Why i'm picking Mark Munoz

Mark Munoz is set to face Matt Hamill in less than 24 hours, and most people think Hamill takes this easy.  Odds have it at munoz being a +150 underdog, and thats understandably so. Mark Munoz is smaller and this is his first UFC fight. Matt Hamill has more experience, more fights, and have faced better competition.  

On paper, this seems to be another wrestler vs wrestler match, but i dont see this fight being won by wrestling alone. I see this being won by the person who mixes it up better. I think that the person who uses the 'in-betweens' and the transitions better would definitely win.

Munoz was a Division 1 wrestler, and Hamil was division 3. But it also seems like Hamill has decided to abandon using his wrestling and takedowns. Hamill never tried to shoot or take Reese Andy down. He was content to strike with Rich Franklin who was obviously a better striker. Matt is also bigger than Rich, but he didn't use that to his advantage. 

Hamill will probably employ the same predictable game plan, walk in to a punch to try and throw his own. Munoz on the other hand, would be surely looking to strike then set up take downs and gnp. Munoz is very green, but his opponent will be the same slow, sloppy, kickboxing hamill we saw. This is why i think transitions and the other disciplines would favor Munoz.

Luke Thomas said:

Hamill may have a relatively narrow offensive capability compared to other light heavyweights, but he also has more MMA experience and a far more usable boxing arsenal than Munoz (I've yet to see Munoz demonstrate any comfort in the standing realm). 

And Mike Fagan added that:

Hamill, should have a pretty significant edge on the feet.

This is where i think they're both wrong. Hamill did outstrike bisping on one round, sure, but his recent outings surely wouldn't show that he'll have "a significant edge" in the striking department over ANYONE.

While there is little tape on Munoz to see much of his stand up, he has been training with Freddie roach for about half a year or so to improve his striking. What has hamil shown us in his several fights in the UFC? In his last two fights, he moves forward, always punches with his hands down and seems content to get hit in order to throw a punch of his own.

mmaweekly has this, from munoz:

Boxing has been developing for me as of late, I’ve been picking everything up and weaving it into my wrestling. Working with Freddie opens my eyes to a bunch of different techniques and angles. His top thing is footwork, being able to get the angles.

Munoz says the key is pushing back before Hamill begins to build momentum.

There’s not going to be a second that I’m going to want to take pressure off.

I love being the underdog, I love the fact that nobody knows about me. For me, the level of preparedness is key. I could care less if people don’t know me… they’ll know me after the fight.

His opponent wont take him down. He will just come forward with his hands down. He's slow and doesnt have good offense or defense. I think that what he mentioned is the perfect plan to beat Hamill. If Munoz works the angles well and mixes up the strikes with his superior wrestling, he'll take this, and shock a lot of people.

Hamill will be what Bonnar was for Jon Jones, a good enough name to jump start his hype train..