Ryan Madigan vs. Tamdan McCrory



Kid Nate: I've never been as impressed by McCrory as some -- he's long and rangy but isn't that disciplined a fighter and relies on overwhelming his opponents with an early blitz. Nor is McCrory's grappling that remarkable. Madigan on the otherhand appears to be primarily a striker who's had success on the regional circuit and even has a couple of submission wins.  McCrory will have a reach advantage, but I'm betting that Madigan won't be as vulnerable to a spaz-rush as some. All the same, I'm going with the UFC veteran here, McCrory by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: I've been on both sides of the McCrory fence.  I've seen him as a guy who was worse than he really is and I've also seen him as a guy who is better than he really is.  The truth about him is that he is a guy who is pretty much exactly where he should be, on the low side of UFC undercards.  He's got some decent technique and his length is a nice tool to have but he can be beaten on the feet or on the ground.  Madigan can bang a little bit but he isn't a complete enough guy to beat Tamdan.  McCrory by TKO, round 1.

Mike Rome: This is the kind of fight McCrory wins.  He's fighting a guy whose only real weapon is striking, and McCrory is better there.  McCrory by TKO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: I've seen Madigan's NAAFS: Caged Fury 5 fight and he looked awesome. But when you factor in the UFC debut jitters and the fact that Madigan has a loss in his past by TKO to Dave Zuninga. I'm going with McCrory. McCrory by experience.

Michael Fagan: Don't know much about Madigan outside of him being a kickboxer (World Combat League veteran!).  McCrory should be able to to handle him, though, as he struggles more with guys who have better ground skills.  Tamdan McCrory by submission, round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  McCrory is a pretty damn good fighter with a pretty damn good nickname - "The Barncat."  I'm guessing that Madigan has yet to face anyone as complete as McCrory.  The Barncat's length and submission acumen will carry the day.  McCrory via submission, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Madigan is an undefeated prospect from Ohio who's notched his 5-0 record beating up Midwestern unknowns, though he has a legit kickboxing background. He's won his last two fights by triangle, but he's got an extremely rudimentary ground game and McCrory's only losses have come to accomplished submission fighters. Madigan will try to negate McCrory's reach advantage by chopping him down with leg kicks, but watch for the "Barn Cat" to close the distance and exploit Madigan's poor sprawl. Tamdan McCrory by Decision

Kendall Grove  vs. Jason Day



Kid Nate: Both of these fighters have looked very impressive on occasion and very unimpressive at other times. The Jason Day that put a beating on Alan Belcher would be an easy pick over the listless Grove we've seen against Jorge Rivera. Of course the Kendall Grove that submitted Alan Belcher with a sweet D'arce choke could certainly tap out the Jason Day that took a beat down from Michael Bisping. Maybe if someone waves Alan Belcher's muay thai shorts over the Octagon we'll get a great performance from both guys. I'm going to go with Day here because he can bring the kind of intensity that has overwhelmed Grove before. Day by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Nate beat me to the punch by playing up the Belcher connection but it goes to show that either guy can win against tough opposition when he is "on."  What we saw in the Bisping fight was that Day can be overwhelmed by patient technical striking but I don't know that I trust Kendall to show that.  Then again I don't really see Day being able to put the fight anywhere that gives him the chance to win that I think Grove has when they're standing and he can use his reach.  Kendall Grove by unimpressive decision.

Mike Rome:  Two very inconsistent fighters.  I think Day was a one trick pony that shocked Belcher, but he's going to lose here standing.  Grove via KO.

Nick Thomas: Grove will probably win. But I can't pick against a fellow Canuck. =) Undercard Upset #1 - Jason Day by TKO.

Michael Fagan: Grove hit a speed bump with back-to-back losses against Rivera and Cote.  He wont a split decision over Evan Tanner, but the fight was much more one-sided than the split would have you think. Day surprised Alan Belcher before being overwhelmed by Michael Bisping.  I expect Grove to play a similar role to Bisping.  Kendall Grove by TKO, round 1.

Cannon Jacques:  I have to admit that I'm not a big fan of Grove's.  His last win was an ugly decision victory over Evan Tanner, but before that were two straight losses.  Day was pounded by Bisping in his prior outing.  Day will have to overcome a serious reach disadvantage against the 6'6" Grove, but I believe he can do just that; Grove is not nearly as daunting a challenge as Bisping.  Day by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Classic overachiever vs. underachiever match-up. Day is coming off a long layoff, but if he can get back to the form he was in before the elbow surgery (and it's hard now to even begrudge him the Bisping loss), he'll dispatch of the rangier but equally inactive runt of the TUF litter with ease. Jason Day by TKO, Round 1

Tim Boetsch vs. Jason Brilz




Kid Nate: I'm a big fan of Tim Boetsch, he's got raw power and some unconventional striking. Jason Brilz is someone the uber-nerds have been touting for a while. He's a very well-rounded fighter with a 15-1 record. Classic match-up of raw power vs finesse. I'm tempted to go with Brilz here, but I think that Boetsch just has too much raw power. If Brilz does win, we might have a new contender on our hands though. Boetsch by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Like everyone else Brilz is a solid guy who has a good future but I really dig Boetsch and his power game.  Tim also isn't one to be patient and that can really be tough for someone who is going to need to adjust to the big stage early.  Early flury = short night.  Tim Boetsch by TKO, round 1.

Mike Rome: Brilz isn't a bad upset pick for betters, but I think Boetsch is too much everywhere and will overwhelm him early.  Boetsch via TKO.
Nick Thomas: Brilz's record is impressive... so this could be a great fight. But I can't pick against the Barbarian. Boetsch by TKO.

Michael Fagan: I think Boetsch is getting a little undervalued.  He took Matyushenko to a decision on three days notice and gassed bad to Hamill on another fight on short notice (and at altitude).  With a proper camp, I expect him to show up here.  Boetsch by TKO, round 1.

Cannon Jacques:  Brilz could be a bit of a sleeper here, but Boetsch has a nice array of skills that he utilizes quite effectively.  Boetsch always puts forth a good effort, whatever the circumstances.  Boetsch by TKO, round 3.

Chris Nelson: Boetsch is a guy I'll be happy to watch whenever the UFC wants to stick him on a card, despite the fact I don't think he'll ever sniff a title. Brilz is no slouch, but Boetsch looked hungry coming off a full camp and exploding on Mike Patt. Tim Boetsch by Jeet Kune Do, Round 1

Brandon Vera vs. Mike Patt



Kid Nate: This is Brandon Vera's last chance in the UFC. They've given him an imminently beatable opponent in wrestler Mike Patt. Vera's saying all the right things about having his head back in the game but the proof's in the Octagon. Here's hoping. Vera by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Goodie gumdrops!  Another gimmie for Vera.  I really think this is his career from here on out.  Beating Reese Andy and Mike Patt level guys, getting main carded, losing and going back to the undercard to win a gimmie...until the UFC has enough and lets him go.  No drama at all in this one other than the fact that Vera better damn well finish Patt and not let it go to a decision.  Vera by TKO, round 2.

Mike Rome: Vera has disappointed in every single fight since his return.  This is the biggest gimmie fight of his UFC career, and I'd be shocked if he didn't win it.  Vera via KO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: UFC wants Vera back on the winning track, thus Mike Patt... Vera by TKO.

Michael Fagan: If Vera loses here, he really need to consider another career choice.  Vera by TKO, round 1.

Cannon Jacques:  This is Vera's chance to regain his confidence and show the UFC (and the fans) that he's worth his substantial contract.  Boetsch took Patt out inside of one round.  Hopefully, for Vera's sake, he can do much the same.  Vera by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: I heard Brandon say in an interview that he's totally changed his diet and training routine going into this bout. He said he was walking around close to 205 about a week out, and something about proving himself this time out because he wasn't happy with his last performance. It sounded suspiciously like an interview I heard with him before the Keith Jardine fight. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd love to see the Vera who was one of the sport's blue chip prospects again, but... Mike Patt via Decision

Aaron Riley vs. Shane Nelson



Kid Nate: Aaron Riley defines the term old-school. I like him a lot at lightweight and think he's a stiff test for all but the most skilled or powerful 155lbers. Nelson falls into neither category. Riley by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I don't know what to say here.  Riley is pretty good most of the time but I never have felt like I could put a ton of faith in him to make big strides in his career.  I also don't like that you have to go back to '06 to see Riley finish a guy and not either go to a decision or take a loss.  That being said I'm not overly impressed with anything I've ever seen of Nelson.  On a bit of a nostalgic note, try to track down the HooknShoot: Showdown tape that chronicals the Yves Edwards/Aaron Riley "feud" as it is a really fun watch.  Aaron Riley by decision.

Mike Rome: Tough fight for Nelson, he doesn't have the power to get Riley down and neutralize the striking.  Riley via decision.

Nick Thomas: Riley has the experience and only loses to top guys. Riley will keep this on the feet and win by decision.

Michael Fagan: Riley by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  Given these two fighters' histories, there is a good chance that this bout will go to decision.  I haven't been all that impressed with Nelson; I believe Riley is a little better.  Riley by decision.

Chris Nelson: Shane didn't show me a lot with his performances on this past season of TUF except that he's a tough, scrappy dude with a top-notch last name. For what it's worth, Nog seemed to be fond of him. But Aaron Riley is a pro, and he'll work to a decision here the same way he did against Gurgel. Aaron Riley by Decision