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FightLines: Light Heavyweights Vol. IV

Lhwfebrurary_medium

 

Bonnar > Jardine > Griffin > Bonnar
Jardine > Liddell > W Silva > Jardine
Griffin > Jackson > Liddell > Ortiz > Griffin

FightLines: FAQ
FightLines: Light Heavyweights Vol. I
FightLines: Light Heavyweights Vol. II
FightLines: Light Heavyweights Vol. III

The power rankings need retooling, so they're MIA for this entry (and probably for awhile).  If anyone's interested in helping me work out some kinks, hit up my e-mail.  I want to punish guys like Eric Schafer who has a losing record against this pool of fighters (he's 1-2), but benefits immensely because of a fluke Houston Alexander victory over Keith Jardine

In absence of the power rankings, I tabulated strength of schedules.  You can find them here.  Only fights used for FightLines are included.  And don't use the sort function because I broke it.

As for the graph, the consensus triumverate of Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida, and Quinton Jackson graphically stake their claim to the the throne (in that order).  I don't mind the UFC giving Jackson the first title shot, but objectively I think having Machida/Evans makes more sense, especially with Quinton fighting Keith Jardine

Speaking of Jackson/Jardine, FightLines suggests it isn't the turd I first thought it was.  Jackson poses tons of problems for the chinny Jardine, but given how the division has played out, it's pretty defendable matchmaking. 

Outside of the UFC, I'd like to see Strikeforce or Affliction put on Renato Sobral/Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.  It gives Lil' Nog a chance to loop out his loss to Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou while arguably being the best matchup at 205 away from Zuffa's control. 

Even with his win over Stephan Bonnar, there's no one on the graph (that also has a UFC contract) I would put Jon Jones in against.  The Bonnar victory is huge, but he still needs seasoning before he gets thrown into the 205 shark tank.

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I don't know about that Jones call...

MMA can be so unbelievably flukey; with his size and speed I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones could ring a few bells in 205. Wasn’t he also a juco wrestler? If so then he already has a better skill set than Houston A.

Unless they show that old dogs can evolve, I would bet on him against Liddell or W. Silva. Yeah, I said it. Maybe I am being premature, but that is standard for me.

by Farthammer on Feb 16, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That’s kind of my mistake. I certainly wouldn’t mind him against Alexander, but Houston has a fight coming up I believe, and if he loses he’s all but gone.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I always found fightlines really interesting and was beginning to wonder where they went. It’s good that you brought it back.

One question: What governs the vertical assortment? Is there any significance to Griffin being at the same level as Sobral and Hoger being at the same level as Liddell, Bonnar, and Thiago Silva?

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Feb 16, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It’s just the way the software lays out the nodes (those being the boxes representing fighters). There’s very little significance.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks. That had me all sorts of confused.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Feb 16, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What program do you use? It looks like a spreadsheet.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Feb 16, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yEd Graph Editor.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I couldn't agree more.

Machida deserves the shot at the title first. Evans vs Machida should happen as soon as possible.

"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"

by Warhand on Feb 16, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nah

Machida needs to beat Griffin before earning a top shot IMO. He hasn’t even beaten a top ten guy since being in the UFC. It’s no fault of his who the UFC has him fight…it’s just the facts at the present time. I think Machida’s a GREAT fighter, but Jackson clearly deserves a title shot first IMO. I still think he won the fight against Forrest.

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Feb 16, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Machida’s total destruction of Thiago Silva is being down played a bit. Before that fight people were running around saying Thiago was next in line. Machida completely destroyed Silva. The fight that is wasting everyone’s time is Jackson vs Jardine. What would make sense is Jackson vs Machida, winner gets the shot.

"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"

by Warhand on Feb 16, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Before that fight people were running around saying Thiago was next in line.

Whoever said that was, and possibly is, crazy.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Feb 16, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Thiago Silva is a top ten fighter.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rampage has a much better claim to a title shot than Machida at this point in time.

Look at their last five fights. Rampage beat Eastman, Liddell, Hendo, and Wanderlei Silva and he lost a razor thin decision to Forrest. Machida beat Heath, Nakamura, Sokoudjou, Tito and Thiago Silva. Rampage wins on strength of schedule plus with the way the Forrest-Rampage fight went there should have been either an immediate rematch or Rampage needed to win one and then fight for the title again.

by ricker2005 on Feb 16, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The best outcome in my mind would have been Rampage/Forrest rematch and Machida/Evans for the title, but Forrest had to go and break something =P

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Feb 16, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Like I said, I have no qualms with a ’Page title shot.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Either one is fine with me

I thought Rampage should have gotten an immediate rematch, but if it wasn’t going to be him then Machida is the next best thing.

by Farthammer on Feb 16, 2009 3:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Flow Chart & "Bones"

Mr. Fagan:

Concerning the flowchart, what application was used, and what do the color distinctions represent? Maybe consider adding a legend for reference.

Having not known anything about “Bones” Jones, I approached the fight with Bonnar like a blind date… ’we’ll see how things go’.

Within seconds I had the epiphany that it was going to be a good fight because of Jones footwork, head movement and feints. Then, combination kicks — spinning back (missed) and side — right into Bonnar’s liver and made his right hand drop. Next, Jones times Bonnar’s jab with a grunting front kick, again to the liver. And then the clinch. Jones knees and then begins positioning on Bonnar, misses a foot sweep and immediately transitions to a double-to-single takedown. All in less than 60 seconds. Unfortunately, in one minute he dominated the warrior that Bonnar is in all aspects and elements of the sport. The balance of the 14-minute interchange was already apparent.

Jones is only 21, and one of the youngest pugilists on the Zuffa roster. He already demonstrates composure and octagon generalship, and his wrestling foundation was demonstrated.

With the aforementioned in mind, it seems that “Bones” should have a place on the flowchart with asterisks next to it… {** Jones ** (to be determined)}

by mmAss on Feb 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, nice job on the chart!

by mmAss on Feb 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones was impressive to say the least but he gassed out way to soon.

"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"

by Warhand on Feb 16, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones is only 21

The most impressive thing.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Feb 16, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I answered above, but in case you don’t see it I use yEd Graph Editor. The colors just help the readability. Green fighters are on the top of paths, blue on the bottom, and yellows are in the middle.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ways to break loops

Mike, here’s my best shot at ways to break loops and address logical flaws in the system. But first, I want to say: awesome job creating the concept (if you did) and putting the work in to get these things together.

1. If a pair of fighters are 2:1, supremacy goes to the fighter with more wins over his opponent. [Example: Sylvia beats Arlovski] I’m not sure if your system accounts for this already.

2. If the fighters are 1:1. the more recent victory takes precedence over the older win. [Example: GSP beats Serra]
(AND/OR )
3. The more decisive win beats the closer win. This introduces an element of subjectivity, but certain objective or near-objective measures may apply. For example, a stoppage is more decisive than a decision win, and a unanimous decision supercedes a split decision. Also, undisputed wins beat controversial wins (dude to say, referee error, weird cut or doc stoppage or other mitigating factor). Other reasonable subjective measures may apply [Example: Liddell and Henderson have both defeated W.Silva, but Henderson’s win was more decisive, therefore he beats Liddell]

by klown on Feb 16, 2009 10:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I didn’t create the concept unfortunately. I lifted in from Beatpaths.com who I believe lifted it from someone else.

1. This already applies.

2 and 3. Both interesting concepts that I’ll play around with. I’m not sure if they’ll have any affect on the situation I’m trying to deal with (Schafer being one and two, but benefiting from someone else’s garbage win).

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's see how it plays out

Bonnar > Jardine > Griffin > Bonnar

Griffin-Bonnar took place in 2005, so we drop it (3-year rule)

That leaves Bonnar > Jardine > Griffin. Ironically, introducing more recent fights flip that order on its head.

Jardine > Liddell > W Silva > Jardine

The fights in chronological order:: Jardine vs Liddell, Liddell vs Silva, Silva vs Jardine. Knock out the oldest fight and you end up with Liddell > Silva > Jardine

Griffin > Jackson > Liddell > Ortiz > Griffin

The oldest fight is Ortiz-Griffin. Drop it, and you get Griffin>Jackson>Liddell>Ortiz

by klown on Feb 16, 2009 10:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ah, I was still in the mindset of single fights, not loops.

I’m not really a fan of just dropping the oldest fight from a loop, but I’ll play around with it.

I wonder if there’s a way we could weight method and age of a fight and implement that. I’ll toss that around too.

by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In the cases above, or actually just for the second and third loops discussed above, dropping the oldest fight gives a result that jibes with most “subjective” rankings out there. It even meshes with the decisiveness test…

Jardine’s split decision win over Liddell is the least significant of the fights in that loop, while Silva’s knockout of Jardine is the most significant, so it makes sense to place Jardine at the bottom of that totem pole, since his win is least decisive and his loss is most decisive.

Ortiz-Griffin and Griffin-Jackson were close, disputed split decisions. In contrast, Jackson holds two stoppages over Liddell, and Liddell holds two stoppages over Ortiz. So there is an undeniable line of Jackson>Liddell>Ortiz, and the question is whether to place Griffin at the top or bottom of this chain. Since his win over Jackson is so much more recent than Ortiz’s over Griffin, it’s only fair to privilege that and place Griffin on top.

If the justification for Griffin’s rank seems flimsy, that’s because it truly is, in (subjective) reality. Griffin’s wins over Jackson and Rua could be explained respectively as a fluke and a win over an overrated fighter. He might not last long at the top of this pile. Luckily rankings are self-correcting given time.

So you get Griffin>Jackson>Liddell>Ortiz, which seems right – for now.

In some cases, dropping the oldest fight would be a travesty. For example, if the fights happened really close together it would be less justifiable to drop the older one, but if the fights took place a long time apart, it makes the sense that the old result is less relevant today. For another example, if the older fight was decisive, but the recent one was a close call, it might make sense to privilege the decisiveness factor over the time factor.

Aside from time and decisiveness, what other factors can people think of to break the loops?

by klown on Feb 16, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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