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Qualifying the Challenger: Thales Leites

 

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This article is the first in what may become a regular series. In this article I will evaluate title challengers and qualify them as threats to their opponents. The purpose of this is to illustrate the legitimacy of fighters that may otherwise be overlooked; be it from a lack of public interest, lack of available information, or having a heavy favorite as their opponent. The fact remains that no fighter at this level of competition receives a title shot without a great deal of legitimacy. Today, my subject is Saturday's challenger to Anderson Silva's 185 pound crown; Brazilian BJJ maverick Thales Leites.

 

At 27 years of age, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt and Nova Unaio trained Thales Leites has accumulated an impressive record of 14 wins and only one loss, with key victories over Pele Landi-Jons and Nate Marquardt and his only loss coming at the hands of Martin Kampmann in 2006. Leites, a veteran of Shooto, MARS, Rumble on the Rock and Jungle Fight, is 5-1 in the UFC's octagon. Of his 14 total victories, nine have come by way of submission, with 11 total stoppages.

 

Offensive Abilities

Possessing great all-around BJJ submission profieciency, Leites' favorite maneuver is widely considered the arm triangle, which he has used to dispatch four of his previous opponents (with armbar ranking second at three total submissions). At times, Leites has flashed powerful standing strikes, through his training in Muay Thai kickboxing, though his technical profieciency has left something to be desired. It is likely that he has spent a lot of time training to overcome his striking deficiencies due to his impending bout with Anderson Silva.

 

Defensive Abilities

His chin and standing defense are tested, having absorbed and defended blows from vicious strikers such as Landi-Jons, Marquardt and Kampmann, and having never been stopped in a bout. Leites was famously illegally kneed by Nate Marquardt in a controversial June 2008 bout at UFC 85 in London England. Leites absorbed the devestating knee and went on to win a split decision over Marquardt. His BJJ defense is presumed to be excellent, though untested. He is considered to be in elite company among submission specialists in the UFC's middleweight division.

 

The Road to Victory

Thales is almost entirely unlikely to find a path to the 185 crown by way of striking, as Anderson Silva is without equal in his striking decision-making, accuracy and force. It is likely, however, that he will be forced to use striking to set up his inevitable take down attempts. Possessing a chin and defense proven capable of taking damage, Thales could prove capable of weathering The Spider's opening salvos (and to an increasingly lesser degree, subsequent onslaughts) and somehow coerce him to the mat. In doing so, Leites has the abilities necessary to potentially ensnare Silva in one or several submission attempts, and quite possibly finish him (Silva has been finished by way of submission twice in four career losses). In waging his war on the mat, Leites must use ground and pound striking to soften Silva's submission defense and pass his guard; using Travis Lutter's February 2007 fight with The Spider as a template.

 

The Road to Failure

Though Leites has superb BJJ and ranks among the top 10 in UFC BJJ-for-MMA skills, in 15 previous career bouts he has not faced an individual with the BJJ skills of Anderson Silva. He has faced some dangerous strikers in his brief career, and still; none the likes of Anderson Silva, who is without parallel. If Leites doesn't approach the standing game defensively (while trading some blows and remaining conservative) and work for a takedown, his night will be brief. Silva is accurate and elusive, so this task is arduous. Additionally, if Leites is expecting the same Anderson Silva that faced Travis Lutter 26 months ago to show up this coming Saturday at UFC 97, he's going to wake up in the hospital wondering what happened. Anderson Silva is a BJJ black belt under the Nogueria's and an obsessive training perfectionist, so Leites should approach the fight expecting that any weaknesses Silva has possessed in the past he has trained to eliminate.

 

Thales Leites Career Statistics:

Career Win Percentage - 93.3%
UFC Win Percentage - 83.3%

Total Fights won by Submission Percentage - 60%
Total Fights won by Stoppage Percentage - 73.3%

Combined Opponent Win/Loss/Draw Record - 231-147-19
Total Opponent Winning Percentage - 58.2%

Combined UFC Opponent Win/Loss/Draw Record - 81-28-2
UFC Opponent Winning Percentage - 73.3%

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

Comment 31 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Great analysis!

Since you have put such though into Thales and his abilities, do you think the posted odds accurate?

Anderson Silva – 600
Thales Leites + 350

by No Shit MMA on Apr 14, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I’ve seen Leites as high as +475.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Apr 14, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Unless you’re a total bum, I’ll probably bet you if you’re +400 and up, because it’s a fucking fight and one guy will win at least once out of five if he’s trained and in shape and serious.

by Derek Suboticki on Apr 14, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know oddsmakers are reluctant, and deservedly so, of giving anyone much of a chance to beat Anderson Silva. Do I think it’s possible that Leites could beat Silva? Yes, he has the skills necessary to beat anyone in the world at 185. Do I think it’s as unlikely as the odds suggest? I would consider any challenger in the world at 185 to have similar odds against Anderson Silva, with the possible exception of Dan Henderson, Gegard Mousasi or Wanderlei. Heavily favored odds like these are less reflective of Leites abilities than they are of Silva’s. I thought I could use this article to illustrate that Leites is a very threatening opponent on any given night, but his chances of beating Anderson Silva are likely low. I think that in losing, he could still come out being considered a better fighter than he was going in.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 14, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yes!

Great post, great comment. Rec’d both ways.

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Apr 15, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

BTW, I'm picking Anderson

and have a good amount of money on him, which is why I appreciate this post and it’s accompanying context all the more. WAR INFORMED FANS!

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Apr 15, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

The first line opened at -275. Early betting pushed it to -450 where it hovered for awhile until the past week or so where it’s at -550 or worse.

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Apr 15, 2009 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

You think it’ll dip even further, or the line on Leites will get even better?

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 15, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

You’ll be enjoying tonight’s fanpost that I’ll be pushing. It’ll be a nice tool for these types of articles, especially with the statistical side. I can’t wait to push it tonight.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Apr 14, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Looking forward to your post Leland!

So what are your picks for the rest of the card guys?

by No Shit MMA on Apr 14, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions  

I’ll likely make those on Saturday during the day. Got a few to mull over before then.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 14, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Silva, Liddell, Cane, MacDonald, Kang, and Marshall so far. I haven’t finished researching the others.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Apr 14, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

we have Sam Stout on the show tonight (if that helps you become more familiar with him), we will be asking him about his training, how he is preparing for the fight … but, the show is not particularly serious (the wayne’s world of MMA shows), so don’t look for anything profound to come out of the interview …

by No Shit MMA on Apr 14, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I haven’t caught your show yet, but if you are anything like Wayne’s World, you win.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Apr 15, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

My picks

First tier: Anderson, Kongo, Stout, Lidell, Quarry

Second: Krzysztof, Loiseau, Bocek

Third: Kang, Cantwell

Based on order of confidence.

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Apr 15, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

What are your bets other than Silva? Going to create a post regarding your wagers?

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 15, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not so sure about Kongo or Krzysztof even winning. I also think Loiseau is no where near a lock.

by EvilMonkey on Apr 15, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ten comments and zero rec’s.. Ouch. That other Leites post that went up five minutes before mine must have killed me.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 14, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

It happens to the best of us. You’ll shake it off.

by Derek Suboticki on Apr 14, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I'm good now

Two pity rec’s are all I needed after creating the graphic and compiling those stats.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 15, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah genki sudo didn't get much love either haha.

i like this post and you’ll get a rec from me… you should continue the series.. :)

by Anton Tabuena on Apr 14, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Consider yourself Rec'd

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Apr 15, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Would double rec for cool graphic

Sadly, not an option. So will rec comment too.

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Apr 15, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

It was magically erased by Marquardt’s glove.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 15, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

motion blur ate up his elbow and his fist.. haha.

..but seriously though, this should’ve been fronted. (although they already had a leites post so maybe that’s the reason they didn’t)

by Anton Tabuena on Apr 15, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I was ten minutes too late, after writing/editing/creating the graphic for about an hour. That’s the way it goes sometimes.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 15, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thales Leites

has a much better chance of winning than most people think.

AS was on top of the game but his streak has to come to an end at some point. I might sound like a retard by Sunday by I seriously think Leites will pull off a huge upset.

I don’t want him to, tbh, because I love AS but it just seems that because everyone is writing off Leites AS is going to get too cocky and some crazy shit will happen.

by rainmaker6 on Apr 15, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions  

then again

I thought AS would lose to Dan Henderson and I was damn wrong….so…..

by rainmaker6 on Apr 15, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well..

You’re still one of the first people I’ve seen come out and actually pick Leites. Many people (like myself) are saying that he’s not getting enough credit and has the tools to succeed, but you actually had the balls to pick him. You should think about putting some money down if you really feel he’s going to win. That line might improve by Saturday.

I poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Apr 15, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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