but  I'm thinking that Hughes will be so eager to punish Serra when he does get the take-down that he'll make a mistake and allow Serra to get back to his feet...nah. Hughes by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Serra's takedown defense doesn't inspire a lot of confidence and Hughes is really going after it in training.  I don't really think this fight gets finished either way.  Hughes is going to sit on top all fight landing occasional punches while nutralizing any hip movement from Serra.  I don't trust the top of this card to go over well with the live crowd.  Hughes by decision.

Mike Rome:  This is just a really hard fight to call.  It completely turns on whether Serra can sprawl and avoid the takedown.  There is no question about what Matt Hughes will look to do, but at the same time Serra has never had much in the way of takedown defense.  There are a lot of questions, but at the end of the day I'm going with Hughes.  He has the cardio to ride out a decision.  Hughes via decision.

Michael Fagan:  I made a bad bet and have Serra at +200.  I really don't like it.  Hughes needs to come in broken down or Serra needs to have some miracle camp.  But to hell with it.  I might be the only one, but Serra by TKO.

Cannon Jacques:  To me, this is a pretty evenly matched bout.  I'm glad the match is finally going to happen, and I think it could be one to remember.  Serra's more proficient striking could be the difference.  He should be able to hold his own on the ground by threatening submissions, but I see the standup tipping the odds in favor of Serra.  Serra by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Hughes may not be able to wrestle with the champion, but I see him with the ability to put Serra on the mat. From there, Hughes pounds out a victory near the end. Matt Hughes by TKO, Round 3.

Leland Roling: A very tough fight to call, but I think Hughes will be the more conditioned fighter. He'll have the wrestling advantage whereas Serra can counter with jiu-jitsu and takedown defense to use his standup game. The only problem is that Serra isn't know to be a huge finisher in either area, although it is possible. Hughes via decision.


Dan Miller (11-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (21-10-1)

Luke Thomas: Regardless of Sonnen's status in the annals of MMA history in the great Northwest, this is a set-up match Miller. Miller by submission round 2.

Kid Nate: Chael Sonnen is tailor made for the submission savvy Miller. Miller should be able to match him on the feet and when Sonnen takes it to the ground, Miller will tap him out. Miller by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: This should be Miller's fight to lose.  On paper I feel really confident that he'll get a submission mid-way through the fight.  Still there is something nagging me about this fight.  I'm going to go with Miller because I think he is slightly better standing or on the ground and he is willing to give up the takedown so he can work his submission game.  Dan Miller by submission, round 2.

Michael Fagan:  Chael Sonnen doesn't fight smart and he comes from a camp that isn't known to put together great gameplans.  For as experienced as he is, he also doesn't seem to get the submission aspect of grappling.  Miller's good at it.  2+2 = Dan Miller by submission, round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  Sonnen's a really solid fighter, but he has a bad habit of falling into submissions against the better grapplers.  Dan Miller knows submissions pretty well, and that's his most likely method in besting Sonnen.  Miller by submission, round 3.

Eugene Schelfaut: This is just the way it has to be. Dan Miller by Submission (RNC), Round 1.

Leland Roling: As I said in this week's in-depth article regarding Miller, Sonnen's submission defense IQ is questionable. Sonnen is likely going to give up a limb at some point, and Miller is adept enough at the submission game to put Sonnen in immediate danger when that happens. He'll also likely have a standup advantage, so I see Miller winning here. Miller via submission, Round 2.


Sean Sherk (33-3-1) vs. Frankie Edgar (9-1)

Luke Thomas: Do not be surprised if this turns out to be a wake up call to Edgar that he needs to drop to 145lbs. Where Tyson Griffin initiates unnecessary scrambles and throws aggressive if telegraphed combinations, Sherk is far more methodical and better about risk management. That's enough to get the nod for me. Sherk by split decision.

Kid Nate: I'm hoping for one of those epic lightweight tussles between two guys who can bang AND wrestle (think Guida/Griffin or Edgar/Griffin). I expect Edgar to have the hand-speed and accuracy to make Sherk want to take him down or risk getting outpointed standing. Unlike Tyson Griffin, Edgar won't be able to just stand up every time Sherk gets a takedown so we should have a good chance for some wild scrambles. I'm going to bet on Sherk being able to outmuscle Edgar and dominate in the third round ala Gray Maynard. Sherk by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Sherk needs to be careful with this "evolution" into a boxer.  He's pretty sound at it but it's much easier and safer for him to work that grinding against the cage, on top on the ground style.  Edgar's striking is a little bit more dynamic and if it turns into another one of those Sherk fights where they stand and bang I think Edgar will win.  Instead, I figure Frankie wins the first round striking and Sherk has the good sense to spend the rest of the fight using a smarter strategy of taking Edgar down and pounding away.  Sherk by decision.

Mike Rome:  Tough fight to call.  I think both guys will stay standing, at which point it becomes a very close fight.  Sherk relies almost exclusively on hooks, his boxing is improved but Edgar's looks better to me.  I'm going to take Edgar in the upset here...by decision.

Michael Fagan: If someone can explain why this fight goes any different than Edgar/Maynard, be my guest.  Sherk's just too big and Frankie should fight at 145. Sherk by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  There's something about Sherk abandoning his dominant wrestling in favor of utilizing his good, but not great, boxing that makes me uneasy.  Edgar is way undersized, but I just envision him having a better gameplan and executing against Sherk.  Edgar by TKO, round 3.

Eugene Schelfaut: Sherk wrestles Edgar into the WEC. Sean Sherk by Unanimous Decision.

Leland Roling: I'm taking Sherk here. He throws short, quick bombs, and adding in an improving boxing game can only help his chance of landing a big shot. He also isn't bad at muscling you into the cage for the entire fight. Sherk via TKO, Round 2.


Drew McFedries (7-5) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (20-10)

Luke Thomas: Honestly, this is basically a pick 'em as long as its a first round fight. McFedries will connect in the first round and the question is whether or not Prof. X can stand up to it. But what people also don't know is that while X couldn't hang with black belt Denis Kang on the ground, he might actually have enough submission acumen to stop the very submittable McFedries. Prof X. by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Let's just call this what it is -- a nearly pointless match that's on the main card to give the fans a quick slugfest to start the night. I think Professor X has the skills on his feet to out maneuver the brawling McFedries and get the TKO. Foupa-Pokam by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Pokam is the better technical striker, there is no doubt about that.  But McFedries has great power and thrives against guys who want to stay standing because he is always one punch away from knocking someone out.  I think this fight keeps Drew around in the UFC a little longer.  Drew McFedries by KO, Round 1.

Mike Rome:  This fight hardly belongs on PPV, let alone in the UFC.  Professor X is the better striker, Drew has more power.  I'm going to take McFedries via TKO in round 1.

Michael Fagan: Drew McFedries may hold the record for number of fights that last under 3 minutes.  I'm really not sure how he still has a UFC contract, but I expect that to change after this fight.  Foupa-Pokam by TKO, round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  I think this is kind of a toss-up fight.  If nothing else, McFedries has some formidable power.  McFedries by TKO, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: McFedries will tire after the first round. In the third he will get dropped and finished. Xavier Foupa-Pokam by TKO, Round 3. 

Leland Roling: McFedries has power in his hands while Pokam has an average submission game coupled with some solid technical striking. I'll go with what the fans want to see... McFedries via KO, Round 1.