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DREAM.7 Preview, Part 1: The Featherweights

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This weekend, while fans are busy ignoring and/or complaining about UFC 96, Fighting & Entertainment Group will be jumpstarting the most thrilling year of fights for sub-155 weight classes in MMA history.

The next 30 days will see DREAM and Sengoku each open their own year-long 16-man featherweight grand prix. Both are absolutely thick with talent from Japan, Korea, America, Brazil and beyond, featuring a total of 8 of Bloody Elbow's Top 25 Meta-Ranked Featherweights as well as several highly-touted debuting prospects. All this is not to mention the (mostly) exciting night of action at WEC 39 last weekend, a great looking lineup for WEC 40 on April 5th, and the upcoming 145-pound bracket of the ESPN Deportes-televised Bellator FC.

This started as a preview post, but I figured it might be nice to make some predictions too, since we generally only get around to prognosticating UFC PPVs and Fight Nights 'round these parts. I've spent the last few days submerged in stats and watching every piece of tape I could find, and I've emerged even more geeked than before about this unprecedented period of featherweight activity.

Leave your thoughts and picks in the comments section - I'll be back tomorrow with Part 2, featuring the rest of the FWGP opening round as well as the night's superfights.

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#10 FW/#11 BW Masakazu Imanari (15-6-1) vs. #4 BW Atsushi Yamamoto (12-5-1)

Fight of the Night pick #1. DEEP's former featherweight and current bantamweight champ, the leglock master Imanari reversed his fortunes last August with a 30-second submission of Hiroshi Umemura just three months after a demoralizing title loss to Dokonjonosuke Mishima (his first in three years). The "Ashikan Judan" - ranked #10 in Bloody Elbow's February featherweight meta-rankings - is also the last fighter to defeat current WEC 145-pound beast Mike Thomas Brown, and has to be considered the #2 seed in this unbelievably stacked bracket.

Presumptive #1 seed "KID" Yamamoto's pupil Atsushi (no relation) has also shifted between the 62 and 65kg classes and boasts the solid wrestling pedigree you'd expect from a Krazy Bee, along with a strong defensive ground game. Last September, Yamamoto looked extremely impressive in decisioning the veteran Hideo Tokoro - who coincidentally will face the injured Daiki "DJ.taiki" Hata in the remaining opening round bout at DREAM.8.

Yamamoto has never been submitted in 18 fights, but I have a strong suspicion think that streak ends here. Imanari is bigger and stronger, and has to know that his middling stand-up won't do the trick against the tough Yamamoto. Disclosure: the last time I predicted a first-time submission -- McCullough vs. Cerrone at WEC 36 -- I was completely wrong. Nonetheless...

Masakazu Imanari via Submission, Round 1

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#38 BW Abel Cullum (13-2) vs. #21 FW "Wicky Akiyo" Nishiura (9-3-1)

Fight of the Night pick #2. 22-year old Abel Cullum battled his way into MMA's collective consciousness last September, stunning every fight fan outside of New Mexico with his gutsy bantamweight title bout performance against Wilson Reis. It wasn't that Cullum bested the still-undefeated Brazilian - he lost a unanimous decision after five rounds - but that the virtually unknown, cowboy-hatted fighter who'd replaced Bao Quach on three weeks' notice was able to hang tough on both the feet and floor for 25 minutes with EliteXC's most hotly tipped prospect. It was his first defeat since February of 2006, snapping an 11-fight win streak. In December, the versatile Cullum retained his King of the Cage flyweight belt in front of a hometown crowd by submitting recent WEC signee Brett Roller in under two minutes.

Cullum will have his work cut out for him once again as he faces the 2006 Shooto Lightweight Rookie Champion and #21 meta-ranked featherweight Nishiura. (Curiously, Nishiura and Imanari are the only two meta-ranked competitors in the tournament, perhaps due to the fighters' fluctuating weights, but more likely because most sites fail hard at ranking anything under 170 lbs.) Nishiura is a flamboyant personality outside the cage (check his paintings if you haven't had the pleasure) with an unorthodox kickboxing style to match.

I've yet to see tape of "Wicky's" December Cage Force Featherweight Title loss to Yuji Hoshino, but from all reports it was a rather one-sided ground'n'pound beating precipitated by Nishiura's insistence on only throwing flashy power strikes. Hoshino is a larger and vastly more experienced fighter than Cullum, however, and I don't think Abel will take this to the ground with ease. I expect this to go the distance with Nishiura winning narrowly on points.

"Wicky Akiyo" Nishiura via Split Decision

Star-divide

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#38 FW Micah Miller (10-2) vs. #13 BW/#34 FW Yoshiro Maeda (23-6-2)

The maddeningly inconsistent though clearly talented brother of TUF 5 alum Cole Miller makes his international debut on the big stage, and with a massive step up in competition. A submission-minded fighter training with Florida's American Top Team, the younger Miller has flitted in and out of the WEC since 2007, most recently losing a controversial TKO stoppage to Massachusetts-based upstart Josh Grispi. In December, he captured the Close Quarters Combat (what?) featherweight belt with a second round RNC submission of Pancrase and IFL veteran Jason Palacios.

An explosive striker with one of the deepest (no pun intended) resumes in the bracket, Maeda is one of three FWGP participants who enters the tournament on the back of two straight WEC losses. While there's certainly no shame in losing to Miguel Torres (in what many considered the Fight of the Year for 2008, no less) or Rani Yahya, many fans predicted that the 27-year-old Featherweight King of Pancrase would be the next big thing in the States' premeir lightweight organization. He's also been beaten soundly by two other GP fighters in Imanari and Hata, though he would avenge the Hata loss five months later, and has KO'd Imanari's opening round opponent.

A year or two from now, I'd be all over Miller to win this fight, and maybe even the tournament. He's long and rangy, and he's shown excellent fundamental BJJ along with knockout power in the short time he's been fighting. But his boxing still looks very raw, and Maeda is too powerful and too experienced to be kept at bay.

Yoshiro Maeda via Unanimous Decision

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Takafumi Otsuka (8-3-1) vs. Bibiano Fernandes (3-2)

Fight of the Night pick #3. I'm genuinely surprised DREAM matched up these two studs in the opening round, but it's a very appealing Japan vs. Brazil pairing which fans will eat up.

Fernandes is a fast twitch Brazilian jiu jitsu wizard with a deceptive 3-2 record in MMA; deceptive because those two losses came by way of Top 3 featherweights Urijah Faber and Norifumi Yamamoto in his second and third fights, respectively. (He actually took Urijah down and was controlling his back within the first 30 seconds of their bout; a minute later, Herb Dean was forced to call the fight due to a gushing forehead cut from a Faber elbow, despite Fernandes' vehement protests.) Last year "The Flash" went 2-0 with the Calgary-based Raw Combat promotion.

Otsuka, meanwhile, has amassed a 8-1-1 record in his last ten bouts. In the past five months, he's bested highly regarded Japanese fighters Shoji Maruyama and Masanori Kanehara with decision victories in DEEP, leading many to believe that he's destined for the finals of this tournament.

This may be the toughest bout of the opening round to pick. Otsuka lacks size and reach, but has decent stand-up and dominant wrestling, and has bested far larger fighters than himself in both Japan and Brazil. He's also demonstrated an uncanny ability to power out of nearly any submission his opponent throws at him. While Fernandes is imbued with lightning speed, he has not, to date, shown any great ability to effectively transition his Mundial-winning BJJ skills to suit his MMA career.

Takafumi Otsuka via TKO, Round 1

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#27 FW Hiroyuki Takaya (9-6-1) vs. Jong-Won Kim (0-0)

The brawling "Streetfight Bancho" Takaya returns to his homeland after being bounced from the WEC with tough back-to-back losses to Leonard Garcia and Cub Swanson.

Before I started digging last month, I knew nothing anything about Takaya's opponent, though I was intrigued by the fact that he was a highly accomplished judoka (1997 Pacific Rim and Asian Judo Champion) who retired from competition in his prime to become a professional golfer. For the past two years, Kim has been a training partner and cornerman to good friend Dong-Sik Yoon, who claims the 33-year old's striking (as taught by K-1 standout K.MAX) will surprise fans.

I'm going to trust the Donger on this one, especially considering Kim's strong judo background; double especially because I didn't like at all what I saw from Takaya in his lone televised stateside bout, and it's difficult to train specifically for an 0-0 opponent with no footage to watch. Upset pick of the night for "The Man In The Background" via all-night judo throws.

Jong-Won Kim via Decision

6 recs  |  Comment 38 comments |

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great stuff Chris!

I haven’t been able to keep on top of the featherweight scene like i should, this is a great catch up!

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Mar 4, 2009 10:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent piece. Why nothig on Beebe/Warren though? Also, do you know what weight this is actually at?

by FRANKIE on Mar 4, 2009 10:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Why nothing on Beebe/Warren though?

Coming up in Part 2!. :) I ended up writing a couple long-winded paragraphs on that one so I figured I’d spread it out.

Also, do you know what weight this is actually at?

DREAM = 63kg / 138.9 lbs
Sengoku = 65kg / 143.3 lbs

I meant to mention that in the post – this one is technically closer to bantamweight.

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

imanari by absurd submission! he’s caught far more experienced guys in the past…..

Gatti.
Dekkers.
Pele.
Tadahiro Nomura.
Hidehiko Yoshida.
Aoki.
Kang.
Vanderlei.

by theworldsoldestsport on Mar 4, 2009 10:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Imanari by 1st round submission
Cullum by 1st round submission
Maeda by 1st round KO/TKO
Otsuka by unanimous/majority decision
Takaya by 1st round KO/TKO
Maeda-Miller is my Fight Of The Night.

http://dcrage.wordpress.com

by DCRage on Mar 4, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

now when does this actually come on. like sunday at 3 in the morning? i could watch 96 and just stay up all night and watch both.

by bdw on Mar 4, 2009 11:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Been trying to figure this out myself, ‘cause you’re not the first person I’ve heard say that it’s on right after UFC 96. The poster says Sunday (3/8) @ 16:00, so wouldn’t that be 3AM ET on Monday in the US?

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It would be 4 AM ET Sunday. The US east coast is roughly 12 hours behind Japan time, so 4 PM ET in Japan is 4 AM ET the same day in the US.

http://dcrage.wordpress.com

by DCRage on Mar 4, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome, thanks.

Once again my public schooling fails me.

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was planning on doing this but HDnet decided to not show Dream 7 until the 14th

by Lyrias on Mar 4, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He’s right you know.

Its on a pretty hefty tape delay because they didnt think they’d get many people staying up until the early hours of the morning when they have work the next day. You might be able to find a Japanese stream though?

by SamCupitt on Mar 4, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uhh... I'm not so sure...

Imanari is a fantastic submission fighter, but Yamamoto is by far the better well-rounded fighter in that bout. Imanari is bigger, but his standup is nowhere near what Yamamoto can dish out.

While Yamamoto isn’t a huge finisher, it’s tough for me to pick Imanari (And I’m a huge fan of Imanari). The leglock is always there, but Yamamoto is a great scrambler, solid fighter… I don’t know. I’m not inclined to pick someone who relies heavily on submission tactics against Yamamoto. I could see Atsushi being subb’ed though.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Kim has a fantastic shot, but I’m still relying on Takaya’s experience and heavy hands to end Won’s first matchup in the MMA ring.

Takafumi is a hard sell for me. I’ve seen nearly half of his fights, and I’ve never been impressed. He has some great wrestling, but I think Bibiano is a huge dark horse in this tournament.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Some of these fights are so damn tough to call due to all the factors involved (debuting fighters, fighters looking bad of late/coming off losing streaks, etc.). It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Bibiano going to the finals, but I like Otsuka here for some reason.

Definitely see your angle on Imanari-Yamamoto too. I think Imanari needs to end this quick or he runs the risk of being punished for three rounds.

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...

I may redux my predictions since I haven’t had a lot of time to analyze these fights. I’ve watched so many Shooto events over the last year or so, I’m a bit confused since the naming conventions over there are making me think of different fighters.

To be perfectly honest, watching Imanari over the years, I may have to go with him in the first round of this tournament. He will be much bigger than Atsushi, but he also will be actively looking for the leg locks.

The real blueprint for Yamamoto will be the Mishima fights. The only problem is that Yamamoto likely won’t be able to pull off the same type of gameplan because he’s much shorter, doesn’t have length to stand outside Imanari’s guard and wail on him. I think that’s the big difference here.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I am picking Imanari and Akiyo in this one. I can’t see Yamamoto, with his small size, executing a gameplan like Mishima, and Abel is going to have problems catching Akiyo’s standup game.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And Takafumi...

He’s always been a very above average fighter for his size. I found myself rooting for him on some of the Fury FC cards, and he’s a damn tough guy. I think Bibiano’s chance is coming. He’s fairly small though, even for Takafumi, this should be fairly even. Takafumi is tough to submit as well, so it should be a good one.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was just reading your breakdowns on MMA-Analyst by the way – great stuff!

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're not ballsy...

Unless you pick Warren… lol

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great post, this is the only part I really disagree with:


“While Fernandes is imbued with lightning speed, he has not, to date, shown any great ability to effectively transition his Mundial-winning BJJ skills to suit his MMA career.”

He has shown the skills, he just doesn’t have the wins to show for it yet. I think Bibiano will tear a few limbs off before this GP is done

by smoogy on Mar 4, 2009 1:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I hope you’re right, I’d love to see Bibiano really break out over the course of this year. He’s definitely in the right GP to do it (as opposed to Sengoku with the higher weight limit).

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...

Smoogy and I already talked about this, but it’s definitely a possibility. Bibiano could very well be a major dark horse in this tournament.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Abel....

is very out matched here vs alot of experienced 145ers. I mean the boy fights at 135 even 125 a few times amatuer here in new mexico

"What do you want from me?..... A Slap?"

by xtremecouture on Mar 4, 2009 1:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...

I’m much more inclined to pick Akiyo due to that and the fact that Abel is going to have problems trying to catch Akiyo’s more elusive tactics in the standup game.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey guys, before this quickly slips off the front page, thanks a lot for the positive feedback and to whomever rec’d this. It’s disheartening sometimes, the disproportionate amount of attention that negative rumors and $kala/War Machine/etc. news gets when compared to some truly momentous shit like this tournament, but it’s always nice to be reminded that real heads know what’s up.

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Nice to see some stuff about Japanese MMA on the front page too.

by FRANKIE on Mar 4, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good write-up, I disagree with most of your picks though. :p I got:

Yamamoto DEC
Cullum DEC
Miller/Maeda – it’s basically pointless to do a prediction for any Maeda fight, but I’ll shoot anyways…uhhh…Maeda by DEC/KO. If Miller wins it will be by Maeda running into a guillotine.
Bibiano DEC.
Takaya KO/TKO – I see no reason to pick JWK here. Debuting judoka are usually not the greatest, especially when they’re multiple years removed from competition. I can’t see JWK getting inside and taking Takaya down without eating some punches – who knows how he’s going to react to being hit?
Beebe/Warren – no clue. Depends if Beebe’s ‘injury’ is real and whether he can use his non-wrestling skills to beat Warren.

by ilostmydog on Mar 4, 2009 3:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I was picking Yamamoto and Cullum, but I find that Yamamoto’s size could be the deciding factor. Mishima’s fights against Imanari are the blueprint to crushing him, but Yamamoto lacks the height and reach to use such a gameplan.

Yamamoto has power, but he’s hardly the finisher while Imanari is quite the submission expert. It’s a tough fight to pick, but Imanari does have a distinct size advantage. I could see it going either way, but I can’t pick Yamamoto going in with a size disadvantage.

Cullum isn’t that impressive to me, and usually as a flyweight, he’s decent, but going in against Akiyo, who has average striking, although he’s a moron who leaves his hands down… I think it’s a tough fight to call. I think Nelson has it right, it’ll be very close with Akiyo edging him out. Nothing grand though.

I got Maeda, Bibiano, Takaya as well. It looks like FEG is giving Won the Dong Sik Yoon treatment, chucking him into a wolf pack.

I’m taking Warren in this bout. Very exciting wrestler, and if Beebe has any sign of an injury, he’s gonna be toast.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Mar 4, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really don’t think Imanari has that great of a size advantage, if any. Yamamoto is listed as being taller, and (using their common opponent JMK for comparison) he looks ‘bigger’ than Imanari. Imanari also fought at BW in 2008 (and Atsushi has competed at FW) so it’s not like he’s a giant FW.

Anyways, Imanari is great at subs, but I think that if you can get in his guard and lay a few shots in on him, his submission prowess decreases significantly. Yamazaki, Mishima, Maeda, Paixao, and Brown were all able to sit in Imanari’s guard, lay some leather on him, and not get subbed (at least not from his guard for Maeda and Brown). I can see Yamamoto doing just that. He did it against Tokoro, who is bigger than Imanari and (IMO) has better submissions from his guard. The problem for Atsushi will be dealing with all the crazy baseball slides, diving omoplatas, etc.

I agree with you on Cullum in part. He just seems, to me, to be a guy who can come into a fight with a decent gameplan and stick to it. He’ll definitely be smaller, but I can still see him grinding out a W. I can just as easily see Wicky smacking him around too. It’s really a pick’em fight to me.

by ilostmydog on Mar 4, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d have to agree with all of the above. Cullum vs. Wicky is the hardest fight to pick. The other one I’m on the fence about is Miller vs. Maeda. We saw Yoshiro get his face busted up by a guy with better reach in Torres, if Micah’s camp is paying any attention they should be able to come up with a good gameplan to repicate that. Miller actually executing is another thing, but he seems talented enough to get the job done. But the added pressure on him compounded with Maeda’s “crafty veteran” status makes it very tough to call. Ironically, Maeda himself was dogged in the past for being a bit flakey when the heat was on, so who knows what turns the fight may take if it goes deep into the 10 minute round.

by smoogy on Mar 4, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s true what you say about Miller-Maeda. Lots and lots of variables.

and ilostmydog – I will absolutely cop to picking JWK off nothing but judo, muscles and his training partners. Call me crazy, I’ve just got a hunch.

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maeda’s fights are tough to call just because you never know who’s going to show up. He is really the most brain cramp prone fighter I’ve ever seen.

vs. Krazy Horse – should have been able to take KH down and fairly easily outpoint/submit him. He could have even outstruck him if he played it safe. Instead he decides to engage in a slugfest?

vs. Imanari – winning the fight when he decides to trade heel hooks with a leg lock master. WTF?

vs. Taiki – Taiki, at this point, has zero ground game and on his best day is nowhere near the striker Maeda is. So what does Maeda do? Taunts him, gets punched a few times, ref stops the fight, and Maeda has the mother of all temper tantrums. Even Taiki said he thought the fight was a fluke.

At this point, people started thinking that maybe Maeda has a problem fighting really weird/crazy fighters. Until…

vs. Joe Pearson – Maeda, for some reason, decides that it is a viable gameplan to run directly into a guillotine choke.

vs. Rani Yahya – a standing guillotine? Really? I understand that Rani has pretty good BJJ, but a standing guillotine?

by ilostmydog on Mar 4, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is a great post. I admit to not being up on the smaller fighters competing in the Japanese promotions. This helps. It’s much better having this post as opposed to some idiot like me picking fights that I know little about. Wait…that’s already my M.O. Anyway, cool stuff.

by Cannon Jacques on Mar 4, 2009 4:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1 to the high level discussion on this tourny. I have to admit I don’t know very much about the lighter weight Japanese fighters so I relish these sorts of instances, from an educational perspective. Nelson, Smoogy, Leland, and ilostmydog ftw.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Mar 4, 2009 10:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

to whoever added the meta-rankings! We need a way to keep those easily accessible on the front page like they have on BLH, I couldn’t find the bantamweight post in the search.

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That’s because I totally didn’t do a bantamweight or flyweight post.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Mar 4, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha, that would explain it. So we get rankings from the private reserve? Schweet.

I’ve stopped looking at other sites’ rankings (I just read them in your posts) but I don’t imagine there are enough ranking bantamweights or flyweights at the moment to make it worthwhile, eh?

Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com

by Chris Nelson on Mar 4, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I had eight bantamweight rankings, which is probably enough but the initial plan wasn’t to include them and I threw them together as an afterthought so they didn’t get a post.

With flyweights there just aren’t enough rankings. Fight Matrix ranks 25 guys, MMA ELO 10 and Sherdog just five. Maybe when the WEC starts showing flyweight fights more sites will take an interest in the division and start ranking them. Until then I’ll probably just keep them in a file on my computer.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Mar 5, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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