Bloody Elbow February MMA Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
| Fighter | % | Promotion | Last Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Georges St. Pierre | 100 | UFC | 1 |
| 2. Thiago Alves | 95 |
UFC |
2 |
| 3. Jon Fitch | 92 |
UFC | 3 |
| 4. Josh Koscheck | 86 |
UFC |
4 |
| 5. Jake Shields | 84 |
Limbo |
5 |
| 6. Carlos Condit | 72 |
UFC |
8 |
| 7. Diego Sanchez | 72 |
UFC |
6 |
| 8. Matt Hughes | 72 |
UFC |
7 |
| 9. Karo Parisyan | 58 |
UFC |
10 |
| 10. Matt Serra | 50 |
UFC | 9 |
| 11. Mike Swick | 40 |
UFC |
11 |
| 12. Jay Hieron | 27 |
Affliction | 16 |
| 13. Marcus Davis | 27 |
UFC |
13 |
| 14. Nick Thompson | 24 |
Madtown |
12 |
| 15. Dustin Hazelett | 24 |
UFC | 14 |
| 16. Brock Larson | 24 |
UFC |
15 |
| 17. Dan Hardy | 19 |
UFC | 18 |
| 18. Brad Blackburn | 16 |
UFC | 23 |
| 19. Nick Diaz | 15 |
Strikeforce |
20 |
| 20. Hayato Sakurai | 15 |
K-1 |
21 |
| 21. Chris Lytle | 14 |
UFC |
19 |
| 22. Anthony Johnson | 14 |
UFC | 24 |
| 23. Mike Pyle | 13 |
SuperFights |
26 |
| 24. Paul Daley | 13 |
MaximumFC |
28 |
| 25. Akihiro Gono | 12 |
UFC |
25 |
| 25. Frank Trigg | 12 |
Strikeforce |
28 |
Commentary by Kid Nate: Now that #1 Georges St Pierre has definitively rebuffed the challenge of #1 lightweight B.J. Penn, or did he really....ok ok we'll leave greasegate out of this.
#2 Thiago Alves will get his shot at the crown at UFC 100 in July. The AKA boys -- #3 Jon Fitch, #4 Josh Koscheck and #11 Mike Swick -- are all circling, looking for their shots.
Of the three, Koscheck would seem to be the closest to a title shot. If he beats the virtually unknown Paulo Thiago this saturday at UFC 95, he'll likely fight again at UFC 98 against a top contender. It was going to be #9 Karo Parisyan but after Karo's drug test failure at UFC 94, that doesn't seem likely.
Swick is out with a foot injury that will keep him from fighting again until late spring or early summer. No word on what's next for Jon Fitch after disposing of #25 Akihiro Gono at UFC 94.
#5 Jake Shields is rumored to be willing to fight for Strikeforce and forgo moving to the UFC for the time being. This leaves WEC champ #6 Carlos Condit as virtually the only fresh potential challenger for GSP. Condit will possibly be facing former middleweight Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut and the winner should be fast-tracked into contention.
#7 Diego Sanchez is making his lightweight debut at UFC 95. I expect it will take a few months for the sources we use to compile the Metas to reflect that change. Nothing jacks with the meta rankings like fighters changing weight classes.
NOTE: The Meta-Rankings are not the subjective opinion of the BloodyElbow team, but rather a compilation of the rankings of over twenty leading MMA web sites. It is our opinion that these are the most informative MMA rankings anywhere.
Based on the premise that opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and they all stink. instead of putting up our own subjective fighter rankings, we compile and average the rankings of every source we could find online.
The goal is to show how the MMA community rates the fighters, not to bore you with our opinions.
Be sure and look at the percentage of possible points, they're a much more telling number than the ranking. There's clearly a huge gulf between the top 9 fighters and those that follow.
A total of 49 fighters were ranked in the top 25 by one source or another, for reasons of sanity I only track the top 25 most highly rated fighters.
25 points are awarded for a first place ranking, 16 for a 10th place ranking, 1 for a 25th place ranking. A formula is used to "normalize" the data so all fighters are awarded points from those lists that do not include a full 25 fighters. Fuller explanation below.
Rankings were compiled from the following 17 sites: 411 Mania, Fight Magazine, Fight Matrix , Five Ounces of Pain, Inside MMA, MMA 4 Real, MMA ELO, MMA Fighting, MMA Playground, MMA Rocks, MMA Weekly, Sherdog, TAGG Radio, Total MMA, WAMMA.
The normalization scheme as explained by JCS of FightMatrix is here:
The "normalization number" (new name) would be:
120
divided by
(Total Fighters Found in Any List minus 10)Every fighter found somewhere else, but on a Top 10 list would be assigned this number.
The "normalization" number would not apply to a fighter not found on a Top 25 list. They would simply get 0.
So the process would be:
Do all of the Top 25 lists first, #1 = 25, #2 = 24…. #24 = 2, #25 = 1
Do all of the Top 10 lists, same scoring structure.. stops at #10 = 16Figure out that normalization variable.
Fill in the normalization variable to all fighters not found in the Top 10 lists, but found elsewhere.
Do your totals and rank.
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29 comments
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Comments
By the end of 2009, Anthony Johnson will have cracked the top ten and he’ll be getting a title shot in 2010.
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill
by FlyByKnight on Feb 16, 2009 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
He is a beast and hes only gonna get better. Pretty scarry. :)
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 16, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he may have climbed up the list a little more than he already has.
Dana and Co. need to start scheduling him against higher ranked fighters to see where he truly stands right now.
by Evil-Uncle on Feb 16, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, he needs as much ring time as he can get before he starts moving up in competition.
by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s a double-edged sword. Johnson looks dominant and has been overly-elevated in the minds of many because he’s frequently seen destroying his opponents. But he only looks that good because he hasn’t been thrown in against a Kos or a Fitch yet. Johnson is still REALLY young, and I like that they realize that he has serious potential and are doing everything to build that potential. And it’s not like he’s fighting stiffs – he’s fighting guys with wins in the UFC. They just aren’t giving him guys yet who are winning constantly and dominating.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Feb 16, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think he’s ready for Kos or Fitch, but someone in the 10-20 range would be a fight I would really anticipate.
by Evil-Uncle on Feb 16, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure how Alves gets ranked ahead of Fitch?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Feb 16, 2009 1:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
When a fighter has a title shot coming up, they definitely get a boost. Also since his loss to Fitch, Alves has been very impressive, finishing top 10 fighters Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
by Kid Nate on Feb 16, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fitch just loss lol
alves has beaten 3 top ten fighters in a row
and before you say “fitch beat alves”… that was over 2 years ago
by dbcb on Feb 16, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone think Alves will take GSP to a decision?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Feb 16, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just want them to sign contracts and start the hype! :)
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 16, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Alves'
takedown defense is on that night its gonna be a hell of a fight and he definately has a good chance for a knockout.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Feb 16, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure if this is what you’re implying, but whether or not Alves can or will take GSP to a decision has no influence on how he should be ranked compared to Fitch.
by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m implying that Fitch is better than Alves. Therefore he should be ranked higher IMHO.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter much. But my opinion is that Fitch is the superior fighter.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Feb 16, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s not how rankings work, though. It’s not a subjective list of who the best is. It’s an objective look at their accomplishments over a determined period of time. When Matt Serra beat GSP and vaulted to number one on most rankings, he wasn’t the best fighter at 170 and I think even Serra would agree with that.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for keeping Fitch at #2 and I think there are plenty of arguments for that. I would have a really hard time separating Fitch and Alves, to be honest. But just saying “I think he’s a better fighter” doesn’t cut it.
by Mike Fagan on Feb 16, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Condit vs Kampman
I love the prospect of this fight. I am leaning toward Kampman but what an awesome fight it could be.
"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"
by Warhand on Feb 16, 2009 1:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Serra at 10 makes me worried about how dumb people are.
by Discman2 on Feb 16, 2009 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only one who thinks Josh Koscheck has a good chance against GSP?
by BadB on Feb 16, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Given Kos’s wrestling background and improved striking, No you are not alone. I think GSP is a lot faster though.
"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"
by Warhand on Feb 16, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Until Kos starts watching film and gameplanning, rather than trying to just go in and do “his thing”, he’ll get smoked by St. Pierre every time. That’s not to say that he can’t win, but Kos needs to watch film and develop an actual strategy or the master strategist is at an almost impossible advantage.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Feb 16, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now that #1 Georges St Pierre has definitively rebuffed the challenge of #1 lightweight B.J. Penn, or did he really….ok ok we’ll leave greasegate out of this.
Something I felt got overlooked in their fight was just how bad Penn looked. GSP’s greasing would not have caused Penn to look sluggish, or remove his punches of any snap, or drain his cardio. I’m not trying to dismiss GSP’s performance, but Penn didn’t do anything to help himself.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by themachiavellian on Feb 16, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't see anybody on that list
who can challenge, let alone beat, GSP.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Feb 16, 2009 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What is the UFC going to do with the AKA guys next?
Kos vs. who? What makes a good fight for the #4 WW, and a guy that could challenge for a title shot fairly soon?
Fitch – who can they match him up in a meaningful fight for a guy who has only lost in the UFC to GSP? Fights like those against Gono don’t do anything for Fitch.
Swick? – probably the easiest to find a fight for, given the situations with the above 2 AKA guys.
Who does the UFC plan to have fight GSP/Alves after July? Is there a clear next contender for the title? Right now, it’s hard to see who that would be.
by Hardcharger on Feb 16, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Alves wins, the UFC has all 3 AKA guys that could potentially step up immediately (assuming that none lost their fight immediately prior)—the only problem would be picking which was most “deserving” of a title shot.
But if GSP wins, they may be thinking about a potential super fight with Silva. That’s not to say that this fight will happen, but rather that pushing someone to the front of the pack as the next hypothetical contender is easier to do than to remove said contender from the title picture. Basically, I think the UFC is going to wait and see if GSP can dominate Alves and if he does see if both Georges and Anderson are game for a superfight.
by Estrada on Feb 16, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with pretty much everything you posted.
If Alves wins, IMO Fitch is the best 1st defense for Alves. But in the meantime, who does Fitch fight? He needs a real, quality opponent. Kampman/Condit winner, perhaps? Serra/Hughes winner is too far away to have that guy face Fitch.
Taking Shields out of this equation since he isn’t signed, and assuming GSP wins, I also see a pretty big need in making high quality fights for the AKA guys in their next matchup as well as grooming a clear “next in line for GSP”.
If Marquardt beats Gouveia, he is going to be fairly close to another MW title shot. GSP has said he’s open to that, but he won’t take that fight away from Nate. This is another reason why I hope the UFC is getting ready to establish the next challenge for GSP (again, assuming he wins at UFC 100)
by Hardcharger on Feb 16, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish kampmann was in the top 25. Deserves it in my humble estimation. A win over Carlos will take care of that and then some, but it ain’t going to be easy.
by MattTil on Feb 17, 2009 1:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He might have made it were some sites not still listing him at MW.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Feb 17, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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