Sobering Buyrate News for UFC and Affliction
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 2:49 PM EST
in MMA News
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PrintDave Meltzer has buyrate updates on the UFC and Affliction in his latest newsletter(subscription only--it's worth it.) First, UFC 94:
The trending information and some early information from a variety of sources gives an inconclusive picture nailing down how UFC 94 did, but it appears to have fallen short of early predictions regarding blowing away all previous company marks.
Based on the early trending data, it overall looks to be just over 1 million buys, with the major boost coming from Canada, where it was a record setter.
There are other reports from those with actual knowledge of PPV numbers themselves who have said at this point the confirmed number of buys was closer to 800,000, which, if true, would be a disappointment by today’s standards.
He also has an update on Affliction numbers:
For what it’s worth, Richard Schafer of Golden Boy claimed 150,000 to 200,000 buys for Day of Reckoning. Tom Atencio only said they were up 50% from the first show, which, depending on what the first show did (estimates ranging from 90,000 to 115,000), could be anywhere from 135,000 to 175,000. Independent sources continue to have the number at between 80,000 and 120,000, with most saying 100,000. It’s still too early to get what I’d consider a reliable number, but several trending patterns are in and they indicate a slight decline from the first show.
Overall, it's still too early to tell on both, but it looks like both places had some relatively disappointing news. Still, it's only disappointing compared to what they put out there. A number between 800,000 and 1 million for GSP and BJ Penn is still tremendous, and anything over 100k for a promotion without television is very good.
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It’s also because it’s difficult for the company to get the numbers themselves.
They need to get reports from each PPV distributor, and it probably takes them time to get all the numbers based on the billing cycles of the various companies and the people ordering the PPVs.
Then you add in buying replays of the event, and it takes a while. If you remember the Dana/Randy fiasco, when Lorenzo and Dana had the press conference in October of 2007 they were still talking about estimated numbers for Randy’s fight in August, and they hadn’t received any money from the PPV yet. So it takes the orgs themselves a long time to get accurate numbers, and the money. Once they get that info, they don’t give it out, so it’s going to be even harder for the media to figure it out.
It’s true, the estimates aren’t always right. Sometimes they’re too high too though.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Affliction Day of Reckoning
several trending patterns are in and they indicate a slight decline from the first show.
Really? I know the live attendance was down a bit, but this is surprising even to me.
Then again, maybe it shouldn’t be. Their promotional push was very late, it was scheduled on the same night as a fairly large boxing event, and the main event did not feature fighters with much of any record of drawing large buy rates.
It certainly suggests further proof of Affliction’s demise, which most reasonable people already concluded. Still, let us not forget:
It’s still too early to get what I’d consider a reliable number
If they can draw in the neighborhood of 100k buys while drastically cutting their payroll, then they’d be on to something. As Michael points out, this is done without television, and aside from the early days of the UFC, this sort of buy rate is unheard of without television. Still, when a company loses millions on each event, the chances of their demise increase the longer the time line extends.
As for the UFC number, I don’t know. It’s hard to shed too many tears over an 800k+ buyrate, but the Primetime special did cost over a million dollars to produce. It still represents the largest buyrate in either fighter’s career (and by a margin of 175k buys, I believe), which I think is probably a good thing, but it’s probably difficult to justify the cost of running the Primetime special at that point. Which is a shame, because it was pretty great as far as I was concerned.
My math could be totally ill-conceived, but if the Primetime special accounted for 175k buys over St. Pierre’s best buy rate to date (UFC 87 in August; 625k buys), ignoring for a second what Brock Lesnar may had added to the buy rate, then we can multiply the difference in buys between 87 and 94 (175k) by the revenue UFC earns on each PPV buy (40% of $45, or $18). 175k*$18 comes out to $3.15 million, or almost triple the cost to produce UFC Primetime.
So, is the 800k buy rate bad for the UFC, or just bad based on recent buy rates?
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
Only bad based on recent. It’s an amazing number.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Seems that way at this point. My understanding is that UFC 93 did just below the Liddell v. Ortiz 2 buyrate.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
Looks like it unless UFC 92 moves up with late buys. I think with late that one has a good chance to push over the record.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I meant UFC 92. Not UFC 93, which was in Ireland, and therefore did no more than, what, 325k or so this time?
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
Your math is right, the only thing is its very hard to know if it would have done just as well with a normal countdown show.
The thing is…doing the same numbers while giving $4 per buy to golden boy away means a net loss next to the first show of around 400k in PPV revenue in exchange for about 150k in value.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it’s true. Maybe they would have done that well with a normal countdown show.
However, the 625k buy rate that I used to come up with my number did not take into consideration the effect Brock Lesnar has on a buy rate. As you know, he is a big draw. To some degree, and I’d argue it’s fairly large, you have to discount 625k as GSP’s previous high buy rate and revert back to the buyrate accrued for UFC 83, 530k. This number is still greater than any PPV BJ has headlined to date (excluding UFC 94) by roughly 100k buys
In which case, UFC Primetime would have represented an even greater ROI than it does using my previous math.
Maybe I’m just optimistic because it’s the UFC, who obviously know how to promote in the fight business, but I think doing a PPV headline by BJ and GSP, with LYOTO MACHIDA as the semi-main (despite how I feel about him, dude is not anything close to a draw) and getting 800k buys, at a minimum, is pretty darn good. The tragedy is that most of those buys are unlikely to carry over to further BJ Penn-headlined events, as he was so summarily dispatched of that I can’t imagine many casual viewers concluded that they simply must order his next battle against KENFLO, for example.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
The number is still great, it’s just not as fantastically amazing as they hoped.
I honestly don’t think this will hurt BJ-Kenny at all. I think…history has shown that losses don’t hurt guys real bad in terms of PPV drawing. I think if anything there’s a lot more general awareness of BJ Penn now.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think it will HURT BJ v. KENFLO per se. I think what suffers is the retetnion rate from the 800k buyers for GSP v. BJ.
I suspect BJ will still enjoy his second largest buyrate to date behind his second battle with GSP. However, I don’t think anyone should expect much higher than, say, 500k buys at this point if BJ v. KENFLO is the headliner. Had BJ lost by, say, another close decision, and not even necessarily a split decision, but in a battle in which he looked entirely competitive, then I feel like more people from the UFC 94 audience would be inclined to order future PPVs headlined by BJ. The number could have been closer to 700k buys, just as an example out of thin air.
I just don’t think that’s the case having watched him get clobbered for four rounds.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
It sounds like Penn vs. Florian will be the domestic headliner for this Germany card… I wonder if they’ll be expecting a big buyrate, or something more in line with the UK PPVs.
Looks like they are really going to test things. Penn-Florian and Franklin-Silva along with Mirko. That is a very stacked card.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Atencio insists it did much better than the 1st show
I think Affliction’s main problem is finding good enough fighters for the next card without paying them too much – 1.5 mil for Andrei is simply crazy .
If they can keep up this level of cards there’s no reason why they wouldn’t continue to get 100K+ buys every show with a potential growth . I definitely think whoever bought the 1st or 2nd shows would also buy the 3rd if it has Fedor vs Barnett .
Next card should be
Fedor vs Barnett
Andrei vs Yvel/Buentello
Belfort vs Mousasi
Horodecki vs Hieron
Babalu vs Nogueira
Damn that’s the type of card that will get you numbers !
I think what we’ve seen at this point is that good fights with no or poor promotion don’t get you anything except the sound of crickets.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
I know people will laugh but I thought Affliction’s promotion wasn’t too bad , pretty good actually . I really liked the filmed interviews they did and yeah maybe they started too late but there was a week or two where you could see they made a huge effort to make the card known (At least on the internet…)
I think their cards are really good , if they keep it up there’s no reason they should fail . The hardcore mma fans in my eyes are many , or at least enough . They just need to cut their fighters payroll by a half and I think they’re profitable (am I dreaming ?)
Yeah actually , I think you’re right . They probably need something like 150+ buys AND to cut their payroll .
What can I say , the real losers are us the fans Affliction really bring good cards , they deserve to make it .
I, as a fan, would be perfectly ok with one last card, their stars going to Zuffa, mid-level guys to Strikeforce and the rest to regional shows/Japan.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, Affliction has been getting better.
They have only had 2 shows and both have put up respectable gate numbers and 100K ppv buys. Those are definitely great achievements, and would benefit them by fixing their expenses.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Feb 18, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that their video previews hyping the show were very good, especially anything with Belfort talking. Next time I would like to see a 30 minute or hour long preview special like a countdown, on HDNet, FSN or both.
I think their problems are a little more complex than just a huge fighter payroll, but there is something to be said for putting on big PPV events that actually deliver on the promises.
If you look at UFC during the TUF boom, 57 (Liddell vs. Couture III) was a landmark event and the biggest PPV to date for them. 58 was expected to come back down to earth, but it ended up being a big success, arguably because they retained so many buyers from the previous show.
I think only the most cynical of fans would argue that Affliction hasn’t put on two great, satisfying cards with thrilling conclusions. So I’m optomistic about their prospects of building an audience for their product, one that may keep them afloat longer than the naysayers might have you believe.
That first card with Megadeth was atrocious. Good fights do not, by themselves, a good card make. They may put on a third show, and they may not – but this news doesn’t help that cause, and their original plan was only for three shows anyway.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
You’re trying to dump on Banned because of the music intermission? Gimme a break. People buy PPVs for the fights, and Banned had some great ones. Like I said, only the most cynical “fans” dispute this.
You know what’s awesome? You disagree with me 100% as much as I do with you – same frequency, degree, etc – and yet I don’t question whether or not you’re a fan.
It’s like in politics when one side says ‘well, anyone who loves America would feel the way I do.’ That’s when you know that side is full of shit.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously though...
the flow of an event is very important and those godawful musical breaks really killed the momentum of the show for me. Rather than building up, up, up I had to keep starting over from a lower point because of Megadeth. But they obviously learned from that because DoR was the shit…plain and simple
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Feb 18, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I too think you’re wrong here , Yoda . Yeah the band turned out to be a mistake (though there is a link between heavy metal , tattoos and mma fans I don’t think the link is strong enough to justify Megadeath) .
How can u say the card was ‘atrociaous’ ? Arlovski vs Rothwell was great, Fedor vs Sylvia was ‘memorable’ ( u can’t call that fight great but u can’t say it sucked)
Lindland sucked I concede , Belfort had a nice performance and I can’t remember the rest.
Wanna compare it to UFC 94 ? (I think only the Machida fight could be called good on that card and that’s being generous since Thiago didn’t really show up)
What was great about Arlovski/Rothwell?
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Are you kidding ? I loved that fight ! How would u describe it then ? U know , I don’t mean to say it was the best I’ve ever seen but for me it was spectacular and definitely a fight I’ll remember and one of Andrei’s most impressive performances. It was a great KO , it had that flying knee , the blood splattered on the camera , Rothwell taking the beatings and showing tremendous heart , it had everything (most) fans would like to see in fights imo
I saw it as Rothwell taking a beating.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Well ultimately that’s what it was but how would u describe the fight ? Do you really think it ‘sucked ’ , was it ’good’ , how would u call it ?
Great fights don’t always have to be close btw…and the fight wasn’t really one sided at that
I didn’t think it was particularly entertaining because the fight went almost exactly as I thought it would only it took Arlovski longer to put him away than I anticipated. Good finish. Lackluster fight. Average-ish. It didn’t take away from the show, but it didn’t add much either.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Well to each his own , no point arguing there . I may have gone overboard calling it great but it was very good in my eyes , highly entertaining . Overall I think DOR was much better than Banned but not as a card , as the actual fights that took place .Banned as a card was one of the best cards ever i think.
I actually thought DoR was better, largely because from the first fight on HDNet to the main event, virtually every fight was exciting and built towards the spine-tingling conclusion. But people seem to have wildly divergent views on what makes a great card these days.
For instance, UFC 91 was initially panned for being top heavy with few intriguing undercard fights, but it ended up being one of the better reviewed cards because so many fights ended in knockout or submission, and the PPV showed all of them. I thought it was a fun card, pretty much what I expected, but the finishes made all the difference to some people.
UFC 92’s big fights delivered, but the night was dominated by what could charitably be called “B-level kickboxing” and there were no submissions. I actually thought this was a pretty average event (Hardonk vs. Wessel and Hamill vs. Reese were UGLY) and it went on to win a number of Fight Card of the Year awards.
Ok, so you remember two fights that were good (like Richard, I disagree with AA/Rothwell, that fight was exciting for about 30 total seconds), one that sucked, one decent and nothing else? You’re kind of proving my point for me here.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Well from UFC 94 I don’t really remember ANY fight that was good , so ? UFC 94 was a good card on paper but in reality was quite shitty (At least in my eyes) in real life . Banned was EXCELLENT (again , imo) on paper and OK in reality.
Day Of Reckoning was excellent on both fields imo . The company can only try to build good cards , you can’t blame them for what happens in reality…
I’d just rather see their top talent in the UFC. I make no secret about it.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
I like Affliction . I liked their ‘different’ stuff – the way they presented all the fighters together like in Pride , the Farrel dude with the funny voice , all the commentators besides Tito (who was so stupid it was funny , I’ll give him that) .
I don’t know , they made a big effort , I think they deserve to make it . They give good cards who are well worth their price , I just can’t see why you’d want them to stop other than to see some super fight like Vitor vs Anderson or Fedor vs Brock
It’s mainly Fedor. I feel like, if it weren’t for MMA organizations that go down in flames (RINGS, Bodog) and don’t know how to build a brand/spend money, he’d have no choice BUT to come to America and fight Brock and all the young guns.
We must not have met – I want the top 20 in every weight class in Zuffa, and I hope the UFC continues to kill and devour every org that fucks with that goal :-)
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Look , I masturbate to the possible fight of Fedor vs Brock every night before I go to bed just like any other sane mma fan does.
However , I don’t think it’s enough for me to want Affliction to go down. As I said – they bring good cards , their production is okay , it’s fun to watch , why stop ?
Fedor vs Barnett is just as fun as Fedor vs Brock (well okay , not as fun , but it’s a good well deserved fight)
I don’t think Brock would’ve taken three rounds with Gilbert Yvel, and I hate Barnett for claiming (and allowing others to claim) he’s a former UFC champ when he won the belt on roids. Dick.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
But hey, they’ll probably do one more card and then we’ll get the fight we both want.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
That’s awfully optimistic. I still think there’s a good chance that after Affliction folds we never see Fedor in another worthwhile fight and that possibility is depressing.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
DOR’s fights were more entertaining than 94’s. No argument there.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
…With the exception of the Machida fight which was awesome.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
What about the Jon Jones lateral-drop/suplex/spinning-back-elbow-off-a-single-leg clinic? That fight alone was worth $45 to me.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Feb 18, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
Damn. Forgot about that one…
Um…
The Guida fight sucked.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
I liked Banned since I was there LIVE and even if you hated the entire card, the Belfort vs Martin, AA vs Rothwell, and Fedor vs Sylvia made up for it big time.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Feb 18, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
The Fedor/Sylvia fight was awesome in its own way, but it was under a minute. Belfort/Martin was fun, though.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
I never bout into the folk saying Affliction did 150K-200K. There was just no way for that to realistically happen…not with the lack of promotion, counterprogramming, slew of UFC events back to back to back, plus right after Christmas.
http://www.mmaforreal.com
I’m sort of skeptical about that also, mostly because of what you already pointed out with regards to how it was sandwiched between some monster UFC events.
Which makes the Affliction numbers that much more impressive, that they got 100K PPV buys or greater again.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Feb 18, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
If they got the same number of buys as their first card, they’re dead.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
If there’s one positive that comes from this, I hope that it’s we won’t have to see St. Pierre/Penn III.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
so, if you factor in that affliction gets 40% of the ppv cut, 100,000 buys at 40.00 a pop….the ppv covers arlovski’s salary. anyone who says that 100,000 buys is respectable has no mind for business. affltction is about to crash and burn
If anything, they get slightly higher than 40. They aren’t getting better than 50, the split i heard is they get $20 per 45 buy, which is 44. This is opposed to the UFC which only gets around 23 I think per buy. Affliction also gave away $4 per buy to goldenboy so they actually got $16 per buy.
by Michael Rome on Feb 18, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
i don’t see how this ccould be a dissapointment for the ufc. mayb edissaointment in the way that a porsche is a dissapointment compared to a ferrari. gsp did 650,000 buys with brock lesnar this summer, and now does 800,000 to 1,000,000 buys? i hope the ufc does whatever they can to hold on to him.
GSP isn’t going anywhere – he wants to be the best fighter in the world, and he knows there’s only one place to do that.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I wish I wasn’t so cynical as to dismiss Affliction’s chances. I also wish a chocolate factory run by big-tittied hookers would call to offer me a supervisory position.
Despite the ‘vaunted’ WW division outside the UFC (scoff), I think GSP’s staying with Zuffa. Just like any other fighter whose true goal is to be the best in the world and further the sport.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
If you stopped at “GSP isn’t going anywhere” you’d be ok. Its the regurgitated Dana White talking points that betray your homer status.
Were those “talking points” in any way incorrect?
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Well, do you believe the only way to “further the sport” is to fight for Zuffa? This is getting silly.
I was only referring to his initial comment where he said, “GSP isn’t going anywhere – he wants to be the best fighter in the world, and he knows there’s only one place to do that,” to which you made your “pom-pom” comment. I actually stopped reading subo’s second comment when I got the the line about “big-tittied hookers.”
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, because who likes big-tittied hookers?
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I liked the line, but I figured we were devolving into something other than point-counterpoint right about there. :-)
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
My reputation ought to precede me at this point.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
It does.
You vacillate between serious comments and jokes about large-breasted whores.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 18, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Vacillating is one word for it. I prefer to call it ‘range’.
by Derek Suboticki on Feb 18, 2009 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Getting a million ppv buys 3 out of 4 events is sobering news?, man I hope Dana didn’t go overboard with the hookers and alchol after he hears this. Seriously though while it will probable fall short of the 1.3 million to be able to claim 3 ppvs at or over a million buys is definatelly something to have a toast about IMO. As for Affliction those numbers are exactly what most people were expecting and anything else was wishfull thinking on everybody elses part.
Sobering...
doesn’t really mean “awful” it just means that everyone is being brought back down a little bit. I’m sure Dana and the rest of the UFC Brass aren’t crying themselves to sleep over it…but yeah, it’s mildly disappointing given all the talk about how huge the ratings were.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Feb 19, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Affliction has pretty much hit the ceiling… you can’t get anymore buyers in the “mma fan” space than that.
Affliction has to create more “MMA fans” in general and “affliction fans” in specific and then convert those fans into ppv buyers…
You cant sell a $45 ppv on a 30 second spot or with a billboard… Its like walking up to a chick and saying “lets fuck”.
Affliction needs to first increase the “fan Base” and then sell ppv’s to that base… at this point it’s too late – The PPV model is locked up – no mma org can touch it.
by mmalogic on Feb 19, 2009 12:51 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
If they sell enough t-shirts to stay from the aggressive marketing that is their fight cards Affliction will be around for a while. The PPV sales were not the projected money maker. For example, right now there are hundreds of youtube videos of great fights floating around the web with Affliction plastered all over them. All these videos, in a roundabout way, help to sell t-shirts and will continue to sell t-shirts into the future.
It is short sighted to see Affliction only as a fight promotion company. This is not a PPV model, it is a t-shirt company’s marketing ploy. Worst case scenario they lose money on the fight promotion but gain it back from shirt sales in the long run. Best case scenario they make a profit or break even from the promotions and make money on t-shirts.
I agree that 30sec promos won’t sell many PPVs, but they do get MMA fans excited and those fans sell the PPVs. Also they are starting to build a rep for promoting good fights so it will get easier and easier to convince friends with a passing interest in MMA to chip in for a PPV.
Regarding your point about hitting a buy rate ceiling I also disagree. The better the UFC does, and 3 of the last 4 cards have been damn good, the more hardcore fans they will create. Hardcore fans turn friends into hardcore fans and so on. There is room for growth in this base and ironically that growth will come from the good work of the UFC as opposed to anything Affliction can do.
I think there is a 50% chance of affliction pulling off a 4th card, my feelings were more like 75% until I read Meltzer’s projected PPV numbers. I think afflictions biggest problem will be the difficulty in getting some affordable star fighters to sell PPVs, because it is a distinct possibility that very soon Fedor could toddle off to Russia to retire or decide to fight in another promotion or is injured a month before a fight or has a loss etc. If that happens the fat lady may as well start to sing. Their eggs are all in one basket and historically that has not been a good thing in fight promotion.
Ugh, not this again. They’re not making much money on increased shirt sales, certainly miles away from breaking even on the whole thing.
by Michaelthebox on Feb 19, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
I would be interested to see evidence of this, and I don’t mean that in a sarcastic way. It is the only reason they could possibly consider holding shows in the first place. There is little chance of Affliction making back their investment purely through the income generated from fight promotion for many years.
Also, to clarify I’m not talking about t-shirt sales at or around the time of the event I’m talking about the creation of brand loyalty among customers, ie someone buying their first t-shirt at an event and then going on to buy 10 more over the course of the next few years and the next PPV and some hats or what ever else Affliction make. This venture is a calculated risk by individuals with a good business acumen. They might look like a bunch of fools with dodgy tattoos and even dodgier t-shirts, but there are many folks in suits behind the scenes crunching the numbers. .
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