Gambling Spotlight: UFC 96

I suspect the most repeated analysis of this fight will be this: Quinton Jackson struggled with Forrest Griffin's leg kicks and Keith Jardine loves to throw leg kicks.  It will be overstated.  Yes, Griffin did effectively use leg kicks in his fight with Jackson, but we have to look at the context of the overall fight.  For starters, Jackson arguably won the fight anyway.  Second, the whole nature of the fight changed 30 seconds into round two when Griffin landed a perfect (i.e. lucky) kick to the outside of Jackson's knee.  And still, after Jackson recovered from the effects, he fought effectively.

The leg kick can be an effective means of immobilizing an opponent.  Just look at Thiago Alves or vintage Mirko Filipovic.  Jardine utilizes his leg kicks more like jabs though.  And as we saw in the Alexander and Silva fights, he has little means for stopping an opponent from getting inside and busting his face up.

That leads us to the next big issue in the fight: Jardine's glass chin.  A much smaller Wanderlei Silva and a green brawler named Houston both not only knocked him out, but devastated him with their fists.  Jackson's run in the UFC has been filled with highlight KO's over Silva, Chuck Liddell, and Marvin Eastman.  Jackson only needs to land a clean hook or uppercut to Jardine's chin to end the fight.

That said, the line is fairly well adjusted at this point.  For all his problems with his chin, Jardine is still a tough guy and Greg Jackson has a now legendary ability to gameplan for fights.  If you're aggressive, I might play Jackson up to -350.

Matt Hamill #17 Light Heavyweight		Mark Munoz
-165 (DOG)	Best Line	+150 (5D)
32	Age	31
6'1"	Height	6'0"
5 - 2 - 0	Record	5 - 0 - 0
4 / 0	TKO / SUB	3 / 0
Team Punishment	Camp	Ultimate Fitness
W - Andy (TKO) L - Franklin (TKO) W - Boetsch (TKO)	Last 3 Fights	W - Barros (TKO) W - Grigsby (TKO) W - Rubalcava (UD)

This fight reminds me of the Hazelett/McCrory bout from UFC 91 in the sense that you have two very similar fighters, though one's a bit better and has more experience. Both guys are big, strong wrestlers with sloppy standup. Hamill, however, should have a pretty significant edge on the feet.

There's not a lot of tape on Munoz, so the analysis can't go much deeper. However, from what I've heard and seen from Munoz, I think Hamill's good for a unit here. Munoz may be a better pure wrestler (he certainly has a better pedigree), but I think their MMA wrestling will cancel each other out. Technically, Hamill's standup is awful (in particular he drops his hands far too often), but he has shown it to be effective when he needs it to be.

I'm really lost in handicapping this.  If size weren't an issue, I think Gonzaga's a fairly big favorite.  Gabe's a big dude, but Carwin's a BIG DUDE.  Factor in Carwin's wrestling, lack of quality opposition, and enormous power and Gonzaga's gas tank and willingness to give up in a fight, and we have lots of questions that need answers.  

Carwin is a Jackson fighter, and there's no doubt Greg's been studying the Couture fight.  The more I think about the fight, the more I picture Carwin using his size and wrestling to wear out Gonzaga over the first five to eight minutes.  At that point, Gonzaga gasses and Carwin either ground-n-pounds his way to victory or lands a big shot on the feet.  

It's also easy to forget that outside of Mirko Filipovic (which, in retrospect, is a very good style matchup for him), Gonzaga hasn't beaten anyone of notable caliber either, though he certainly looked good in spots against Couture and the second fight with Werdum.

I like a small half-unit play on Carwin, and a full unit if he moves up to +170.  You'll be wading through Carwin's unknowns (How good is his ground game?  Can he go past 2:30?), but I think his size, wrestling, and power are going to give Gonzaga problems here.

In a battle between two lightweight wrestling prospects, I like the more well-rounded fighter from Jersey.  Maynard's mostly gotten by with his size and wrestling, and I think Miller can neutralize him in the wrestling department, if not stifle him with his BJJ if it does hit the floor.  If nothing else, Maynard's one dimensional enough that he has to rely on winning a decision, and it's worth a small play on Miller that he can edge out two of three rounds.  Take Miller for half a unit.