Does Joe Stevenson Stand a Chance?
by Luke Thomas on Feb 17, 2009 12:27 PM EST
in News
74 comments
Dave Meltzer looks into some of the more mature decisions Stevenson has made in his life that could potentially make a difference against Sanchez this weekend:
Over the past year, largely due to him thinking it was a better place to raise his four young children, he moved from Las Vegas back to Victorville, Calif., the small desert town he grew up in, and opened up his own gym, Joe Stevenson’s Cobra Kai gym. He said he found Las Vegas a great place to visit, but not a great place to live, and that he has plenty of good training partners where he lives.
He knows this fight could revitalize his career, but that a loss at this point would be the worst blow to his career. So he’s buckled down on his discipline.
“I haven’t had a drink in a year,” he said. “I haven’t chewed tobacco in three months. It’s a year-around job. If you have a fight coming up near the holidays, you don’t celebrate the holidays until after your fight.
“You can celebrate the night of the fight, but you have to get back in the gym after because the competition is.”
He cites his kids as his motivation in a fight he needs to win to stay at least within shooting range of future main event fights.
“It makes me run an extra mile or do an extra round,” he said, “because I have to do more than the other guy.
“I think I have to be in better shape [than Sanchez]. I have to be stronger. I have to be a better striker, a better wrestler. I’ve got to do all those things well because there are so many ways to win and lose. I’m not trying to be the best every day. I’m trying to be the best on that day.”
Fair enough, but Sanchez's legendary tenacity and offensive-opportunistic style is kryptonite against Stevenson, who has shown a propensity to be overwhelmed by adept, aggressive grapplers. Grapplers with what I call "transition and position emphasis" that can also use balance, base, posture and submission defense to unload ground and pound also give Stevenson trouble. There's little doubt Stevenson is an excellent submission wrestler, but his willingness to play defense too long in the face of heavy storms has been - and likely will be this weekend - his undoing.
0 recs |
74 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
For some reason I can see Stevenson pulling out a submission via guilliatine
by Bigperm on Feb 17, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
His squeeze is epic. I’ll give him that.
by Luke Thomas on Feb 17, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Diego has it covered in his training!
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Feb 17, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Plus, i think it is a disadvantage these days to train in your own gym…
by dbcb on Feb 17, 2009 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Machida and Fedor disagree. I do wonder what level of fighters Joe is training with, though.
by smoogy on Feb 17, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
doesn’t machida occasionally train with nog/blackhouse???
plus… taking the top 1% to make an argument is stupid. thats like saying you don’t need to be an athlete to be a great nba player and then saying look at larry bird
by dbcb on Feb 17, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guys like Fedor and Machida are mentally very strong… in Fedors case it’s apparent that it’s “michael jordan” type strong.
for guys like BJ penn training at the local jungle gym and crocop training in his basement doesn’t quite cut it.
by mmalogic on Feb 17, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I get what you’re saying. I think part of the problem with training at one’s own gym comes with the fact that you might be king of the hill there. I think in order to evolve, you constantly need to train with people who are better, stronger, bigger than you. Though, as smoogy says, there are exceptions, and there’s no rule stating you can’t bring in better fighters to train with for a fight. Personally, I would think being humbled as a fighter every once in a while would be a positive thing.
by pud333 on Feb 17, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, i think it is a disadvantage these days to train in your own gym…
Randy Couture disagrees.
by ufc4 on Feb 17, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but in the case of Xtreme Couture, it’s hardly just Randy running around as the head trainer, is it? It’s a team of a dozen people (or more), and they’re just as capable of designing and implementing training programs for Randy that push him as they are for other people. And it’s not just random guys, either. It’s the guys that many fighters would go to train under.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Feb 17, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Randy Couture
………..is 16-9 and 4-4 in his last 8 fights. Yeah, he is a UFC hall of famer and a great fighter but come on…..16-9? Lets not even talk about the fact that he got man handled by a newcomer in Brock Lesnar. In my opinion, Couture isnt all that great.
Read My Blog
"Life's tough, tougher if you're stupid."
by Brandon Jones on Feb 17, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
/signed
He is a legend indeed, but a legend past his prime. Regardless of the hype the UFC created for the Lesnar-Couture fight, it was still a monster vs an old man. Randy is done.
by mythbuster on Feb 17, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
was he..........
……….ever that great?
Read My Blog
"Life's tough, tougher if you're stupid."
by Brandon Jones on Feb 17, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really
Please explain. In detail. Dont just say “Couture kicks ass”
Read My Blog
"Life's tough, tougher if you're stupid."
by Brandon Jones on Feb 17, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hahahaha
comedy
Read My Blog
"Life's tough, tougher if you're stupid."
by Brandon Jones on Feb 17, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He started fighting after the age of 30. Take that in for a moment. Some fighters are past there prime at 30. His first pro fight was at UFC13. His first seven fights in the UFC were wins and five out of the seven were finishes. By the time he got his first UFC loss he was fighting in main events vs. much larger (and sometime roided up guys). He moved down when his skill couldn’t make up for the size diffrence and he did pretty well for himself. He won the belt twice at LHW and twice at HW, I think that speaks for it self. His losses fall into three areas. One is size, he is good at making up for the diffrence in size, but not every time out. Lesner smashed him, as did Rodriguez and Barnett. One third of his losses are pre-2002 sub losses and I chaulk that up to him being a wrestler and learnign the sub game as he went. The other three are a cut (Belfort who he beat twice) and two KO losses to Liddell (eye poke anyone?). The point being, his record has very little padding. His wins and losses are all high profile bouts.
by szucconi on Feb 17, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That last sentence really sums it up to me. Randy never got fed anyone. He competed at a time when you didn’t have the benefit of watching hours of tape on your opponent, or even training and fighting full time. And he’s always fought the top of the ladder. Think about a great fighter like GSP. Doesn’t his dismantling of Jay Heiron seem like about a billion years ago? Randy has fought in title matches more often than not, and though we may now look down on the Rodriguez’s of the world for flaming out and laugh and joke about how Chuck is old and Tito’s ego has expanded past his talent level, he fought these guys in their prime and won more often than not. Randy is that good, he was always that good. And if his skills are deteriorating at age 45, that’s pretty amazing too when you consider that most guys are on the downward slope in this business about a decade earlier.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Feb 17, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah...
I find it pretty shocking to think that we’re to the point now where we have to go back and play the “Was Randy Couture ever that good?” game.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Feb 17, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We’re about 2 steps away from having to do it with Liddell. Sports fans have short memories.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Feb 17, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i’d bet on diego.
historically i am an extremely bad fight handicapper.
by Headkick on Feb 17, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If ever stevenson had a chance it would be with this fight…
Having this fight as the main event is risky.
So far almost every fighter who has cut a weight class has put in a shitty performance first time out… add in the fact that its taking place across the ocean and it doesnt look good.
Swick, Vera, Anderson Silva (coming back down after moving up), etc…
Im not saying diego will lose – just the probability of him putting in a shitty performance is uncomfortably high.
by mmalogic on Feb 17, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Of course
I plan to talk about that as well. Couture’s first fight after a weight cut was superb, but obviously the equation changes in the lighter weight classes where space is at a much higher premium. I’m concerned as well.
by Luke Thomas on Feb 17, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not saying diego will lose – just the probability of him putting in a shitty performance is uncomfortably high.
This is exactly what I’m thinking. I personally think Diego will still win, but I don’t think it will be pretty. I’m afraid that if Diego tries to push himself the way he’s always done in the past, he may find himself gasing during the fight. I doubt Diego will fight a cautious fight, so this problem seems like a likely scenario to me. I don’t put it past Joe to snuff him out with a guilliatine, since that kid can seemingly choke the life out of a coconut, but I’m still calling Diego for the win.
by pud333 on Feb 17, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
still not sold on sanchez making the weight cut without being depleted. i think it’ll be a great fight regardless.
by woooburn on Feb 17, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does Joe Stevenson Stand a Chance?
No. Why? Stevia.
…
Seriously though, no…he doesn’t.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 17, 2009 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Diego trains with Mr. Miyagi...
Miyagi Dojo > Cobra Kai Gym
Geez man pay attn!
:P
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 17, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and look at his hair...
He obviously knows the wax on technique!
by mythbuster on Feb 17, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Joe’s got a better chance than one might think. Given issues around weight cutting for the first time, Joe’s definitely got a chance. Stevia or no stevia :)
by pud333 on Feb 17, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he acts like he’s making some great sacrifice by not chewing. What percentage of pro athletes actually use tobacco anymore? I’m guessing it’s way below 1%.
by ufc4 on Feb 17, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you talking about fighters or all pro athletes?
If you mean all pros then 1% is way off. For baseball/football it would be more like 20 for football alone & probably 30-40% for baseball.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t be serious, you think a third of all baseball players use tobacco?
by ufc4 on Feb 17, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely,
last year MLB released that around 30% of players used some sort of tobacco.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Working right now so
I do not have much time. It was an article in ESPN magazine.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s probably a fair statistic. Moises Alou’s tobacco use alone accounts for 10% because he goes through 3 cans a game. Lenny Dykstra’s retirement really cut down on Redman’s cut in the profits.
If you look over an entire MLB roster, there is at least 5-7 guys on an entire bench chewing tobacco, so it may be a tad less thatn 30%, but then you look at the bullpen, and half the guys out there are “chawing”.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Feb 17, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Currently, it may be a tad under
30% but definitely not much and has for sure gone down over the pasy 10 years or so.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which if they are announcing
that figure it actually would translate as more.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
30% percent even sounds low.
That's great, but how does it affect Lyoto Machida?
by beery_pbr on Feb 17, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For swedish hockey
I’m guessing maybe 95% of all players use tobacco. Comes down a little for football. For fighters it’ll probably be 50% or so.
by ununkvadrium on Feb 17, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most people think that tobacco
use if restricted to baseball players only, when in truth there are tons of pro athletes that do it.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he’s going to get absolutely steamrolled. I see Diego knocking him out in the first minute of contact. (after they dance around and size each other up)
by adamdd on Feb 17, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not that I think Stevenson will win,
but why would you pick Diegoy to win by KO? Diego is not known as a striker who finishes people & Joe Daddy is not known for being KO’d.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just feel like he’s gonna go out there and rock him, and get on top and GnP. I’m by nooooo means an expert… and a lot of it is talking out of my ass… I just have a feeling that’s what’s going to happen. Diego is a lean WW… at 155 he’s going to be HUGE. Joe is a pudgy 155… I think Diego will have harder hands as it pertains to the lw division.
by adamdd on Feb 17, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe's best bet
against Diego is that Diego is hanging out with Dan Quinn and sniffing birdshit.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not only does Stevenson have a chance, I think he’ll kick Diegos ass. Diego cuts more weight, not as good BJ as Stevenson, and Diego on a bad streak.
by mythbuster on Feb 17, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I cannot figure out
either one of these guys enough to really pick one. For now, I will give the nod to Stevia/birdshit sniffer.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If diego looks even remotely good… I am chugging down a shit load of stevia…. daily.
Ill even give myself an enema with it.
by mmalogic on Feb 17, 2009 2:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Can we get a toxx clause on this or someting? I’m gonna demand video proof of this happening.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Feb 17, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the weight cut doesn’t go well for Diego, Joe has a chance of pulling this out.
by MMAEruption on Feb 17, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think Luke hit the point on the head here. Stevenson just doesn’t have the tools to prevent an aggressive onslaught. His best trick up his sleeve is the guillotine, and it’s fairly certain that Stevenson will be looking for it, and Sanchez will be defending it.
The only way Diego dies in this fight is if he has a tough time cutting. He could gas out, and Stevenson could take advantage, but to be perfectly honest, Stevenson has never impressed me. He has some solid wins via the choke, but that’s about it. I think Diego’s onslaught is going to crush him convincingly.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Feb 17, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't disagree more.
Stevenson has lost to no one but the very cream of the 155 lbs. division in the past three years. He is on the tier beneath Penn and Florian, but even with everybody else there, including Tyson Griffin, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, etc. His striking has improved greatly, is underrated, and when you get a guy who’s not a world class striker, like BJ, or doesn’t have a distinct reach advantage, like Florian, Stevenson is going to hold his own.
Sanchez, meanwhile, has two wins in the past two years: Fiorvanti and Bielkheden. He has never looked the same since leaving Jackson’s. His training methodology and partners are questionable.
I don’t understand the love for Diego on this one. Stevenson has been fighting the best of the best and Diego has been fighting nobodys interspersed with months on months of inactivity.
Was shocked when I saw Diego the favorite, and continue to be shocked by people’s love for him.
Stevenson by 30-27 decision.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 17, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
For me,
it is more that Joe does not finish except by guillotine & not that Diego does either. But unless Diego gets gassed he is usually the busier fighter which is why I think he will pull out the decision. I think Sanchez is a wackadoo.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Diego doesn’t have a reach advantage like Florian had? Are you sure about that?
Diego knocked WWs silly in the standup, including guys like Fiorvanti and Riggs who both are seasoned strikers with good chins, and much better standup than Stevenson.
For the talk about Stevenson’s striking, we’ve never seen it be very impressive in a fight. Joe may be on the level of Griffin, Edgar, and Maynard, but he’s not shown it yet. He has no wins over guys at that level (the aforementioned, or guys like Guida, Tavares, Diaz, Danzig, Neer). His sub of Tibau was easily his best win, and it was a fight Joe was losing soundly until then.
Joe lacks the speed, TD ability, or standup to beat Diego unless Diego totally blows this weight cut.
by Hardcharger on Feb 17, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree that Diego's striking has improved,
but to actually say he knocks people silly is a little much. He caught a way overrated Riggs & at the same time got clocked himself, & beat a tubbo Fiorvanti who is just as overrated.
by dnevil001 on Feb 17, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Diego is 5'10", like Florian, but I do not believe he uses that height as effectively, no.
Which is surprising considering he sells himself as someone with traditional boxing skills. You’d think he’d be able to use the jab more effectively.
Also, Fiorvanti is highly overrated. I cannot believe it took him as long to get cut as it did.
Finally, a win over Pelligrino is as impressive as a win over Danzig and Neer, and more impressive than a win over Thiago Tavares.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 17, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So Diego does have as much reach as Florian?
Fiorvanti may be overrated, but he’s a legit sized WW that Diego beat up standing. Same for Joe Riggs. There’s much more evidence of Diego’s standup ability than their is for Stevenson.
I’ll give you the Pellegrino win, and it cancels out the loss Stevenson has to Neer.
by Hardcharger on Feb 17, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Firovanti is a legit-sized 170?
That tire he wears around his midsection must have been my imagination.
Loss to Neer was first half of 2006, nearly three years ago. It has as much bearing on assessing this fight as does Diego’s win against Florian in 2005. Namely: none. Too much has changed in the intervening time, most especially Diego’s camp change away from Jackson.
Surely we’ve all seen by now that having Greg Jackson in your corner, versus not, makes a difference.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 17, 2009 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If you like Stevenson, fine, but this is some revisionist history.
You may want to dismiss the Neer loss, but I won’t. And I won’t because what cost Stevenson much of the fight was his willingness to play guard as he killed time thinking his grappling would save him as a submission inevitabily came his way. He has repeated the mistake time and again, both against Penn and Florian. He does not control posture well and will play defensive guard for minute after minute after minute. Sometimes he can hang on for the win when he does that, but most times he can’t. When you factor in that Sanchez has excellent ground and pound as well as good guard passing, good wrestling, excellent base and a ferocious attacking style, there is PLENTY of reason to think stylistically Stevenson is in trouble.
Could the weight cut be a factor? Sure. Are Stevenson’s hands good enough to keep him in the game? Could be. Is his guillotine and leg locks dangerous? Of course. None of that addresses the severe stylistic problem Stevenson faces against Diego. And its a stylistic problem he’s carried around for quite some time.
by Luke Thomas on Feb 17, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If anyone at lightweight thinks they can out grapple Florian then they are kidding themselves. He is not flashy but very solid hips. He gives up take downs, but if he gets control on top then he does not give it up. That is what makes him great in my eyes. He is not a smothering top game like sherk, he will just hold positional control and pick away at you.
by szucconi on Feb 17, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BJ and Florian just outclassed and battered him on the feet.
By the times those fights even got to the ground he wasn’t playing defensive guard, he was hanging on for dear life.
I’m not even factoring in the weight cut for Diego. It’s a non-issue for me. If that drains him even more, that’s just another advantage Stevenson has.
I don’t “like” Stevenson, but I’m picking him against any UFC 155er not named Florian or Penn right now. Those guys are on another level. Diego, not.
Regardless, the great thing about MMA is all this prattle will come to nought in the end. They’ll fight on Saturday, the issue will be decided, and if Diego dominates stylistically I’ll be here Sunday and Monday to eat my humble pie.
But I don’t see it happening.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 17, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m picking him against any UFC 155er not named Florian or Penn right now
You’d pick him against Sherk?
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Feb 17, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Touche.
I stand corrected. But, like I said, I’ve got him even money against Tyson Griffin, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, et. al.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 17, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t figure out why Stevenson fights SO often and gets such HUGE fights and opponents. Why not mix it up a little bit. I suppose it’s great for the dude, but geez, BJ, Sanchez, and Florian all within about a year? His next fight will probably be Sherk.
Why not let Tyson or Edgar or even Fisher have some of these fights?
by Dooda on Feb 17, 2009 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tyson just fought Sherk. Edgar is fighting Sherk in his next bout. Fisher lost to Edgar in a largely uncompetitive fight.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 17, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And the rumor is that Fisher is fighting Uno in the not too distant future.
by Estrada on Feb 17, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. That, too.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 17, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is it just me or does joe stevenson always look like he’s about to cry in the middle of a fight?
& i shall hold it not a sin, to strike down mine enemies.
blessed be thy knee.
by rabt on Feb 17, 2009 10:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hope joe wins even though i belive Diago will win in easy fasion
by mma is #1 on Feb 17, 2009 10:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MMA Rankings
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
