UFC 95 Betting Odds

by Nick Thomas on Feb 8, 2009 12:02 PM EST in MMA News

Are up:

Diego Sanchez (21-2-0) -285 vs. Joe Stevenson (34-9-0) +225

Nate Marquardt (29-8-2) -260 vs. Wilson Gouveia (12-5) +200

Dan Hardy (20-6-1) -150 vs. Rory Markham (16-4-0) +120

Demian Maia (10-0-0) -285 vs. Chael Sonnen (23-9-1) +225

Josh Koscheck (14-3-0) -450 vs. Paulo Thiago (7-0-0) +370

Junior Dos Santos (7-1-0) -240 vs. Stefan Struve (16-2-0) +215

Per Eklund (15-3-1) -170 vs. Evan Dunham (7-0-0) +160

Neil Grove (6-1-0) -115 vs. Mike Ciesnolevicz (16-3-0) +105

Shannon Gugerty (11-3-0) -300 vs. Jeff Lawson (12-2-0) +280

Terry Etim (11-2-0) -430 vs. Justin Buchholz (9-2-0) +390

Paul Kelly (8-1-0) -410 vs. Troy Mandaloniz (3-1-0) +370

- Undercard odds from mmaplayground.com (not sure where they got them from)

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Only thing...

sticking out to me as great odds this early on is Marquardt.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Feb 8, 2009 12:14 PM EST reply actions

I would also add Diego. Not that the odds are really a problem, I just am always leery of a guy’s first fight after a weight class drop, especially against a good fighter like Stevenson. You just never know how they will react to the cut.

If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.

by BJJDenver on Feb 8, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

Exactly..

why I am a bit hesitant to go with Diego as a guy with “great odds”

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Feb 8, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

Also, it is hard to picture Joe losing 3 straight, though that is a possibility here.

If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.

by BJJDenver on Feb 8, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

Diego

Sanchez should win, but I won’t bet on a guy making his debut at a lighter weight class.

by argyle on Feb 8, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think Buchholz might be a good play with odds that long

Not saying Etim is a fraud in anyway – but I don’t think he’s a huge LW by any means and Buchholz is more well rounded and has Urijah to practice with on the ground before this fight which is perfect as Urijah is one of the better submission grapplers in the game. Etim is no real threat on the feet and he isn’t the caliber on the ground that Urijah is IMO. I’m willing to take a gamble that Buchholz has a good camp and can beat Etim on the feet and hold his own on the ground. Then I just have to hope he doesn’t get robbed on the decision.

He’s a 2-1 dog… Maybe 2.5 but I don’t see nearly 4-1 even with homefield to Etim.

Gimme 1 Round!

by skwirrl on Feb 8, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

I’m surprised Diego is such a favorite, at a new weight and against Stevenson.

and I just realized BJ wrote the same thing, so I’ll say “yeah, what he said”.

by mythbuster on Feb 8, 2009 12:32 PM EST reply actions

I figured that Hardy would be a slightly bigger favorite. His striking is really unorthodox and technical, while Markham has been TKO’d four times (though once was from a cut).

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Feb 8, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions

I think Hardy is overrated. Markham has defensive liabilities, but that’s definitely a fight he can win.

by Luke Thomas on Feb 8, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions

i’m not kos fan, but he should be closer to -800. paulo has no shot.

by pmac06340 on Feb 8, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Have we ever established why Koscheck is fighting Paulo Thiago?

by Cannon Jacques on Feb 8, 2009 3:04 PM EST reply actions

Same reason Werdum fought Dos Santos?

by Buddha Brown on Feb 8, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

Do you expect Thiago to knock Kos out? How’s that for answering another question with a question?

by Cannon Jacques on Feb 8, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

Was dos Santos expected to knock out Werdum?

by mythbuster on Feb 8, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

Only after people saw five seconds of him hitting mitts on Dana’s vlog.

by ilostmydog on Feb 8, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe not expected by the masses...

but one dude saw it coming:

Chris Nelson: I’ve been questioning the UFC’s decision to ink “Cigano” since the day this was announced. His fights in Brazil never impressed me much, but the recent glimpses of his training certainly have. (He’s in noticably better shape, and has been working with Amaury Bitetti on his BJJ.) Werdum has some of the worst luck in MMA, and now that he’s been all but promised a title shot if he gets past the virtually unknown Dos Santos, I’m fully expecting Junior to pull out the upset. Dos Santos via TKO, Round 1.

I guess we should ask Chris if Paulo Thiago is a contender. Oh, shit. That wasn’t a question. Was it?

by Cannon Jacques on Feb 8, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

ok but..

Who listens to THAT guy :)

by mythbuster on Feb 8, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions

Hold up a minute

I’ve been on both ufc.com and uk.ufc.com and can’t find any mention of the following bouts

Shannon Gugerty vs. Jeff Lawson
Neil Grove vs. Mike Ciesnolevicz
Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham

Of those three fights, the one still omitted by Wikipedia is Gugerty / Lawson one.

(scratches head) wonder why there’s no mention of these bouts on the UFC sites??

by VikingPhotography on Feb 8, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions

I dunno about Gugerty/Lawson, are you even sure thats supposed to be on the card?

Cies and Dunham are both late replacements, and the UFC sites are slow as hell to be updated.

by Michaelthebox on Feb 8, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

I was noting that the Gugerty / Lawson bout was listed in the main post

I have no idea if it’s supposed to be on the card… having eleven bouts (six undercard, five main) would imply a quantity over quality strategy or sorts.

From a (selfish) personal standpoint, having more bouts is a bitch. I need at least some time between fights so I can swap out memory cards on my cameras and download / review / edit / transmit a handful of pictures (at a minimum) from each fight. That’s why I always pray for quick, decisive finishes to bouts :)

by VikingPhotography on Feb 9, 2009 3:58 AM EST up reply actions

I'm in no hurry here

But as good as dos Santos looked, Struve intrigues me. And I haven’t decided how much Grove is going to lose for me yet, but it will be some.

by Derek Suboticki on Feb 8, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions

Very interested to see how Struve looks.

If you're not submitting, you're just rolling around with another guy.

by BJJDenver on Feb 8, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

by mythbuster on Feb 8, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

Just loving Stevenson at that number

Can’t understand why he’s not favored. What has Diego done lately? And now he’s cutting? The guy has looked lost since leaving Jackson’s.

Bet the house on Joe Daddy, then retire. Thank me later.

Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion

by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 8, 2009 9:34 PM EST reply actions

yeah that split decision loss to fitch is so horrible

Seriously that comment was retarded

Gimme 1 Round!

by skwirrl on Feb 8, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Oh and while MMA math is more shakey over longer time periods

He beat Florian who just got done crushing Joe Daddy.

Gimme 1 Round!

by skwirrl on Feb 8, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, those were both the same Florian, too.

I like how you put the disclaimer that your point didn’t matter before making the point.

It saves time.

Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion

by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 9, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

I'd rather keep my house...

but thanks.

If Stevenson wants to keep it standing he’s got 35% chance of winning. If Stevenson wants to go to the ground I’d move him down to like 20%.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Feb 8, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

No thanks. Unless the cut affects Sanchez badly, there’s very little chance he loses this fight.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Feb 9, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions