Rare Burden on Rampage Jackson at UFC 96

At UFC 96, Rampage Jackson is being put in a rare situation. He is the sole focus and main event of an American pay per view show in a non-title match. In the last few years, only Chuck Liddell has been put in this position. It is being done out of necessity and desperation, but it really is a big test of how much of a draw Quinton Jackson is.
Robert Joyner wrote an article claiming the show is a referendum on Rampage:
Both UFC 92 and 94 bumped up around the million buy level, both benefiting greatly from the level of awareness shined on the sport via ESPN’s coverage of UFC 91. The rising tide from UFC 91 lifted the UFC 92 and 94 boats, with the last two domestic PPV’s outperforming expectations. Just using the old gut instinct, before the gold rush of the past 3 or 4 events the UFC would probably have been happy with a a number in the low 400k buy range for this weak card. With a surplus of new buyers in the market, though, it wouldn’t be totally surprising for this card to possibly bump around or over 500k.
I think these expectations are way too high considering this card. The undercard is abysmal, the semi-main event has one guy that is a proven non-draw and a guy no casual fans know, and the main event only has one drawing star. If this show does better than Anderson Silva v. Dan Henderson a year ago in March I think it has to be considered a success.
I also question the idea that there is a strong correlation between ESPN coverage and the last few strong buyrates. The first time there was a huge wave of ESPN coverage for the UFC, UFC 71 did 675,000 buys and the next two shows did extremely disappointing numbers.
If this show does anything above 400,000 it is reason to celebrate. If it hits 500, then Rampage really is a huge draw. It's very hard to assess Rampage as a draw because there are always qualifying factors. He did a big number against Liddell, but that was Liddell at his peak and it had all the ESPN coverage. He did a huge rating with Henderson, but it was the title unification match on free TV. He did a very good number with Forrest, but it was coming off a full season of TUF. He had a gigantic number in December, but it was part of a big triple main event. This is the first time a whole show has been placed on his shoulders to carry.
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Personally, I believe that Rampage is one of the UFC’s biggest stars and is a good draw but as you said, the rest of the card is so lacking in name talent that I don’t know how good of a number this will do. If 93 did 320,000 buys then I would expect this card to do at least that much, but I don’t see how it could do more than, say, 450,000. Personally I’m very excited for the Gonzaga vs. Carwin fight, but that doesn’t mean the casual fans are, and after that fight the rest of the card looks pretty thin to me. There are some decent matchups, but nothing with any kind of title implications like the main and co-main events have. A part of me hopes that this show doesn’t get a lot of buys to show Dana and crew that they actually have to put a little effort in if they want to keep getting the big numbers that they have with the last few shows, if this card gets 600,000 buys then we might start getting 2 shows a month with main events like James Irvin vs. Andre Gusmao.
Yes. Yes he is.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 25, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
He has an obsession with kneeing people “in da butt!”
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
lulz
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 25, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
I can’t imagine what he’s supposed to do differently in light of this ‘rare burden.’
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 25, 2009 7:50 PM EST reply actions
Nothing.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 25, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
This show seems to be underpromoted. There may be some exciting matches on the undercard, but I have a feeling that they won’t be the ones that are aired. I see some boring wrestling matches, a lot of fights that don’t mean anything for their divisions, and some relatively unknown fighters on this card. Doing 500K in buys may be extremely difficult, good thing Sanchez v. Stevenson was so good overall, that should boost the numbers.

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