Gambling Spotlight: UFC 98

Leland's UFC 98 preliminary picks here.

Enter the Dragon, baby.  The valuetown known as Machidaland has been shrinking with each fight, but the value's still there.  Like I told Cage Writer's Steve Cofield, Machida is my super ultra lock of the year (ed. note: not really lock of the year).

Why do I like Machida so much in this matchup?  Well, can you really bet against a guy who drinks his own piss for medicinal purposes?  I know I love a good, warm glass in the morning.  In all honesty, though, I think footwork's going to be the deciding factor.

At risk of stepping into Jordan Breen's House of Pain, Evans has been able to mask some bad footwork habits with his explosive, athletic nature.  Evans has two big issues that I've noticed.  First, he has happy feet.  Now, this isn't always a bad thing, but I find that he ends up leaving his feet while bouncing around.  Second, he tends to step "backwards."  For instance, when he steps forward, he'll start with his back foot.  Or if he steps to his right, he'll start with his left foot.

These are the kinds of mistakes that someone as technical as Machida will take advantage of.  When you step with the wrong foot, you lose your base which opens you up to strikes or takedowns.  And while Machida doesn't rely on typical MMA takedowns like double and single legs, his use of a variety of trips and sweeps are very effective, and should find their mark here.

In the interest of transparency, I've bet against Rashad in both the Liddell and Griffin fights.  In the Liddell fight, Rashad took a gigantic leap forward at the same time that Liddell fell flat on his face (literally).  With Griffin, I thought Forrest's size and volume would be enough to overwhelm Rashad and take a decision.  And for the first two rounds, I was very content with that prognostication.  Then Forrest threw a lazy kick, Rashad knocked him on his ass and pounded him out.

I don't think it takes a genius to recognize that trying to out-Machida Machida is an exercise in futility.  If Rashad fights the same fight he did with Liddell or Griffin, he's going to end up giving away rounds and, in all honesty, risk getting shut out.  If I'm mapping out Rashad's gameplan, I'm telling him to chase Machida down, tie him up, shove him against the fence, and try to wear him out.  I also wouldn't discourage Rashad from trying to put Machida on his back.  Using this strategy, you might win the first round or two and, in the process, tire Machida out in the later rounds.

The problem, of course, is tying Machida up.  He not only avoided Ortiz's takedowns and clinch attempts, he threw him off with ease.  And Ortiz is arguably the biggest guy at 205.  Still, if you can successfully tie him up, you take him out of his game, and that's a good first step in solving the Machida riddle.

Ultimately, though, I really like Machida in this fight.  Though, I really like Machida in any fight at 205.  Whatever speed advantage Evans might have (and I believe that advantage is marginal to begin with) will be offset by the superior footwork and movement of Machida.  I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Evans wins a decision, and the likelihood that a guy who has made so few mistakes makes one big enough for Evans to finish him is minimal.  I like Machida up to -250 and as high as -300 if you want to be aggressive.  And get used to seeing Lyoto Machida in main event title fights for the next couple years.

If you haven't heard, these guys really don't like each other.  Really.

Anyway, I bet Serra early at +160 (bad), saw the line hit +260 and put more on (because I can't let him beat me both ways), and now the line sits right about where my total play is at (+200).  And I'm still not really happy with the play.  If Serra can keep this fight standing, I like his chances.  Hughes, for whatever reason, hasn't developed an adequate striking game.

However, Serra remaining on his feet is a big if.  Yes, Hughes looked like an amateur against Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves.  But St. Pierre and Alves are absolute tanks at 170 with extremely dynamic styles and athleticism.  The only reason Serra fights at 170 is because he won a contrived reality show and pulled one of the biggest upsets in MMA history out of his ass.

Hughes loses this in two ways.  1)  Matt Serra has made significant strides in his ability to stay off his back or 2) Matt Hughes has fallen off a cliff.  I think the current line is fairly efficient, but I do like a play on Hughes up to -275.

In the la la land at Sports Intertional sportsbook, Drew McFedries opened up as a -227 favorite.  Who knows what's going on there.  Now Professor X is about a -185/-200 favorite around the 'net.  This line is pretty accurate.  McFedries really shouldn't have a UFC job, and Foupa-Pokam has much more technical striking.  However, Drew does pack enough power and Foupa-Pokam keeps his chin up often enough that we could see X's lights put out.  A small play on Professor X at -175 is OK here.

What happens when you mix a guy with poor submission defense and a lack of in-cage intelligence with a camp that's not known for it's gameplanning?  Chael Sonnen.  This is like a reverse ground-version of the Professor X/Drew McFedries fight.  Sonnen's so susceptible to submission and Miller's a good grappler, that it's hard to see the fight play out any other way.  The biggest worry from Miller's side is that Sonnen's wrestling is extremely good and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Sonnen can stifle him for 15 minutes.  I feel like there's still value on Miller, but I'm not confident enough to offer an official pick.

Frankly, I fail to see how this fight will be terribly different from Frank Edgar's fight with Gray Maynard.  Edgar should be fighting at 145 and Maynard, one of the bigger fighters at 155, muscled him around the cage en route to a decision victory.  My biggest worry with Sherk is that he continues to insist on boxing, a trend he started against B.J. Penn and continued with Tyson Griffin.  Penn outboxed him mainly behind a jab before knocking him out at the end of round three, while he won a close, but convincing decision against Griffin.

The big value, as usual, on Sherk was at the opening.  (I grabbed him at -210.)  Still, I like him for a small play at the current line.  I don't see either guy having much of an edge striking, but if Edgar does start to get the best of it, Sherk can fall back on his strength advantage and control a fight on the floor.