Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans: Possible Weaknesses

by Flying Gogoplata on Mar 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDT Comment 72 comments

Fronted from the FanPosts by Kid Nate

Following Rashad Evans' victory over Forrest Griffin at UFC 92, Lyoto Machida gave an interview to TATAME magazine where he stated the following:

Look, I think Rashad is a complete guy, has the wrestling as a background, but I see some flaws in his game, although I’m not worried with him now. My focus is Thiago. I look, but I don’t get much information of the opponents that I’m not focused, but I see some holes in his game (Rashad), but I prefer not to think yet, he is not the one for now.

Rashad Evans has yet to find flaws in Machida's game, but he's on the right track. After UFC 94, Evans told Sherdog:

With that said, there may be some kinks in his armor that I have yet to see that I can exploit when I look at the tapes more closely. Nobody’s unbeatable. Machida’s been looking slicker than I don’t know what, but everybody has a weakness even if you do look slick as oil. Everyone has a weakness.

Two days later, Evans elaborated on his strategy and plans:

"There are a lot of things [Silva] did against Machida that I won't do," Evans told ESPN.com. "Mainly, when I'm on the ground I wouldn't be so relaxed; I won't just lay there like he did.

"He underestimated Machida's ability to close the distance and his ground and pound. There are a lot of mistakes he made that I probably won't make."

[...]

"I already have my training partners in place for Machida; the partners who can give me the best look for Machida. We're going to put a good game plan together and stop this guy."

The questions now are, what are the flaws Machida sees in Evans and what will Evans' game plan against Machida look like?

Read more in the full entry.

For starters, let's look at how Evans threw his jab against Griffin:

Evans appears to throw a lot of his weight forward and to the right. The red circles indicate where this momentum can be exploited by a technique such as this:

Granted, Machida used his left thigh as leverage in this gif, but since he defaults to a southpaw stance, he should be able to easily take advantage of Evans' exposed left leg if and when he jabs like he did against Griffin.

That's just one example of possibly many Evans weaknesses. But for now, let's move onwards to Evans' game plan.

Evans' hand speed and footwork are better than all of Machida's UFC opponents. And Machida has had trouble with very quick strikers in the past. He had a tough time with a small, fast Penn a few years ago. Lyoto's younger, faster, more aggressive brother Chinzo regularly beats Lyoto in Shotokan competitions. Now Evans can attempt to use his speed to out-point Machida, but there's little guarantee that he'll get the better of the exchanges. Machida is no slouch himself and will undoubtedly work hard with his brother and strength/conditioning coach in the coming months.

Evans can try to take Machida down. But Machida has proven to be very difficult to put on his back. Sokoudjou did succeed in tripping Machida, but Machida likely wanted it that way. He had a sweep ready immediately and stayed on the ground for most of the fight. Tito Ortiz had zero success taking down Machida, but according to Shonie Carter, it's because Ortiz couldn't deal with the southpaw stance:

Tito was confused off of the southpaw lead. I've learned years ago you learn your techniques, right-handed and left-handed.
[...]
He couldn't take that lead leg away from Machida, but Machida could take away his lead leg when Tito was shooting that double leg shot. When you shoot like that against a southpaw, you have to switch step lead; you can't just shoot off your back leg. You have to do a switch step and then take the double leg. You find your punches on the way in to an upper body clinch and you don't use your Greco, but you can use your Judo.

But even if Evans adapts well to the southpaw stance, I think he'll still have tons of trouble putting Machida on his back. His sumo base and overall defensive submission wrestling skills are phenomenal. For that reason, I think Evans would not adopt a strategy that depends heavily on a top game.

Evans can attempt to lure Machida into his guard and attempt to submit Machida. After all, Tito almost beat Machida that way. But Machida had the flu during that fight and like almost everybody ignored or underestimated Ortiz' bottom game. Those two factors contributed to Machida's momentary defensive lapse. Also, we haven't seen Evans' bottom game in a long while and at this point it is a relative unknown. And let's not forget how easily Machida can escape from a closed guard.

So from this cursory analysis, it would appear Team Jackson will have a very tough time coming up with a game plan that will "stop this guy." Machida on the other hand found flaws in Evans months in advance.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Comments

aside from the silva fight, machida has been an in and out/backpedaller….evans hasn’t done much different in his wins…he backs away, and lands a big shot when the opponent comes in wide after getting a bit impatient….having either as champ is a no-win situation from a fan’s perspective. if i want to see backpedalling i’ll watch more boxing.

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by theworldsoldestsport on Mar 17, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You do that

by soadtrails on Mar 17, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You won’t see flying knees to the body or karate switch kicks to the head in boxing.
BTW, from many fans’ perspective, Machida is the breath of fresh air they’ve been waiting for.

by Dooda on Mar 17, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you are saying that you were bored by Evans’ KOs of Lidell and Forrest and after watching those fights you would rather watch boxing instead?

seriously?

by polevaultking on Mar 17, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Evans and Machida are both good at avoiding damage and frustrating their opponents, but Machida is better at doing it while winning individual rounds. Evans is very comfortable falling behind on the judges’ scorecards, and I think it finally catches up to him with this fight. Setting aside 10-8 rounds, if you lose the 1st round of a 5 round fight, you must win 3 out of the next 4 rounds to win a decision.

by Jahbulon on Mar 17, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That takedown gif of Machida is very nice, but there’s not a connection between that and your still photo of Rashad throwing a jab. There’s a lot that would have to occur between the 2 for Machida to establish a clinch with Rashad.

by Hardcharger on Mar 17, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

Also, Rashad rarely throws a single jab…usually it’s just a ‘feeler’ jab to gauge distance before coming with the big right. Evans has the tools to beat Machida…it all about if he uses them or not. However, if he fights like he’s fought against Liddell and Griffin…odds are he’ll lose via decision.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Mar 17, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After throwing the jab shown in the photo, Evans threw three more individual jabs with no follow-up.

by Flying Gogoplata on Mar 17, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes it does require some imagination. You’re a southpaw lead and the other guy sticks his left leg way out when he jabs. Now you can either circle away or block like Griffin did in the gif. But you could also duck, clinch and bring your right thigh underneath his left thigh. Then proceed with the throw as shown. Obviously it requires inhuman reaction, speed and coordination but it’s Machida we’re talking about here…

by Flying Gogoplata on Mar 17, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You’re making a huge leap of faith that Machida could even get a clinch with double unders in this situation, let alone take Rashad down afterwards. Machida is a very skilled fighter, but he’s facing a guy with great skills as well who’s also on top of his game and is fleeter afoot than Machida.

by Hardcharger on Mar 17, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Machida has done some crazy shit before so I wouldn’t count this out. We’ll see in May whether it could work.

by Flying Gogoplata on Mar 17, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And so has Rashad. My statement is that it’s not accurate to use a still photo of one jab from Rashad and then try to connect that to a TD on Ortiz where Machida already had double unders and had Ortiz moving backwards. There’s a lot of missing pieces in between our 2 visual examples here to be able to clearly connect them.

by Hardcharger on Mar 17, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like I said, it does require some imagination. I’m no expert in drawing or animations and it is difficult to explain with words. But nonetheless, Evans’ positioning and movement leave him vulnerable to a takedown that a) starts as Evans starts his jab body motion, b) gets in full position as he finishes his jab, c) starts the actual unbalancing as he is moving backwards from the jab.

Using the right thigh as leverage may be one way to accomplish the takedown. Maybe it’s not the best way, but it’s an example.

by Flying Gogoplata on Mar 17, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would be more telling if Rashad had a history of being clinched after jabbing, but his quickness makes this exceedingly difficult. Machida trying to clinch after an Evans jab also puts him in the pocket for striking exchanges more often than you regularly see Machida in those situations.

by Hardcharger on Mar 17, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very interesting post

good stuff!

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Mar 17, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The only kink in Machida's armor

is that his ground game is probably not on the same level as his striking.

That’s it. I’m not saying his ground game is weak either, it’s very good and he can finish there as well.

From fights with Ortiz and White, Machida is dangerous on the ground but can be reversed and be put in dangerous spots. Ortiz getting the triangle choke/armbar was the closest thing to Machida losing a fight even if it was loose.

Rashad has to close the distance and somehow to do something on the ground against him. The more I look at it though, it becomes harder and harder to pick Rashad even though I want to.

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by achengy on Mar 17, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz's ground game underrated

Everyone says “ortiz’s triangle oh my…” but the thing is… Tito has won some serious submission grappling matches. Including wins over matt hughes in the Abu Dahbi (spelling). And took either 3rd or 4th place in that tournament.

by adamdd on Mar 17, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those were due to his top game and positional control.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Mar 17, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mark Kerr won the damn thing

You don’t have to submit anyone.

by subo on Mar 17, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ha!

by Epy on Mar 17, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very intelligent post. Machida could probably work the takedowns but probably won’t.

by Bandaka on Mar 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Post

Machida had the flu during the Ortiz fight? That’s the first I’ve heard of it.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Mar 17, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

After the fight he issued an apology for not fighting better and finishing the fight. He said he was very sick going into the fight.

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Mar 17, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excuse the hyperbole, but if true, that’s a Jordan-esque level of performance then.

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Mar 17, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Preaching to the choir.

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Mar 17, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me too. I still can’t believe how well he controlled the clinch in that fight. And he had the flew? Wowza.

by Dooda on Mar 17, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lyoto Machida is Bruce Lee reincarnate. “Don’t focus on the finger or you will miss the eternal glory beyond.”

by bubbafat on Mar 17, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

“Evans’ hand speed and footwork are better than all of Machida’s UFC opponents. And Machida has had trouble with very quick strikers in the past. He had a tough time with a small, fast Penn a few years ago. Lyoto’s younger, faster, more aggressive brother Chinzo regularly beats Lyoto in Shotokan competitions.”

- I think this (speed) is the key, and unless the fight ends by decision, there is no reason to really worry about points. Again, just like with Liddell and Forrest, I think points will be a non-issue even in a loss. You can see Rashad’s accuracy increase round to round with his short straight right (1-2), so I would expect him to come in well-prepared for this fight. His double-left hook should be able to come over top of Machida’s right hand. And if Rashad keeps the head movement quick, Machida will not be able to tee off on him – and there is not much chance we’ll see Rashad on his back.

Two of the smarter (est?) fighters in MMA going at it here, this’ll be a great one. Some are predicting boredom, but I’ll enjoy it all.

by bigweeze on Mar 17, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Personnally, never bet against the Jackson camp

I’d think the best plan would be one that changes depending on the round, much like they did with Liddell.

Spend the first round frustrating Machida and attempting to lure him into chasing, then in the second round go offensive. Or some multiround plan like that.

by Razreshat on Mar 17, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anderson Silva and Michida train in the same camp....

If I recall, it was their camp that beat good ole’ nate last……………….

by adamdd on Mar 17, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except when Jardine fights, amirite?

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Mar 17, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then its 50/50

Jardine is a spoiler most of the time.

by Razreshat on Mar 17, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The more I think about King Mo’s description of Machida as “counter-offensive” the more I like it. The difference between Machida and Evans or Jackson is that I never feel like Machida is in danger of losing a round because he’s fighting a counter style.

In terms of weaknesses, neither is huge at 205, but that won’t come into play obviously. Evans tendency to be a slow starter has been well documented here. One would have to think Evans will have the advantage in power. Machida should be much better off his back.

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Mar 17, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who’s the biggest LHW? JOB?

by subo on Mar 17, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Griffin is pretty big, Jon Jones and Bonner too.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Mar 17, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not sure who the biggest is, but Liddell, Ortiz, and Griffin are all very big.

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Mar 17, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vera, and Obrien both came down from HW

by EazyEismydad on Mar 18, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

vera was only 213 at heavy weight… i have a feeling he could go down to 185 if he really wanted

by adamdd on Mar 18, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t want to be on my back against either of those dudes. Their top control is really really good.

by Dooda on Mar 17, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t recall Evans having a dangerous guard. So I don’t think he would be able to catch Machida with anything from his back.

At any rate, I think Evans’ best chance is to be faster than Machida and really cut on the angles. Honestly, I don’t see Machida losing this.

by pud333 on Mar 17, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A bit off topic, but watching that grappling match got me thinking… Obviously Dana has no problem with Machida, Maia, Gonzaga and a host of other UFC fighters competing in grappling competitions, why is Fedor’s Sambo a problem?

by brad23 on Mar 17, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Striking, and it probably would be one of the first things that could be given up in negotiations.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Mar 17, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Machida’s fan boyz are gonna be mysteriously absent the day after Evans KTFO.

by Bigperm on Mar 17, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It really wouldn’t surprise me if the bandwagon emptied if he got K.O.‘d. There was very little talk of how he is possibly the best LHW alive until after he K.O.’d Silva (which was impressive to watch but not enough to push that many fans into full blown crush mode).

Personally I liked his style before, I think he will definitely beat Evans and I’ll be here fanboying it up for him even if Evans does land the big bomb.

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Mar 17, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well even before he KOed silva, i already thought he's the best LHW out there..

they say he hasn’t beaten any top competition, but thats hard if they dont want to face him..

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by Anton Tabuena on Mar 17, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his resume includes victories over

Rich Franklin
Bj Penn
Stephan Bonner
Sokodju
Tito Ortiz
Thiago Silva

You can’t really say he hasn’t faught good competition.

by adamdd on Mar 18, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

None of those guys are top five at light heavyweight.

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by Richard Wade on Mar 18, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

but Thiago Silva and Sokoudjou were top 10 when they lost to Machida.

"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"

by Kid Nate on Mar 18, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Rich Franklin is currently a top ten LHW. That’s why I said top five.

by Richard Wade on Mar 18, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is?

For beating Matt Hamill? That’s pretty kind ranking.

by FRANKIE on Mar 18, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Losing a split decision to Hendo is nothing to be ashamed of, either.

by subo on Mar 18, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. It’s still not a win, so it shouldn’t advance him in rankings.
2. That was at MW, so it shouldn’t have any bearing on LHW rankings even if he’d won.

by FRANKIE on Mar 18, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was at 205 lbs.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Mar 18, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did they seriously fight at 205 to determine who would coach against and fight Bisping at 185? If so, I stand corrected. I just assumed nobody would arrange something that dumb. In any case, the first point stands.

by FRANKIE on Mar 19, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

…losing a split decision after getting poked in the eyes repeatedly.

by cauliflower_ears on Mar 19, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He got poked in the eye in the last minute of the fight, if I remember correctly.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Mar 19, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of people were saying it as far back as the Sokoudjou fight.

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by Mike Fagan on Mar 18, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve been a big fan for a long time, and a loss against Evans won’t change that. If anything I think a loss would do him good, many fighters come back stronger after a loss and improve their game, and Machida has the skills and the mindset to be able to do so.

by brad23 on Mar 17, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Long-term Machida fan. Smoething about the Karate style makes me love him (my original MA was karate). He’s exactly what a good martial artist should be.

by rainmaker6 on Mar 17, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Machida is like a rubrics cube made of calculus problems.

Keep firing Assholes!

by Ubernoober on Mar 17, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just to confirm Machida did have the flu during the Ortiz fight — that is why he was so gassed at the end of the fight — to his credit he did not use this as an excuse. I think the only way Evans wins is by right hand KO which will be difficult, since Machida’s southpaw stance will neutralize Evans right hand as Machida will keep his right foot on the outside of Evans left foot. Machida will counter Evans’ jab with a left cross to the face (gyaku zuki) and sweep him with a right ashi barai, get side control mount and ground and pound.

by artelussonnier on Mar 17, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So Rahsad will have his right neutralized against a southpaw, but the southpaw will be able to utilize his left against the orthodox fighter? That’s contradictory.

by Hardcharger on Mar 17, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is not contradictory. Rashad lunges with his jab more so than Machida. Machida has superior footwork, therefore it will be easier for Machida to keep his right foot on the outside of Rashad’s left foot. This would allow Machida to better neutralize Rashad’s right. Machida will circle to Rashad’s left — he will feint making Rashad over extend and that is when Machida will counter with his left, sweep, side control, mount, le fin.

It is easier for southpaws to neutralize orthodox fighters, since they have been fighting orthodox fighters their entire lives where as orthodox fighters usually have to learn how to fight southpaw’s later — that is why southpaws tend to have an advantage.

Anyway, who knows, it should be a good fight — I like both and it sets up a good fight with Rashad against either one.

by artelussonnier on Mar 17, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good luck to you if you’re wagering on the fight going down and ending off a sweep to GNP finish of Rashad after an Evans jab. You can probably get very good odds on that.

by Hardcharger on Mar 18, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ha ha One thing I’ve learned with MMA is who the heck knows. So there is no way I’ll put a wager on anything concerning the outcome of an MMA fight. Football yes MMA no.

by artelussonnier on Mar 18, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SMH...Machida isn't going to beat Evans

The only way Evans loses if he makes mistakes. He and Machida have similar styles, except Evans is clearly the strongest of the two. The only way Machida wins if he turns the fight into a boring stalemate. Evans has proven time and time again he is a knockout threat. I hope Machida can shock the world and knock out Evans. It would be good to see a new person with the LHW belt.

by Akorn on Mar 17, 2009 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The biggest obstacle any fighter facing machida has to overcome are those faints, constantly blocking punches that are not there will frustrate and knock rashad out of his gameplan

by elusiveexplosion on Mar 18, 2009 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs