Making Sense of DREAM 7 Ratings
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 10:53 AM EDT
67 comments
Promoted to the front page from the FanPosts by Luke Thomas.
DREAM Featherweight GP winners pose during post-fight press conference. Photo from Sherdog.com
When I saw the ratings for the tape-delayed airing of DREAM 7 on Tokyo Broadcasting System, I was surprised. After DREAM 5 and DREAM 6 pulled down ratings in the 9%-10% range, an average of 2.4% seemed unthinkable. Yet here were the usual suspects like FightOpinion, and Bloodyelbow, using the inevitable "Nightmare" headlines to describe how bad things were. But something wasn't adding up.
Zach Arnold's piece said that the ratings were so bad, news sources like Sports Navigator "can't keep their eyes closed" any longer, but the report in question simply stated the ratings figures without any positive or negative analysis, like usual. Between these three sites, there was no real information to help put this rating into context.
As it turns out, DREAM 7 was aired at 1:20 AM local time on Sunday night. And unlike previous Sunday/Monday DREAM shows, it did not air during a long holiday weekend, but before a work day during the busiest time of the year in Japan. In other words, this was the worst time slot given to new DREAM programming on TBS by a wide margin. To compare this to previous events airing in prime time on big TV nights would seem ridiculous, but these blogs are doing it anyway.
Another piece of this puzzle which evidently has gone overlooked is the expectation for this event. It was put in a dreadful timeslot with no major stars and no real main event.
The average rating for the time slot on TBS, from what I gather, is about 2% to 3%. The Shinya Aoki vs. David Gardner fight peaked at 4% because it was actually aired out of order as the opening bout, ostensibly so people could watch it and then go to sleep!
An average rating of 2.5% is certainly not outstanding, but it is far from a disaster, or even being abnormal. Last year, a new Macross anime series debuted in the same time slot on the same channel to a 2.0% average and was considered a relative success.
In the past, DREAM reps have been unafraid to talk about the consequences that low ratings could bring for their promotion's future on television. But there is no concern being expressed over the DREAM 7 rating, in the Japanese media or by the promoters themselves. From Tony Loiseleur's DREAM 7 Notebook column on Sherdog:
Queued up as the first fight for the tape-delayed airing on TBS, the Aoki-Gardner bout was the highest-rated match of the broadcast, according to Dream event producer Keiichi Sasahara. Overall, the Dream 7 replay did a 2.4 rating in its midnight timeslot, a satisfying rating relative to its time of broadcast, Sasahara said.
So there you have it. The DREAM 7 rating is not a nightmare; it is actually within a normal range, when put into proper context. To compare the number directly with past shows in prime TV hours is to give a warped perspective of matters. The real test of the promotion's drawing ability will be prime time events like the April DREAM 8 card.
[This post originally from MMANews.com]
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Good stuff, smoogy.
I’m not sure if I buy the conclusion, but I certainly appreciate the context.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 11, 2009 3:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Some other notes:
-The announced crowd of 19,528 is a sellout for that configuration of the Saitama Super Arena. In other words, they are still regularly drawing crowds comparable to the biggest UFC shows, even if that figure is inflated a little by comped tickets.
-Unlike Dynamite, the event aired live on SkyPerfecTV PPV. Unfortunately, there is no data available on buyrates.
-Events like DREAM 6 typically air at 7PM, the start of what is known as “Golden Time” in Japan.
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 3:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Please, every MMA show now a days has comped tickets. UFC comped 1/3 of their show not too long ago, and the Ohio show was either heavily comped or the ticket prices were incredibly dirt cheap.
Also, everyone knows that this DREAM was not meant for the ratings given the time slot, etc.
DREAM.8 will be a much more “major” show on primetime TV for them.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, DREAM.9 will be aired on PRIME TIME, I believe.
I will have to double check.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
CHICKEN LITTLE SAYS
OMG THE SKY IS FALLING THE SKY IS FALLING.
Hate to say I told you so. Smoogy said it better than I could. No BIG name attractions besides Aoki and Kawajiri in semi-squash matches + non-live broadcast delayed into the night + smallest guys to ever headline a big show = small ratings. Cheap show to put on but you can’t exactly bring home the bacon with circumstances like that
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Mar 11, 2009 3:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh BTW
What is NBC’s Strikeforce ratings? I’m postive they bring home a 2.5% at least right?
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Mar 11, 2009 3:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Its a different system in the U.S., but they consistently were doing better than average ratings in the timeslot and sometimes beating the late night shows, which was unusual.
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoogy I'm skwirrl :P
Sarcasm :)
But yes they are doing well and i’m happy for them. Just trying to point out Strikeforce draws like a .4 or .5% or something like that in their latenight timeslot.
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Mar 11, 2009 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortuneately
We all got ahead of ourselves talking about DREAM 8 and its drawing power with Kid because he is of course not on that card and on DREAM 9 instead. I’m still thinking DREAM 8 draws more along the lines of an 8-10% rating.
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Mar 11, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might not get fronted
But it will get recc’d 3 times within 6 comments
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Mar 11, 2009 3:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The timeslot was pointed out in other articles, of course them being stuck in such a timeslot should be a real sign in and of itself. The very fact that people keep having to try and spin Dream’s numbers makes me worry about the numbers even more. Lets face it if the network was happy with Dream’s past ratings they wouldn’t of stuck them with a late night Sunday timeslot to start with. Heck the horrid timeslot scares me more than the rating news did anyway. This is comparible in the US to Americas got talent getting moved from Primetime to the Last Call with Carson Daily timeslot and then saying that everything is ok because it got comparible rating numbers to what Carson Daily normally gets.
As for the Macross ratings, anime is regularly ran in those timeslots and is regularly recorded to be watched later. The ratings weren’t bothersome for Macross because they were aiming at the TIVO crowd and future DVD sales to start with, live ratings weren’t really what they were aiming at anyway. Macross Frontier was popular enough that it’s one season run also spawned 3 chart topping pop albums and a feature movie. Anime and Dream MMA are running on completly separate marketing plans, Anime shows similar to Macross Frontier don’t normally run in the Golden Time to start with but for a major MMA event to not be in that time slot is an odd occurance.
I guess I am the only one so far that doesn’t buy into this so far but then when you get right down to the big picture who cares what any of us think, Dream will live or die by what the networks think about their ratings not what internet bloggers write. Call it what you will and we will just have to hope that things are going to be fine for them in the future.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 4:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I should note that anime in Japan does air all over the clock timewise, I didn’t want to make it sound like I think anime only runs late night because I know that isn’t the case, but it is a common timeslot for it, particularly some of the more focused series.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some good points. I think you could say DREAM on TBS has taken a slight step back this year in the sense that this event wasn’t given major attention, and was set up as more of a prelude to DREAM 8 and DREAM 9. Plus they have adjusted their live schedule so that there are a couple of smaller arenas booked for non-Golden Time shows instead of running at Saitama for every event. But they’re still running a full slate of shows, and still getting those prime slots, so I remain somewhat optomistic. You are right that it all comes down to the network demand. But with Ishii looming on the horizon, I think the extremely gloomy picture painted by some people is a bit misinformed.
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There seems to just be problems with selling the sport in Japan currently. I don’t think Dream is going anywhere(FEG is healthy) but lower ratings translate to lower revenue from shows which translates to them having to cut expenses(which normally means fighter cost for events). It’s not the death of Dream a lot of people seem to be predicting but it does look like they are going to have to face a new reality as to where their product stands in the marketplace.
I’m hoping it pushes them to find a better tv outlet in the States to suppliment their income but that’s mainly because I don’t have HDnet and it would be easier for me to watch if they could end up someplace like FSN. Sometimes I’m just self centered that way.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 4:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FSN is terrible.
Real MMA won’t be on FSN anymore after what happened to Affliction and the IFL.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FSN is a fairly major cable outlet, HDnet is not. Of course there are all sorts of channels that Dream would be a good fit on(that are on my tv :D )
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My understanding is that DREAM.9 and DREAM.11 will be aired in primetime. The numbers from those events will likely have higher expectations, mainly due to Kid’s assumed participation.
But yeah, people need to quit wishing doom upon DREAM. They aren’t going to fold, so stop wishing that upon them.
Also, never take anything that Zach Arnold says for anything other than face value. The guys loves to hate anything that has to do with Japan.
by AnonymousA on Mar 11, 2009 5:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been reading Zach Arnold’s stuff for a couple of years now and I haven’t seen this hatred of everything Japan that people keep pointing out, if anything he seems to be obsessed with the Japanese fight scene (particularly Japanese pro wrestling). Just because he says things you don’t agree with doesn’t mean that he is hating on them.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Japan MMA...
….had a headline “DREAM 7 Ratings SUCKED!”
They (he) must Japan biased like FO & BE.
Seriously last year there were 3 primetime shows on TBS (Dream 1, 5 & 6), this year they have only two. Sure everything is perfectly fine.
by Venom77 on Mar 11, 2009 7:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So would it be a success if the UFC over the weekend did 200k buys? Or maybe if Spike aired a UFN at 01:30 on a Sunday night in favor of Manswers for it’s 21:00 slot, that would be success? Because to me, that’s the context that matters. What did TBS air in that 19:00 time slot you had mentioned instead?
I know some of you guys love to bear this huge weight on your shoulders defending Japan MMA from the big, mean blogs picking on it. The desire is to have Dream and Japan MMA taken as seriously as NA MMA. Yet, you’re basically like “they lead with their most important match first, so they could get to bed.” And that was… Aoki vs. Gardner. Are you serious? This is their marquee matchup that they want everyone to see? They have this great FWGP and the match they lead with that they want people to see before they go to sleep is Aoki vs. Gardner. As long as this is their attitude, you’re going to find that a lot of people aren’t going to take them seriously.
I also find the talk of sites like BE hating on Japan MMA funny when you have someone like Chris Nelson putting together some great work with the Dream FWGP previews.
All my hating aside, I can’t wait to watch the FWGP on HDNet this weekend. I’ve been avoiding reading about it as much as possible.
by LiuLang on Mar 11, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seriously, smoogy
“Yet here were the usual suspects like FightOpinion, and Bloodyelbow, using the inevitable "Nightmare” headlines to describe how bad things were. But something wasn’t adding up."
So we are a “usual suspect” because I quote someone else? I wasn’t necessarily endorsing everything Arnold was saying, just that I found it post-worthy. Which, btw, I do all the time. Interesting content isn’t always news or opinions I endorse.
And I really love this revisionist history that we here are BE are the “usual suspects”? In what way, that compared to basically every other blog we give the Japanese MMA scene FAR more treatment? If that’s the case, then guilty as charged. I mean, seriously: was there any other blog that even did a live blog the DREAM event? Is there any other major blog that goes into HALF of the Japanese scene details that we do? No. Not even close.
Japan is a difficult market and scene to grasp, particularly with second hand information, but the notion that we are reflexively one way or the other on the scene is pure fantasy. Please knock it off.
Stop with the nonsense. It’s just tiresome at this point.
by Luke Thomas on Mar 11, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 6 recs
Not exactly revisionist history…not sure what you were trying to say there…
by AnonymousA on Mar 11, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, you sure are sensitive these days.
I know you didn’t necessarily endorse FO’s post, in fact you didn’t really add anything of substance to the topic, but all I said was you used the “Nightmare” descriptor along with him, which is true. BE is a “usual suspect” in the sense that it is a blog that covers MMA, and has half-heartedly picked up DREAM ratings stories in the past.
Chris Nelson does a great job of contextualizing why Japanese MMA is important to fans of world-class competition, so kudos to him. You seem to more be interested lately in antagonizing Chase Beebe than discussing stuff like the actual DREAM fights, though I understand its not a hot topic for blogging since it doesn’t generate the hits that a UFC/Dana White story will. Mo money mo problems.
Were you being reflexive by repeating the “Nightmare” headline from that site? That is a matter of opinion. But I just wanted to provide a little context that the FO and BE posts lacked. Don’t bite my head off because you don’t like being innocently called a “usual suspect”. Its a turn of phrase, I’m sure you are familiar with it.
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess he had problems with your characterizations of Bloody Elbow like you had problems with Bloody Elbow’s characterizations of DREAM.7 ratings. I see his point, but that’s doesn’t matter. Luke fronted it, so at least you can’t accuse us of censoring your opinion.
by Cannon Jacques on Mar 11, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, what happened to the american broadcast? i love Dream. last few my DVR grabbed em for me on HDNET. but not this time.
was it not aired here? if that’s the case, perhaps Dreams management is having some problems. I know broadcasting to America isn’t a top priority but if this is the 1st one that wasn’t, it suggests someone dropped the ball and perhaps that could be extended to how the event was marketed in japan.
or my DVR fucked up and the above comments should be ignored. in which case, someone let me know so i can get mad at dishnet…which is already becoming a favorite hobby of mine.
by Headkick on Mar 11, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s airing this Friday night. HDNet basically said it wasn’t worthwhile to air it live this time around.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 11, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just like TBS?
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Mar 11, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure how DREAM/TBS decide which shows to air live, but they decide way in advance (for instance DREAM.8 next month will be live, and DREAM.11 in September). HDNet seems to play it a little more loose with their scheduling.
Unfortunately I just found out both DREAM.8 and the K-1 MAX Final 16 will be on tape delay in April. Very disappointing.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 11, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be disappointed…but I don’t get HDNet. Would rather be disappointed.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Mar 11, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No quite,
HDNet is saying that that it is easier for them to air shows live if they occur on Friday or Saturday since those are MMA days for HDNet. It has to do more with scheduling and ratings for live shows than anything. If the next DREAM is on a Sunday again, they may do the same thing. Sengoku is on a Friday or Saturday, so they have no problems showing it live.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah, I forgot HDNet’s Sundays are already packed with essential programming like “Phish: Live from Bongakazooaroo” and “Indigo Girls: Seriously, Is Anyone Watching This?”
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 11, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, If they aired it tonight instead of NASA on HDNet I’d be pissed. They have their priorities in order, you need to get yours in line.
by Phildo on Mar 11, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sundays are the LIVE CONCERT all day days in their programming.
Who are we to say, it probably gets more sponsorships and ratings than MMA.
:-D Jack Johnson FTL!
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very true. I just know Sunday is the only day I don’t flip to HDNet.
Contributor Emeritus - BloodyElbow.com
by Chris Nelson on Mar 11, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Further more, if they ran a show on Thursday, it would shown on a one day delay?
I guess this is the new policy and the worst thing they want is MMA shows on Sundays.
Probably some scheduling conflicts with different departments at HDNet.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just the fact that Zach Arnold would say “DREAM defenders come out” shows his immediate bias.
by AnonymousA on Mar 11, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, it does. It’s obviously meant to be a derisive post, which implies the bias.
by AnonymousA on Mar 11, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m completely shocked that a site with the word opinion in the title would have some sort of bias.
by Phildo on Mar 11, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s a description of what he was linking to, a defense of Dream’s ratings, it doesn’t point to anything obvious except for the fact that he reads other sites. It does show that you seem to have a bias against that site though.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t always agree with Zach Arnold, but he’s critical of a number of MMA orgs. Period.
by Cannon Jacques on Mar 11, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s critical of almost everything, that’s not a bias that just seems to be how he writes.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh. The thing is, I’m just trying to provide a small measure of context that sites like FO seem reluctant to share. Did I do some heavy positive spin job? Obviously not. I’m saying it wasn’t a disastrous rating, it was a normal one for a bad time slot. If Zach can explain the late night Japanese TV landscape in clearer terms… what is he waiting for?
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’ll write an essay on that eventually I’m sure (probably on MMAmemories).
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t understand. Dream sucks? I read how people love the half ass UFC PPV’s or the lower echelon talent UFN Live shows, but Dream sucks? Put the same FW Grand Prix participants in a tourny under the WEC banner, show it in Vegas, and most of these jerks would praise it.
by bubbafat on Mar 11, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Japan-MMA's article headline did
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Mar 12, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a huge difference between “”http://www.japan-mma.com/2009/03/dream-7-ratings-sucked.html" >Dream 7 ratings suck" and “Dream sucks”.
by who me on Mar 12, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That didn’t work….. The Japan-MMA article’s title is Dream 7 ratings suck not Dream sucks.
http://www.japan-mma.com/2009/03/dream-7-ratings-sucked.html
by who me on Mar 12, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the hell are you talking about?
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Mar 11, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoogy: UFC Credentialed FightLinker Has You On Notice
by MMASuPreMaCy on Mar 11, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hah, “avid Fightlinker hater”. He read my file.
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The comments section of that post is pretty hard to read. The fact that anyone would look to that CRS guy as an authoritative source of information for anything MMA-related is depressing. His rambling theories on Japanese MMA are completely off.
by smoogy on Mar 11, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am impressed that you managed to stomach that crap enough to read what he writes, I see the name/picture and skip to the next one.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Mar 11, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea if his name is on the article I just skip it.
by who me on Mar 11, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Why did FL give him authorship? It’s atrocious.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Mar 12, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand...
The event was on a tape delay, on at MIDNIGHT, and wasn’t headlined by any major drawing fighters other than Aoki. How is a 2.5% rating bad or “nightmarish”? Because it is being compared to other events that likely received more PR, had better/more drawing fighters? It makes no sense.
I wouldn’t expect much more than maybe a 3-4 on a non-holiday weekend, at MIDNIGHT. I fail to see how these are nightmarish at all, it just seems like a filler event to get the FWGP opening round over with and to move on.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Mar 12, 2009 9:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually I think you pretty much spellled out why in your first paragraph. When has Dream been in any of those situations before? Saying, well the ratings weren’t that bad when you look at the big picture but ignoring that the “big picture” was just plain bad to start with doesn’t make a lot of sense either, nor does saying that this “special event presentation” only got average ratings for that timeslot so everything is ok. Dream only does so many shows a year and this one was not only weak, tape delayed and stuck in a horrible timeslot it failed to draw the network any more viewers than they would normally get in that timeslot with regular programming either. So no it’s not the end of the world but there is absolutly nothing about the situation that can be though of as being good either.
by who me on Mar 12, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely wouldn’t say it was good, but what did people expect? A god damn 10% rating at Midnight? That was not going to happen with Aoki taking on a nobody.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Mar 12, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t expect them to get shoved into a midnight time slot at all, that’s a bad sign in and of itself.
by who me on Mar 12, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These DREAM events are scheduled so they usually fall on a holiday or long weekend. It could just be that they had no good available slot for this time of the year.
If this was the new status quo? Yeah, I’d be worried. But they still have good timeslots on their 2009 schedule.
by smoogy on Mar 12, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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