UFC 98 In-Depth: Dan Miller Looks to Continue Impressive Run
The Middleweight division definitely isn't taking center stage at UFC 98 as it only has one bout through the entire 11 fight field, but the matchup between Team Quest fighter Chael Sonnen and submission-savvy Dan Miller could prove to be a showdown with much to be gained and lost.
Sonnen is considered one of the better wrestlers in the Middleweight division with a highly-credentialed background from his college days. He was a two-time University National Champion and was a Junior National runner-up, but also made the U.S. Olympic squad as an alternate. He fits the typical mold of a Team Quest fighter in using his wrestling ability to punish opponents on their back while staying away from the submission game. The only major problem with that type of style for Sonnen is that he isn't overly adept at seeing the submission attempt coming as was evident in his first bout with Paulo Filho and destruction at the hands of Demian Maia.
Miller, on the other hand, is well-versed in the art of jiu-jitsu, and he'll be the aggressor when it comes to trying to catch Sonnen via a slick transition to the submission victory. He's also one of the toughest fighters in the business. He's very hard to finish, has quick recovery, solid boxing, and knows how to work wrestlers on the floor. This should be a great matchup stylistically, but I'm sure Sonnen will once again be fearful of a quick transition catching him. Jake Rosholt, a 3x NCAA champion, was caught completely off guard by Miller.
Sonnen is coming off what was considered to be a #1 contender matchup at the time against Demian Maia, and he was subsequently crushed by Maia's aggressive and dynamic jiu-jitsu game. Another loss would likely put him in the lower half of the division, and it may put him on the verge of being cut from the UFC. In terms of gain for Sonnen in this matchup, he'll still be in a position to take fights that are relevant within the landscape of the division with a win.
Miller's stock has been on the rise. Both Dan and his brother Jim are locks for exciting wars, so my belief is that the UFC won't be too keen on dropping Dan with a loss here. He has much to gain with a win over Sonnen though as he's on the outside looking in when it comes to breaking into the upper half of the mid-echelon talent in the division. If he can win convincingly, he may be ready for a much tougher challenge toward the top.
What's this matchup truly come down to? Sonnen's submission defense IQ has always been a problem. Against Filho in the WEC, he managed to give Filho his arm multiple times, and it was a miracle that Filho didn't snap it off on the first mistake by Sonnen. Maia's gameplan also worked well against Sonnen due to his inability to recognize what danger he was in. Can we truly blame Sonnen there?
Miller's jiu-jitsu is dynamic enough to give Sonnen danger, but he also has a solid boxing background to pick apart Sonnen. It could prove to be the formula for Miller to continue his run toward the top of the division.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Good analysis
The Miller boys have become favorites of mine over the last year.
I’m picking Dan to tap Chael in this one. Miller has not had a problem submitting decorated wrestlers in the past (i.e. Rosholt), and although Sonnen is far more experienced that Rosholt, he has shown an inability to defend even basic submissions at various times.
Although Sonnen was able to fend off Filho in their second fight, Miller has far better striking and wrestling than Filho, and will not simply gas and resort to flopping to guard.
Yeah, I’m in agreeance there. I jokingly liken Sonnen’s defensive IQ to that of a rodent. He just doesn’t have the smarts to keep his arms away from submissions. He usually escapes those problematic situations with power, but as he ages… he’s losing some of it.
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by Leland Roling on May 20, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Breaking down the fight at Keyboard Kimura.
by E. Spencer Kyte on May 20, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions
The Miller brothers are couple of my favorite fighters. I figure even if Dan loses a couple in a row, the UFC won’t cut him due to the brothers putting on exciting fights, and their willingness to take fights on short notice, something that is much appreciated by the UFC. Dan by sub, second round here. Sonnen’s gameplan will probably be all about trying to stand first, then take him down when necessary, using cautious GnP. He’ll probably stick to the game plan for the first round, but I see him a) getting away from the plan and getting sloppy or b) getting caught in a sub. Either way, Dan’s submitting him.
I love me some Sexyama!
Chael Sonnen never won an NCAA championship. IIRC, he was a 1 or 2 time All American at Oregon, and his best finish was 6th place. Comparing credentials, that would put him slightly behind what Matt Hughes or Gray Maynard accomplished.
Hmm… some of the bios I’ve seen must be skipping things.
What is University Champion"?
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by Leland Roling on May 20, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Miller Brothers Trainer
Interesting that Jim and Dan both train with Martin Rooney. Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Almeida as well. Any feedback on Rooney’s book, Training For Warriors?
I like it – lots of great drills and training activities to do, as well as great stuff on nutrition and diet.
by E. Spencer Kyte on May 20, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
UPDATE
Yeah, NCAA champion is wrong. Whatever a 2x University National Champion is, Sonnen did it.
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Yeah, he was 2x University Nationals Champion. I’m thinking this is like a regional championship or something, but I have no idea.
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by Leland Roling on May 20, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

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