It seems that from the opinions of the pros, to the opinions of MMA commentators and fans, that Chuck is a prohibitive favourite in this fight. Many people have written Shogun off based on his last 2 (admittedly poor) fights in the UFC and the fact that stylistically this is meant to be a bad fight for Shogun.

Addressing the first issue, people have debated how much of an effect his ACL injury had on his conditioning, so I'm reluctant to make definitive statements. What I will say is that with the rehabbing involved with such an injury, which I believe occurred twice within a period of 18 months or so, it certainly would have hampered his strength and conditioning programme, even if this was not the only reason for his lack of conditioning. It's also fairly likely that he underestimated both of his opponents, which is not a surprise; almost everyone thought he would win those fights easily - no doubt himself included.

Looking at those fights in any different way than above, by suggesting that Shogun may be in decline or that his performances in Pride were enhanced by drugs is plausible but I think unlikely. At only 27 and having absorbed not an excessive amount of punishment in his career, there is no reason why Shogun should be in any type of decline. Indeed, there is no reason why with the right training and motivation Shogun should not improve in the future. The issue of drugs is certainly more sketchy and to address it as a reason for his performances would just be speculation on my part so I'll leave it alone.

To discuss it stylistically, people seem to be downplaying Shogun's striking skills significantly. While he has a very solid grappling game, his striking and top game are his most offensive weapons so to assume that Shogun's only chance of winning this fight is to take Chuck down (which as we know, time and again, has proven to be so difficult) is inaccurate. As the Jackson camp realised, the way to beat Chuck is to outstrike him. People also say that without the knockout power in his hands that Evans and Jackson have standing will be a dangerous place for Shogun. It will be, but Shogun has a solid chin and people were saying the same things before Jardine fought Chuck. People have also said that Shogun's aggressive Muay Thai style should work well for Chuck's counter-punching style. I think this is also debatable. Going back to Pride when Chuck fought Rampage for the first time, Rampage was extremely aggressive in his striking style against Chuck and ended up dominating the standup. In Chuck's more recent fight against Jardine, Jardine was able to utilise leg kicks effectively, which no doubt will also be a significant part of Shogun's standing weaponry. The point many people have made that Shogun may struggle to dominate the clinch, which tended in Pride to be one of his main strengths, seems reasonable, but as stated above, this isn't necessairly his only means of winning on the feet.

Like a lot of fights it's not hard to imagine this fight going either way. Perhaps Chuck will show that he hasn't necessairly declined but that there were simply holes in his game that needed to be filled. Who knows, perhaps Chuck will incorporate the takedowns and elements of ground work he has been training at ATT - it's certainly possible - but come tonight it won't surprise me if the much younger Shogun is the one who has shown the greatest improvement out of the two from their previous fights and comes away with the decision win or TKO.