Bloody Elbow: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Certifiable: Purdue gets elite win over Tennessee

On Submissions, Part II (Dave Meltzer Edition)

In his piece about the growing concern over MMA refereeing, Dave Meltzer slipped this paragraph in:

Fighters often feel pressure trying to please the live crowd, wanting to be perceived as having quality fights and become more marketable in a community that is controlled by a zealous Internet fan base.

“Look at [Jorge] Gurgel,” referee Yves Lavigne said of a recently released UFC vet. “He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and he’s very good on the ground. He never even shoots to try a takedown.”

During the period in question, UFC held 60 matches, 32 of which were stopped by a referee call after a knockout or a TKO compared with nine submission finishes. That’s a 42 percent drop in submissions and a 36 percent increase in knockouts and TKOs over the same 12-week period one year ago. This means a larger number of split-second decisions are being made as to whether fighters can continue, and those decisions have a higher percentage of likelihood of affecting outcomes and careers.

For starters, I'm interested in why Dave chose the same time frame from the year before, instead of the previous 60 fights, 60 fights from 2003, 60 fights from Dream, or the past 60 WWE matches.  The point being, what use is there in comparing a random cluster of 60 fights to another random cluster a year prior?  This isn't retail, there aren't patterns based on the day, week, month, or season. 

I want to point something out before going further.  In my two articles about this topic, I shouldn't say that we definitely aren't seeing a trend of increased knockouts with decreased submissions.  We might be, we might not be.  I'm trying to make two points. 1) Gross and now Meltzer have used faulty logic getting to their conclusions and 2) as of right now there is not enough evidence to start making claims that the UFC is pushing for more knockout finishes or that submissions are becoming a less viable means of finishing a fight..

With that out of the way, jump over the break to see some fancy graphs.

Star-divide

Subskotosub_medium

What you see here is the KO:Sub ratio over the past 3 years, broken up into six month overlapping chunks.  This graph trends slightly upward.  However, look at these next two graphs:

Subskotosubsy2y_medium

Subskotosubs2y2y_medium

These two graphs show the KO:Sub ratio year-to-year and over periods of two overlapping years respectively.  Notice the trend downward until an uptick at the end.

I still don't think we have enough evidence to support the notion that the increase in KOs:Subs we're seeing are anything more than random fluctuation at this point.  If this number continues upwards and ranges around 1.75-2.00 KO:Subs, we have something to talk about.  We also just might be seeing a regression to the mean after a period of increased submissions.

0 recs  |  Comment 53 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

1: The gap between the top guys and the rest is starting to level out, which means guys are operating on similar skill levels.

2: Too many guys are not grappling. Take the damn fights down already. I know you’re good at boxing Sherk but I wanna see you slap black belts on the floor again.

by godzillad on Mar 16, 2009 12:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

3. This point is being hyped past the point of relevance.

by subo on Mar 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Don't Worry

Demian Maia and Dustin Hazelett will single-handedly restore balance to the data.

I think the problem (if there is one) is that fighters are trying for the bonuses, and SubOTN is the hardest. Anyone can get that lucky KO or kickbox sloppily, but a sub is something you have to intentionally do.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Mar 16, 2009 12:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There is much less competition for SotN though.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Mar 16, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There have been a couple of events lately where any submission on the card would of won the bonus by default. Those are the kinds of things that lead to sloppy kickboxing disease perception issues.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s good because that’s not what I am claiming at all. I am talking about a perception issue not a real issue, of course when talking about a spectator sport perception can be more potent than reality in many cases.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good post mike. :)

i think people are worrying too much and putting too much meaning in this.. as you pointed out, it’s still way too early to be sounding the panic alarm..

by Anton Tabuena on Mar 16, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Very very good book.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Mar 16, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

-Mark Twain

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Mar 16, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damn beat me to it, but the quote actually isn’t from Mark Twain he just used it in one of his books.

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Statistically, more people would recognize it as Twain’s quote than Benjamin Disraeli’s, and in the Age of Wikipedia…

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Mar 16, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh I learned that in Statistics class years(decades) ago. Of course Wikipedia credits Disraeli for it too but they note Twain made it popular. Of course of course Wikipedia is a horrible source for factual information unless you actually follow the footnotes and check the sources (see: Upper Peninsula War). Back in ancient times (1980’s) you actually had to go to a library to get fooled by historical satire.

Reality has become a commodity

-Stephen Colbert

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As useful as Wikipedia can be, I am perturbed by the idea that reality is a democratic process. I loved when Colbert told his viewers to edit the African elephant page to triple the number remaining in the wild.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Mar 16, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Figures never lie, but liars always figure

Another great quote, though I can never remember who it’s from. One of my dad’s favorite lines.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Mar 16, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can use statistics

to prove just about anything….64% of people know that!

—-Lionel Hutz

Rafu

by rafu on Mar 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

D’oh, forgot to mention this was a fantastic post Mr. Fagan.

by godzillad on Mar 16, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think this is one of those cases where there is more than just the statistical analysis of how fights end because sloppy kickboxing disease has more to do with individual fighters performances than the sport as a whole. There have been a small handful of guys who have been Gurgeling it up in higher profile fights and that has lead to the perception of a trend in the entire sport. Everyone expects guys like Chuck Liddell to come out swinging but when they see Joe Stevenson and Diego Sanchez (for example) doing it the WTF factor is disproportiate to any trends in the actual sport.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 1:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

& Kos & Rashad. Only Maia and Hazelett use aggressive, attacking BJJ, BJ only uses it to get back to striking from his feet. I wish the former wrestling people would work on their shot and top game and develop Josh Neer or Loiseau elbows or punches from side control. Like GSP said wrestling should be most dominant. Its not lay and pray if you’re constant moving to improve your position and inflicting damage on your way there at a quick pace.

Draft Balls Be Kind, The Kings Need Blake! The Padres need Strausberg and the Chargers need Mauluaga!

by bringbackbuddytrees on Mar 16, 2009 1:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Two of BJ’s last three wins are by submission.

http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Mar 16, 2009 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the last 110 fights in the UFC fights end in submission 23% of the time.

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Mar 16, 2009 8:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Viewer perception and actual statistics are two separate issues. People aren’t looking at the big picture they are looking at stand out individual fights like Sanchez vs Stevenson that drew a lot of eyeballs.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the contrary

First, I think there’s a lot of anecdotal evidence that fighters are encouraged to stand and bang, and that Gurgel isn’t the only guy who tried to squeeze his square skills into a round hole to accomodate.

Also, I think you make too much of Meltzer comparing the time period from the same year. Even if it is random, it is a good pool of data to draw from—the idea of comparing UFC fights to fights from other organizations (with different rules) or to the scripted WWE finishes is over the top.

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Mar 16, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Even if it is random, it is a good pool of data to draw from

In terms of looking at statistics you can’t pick a specific group that you KNOW will fit your theory and then use it as proof. That is the problem with what Dave did. He didn’t pick a random group of data, he picked one that said what he wanted.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 16, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

gotcha

wasn’t clear first time I read it.

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Mar 16, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MAKE THE ROUNDS LONGER!

Short rounds means not enough time for the jujitsu specialists to work their game. I also wish Dana would terminate the bonuses and just strat paying everybody more equally.

by Bandaka on Mar 16, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ebs and Flows (spelling?)

It’s a constant cycle that will be going on. You’ll have submissions being a big part of what’s happening and then the wrestlers will start to thrive and beat the submission guys by staying on the feet, and then you’ll get people’s game plan who is to strike, and the pure strikers will start to beat the wrestlers, but then the submission guys start to beat the strikers…. it’s always flowing. But with guys like Damian Maia and there are some more top submission guys moving to the UFC, let’s pray for the day when we get to see Kron Gracie we’ll see submissions back.

by adamdd on Mar 16, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's what I'm always saying...

the sport changes constantly. Because of the diverse nature of the game there is always a fluctuation in these numbers.

Furthermore, I’ll throw this out there. Who cares? If the sport naturally evolves to where submissions are all but completely phased out that is just a part of the game. I understand that a part of the problem is the reward system benefiting stand up fights and that is clearly wrong. But as the sport evolves it is entirely possible that the game could change to where submissions drop to 5%…I don’t think it will, but it could. And if that is the natural evolution of the game then so be it.

I don’t agree with Nate’s thing that the fight game should be equal parts range fighting, clinch work, and ground fighting. The point of the sport is to win using whatever skills (within the rules) are needed. If the evolution of the sport hits a point where the increase in submission training means that you see less submissions then that is just the way the sport moved.

That all being said I’ve made it clear that I’m in Fagan’s camp on this issue and I think the entire situation is being overblown

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 16, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

So you want MMA to devolve into sloppy kickboxing?

There is no natural evolution. If enything Dana White is God and he controls the keys to evolution. The sport is a syncretic approach to combat sports and should stay that way.

by Bandaka on Mar 16, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No...

I’m saying that if the sport NATURALLY evolves in that direction than it has to be accepted. I clearly said that it is wrong IF this happens entirely because of the reward system in place. But if it happens naturally I’m not going to complain because that is the way the sport does (and should) work

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 16, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The statistic show that contrary to popular internet belief the sport hasn’t devolved into sloppy kickboxing, this is a perception issue not a real life occurance issue. We’ve had a handful of higher profile fighters that have slid into sloppy kickboxing and that is what people see but the actual sport is still fairly solid and stable in it’s statistical breakdown.

Is there a problem, yes but it is one that will correct itself as guys like Jorge Gurgel lose their contracts due to sloppy kickboxing and guys realize that sloppy kickboxing is never going to win them a belt. The fight of the night issue is also overrated in this talk as plenty of fights get the award that weren’t two guys with crappy striking going at it in a stand up war for the sake of a bonus. When you look at statistics you can’t tell which ones were sloppy kickboxing and which ones were actually great fights. There is nothing wrong with lots of striking in fights it’s just the occasional oddball who relies on striking beyond his ability at it.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Couldn’t agree more.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Mar 16, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think one point is the FOTN bonus

Knockout of the Night and Submission of the Night somewhat balance out, however Fight of the Night usually goes to a stand up war and therefore provides a second opportunity for a large bonus in a stand up fight.

Perhaps doing away with the FOTN bonus will remove an artificial inducement to avoid ground fighting…

by Razreshat on Mar 16, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would argue that instead of ditching the FOTN bonus, that they re-work the “criteria” employed to decide which fight wins this bonus. I use the term criteria very loosely because I’m fully aware that all of these are quite subjective.

However the types of fights that are consistently awarded this bonus could certainly influence the frequency fights go to the ground going forward. I don’t know if there is any real trend with the types of fights being rewarded this bonus, as I can recall that Sanchez v. Stevenson was awarded FOTN but that is an n of 1. Moreover, I should also mention that only a sub-set of fighters approach their fights looking to garner FOTN honors while plenty of others are primarily concerned with winning the fight; so this theoretical influence is far from ubiquitous.

by Estrada on Mar 16, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I say..

either get rid of FOTN bonuses or let the fans vote. What pleases the fans most is the fight of the night…I mean…that IS the point of a bonus of that nature.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 16, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

That is a good idea. They can have a fan vote on ufc.com. The only problme with that is ballot stuffing.

by Bandaka on Mar 16, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lets face it one of the things us uber-smart internet MMA fans grouch about is the casual fans ignorance/lack of tolerance for the ground game. If casual fans voted on fight of the night then chances are you would get even more sloppy kickboxing and a real bias towards fan favorites not to mention it would pretty much eliminate preliminary card fights from consideration because a lot of fans don’t see them.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

What are the casual fans going to vote for? Whatever fight was the closest to a pro-wrestling “match”. That’s where the casual fan is coming from, a steady diet of flashy theatrical violence.

I hate nothing more than hearing casual fans boo an active and technical ground fight.

by MMAcGyver on Mar 16, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is a tendancy to forget that hardcore fans are the minority, it’s the casual fans that pay MMA’s bills. It does seem that as the sport is growing the fanbase is getting smarter about the sport so maybe this is a problem that will fix itself too.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's the point though...

Fight of the Night shouldn’t reward the least appreciated fight on the broadcast. I get it that casual fans are a pain in the ass. But fight of the night is a bonus that should go to the fight that the most fans found the most enjoyable.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 16, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stop awarding points to takedowns

Maybee part of the reason is that Submission specialists have found it detrimental to pull guard in a fight becuase it appears as if their opponent is doing takedown.

by Bandaka on Mar 16, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

AH HA!

That’s the ticket! Punish wrestlers to benefit submission guys!

/sarcasm

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 16, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fucking wrestlers!

by subo on Mar 16, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mazagatti approves this message.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Mar 16, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn’t that increase sloppy kickboxing disease instead of decreasing it?

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think most of the time when a fighter pulls guard the judge knows what the fighter is doing. I mean, this sport and the fans watching it have evolved so much. When fighters work their way back into guard after being in side control or having their opponent take their back, the crowd cheers, which never used to happen. I think people don’t give enough credit to the judges, who largely do a good job.

Also, it might just be possible that people have trained more and more on their sub defense so they can use their gameplan more effectively. Strikers and wrestlers have developed some pretty good sub defense, a skill that many have lacked in the past. Guys with good BJJ aren’t getting as many subs, it takes the aces like Maia to score the subs because their BJJ game is so good it is almost impossible to learn how to defend it.

[IMG]http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/4676/38612706m.th.gif[/IMG][/URL]

by xDieseLx on Mar 16, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In BJJ it has to be clear that you are pulling guard. Even if the guy fakes a shot and you pull on him, they get points for a takedown.

by szucconi on Mar 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe not stop awarding points for take downs...

But is there a possible way to add criteria here?

It is hard to see take down points be awarded to a fighter that is being welcomed by the other fighter into their guard to attempt submissions.

If a fighter pulls guard and by choice is taken to the ground ending up on the bottom, does the fighter on top really deserve any credit for a take down?

by MMAcGyver on Mar 16, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Judging is already subjective so individual judges can already decide things like that for themselves.

by who me on Mar 16, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

"All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it." -- H.L. Mencken
Start posting on Bloody Elbow »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Weoweoweodotdeviantartdotcom_by_weoweoweo_small
TUF 10 Contestant, Darrill Schoonover to Return to Active Army Duty
Tracy_lee_martin_mcneil_small
UPDATE: It's (99%) on: Machida / Rua II on May 1st
Headkick-lg_small
Judging Change: Reward Flashy Fighters?
Small
The REAL Controversy at UFC 106
Mirkneebaraim640_small
Georges St Pierre vs. Dan Hardy to Headline UFC 109 in February?

Recent FanPosts

Weoweoweodotdeviantartdotcom_by_weoweoweo_small
How's Taste My Tweet Tweet? Mixed Martial Arts on Twitter for the 4th Week of November
Alvarezavatar_small
UPDATE: SRC x DREAM NYE Event Now OFFICIAL!
Weoweoweodotdeviantartdotcom_by_weoweoweo_small
Ben Saunders Still Wants a Rematch Against Mike Swick (UPDATE)
Picture_010_small
What if: Dan Gable would have been a fighter?
Neil_lomax_small
UFC vs. Boxing PPV dilemma (May 1, 2010 edition)
Weoweoweodotdeviantartdotcom_by_weoweoweo_small
Dan Hardy: "Josh Koscheck Is Like A Piece of S*** That Just Won't Flush."
Picture_010_small
What if Kimbo beats Houston Alexander?
Just_tiger_small
Kim Couture (10K) top earner at Strikeforce Challengers V
Just_tiger_small
Josh Burkman KO's Brandon Melendez at Throwdown Showdown V

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

MMA Rankings

USA Today / SB Nation Consensus MMA Rankings