Bellator I Betting Preview

By now, you've probably realized that I'm an addict. Of course, the key to taming the beast is to simply never put any more money in than you originally invested. Bellator Fighting Championships will put on its inaugural event tonight from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The event will air on tape delay on ESPN Deportes.

Fortunately for all you fellow degenerate gamblers out there, Bellator has been included by the oddsmakers. The following lines are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Jorge Masvidal (-350) vs. Nick Agallar ( +280): "GameBred" Masvidal is definitely a guy that I've kept an eye on for quite some time. He's currently 16-3 fighting out of American Top Team in Florida. He was featured in a couple of Kimbo Slice's original backyard brawl videos, but unlike Slice, Masvidal has actually gained a substantial amount of skill in his career.

Agallar (21-5) is also a solid pickup for Bellator. He's taken on some solid competition in Matt Wiman and Eiji Mitsuoka in the past and came out victorious, but he doesn't have the strength of record of Masvidal. Both guys will be looking for the knockout.

At -350, Masvidal is a hard sell, but he's on the absolute maximum limit for betting in this case. I may lay down some solid dough on Masvidal here, but only go for it if you're willing to risk it.

Nick Gonzalez (-210) vs. Yahir Reyes (+170): Reyes (12-5) has primarily fought down in Mexico for the bulk of his career. He's largely a submission grappler with a multitude of ways to end bouts, but fighting in Mexico likely hasn't given him the top competition he needs to increase his skills.

Gonzalez (14-6) has a little bit more experience with tougher competiton as he's taken on Yves Edwards and Josh Thomson in EliteXC and Strikeforce events. Although he came out the loser, it was likely good experience that could prepare him mentally for this challenge. He's been training under Guy Mezger, and he should have a solid wrestling base with some power in his hands. Look for him to try to end this via KO.

Reyes might be a solid underdog pick here. At +170, it's a risk because there isn't a whole lot known about Reyes. He's a very good grappler on the ground, but can he withstand some pounding from Gonzalez while trying to grasp a limb? It may be worth a prospective bet.

Joe Soto (-115) vs. Ben Greer (-115): As mentioned yesterday in another piece of floated through the Fanpost system, Soto (4-0) has a solid background in wrestling, good power in his hands, and a solid template for being a powerful submission guy on the floor. He has a good background in wrestling coming from Iowa Central where guys like Cain Velasquez and Jon Jones once wrestled. He has a jiu-jitsu trainer in David Terrell, and Muay Thai training from Fairtex in San Francisco.

Greer (11-4) is a KOTC and TKO veteran with a solid wrestling background and uses Marcus Soares as his jiu-jitsu trainer. He'll be looking to impose his will on the ground.

I'm betting Soto here, and I'm going to buy into the hype. Greer only has one way to win, on the ground, while Soto can end this in multiple ways. He also looks to have the power advantage.

Estevan Payan (+135) vs. Luis Palomino (-165): Payan is currently 6-1 out of Arizona Combat Sports where he trains with guys such as Ryan Bader, Jamie Varner, and most recently arriving Carlos Condit. He was an infantryman in the military serving three tours in Iraq.

Palomino (9-4) has earned the nickname "Baboon" which somehow biasly wants me to bet against him. Palomino has some solid power in the standup game and on the ground, so he'll likely be looking to punch out Payan early. He has a boxing background stemming from his childhood, and he's added jiu-jitsu over the years and has been a quick study. He was winning jiu-jitsu tournaments only six months after taking up the martial art. He is also apparently Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's protege at his gym in Florida.

Tough fight to call. Payan has the chops to beat Palomino, but the whole "Nogueira" protege moniker is off setting. This may be a fight to stay away from due to the volatility of Palomino. He could win easily, or get upset as his record indicates.

Eddie Alvarez (-925) vs. Greg Loughran (+600): Don't bet on this fight, it's not worth it. Alvarez is the clear favorite for a reason. Loughran hasn't faced great competition, he's susceptible to the submission, but he's more than likely going to be susceptible to eating punches from a much stronger Alvarez. 

Toby Imada (-170) vs. Alonzo Martinez (+140): Imada rides a six-fight win streak into this bout for an overall record of 20-11. He's mainly a submission grappler on the floor with wins over lower level competition, but has never broken through against tougher fighters.

Alonzo Martinez is 22-12-1 with an extensive submission game. Like Imada, he'll be looking for the ground to win, so it'll depend who can throw more leather in this matchup. Amazingly, this is a pretty even matchup, I'd give Imada the nod because he shows better standup.

Any picks?

Solid betting card here with some good parlay options. Imada, Palomino, Soto, Reyes/Gonzalez, and Masvidal are all solid bets. I will likely throw a small bet on Reyes pulling off a bit upset, but Masvidal, Soto, Gonzalez or Masvidal, Soto, Imada/Martinez are the parlay plays here. Soto will get some single bet action from me as well.

Happy Betting everyone!