Gambling Spotlight: UFC 98 Preliminary Matchups

After a little over a month without any UFC action, UFC 98 is finally here. The event features a main event Light Heavyweight Championship Bout between Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida and "Sugar" Rashad Evans, a bitter rivalry matchup between former UFC Welterweight champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, and a prominent Lightweight tilt between Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar.

Mike Fagan will be previewing the main card for UFC 98 shortly while I'll be throwing out my thoughts on the UFC 98 preliminary matchups in the context of making some green to go along with your excitement of Saturday's event. Let's take a look:

Welterweights: Brock Larson (-300) vs. Chris Wilson (+250)

Currently, Pinnacle out of Canada is the only book posting lines for this bout along with a few others that are not posted yet on other books. Pinnacle is only available to those in Canada, but the other books may post odds for these fights soon.

UPDATE: BetCRIS and Sportsbook have posted lines, and SportsInternational apparently decided they were idiots and abruptly changed their lines. Larson was a slight underdog under their preliminary lines. If you got a bet in, good for you.

Brock Larson was a slight underdog in this matchup, but now he's a heavy favorite. It isn't a bad little incentive to push some money onto Larson who will enjoy a solid wrestling advantage coupled with his power. Wilson isn't a slouch, and he has the experience to eek out a decison victory here with his very technical boxing and sprawl tactics.

I like Larson here as he's very effective at the simple gameplan he imposes on fighters, takedown and crush your opponent. Wilson has had problems with wrestlers before. Larson also trains out of Minnesota with Lesnar and Sherk, so he has a solid team to push his conditioning and skills. At -300, it isn't a terrible great bet, but worth a play nonetheless.

Heavyweights: Pat Barry (-325) vs. Tim Hague (+260)

Tim Hague... what can I say here that won't make this seem like a slaughter? I studied a lot of video on Hague in the last few days, and I tried to come up with some idea as to how he would counter Barry. The huge problem Hague has in some of his bouts against more well-rounded kickboxers is that he awkwardly eats leg kicks pretty regularly when his opponents come in with that type of gameplan. Barry's kicks are devastating, so I can't imagine Hague being able to contend with them.

Barry should win, and I imagine the UFC is looking to push some new heavyweights. At -325, it's a steep line, but I'm beginning to fade toward the Fagan philosophy of pushing some money onto the bigger favorites for the added income. Normally, -325 is my limit, so I'm willing to push some action toward Barry here.

Lightweights: Phillipe Nover (-360) vs. Kyle Bradley (+300)

Almost everyone has an opinion of Nover these days since his finale loss to Efrain Escudero. He's fairly well-rounded, but he lacks the takedown defense to stop powerful wrestlers. That may have been the case a few months ago, but I have no doubt that Nover is working on that aspect of his skillset.

While Bradley has the wrestling chops to put Nover on his back, Nover is still better in most areas of the game. I'd go with Nover over Bradley. Betting wise, I'm not convinced that -360 is a smart bet. Bradley still has a better shot than say Hague over Barry in my mind, yet the line is pretty spread. I'm not sure Nover is the surest bet, and at -360, it's just not worth a play in my mind.

Light Heavyweights: Krzysztof Soszynski (-155) vs. Andre Gusmao (+135)

UPDATE: This line also has more books posting it. It isn't a huge stretch from SportsInternational's lines, so I think Gusmao is still the play here.

This is another bout only on Pinnacle in Canada, but I'm sure it'll open up shortly. I like Gusmao here. He has a much more dynamic striking game, solid clinch work, great Muay Thai abilities, and he's not exactly a slouch on the floor. Unless Soszynski can hurt him the standup game, Gusmao will likely get the better of the exchanges over the course of the fight. If the line remains even, I'm betting a significant amount on Gusmao and potentially putting him into one of my parlays.

Welterweights: Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-460) vs. Brandon Wolff (+365)

The lines vary on this bout, and I even was able to get a bet on TheGreek.com on Yoshida for PLUS 365, which is an obvious error. We'll see if that holds. Anyways, Yoshida is much better in two specific skills that will likely rear their ugly heads at UFC 98. Judo and top control. Yoshida has a solid Judo game to supplement his crushing abilities on the floor. Specifically, he'll use his throws to get opponents into the fence, and he'll hold opponents there while he rains down blows. This was specifically his strategy in Cage Force, and it worked magnificently.

Wolff isn't really a finisher, and the longer this fight goes, the worse the chances are that Wolff can win this one. Barring a flash knockout, Yoshida should win. The line is insanely spread however, and it may not be worth the money. If you want to place some more significant amounts on it to earn some "interest", go right ahead. I think I'll stay away and save my money for some better odds down the line.

Lightweights: Dave Kaplan (+135) vs. George Roop (-160)

I still like Roop in this fight. He doesn't have the striking credentials that Kaplan supposedly has, but he does have a better ground game and massive length. I imagine he can keep Kaplan's blows at bay with his reach, and look for a way to submit Kaplan on the floor.

At -160, I'd venture putting a bet on Roop. The only real concern is that this could go either way, so I'd stick with a single bet here vs. a parlay inclusion.

Betting Picks

Down the undercard, I'm taking Roop, Nover, Yoshida, Barry, Larson, and Gusmao. I'll likely exclude Yoshida and Nover from my betting as I'm not unbelievably confident in Nover just yet, and Yoshida's line is insane. I'll throw significant money on Barry and Gusmao, push some smaller single bets on Roop and Larson.

I haven't decided on parlays yet, but the one standing out right now is Gusmao, Larson, and Barry, although exchanging Barry for Roop/Kaplan will get you a better profit. Larson isn't exactly a lock pick either, so there are some interesting combinations. I'd stay away from lumping huge favorites together as it doesn't truly help that much. Rolling with the closer odds and analyzing the fights is the best route to take. I constantly see some of you hitting parlays with huge favorites, which is great, but there is way more money to be made on the closer line bets, albeit bigger risks.

If you are happier with those gains, by all means continue. I don't take my advice all the time, and I do those same types of low risk bets to pad the bankroll a bit more.

For those who want to know, I'm betting big on Machida, Hughes, Miller, and Sherk. Happy Betting!

Odds are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com. Check out their site for multiple lines from multiple sites to get the best values

UPDATED: New lines from BetCRIS.com and Sportsbook in use.