WEC 40: Torres vs. Mizugaki Preview

WEC 40 lands in Chicago, IL at the UIC Pavilion for yet another solid card featuring Miguel Torres defending his Bantamweight Championship belt against a ver tough ranked Bantamweight in Takeya Mizugaki. Also on the card, Chicago native Jeff Curran will take on physically intimidating Joseph Benavidez in Bantamweight action while Waggney Fabiano looks to ascend to a title shot with a win over impressive Fredson Paixao.

Miguel Torres (36-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (11-2-2): I'll try to make these quick and dirty. Mizugaki is arguably about to break into the top 5 in the Bantamweight rankings. He has strong top control, solid ground and pound abilities, and the punching power to knock opponents out.

Torres is an absolute monster. Some fans don't believe the hype, but his technical boxing is crisp when he uses it, but his chin is also iron when he tends to get wild. His jiu-jitsu is some of the most active in the division, very active guard, works for the submission constantly.

Mizugaki has shown me some very bad habits as well in past bouts. His main flaw that I feel will be exposed in this matchup is his high chin and low hands that tend to be exposed in most of his matchups. The only saving attribute is that he has some phenomenal recovery time. Look for Torres to catch Mizugaki, and either finish him via TKO, or work the submission while Mizugaki is dazed.

Jeff Curran (29-10-1) vs. Joseph Benavidez (9-0): Very intriguing matchup that could see the winner facing Torres in their next matchup. Curran will have the edge on the floor in the submission game, but Benavidez's wrestling and overall power may be the nullifying. Curran has above average striking for a grappler while Benavidez has huge power, but not a whole lot of technical ability in the striking department.

I'm going to refrain from saying Curran is on his last legs like a lot of writers have been pushing. The fact is... he lost to Mike Brown and Urijah Faber, two of the best. Benavidez's standup is my focus here. In his last fight, while he impressively shoved around his opponent, his standup became unbelievably bad to watch as the fight went on. Curran could take advantage of that. 

Waggney Fabiano (11-1) vs. Fredson Paixao (8-2): Aggressive guard work vs. very sound technical jiu-jitsu in Fabiano. This should be a chess match on the floor that all hardcore MMA fans should enjoy watching. While Paixao has the chops to defeat Fabiano, I'm more inclined to believe Fabiano's technical ability will not only help him keep away from submission attempts from Paixao, but also push him a decision win.

Shane Roller (5-1) vs. Benson Henderson (8-1): Roller's wrestling background and subsequent set of credentials obtained over his years in the Division I NCAA wrestling circuit will undoubtedly come in handy in this bout. He has some overpowering wrestling, top control, and ground and pound. He also seems to be figuring out that the guillotine choke is a solid submission to use.

Henderson is rangey in the standup department, and that's his main focus in this bout. I'll take Roller considering the fact that it's going to be very tough for anyone without similar strength to stop Roller's takedowns unless he decides to stand.

Raphael Assuncao (12-1) vs. Jameel Massouh (21-4): Assuncao is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and is regarded as arguably a top 10 Featherweight in the world. He has phenomenal jiu-jitsu on the floor with some improving striking. He'll want to take this one to the floor as Massouh doesn't have the ground game to compete with Assuncao. Massouh has some knockout power, but if Assuncao takes this one to the mat, he should be able to end it.

Bart Palaszewski (30-12) vs. Anthony Njokuani (9-2): A lot of people are calling for an upset here, and I love that pick as well. After Palaszewski's last performance at WEC 39 in which he was crushed by a short notice fighter in Ricardo Lamas, I'm a bit hesitant to go with him. Njokuani has some explosive striking from his Muay Thai base that could catch him early. Bart will need to work his grappling, which according to Curran... is solid brown belt material. Still, I can't pick Bart after such a poor performance in his last bout and the fact that he's coming in short notice on this bout.

Eddie Wineland (14-5-1) vs. Rani Yahya (12-4): Striker vs. grappler. I'll go with Yahya's submission abilities on the floor to keep Wineland at bay. Wineland's striking has never been unbelievable, but he has the power to knockout Yahya. Yahya is fairly elusive however... look for Yahya to submit Wineland on the floor.

Manny Tapia (10-1-1) vs. Akitoshi Tamura (12-7-2): I'm taking the Shooto veteran in Tamura. Highly technical and very strong, a lot of fans thought his performance against Fabiano was a complete bore. It was, in fact, a bore, but mainly due to the fact that both guys were using their technical abilities and power to nullify each other until Fabiano outlasted him. Tamura will have some mean clinch work for Tapia, and Tapia's aggressiveness may see him either on the end of a knee or on the floor feeling the power.

Mike Budnik (7-2) vs. Rafael Dias (11-5-1): Pro inline skater Mike Budnik looks to try to get back on track as he takes on standout American Top Team jiu-jitsu black belt Rafael Dias. Budnik has some solid grappling and explosiveness in his standup game, but Dias is going to be vastly better on the floor. Dias isn't exactly the easiest to finish with fists, but it's possible. I'll still go with Dias via submission.

Dominick Cruz (12-1) vs. Ivan Lopez (8-0): I've read a few reviews calling for Lopez as an upset pick here, but his strength of record is looking like a Jason Reinhardt repeat. While he has a couple of solid fights, most are against losing newcomers. Cruz, at least, has some experience against tougher opponents. While he lacks the finishing power, I think he can win here against Lopez.

Overall thoughts

Torres-Mizugaki should be interesting. If Takeya can push the leather and catch Torres, it could be a different story, but I feel like Torres is simply going to be the more technical fighter standing and catch Mizugaki early in the fight.

Curran-Benavidez, Fabiano-Paixao, and Roller-Henderson are all intriguing matchups. This should be a solid event, so tune in on Versus at 9 PM EST.