Making Sense of the UFC HW Division (w/ poll)
by klown on Mar 8, 2009 8:47 PM EDT
78 comments
We start with a linear or near-linear ranking of the Top 10 Heavies of the UFC.
1. Mir
2. Nogueira
3. Lesnar
4. Couture
5. Santos
6. Carwin
7. Gonzaga
8. Velasquez
9. Herring
10. Kongo
Correction: Thanks to Chris Nelson's reminder I've dropped references to Jake O'Brien, who has moved to LHW.
Next, here are some upcoming fights scheduled for this summer:
Mir vs Lesnar Although Mir's injury has delayed the fight, there's no indication or reason the fight will be canceled. The winner is the undisputed Heavyweight champion of the UFC, and the #2 HW in the world after Fedor. It's a risky fight to predict because we are still discovering Lesnar's potential, but Mir certainly has the chance to (re)burst the Lesnar bubble.
Nogueira vs Couture The fight for 3rd place. Both are declining superstars of MMA. Stylistically, it's a classic American vs Brazilian match-up, with the American specializing in Greco-Roman wrestling and dirty boxing, and the Brazilian excelling in Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu. It's possible Couture will succumb to a submission from the master who guillotined Sylvia and survived Fedor twice. It's more likely Couture will take this one by decision or TKO. It's not clear where either fighter goes from here. It will depend on their performance and their willingness to keep fighting.
Velasquez vs Herring This fight resembles the Carwin-Gonzaga fight in that Velasquez and Carwin are much-heralded rising stars representing the new generation of UFC HWs, and neither had been truly tested until Carwin knocked out Gonzaga. Velasquez's greatest victory so far is over O'Brien, and besting Herring will establish him as a contender, while a loss will temporarily postpone his dreams of a title shot.
Kongo vs Hardonk Kongo needs to prove whether he deserves to be taken seriously. His recent results consist of a decision win over CroCop, a decision loss to Herring and TKO of the overmatched al-Turk. If Kongo wins, he should be matched against a serious contender, like Carwin or Santos. A loss relegates Kongo to a Herring-like gatekeeper role.
These fights will go a long way toward establishing a clear linear hierarchy at the top of the HW division.
This leaves the following top UFC heavies with no set match-ups.
Junior dos Santos Santos uppercut his way into the Top 10 and eliminated Werdum from the UFC in the process. Just in case his win was a fluke, he was then matched against UFC debutant Struve and overwhelmed the kid. It's time to take Santos seriously and give him some top competition. I would match him against Carwin in fight to determine the #1 contender.
Mirko CroCop The legendary kickboxer is set to make his return at UFC 100 in Germany. The question remains, against who? This depends on CroCop's intentions, and the UFC's plans, which will fall into one of the following categories.
- Showcase: If they want to provide CroCop with a squash match - always a risky move in MMA - there are plenty of subpar competitors like Grove, Struve and at-Turk. CroCop still has it in him to knock these guys silly.
- Contention: If he is interested in truly competing for the belt, CroCopmust face a hungry riser like Carwin or Santos, or else re-match Kongo. A win over any of these puts him one win away from a title shot.
- Superfight: If the point is to have an epic megafight or two before retirement, fights against fellow old-timers like Couture and Nogueira stand out. However both will be fighting near UFC 100. A similar option would be to take on former PRIDE comrade Mark Coleman.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Heath herring is a top 15 hw while Gonzaga just sucks.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on Mar 8, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gonzaga sure was a consensus top ten heavyweight going into UFC 96.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 8, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By who..?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on Mar 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Choi’d.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
by Brett Jones on Mar 9, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll jump on that too!
If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.
by BJJDenver on Mar 9, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ten of the sixteen sites that made up the February Meta-Rankings for starters…
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 8, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While on the subject, which 16 sites make up the meta rankings?
by michaelgaryscott on Mar 9, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In February for the heavyweight division: Cage Potato, Fight Matrix, Fight Magazine, Five Ounces of Pain, Inside MMA, MMA 4 Real, MMA ELO, MMA Fighting, MMA on Tap, MMA Playground, MMA Rocks, MMA Weekly, Sherdog, TAGG Radio, Total MMA & WAMMA.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 9, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who could count that there's only half a dozen decent heavyweights around.
If you see Mark Coleman in person, drop $5 on the floor and watch the fun as he tries in vain to bend down and pick it up.
by Ozzz on Mar 9, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dos Santos Vs. Gonzaga?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on Mar 8, 2009 8:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hasn't Gonzaga suffered enough?
If you see Mark Coleman in person, drop $5 on the floor and watch the fun as he tries in vain to bend down and pick it up.
by Ozzz on Mar 9, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jake O’Brien moved down to 205, he beat Christian Wellisch last month.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 8, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah they both got bounced out of the division, by Velasquez and Carwin ironically.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 8, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post, btw. I like the idea of Dos Santos vs. Carwin, or if Velasquez beats Herring maybe Velasquez vs. Carwin, but I’m not sure the UFC should be in such a rush to eliminate contenders. Outside of the guys you’ve listed who have been impressive/on hot streaks, the division isn’t nearly as deep as it’s appeared lately.
Jordan Breen made a good point last night – the UFC would be lucky to have a team of Heath Herring clones to fight all their contenders. He’s the perfect gatekeeper.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 8, 2009 9:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kongo
If he loses to Hardonk, he’s out of the title picture. But his cool name and intimidating appearance will guarantee him a continued career as a gatekeeper, like Herring.
Kongo could then be matched against Gonzaga or the loser of Mir-Lesnar for some entertaining fights. If Herring beats Velasquez, the latter could also be matched against Kongo for an exciting rebound fight for both fighters.
by klown on Mar 8, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nogueira's not a muay thai guy
he trains straight boxing.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
by Kid Nate on Mar 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Big Nog trains Muay Thai with instructor Luiz Alves.
It’s Lil Nog who focuses more on boxing and has an amateur record.
by klown on Mar 8, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then why is Lil Nog knocking people out with knees while Big Nog never seems to throw anything but hands.
Maybe its the ol’ PRIDE switcheroo again.
by SamCupitt on Mar 9, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't he train straight 'hit me in the face for ten minutes..'
‘…and then I’ll get you in an ankle lock’?
If you see Mark Coleman in person, drop $5 on the floor and watch the fun as he tries in vain to bend down and pick it up.
by Ozzz on Mar 9, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post, but do you think Pat Barry deserves a mention? He is a very good striker, though I suspect that ultimately he’ll prove too small for this division, especially with the triumvirate of terror (Carwin, Lesnar, and Velasquez).
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Mar 8, 2009 9:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Give it one more fight
He’ll be in the conversation before long.
"I hit [Evensen], and you could just see it in his head. He went, 'Oh, man. We don't have to do this anymore. I'm good. Thanks for having me. I'm going to go home now." -Pat "The Real Techno Viking" Berry
by Blackout612 on Mar 8, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
he’s a bit too small no?
by rainmaker6 on Mar 9, 2009 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Set him up against Vera.
Kickfight!
If you see Mark Coleman in person, drop $5 on the floor and watch the fun as he tries in vain to bend down and pick it up.
by Ozzz on Mar 9, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
vera is at LHW..
so unless barry decides to go down. it wont happen.
by Anton Tabuena on Mar 9, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Vera goes up again.
If you see Mark Coleman in person, drop $5 on the floor and watch the fun as he tries in vain to bend down and pick it up.
by Ozzz on Mar 10, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technoviking!
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Mar 9, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think the Dos is part of his last name, not his first. :)
…i also dont think mir has what it takes to beat lesnar again..
maybe carwin can, cause with that guy, all it takes is one punch, and i think they’d be pretty even on wrestling..maybe..
and i’d love to see dos santos vs cro cop.. or tito vs either guy just to see his head fly off. :)
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Mar 8, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think wrestling is even between Carwin and Lesnar.
We don’t have much footage of Carwin, obviously, but Lesnar uses wrestling for complete positional dominance, while Carwin seems to use it for defense (like when he’s stunned) or to achieve a full mount, which is an inherently volatile position. Lesnar is more the type to get you in side mount and grind on your face for five minutes, or just stay in top position on a turtle’d opponent like he did in the Herring fight. Carwin seems to use his wrestling to keep his feet, where he can deliver those absolutely unfair power punches.
All told, Carwin looks like he’s got more raw power in his punches than Brock (insane as that may sound) but his technique is really, REALLY raw at this point. But if it becomes a wrestling match, I give a solid edge to Brock.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on Mar 8, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am very, very excited for the possibility of Carwin/Lesnar. Even more to see Shane kill the winner of Kongo/Hardonk.
by subo on Mar 9, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup.. carwin vs kongo before he even gets to sniff the title..
Although I think Kongo becomes the favorite here.. He has a pretty durable chin and he’s more technical with his striking.. but if carwin lands that punch.. Goodnight..
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Mar 9, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of if Carwin you know… takes Kongo down.
by SamCupitt on Mar 9, 2009 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What was Carwin’s listed reach last night? How does it compare to Lesnar’s telescopic arms?
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Mar 9, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Brock has a one inch reach advantage at 81 inches.
by Johann on Mar 9, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brock’s reach is 85 inches.
"My job is a decision-making job, and as a result, I make a lot of decisions." --George W. Bush, The Decider, Lancaster, Pa., Oct. 3, 2007
by lovingmma25 on Mar 9, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Randy mentioned he didn’t expect Lesnar’s reach to be so large, and if you watch the Herring punch he was caught with his pants down due to thinking Lesnar couldn’t hit him with power from that distance.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Mar 9, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wikipedia is so reliable.
Brock is a Gorilla.
by Johann on Mar 10, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although I’m excited for dos Santos, I think putting him at 5 is a little premature. He proved the KO of Werdum was no fluke but I feel he needs another win over a top HW to be put in contention. I would love to see him against Cro Cop, somebody would get KTFO.
by midwestbred on Mar 8, 2009 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
(dos) Santos vs CroCop!
I agree with weoweoweo and midwestbred that Santos vs CroCop could be awesome. It especially makes sense if CroCop is intending to seriously re-embark on the road to title contention. And I really hope he does.
By the reasoning I use in my rankings, knocking out Werdum alone gets Santos a spot in the UFC Top 5 and the HW Top 10 in MMA generally. Struve was just icing on the cake. But I agree that he needs another win over a top ranked fighter before he earns title contention. I suggested Carwin but CroCop would be cool too. A 3-fight win streak (especially if the 3rd is as decisive as the first 2) over Werdum, Struve and Carwin/CroCop should certainly entitle you to a shot at the HW crown. Assuming the champion at the time is Mir or Lesnar, those are some pretty tantalizing potential fights.
I’ll go on the record and say Santos has one of the best chances of unseating Lesnar, due to his combination of knockout power and submission skill. As for his last name, I know “dos Santos” is more correct, but Santos is shorter :)
by klown on Mar 8, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree. Cro Cop is coming back for a farewell fight. He shouldn’t be fighting anybody that doesn’t have a name and that already isn’t in the prime or twilight of their careers (while still being a competitive matchup). Dos Santos doesn’t match much of that. I’d go with Tito Ortiz or Mark Coleman.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Mar 9, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what the plan is for CroCop. If he wants to try another title run, Santos is a logical match-up. But if it’s a farewell fight, Coleman is the ideal opponent. I hadn’t considered Ortiz but that’s a good idea.
by klown on Mar 9, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he had explicitly stated that he was wanting one more fight and then to retire. If is wanting another run at the title, then I agree, Dos Santos would be a good choice.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Mar 9, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would be a good fight for dos santos.. not for cro cop..
That has little upside for him.. As weird as it sounds, a win over tito would give crocop more recognition than winning over dos santos..
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Mar 9, 2009 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh certainly as far as beating a name. But if Cro Cop was trying to go after the HW title again, then he would probably have the best chance against Dos Santos (as opposed to Carwin, Velasquez, or Kongo).
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Mar 9, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matching Coleman against Cro Cop for a second time would just be mean. I still can’t get the image of Shogun getting an easy double leg takedown on Coleman because he was just too slow to react.
by SamCupitt on Mar 9, 2009 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how bout shogun eating uberslow coleman jabs because he was just too slow to react?
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Mar 9, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You think Liddell is looking for...
…uber-slow training partners right now?
I have visions of him rolling with a three-toed sloth, just to get tuned for Rua.
If you see Mark Coleman in person, drop $5 on the floor and watch the fun as he tries in vain to bend down and pick it up.
by Ozzz on Mar 9, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you mean the jabs that looked like they were in bullet time slo mo…but were actually real time?
by soadtrails on Mar 9, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'd prefer Dos Santos-Velasquez
For me Carwin proved he belonged last night by taking out Gonzaga in under 2 minutes, let him fight the winner of DS-Cain for a true #1 contender match. Assuming Cain takes care of Herring. Of course that might be a ways off but we have time with Mir-Lesnar moving back to July.
by ufc4 on Mar 9, 2009 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“By the reasoning I use in my rankings, knocking out Werdum alone gets Santos a spot in the UFC Top 5 and the HW Top 10 in MMA generally.”
I’d love to hear more of your reasoning.
by Simco on Mar 9, 2009 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So what if Couture beats Noguiera and Mir beats Lesnar, Couture can’t jump Lesnar right?
by ufc4 on Mar 9, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn’t say anything about blocking.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 9, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The system’s not a perfect science. There are some subjective calls, like which fighter to rank higher when they both hold wins over the next best fighter, or how to rank fighters who aren’t part of the same chain, i.e. haven’t fought each other or any common opponents.
About leapfrogging fighters to whom you’ve lost in the past, I believe in giving weight to more recent fights over fights further in the past.
by klown on Mar 9, 2009 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn’t Cro Cop fighting on UFC 99, not UFC 100?
by DrTopo on Mar 9, 2009 1:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Supposedly. They still haven’t officially announced him or his opponent.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 9, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he meant to say 99, obviously 100 isn’t in Germany.
by ufc4 on Mar 9, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a sad day
86 total votes and Couture doesn’t even have 1…
by midwestbred on Mar 9, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
do you see him beating brock? ..i dont..
(and you guys should also vote here! ..sorry i had to plug haha)
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Mar 9, 2009 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not say it isnt true, just didn’t think this day would come so soon.
by midwestbred on Mar 9, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not Sad
Just the truth.
http://www.mmaforreal.com
by Kelvin Hunt on Mar 9, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And a pro wrestler is lapping the field. Welcome to 2009 in MMA.
by subo on Mar 9, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
e-v-o-l-u-t-i-o-n
If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.
by BJJDenver on Mar 9, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
My top 10:
1. Mir
2. Lesnar
3. Couture
4. Nog
5. Carwin
6. dos Santos
7. Gonzaga
8. Velasquez
9. Kongo
10. Herring
Nog looked terrible in his last fight, and Couture should be ranked ahead of him. I think Kongo would beat Herring in a rematch.
by michaelgaryscott on Mar 9, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
UFC HW Division Ranked by Fight Matrix Points:
1. Frank Mir
2. Brock Lesnar
3. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
4. Randy Couture
5. Junior dos Santos
6. Shane Carwin
7. Cheick Kongo
8. Heath Herring
9. Gabriel Gonzaga
10. Cain Velasquez
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 9, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Upcoming fights:
1 vs. 2
3 vs. 4
7 vs. 12 (Hardonk)
8 vs. 10
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 9, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who has Gonzaga beat of mention besides Cro Cop??
by J_Maddux on Mar 10, 2009 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carmelo Marrero, Fabiano Scherner, even the wins over Josh Hendicks and Justin McCully were impressive. They’re not top-level heavyweights but they’re not total scrubs either and Gonzaga absolutely murdered them both of them.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 10, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Truth is, he’s only ranked for beating CroCop.
It’s the same reason Kongo is ranked. Who else has HE beaten?
And Herring is only up there for beating Kongo.
And Velasquez is only up there for beating O’Brien, who beat Herring.
So if beating CroCop doesn’t get you a spot in the Top 10, scratch all those guys off the list.
by klown on Mar 10, 2009 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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