The Myth of the Surprisingly Great Show
by Michael Rome on Dec 31, 2009 4:00 PM EST
in MMA News
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Dana White keeps saying that every time people say a show is going to suck, it ends up surprising people and being one of the best shows of the year. In reality, the shows people expect to be terrible end up being every bit as bad as expected. A short look at unanticipated cards over the last few years makes this very clear.
UFC 72: This show was bashed in advance given its dreadful Rich Franklin vs. Yushin Okami main event. The card was a complete bomb, and the main event was one of the worst in recent UFC history.
UFC 78: Another tepid and boring show with a main event unworthy of PPV. There were boring decisions on the undercard, and then the main event was so unsatisfying that a crowd of people that paid hundreds of dollars each to see the show was left booing loudly as it went off the air.
UFC 80: This was one of the shows where the card delivered more than expected. There were a number of exciting finishes, and Penn put on quite a show in the main event. Still, the reason it was so popular was the series of quick finishes and outright brutal KO's.
UFC 85: This was another cursed show, a show that started off with a planned Chuck Liddell vs. Shogun main event and eventually was headlined by Matt Hughes vs. Thiago Alves. The fights were a mix of good and bad, it was hardly a show of the year contender given the horrendously boring Swick-Davis fight.
UFC 90: The card was slammed for its horrible main event in advance, and then the main event was worse than anyone expected. This was not a good show, they came into a big new market and were booed out of the arena.
Looking at the UFC 108 card, there is potential for a few stylistically exciting fights, but it is hardly barnburner material. History indicates that dreaded cards tend to live down to expectations rather than vice versa.
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Dana admitted a lot of mistakes after 72. They rushed back to the UK after 70. It was not a good show and it was a PPV after Crocop v. Gonzaga was free.
Chris Lytle was the highlight of 78. That says it all. I was in NJ for that one and the undercard had some great fights, but no one is buying the PPV for the undercard.
Some people think I am a dumb, ugly human being, but really I am a beautiful ape, with exceptional verbal skills.
is there gonna a be an article on how dana is wrong everyday? it’s starting to scare me..
by cagefightonacid on Dec 31, 2009 4:13 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
He is wrong a lot, but most of it is due to promoting. Is he ever going to say “this card sucks, it should be way better if I expect people to buy it for $50.”
Some people think I am a dumb, ugly human being, but really I am a beautiful ape, with exceptional verbal skills.
should’ve been “wrong, everyday” i’m just getting sick of all the articles about how shitty he is or how he called some reporter a ‘bad word’, as if none of us use that language. i think one "dana is a wrong’’ article a week is enough
by cagefightonacid on Dec 31, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
not sure if i like the idea of a quota on opinions
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Dec 31, 2009 9:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
the same opinion regurgitated 10 times in 3 days…. yeah, i’m ready for that kind of quota
by cagefightonacid on Jan 1, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
i think this card is getting an undeserved amount of crap
by cagefightonacid on Dec 31, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
UFC 89 was a poor card as well. Bisping vs. Leben even for a free show was one of the worst headlining ideas ever
UFC 91 didn’t have a strong card outside of LESNAR/Couture but every fight made it on air. It was that entertaining.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
If you are going to start criticizing free on air events (regardless of whether they are numbered or not), then you also have to include some of the wildly successful UFN’s that were shit upon before they happened. Fight for the Troops comes to mind.
I rarely criticize free cards
But 89 in particular was unbearable. The crowd sucked and there were no “great fights” per se.
UFN: Florian vs. Lauzon wasn’t too hot but it was a great card which featured an 8 second knockout and 6 fights on the main card.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
I actually liked UFC 90 outside of the main event
As for 108 I think too many people judge a card before it happens. Does it lack star power? Yes. Does that mean it’s gaurenteed to suck? No.
I hate the people that guarentee its gonna suck just by the lack of star power. It will either be great, ok, or bad but we dont know until it happens.
As for everybody complaining I have 1 solution. DONT ORDER IT. If you think a card sucks and/or want to spend 50-60$ on something else than dont order it.
I hate having to come on to any mma website and listen to how bad a card is gonna be before it happens and if I say I’m gonna wait to judge the card or that it doesnt look horrible to me “I’m Brainwashed by Zuffa” or “I’m a UFC nuthugger”.
It looks like it could be entertaining.
My point with the card being bad is purely from a PPV buy perspective.
I think it will be completely watchable and may even be a very fun watch. But it’s going to do very bad numbers.
That being said. We’re not going to talk about every event positively. Mike thinks the show is bad and is going to bomb. He’s allowed to say that, just like how we’ve expressed excitement over many UFC cards in the past.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Dec 31, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
True
but I dont feel bad for the people that say the card sucks before hand and still order it and then bitch about how they got ripped off.
If you have been watching mma for any real length of time you should know by now that the UFC is really a hit and miss situation. Most UFC cards I watch are either excitng and awesome or suck balls.I’m used to it but I still choose to order every event because I like mma and 60$ to me is not a lot of money.
I personally think this card has a lot more going for it than 109 but yeah when you compare it to a 106 or 111 yes it looks extremely weak. But I think part of that goes to Rampage dropping out and Evans/Silva not having the same star power as Evans/Jackson. I think you could do the same card with Rampage/Evans as the main event and people would be excited for it.
But it’s going to do very bad numbers.
I dunno.
I think people regularly underestimate Rashad’s drawing power. This card isn’t nearly as bad as UFC 78 on paper, and Rashad managed to pull in 400K+ with that pig in lipstick, back when 400K wasn’t all that common. Sure, the Machida loss might hurt his drawing power some, but I think there is a distinct possibility that will be more than offset by by an influx of Kimbo noobs who grew attached to Rashad during TUF 10.
I won’t be surprised if this card also tops 400K. Of course, on the flip side, I also won’t be surprised if it barely scrapes past 300K. This card is not only a great litmus test for the power of the UFC brand, but also for the power of the post-TUF 10 Rashad Evans brand.
If around 10 mil in gross profit is dreadful then Megan Fox buck naked is dreadful. (And Im using Mike’s own buy prediction for this figure.)
Yep, that’s how much Zuffa brings in on a “dreadful night”.
And to all those: “but, these kinds of cards will hurt future buys”…. Look at how many cards Mike just listed that were “terrible” and then look at the ppv buy trend continue to increase til present date.
It’s simple, if you dont have the money to buy every card, get some friends. If you cant get friends buy a book on how to get friends. If you cant read then you go to a buffalo bills and order a tap water with no ice.
A card like this will bring in over 10 mil whereas ABC wanted to pay 5 for a card like UFC 107. There’s NBA money (7.5 mil plus per show) right around the corner for Zuffa.
If around 10 mil in gross profit is dreadful then Megan Fox buck naked is dreadful. (And Im using Mike’s own buy prediction for this figure.)
Gross revenue, not gross profit.
OK I’m not going to nitpick by he said it was going to “bomb” not be “dreadful”. And 300.000 buys is a bomb for Zuffa. So Zuffa should actually be happy, if that what a “bomb” is for them.
And here is a thought: if the UFC had a tv deal what are they going to do with cards like 108? Seriously. They couldn’t put it on the air because the rating would be awful, which means they would have to put it on ppv. But how pissed would fans be if they got a show like 107 on ABC for free and then had to pay for 108? Nevermind the loss Zuffa would be taking putting 107 on Network TV in the first place. Getting on ABC or Fox is not without its risks for Zuffa.
Well if you’re not gonna nitpick, I am… Read the post I was responding to. Brookhouse said “dreadful”
UFC 108 is an anomaly because the card that we have wasnt the one that was planned… you mean a card like UFC 103 (similar in quality to 108 but 103 was actually planned that way). 103 type cards will be on the basic cable outlet portion of the deal.
as far as the Math… you’re talking about 3 Network shows a year… with the rest on the networks basic cable outlet.
There isn’t a loss… the increase in syndication will more than make up for any short term “loss”. (Boxing ppv’s would be paltry compared to what it is if it was never on network TV)
The 18 to 34 year olds will eventually be 18 to 45 and then instead of NBA money we’ll be talking more closer to NFL money.
Once the spike deal is renegotiated next year and Zuffa is logistically capable to fulfill the shows there will be 3 players vying for the UFC:
ABC and ESPN
NBC and NBC SPORTS
FOX and FX
Least likely will be fox and most likely will be ABC and NBC seriously bidding on it.
Actually, Brookhouse said “bomb”, unless you were responding to a posting on another story.
And I am also confused by your statement about boxing, since its been off network tv since the 70’s.
Anyways, what could a show like 103 or 99 draw on network TV? 7 or 8 mil maybe? Maybe a little more? Or do you actually think they would do better? I mean not one time but consistently. So you’re looking at the top rated show on Saturday nights, and maybe $150,000 price for a 30 sec ad buy, if they consistently draw those numbers. So a $5 mill air fee sounds about right. Now compare that to the $9 mil they make off of a 350,000 ppv buyrate.
Now, I agree with you in the long run it’s good for Zuffa and good for the sport, I’m just saying there are some risks to putting their big cards on TV. If the ratings don’t come, be it for whatever reason (maybe they run into two 108s worth of injuries), Zuffa could be looking at $20+ million in loss revenue off the 3-shows, and an unfair hit to their brand’s reputation by Madison Ave. Of course if they threw their biggest stars onto TV then there is not only the loss of ppv revenue that entails, but thay risk that the viewers will come to expect such big shows regularly doesn’t it? And If it’s only for a one time push in ratings, I don’t see it working. No one is going to look at a Brock card and say “hey, the UFC drew 18 million viewers I bet every card will draw the same.”
So if you’re talking a $7 + rights fee you have to be talking about 10 million viewers 18-34 male viewers a show. I don’t see that happening unless they put 107 level cards on every time and then we are back were they are talking a big hit now for benefits a couple of years down the road. Shit, the dilemma.
Wow, this has turned into a long post and I’ve run out of time without I even getting into the thick of my main argument. Sorry about that. Anyways, have a good night, sir, and be safe. I’ll talk to you in the new year.
i think people are knocking UFC 108’s main event a little too hard. It’s weak for a PPV headliner, sure, but it’s still an exciting matchup and a better headliner than (IMO) 105, 106, and 109.
Anyway, with due respect, I can’t see the point of this article. Yes Dana is saying its going to be a great night of fights. No, he can’t know that sure. But he’s the promoter.
Wait ’till the fights end, then do a post-mortem….
by TLow on Dec 31, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Its a remarkably weak End of Year card. People might not complain as much if this were in november and a series of mains that had been planed fell apart.
Some people think I am a dumb, ugly human being, but really I am a beautiful ape, with exceptional verbal skills.
Bu you have to remember all that fell apart
Could have be main events for 108:
Lesnar vs. Carwin
Silva vs. Belfort
Machida vs. Shogun 2
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez (if Rampage vs. Rashad had happened at 107)
so yeah considering what they had I think they did ok. Yes 108 and 109 look weak but I think 110 it begans to pick back up and 111 is beginning to be stacked.
UFC 99 was not that good outside of the main event and Davis/Hardy.
At least in my opinion.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
I think 108 will kick ass:
1 Yvel, Dos Santos, Dales and Silva are all slightly unhinged KO machines.
2 McLovin is a submission whiz.
3 Rashaaaaad will probably insult Rampage in some way after he wins.
Keep firing Assholes!
Editor of www.downsyndromematuremidgetsheltlandponyporn.com/
by Ubernoober on Dec 31, 2009 4:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
It’s interesting that none of the shows mentioned were recent ones, where IMO Dana’s claim is a lot more accurate. 105 lacked star power except for the main event, which was the weakest fight on what turned out to be a very good card. 106 was arguably similar.
108 lacks star power but mma enthusiasts can recognize that there are some potentially awesome fights on the card, who knows, it could launch someone who is currently great but unknown into being a true star.
by brad23 on Dec 31, 2009 4:22 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
When I got into the fight cards in the hundreds I noticed a trend, people complain about almost every card.
by Chris Barton on Dec 31, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It just feels like this card needs one more big fight.
A couple of interesting matchups…but if they had combined the 108-109 cards into one it would be very good.
72 – Had one of the fights of the year on it (Guida/Griffin). Franklin/Okami might not have been to everyones taste but Yushin came SOOO close to finishing Rich it was a good fight IMO.
76 – Not on your list but I am adding it as a “hyped” card that didn’t deliver short of the huge Shogun/Griffin upset.
78 – The main event fight wasn’t “worthy” but it was a good fight. The fans were wooing the “bad” decision. The card only had two decisions on it and had some pretty memorable KOs (Herman/Dorkson)
80 – We totally agree
85 – I agree mostly but I don’t like the spin at the end. It wasn’t supposed to be “card of the year” but it DEFINITELY over achieved in what was expected, which was the point. Every fight was fun, short of Swick/Davis.
86 – People hated on this card (TUFFER vs Rampage blarg!), but it’s not on your list. Oddly, I thought the card was tepid EXCEPT the main event (which I thought Quintin would crush Forrest). The card held up because that fight was a FotY candidate.
88- Also hated on, but not on your list. No title implications, Chuck being washed up (which ended up being incorrect), strange match making. Ended up being a pretty great card overall.
89 – Pretty much “sucked” (I have a hard time not liking a card) but at least we didn’t pay for it.
90 – I thought this card was really good and competitive until the main event. Unfortunately the main event is what carries the most weight. I think it was better than expected, but the Cote thing was brutally awful. People didn’t boo the show, they booed having the main fight end to ninja mind trickery.
93 – People didn’t like this card either. Complaints about the main event fighting weight making it “meaningless” and that nobody cared about that fight anymore. Shogun getting a “can”. It ended up being a decent card. Still, not a super good one.
94 – One of the most hyped cards they ever did. It freaking blew. Stupid scandals, tons of wonky decisions. Fitch turtle humping Gono for 15 mins (I’m bitter).
95 – Nobody really cared about this card and thought the main event was weak. Ended up being an amazing card.
96 – People bitched about Jardine being in another main event, but I don’t think it was hated on as much as some of these others. Good fight card.
97 – Card was HATED on. Pissed of Leites got a title shot. People were mostly right about this card.
So I went into this expecting to disagree more with the premise. I thought I would find some cards people didn’t like that ended up being great that you forgot to list. That didn’t really happen, though. Well done!
add the following to your list
102 – coming off huge success’ of 100 and 101, 102 look very poor because you had a main event of 2 guys coming off loses and a co-main event of 2 guys coming off loses but turned out to be a pretty decent card
103 – Main event was terrible in most people’s eyes and when Swick got injured hurt the card even more. Turned out to be a decent card with good showings by Dos Santos, T. Griifin, Escudero, Koscheck, Belfort, Daley.
104 – Most people thought Shogun had no place fighting for the title after beating “washed up” Coleman and Liddell but he proved them wrong and the fact that Carwin-Velazquez got scrapped for Velazquez-Rothwell. Pretty weak card outside of FOTY Machida/Shogun.
106 – Griffin/Ortiz main event. Griffin coming off 2 losses and Ortiz a draw and a loss and not fighting in a year and half. Turned out better than most expected but still not a great card.
You can't really predict the PPV.
PPV buys
102: 435,000
103: 375,000
104: 500,000
106: 375,000
by snakecharmer1340 on Dec 31, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
I couldn't disagree more
Riley/Pearson was lopsided but entertaining.
The two prelims shown featured awesome knockouts and Bisping/Kang was a very good fight.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
Give me a summary of the card.
Mike this article would have been a lot better with a bit of summary for the fights on each card…Sorry if my MMA credentials are a bit off, but I can’t just off the top of my head remember who was on all these cards.
I can obviously find the info
I’m just giving some hopefully useful feedback to write a better article so that everyone who doesn’t know these by heart doesn’t have to search for the info.
This post doesn’t come close to covering the list of UFC PPVs people slagged. And even on this list, there are a few cards that were good cards.
Dana isn’t wrong in his statement, other than making universal statements like “every time”, when “most times” would be more appropriate.
by Hardcharger on Dec 31, 2009 5:21 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Yea but apparently Dana can no longer get close to entering the realm of promotional hyperbole talk without someone dissecting it and writing something negative about it.
Just BE.
by mattman73 on Dec 31, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
UFC 70 was awful outside of Bisping/Elvis and Cro-Cop/Gonzaga
It was a pretty decent card for name recognition but as a PPV card (for the rest of the world…I think this was a Spike event) it was boring.
Machida/Heath was boring, as was Kongo/Silva, and of course the epic war of crap between Arlovski and Werdum.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
as a PPV card (for the rest of the world
Huh?
Since when does the rest of the world pay for UFC events?
Sure there is the occasional international PPV buy here and there, but for the most part internation UFC fans don’t pay for UFC events.
the forrest upset definitely satisfied me, and i didn’t even notice that there weren’t any KO’s until i got home and read about it…
by cagefightonacid on Dec 31, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Liddell/Jardine was a pretty good fight.
But considering what they named the event I found that hilarious.
Lyoto Machida fought a guy who tested positive for marijuana.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
i was bummed but i’m a big liddell fan and i don’t like jardine….. in all fairness, you’re right
by cagefightonacid on Dec 31, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
UFC 72 wasn’t a great card, but at the same time, there were still a lot of pretty big UFC fighters on it, Griffin, Franklin and Okami. It was pretty significant though because it was in Northern Ireland and at the time I never thought in a million years the UFC would ever come to Belfast, the only other big MMA show that had ever taken place before was Cage Rage. I doubt there are many places the UFC has been that has such a low-level local MMA scene, so despite being poor on paper, it was a really big deal in Northern Ireland
Speaking of great shows
I’m watching Huerta/Guida on Spike. Holy crap was that a war.
FIRE JIM MORA NOW!
Rashad is not a draw? Really
PPV
UFC 98: Evans vs. Machida 635,000 PPV buys
UFC 92: Evans vs. Griffin 1,050,000 PPV buys
UFC 88: Evans vs. Liddell 480,000 PPV buys
TUF 10 was the highest rated season yet. He won a lot of people over.
TUF 2 winner.
New Years weekend: People are going to party tonight and tomorrow. Saturday they’ll be for something to do.
by snakecharmer1340 on Dec 31, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions
If this ppv
even sniffs 500,000 i’ll go run a lap around the block in some shorts. I live in the NYC area and we’ve got snow yet again.
http://mixedmartialartsblogger.wordpress.com/
by Cory Braiterman on Dec 31, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
Well Micheal Rome obviously is not a Dana White fan. So fighter bashing is banned in the forums but blatant UFC bashing is OK for the frontpage? C’mon now.
Has UFC had some shit cards? Yes. Has UFC had some epic cards? Yep. And they don’t directly correlate with the perceived quality of the card beforehand. Fact is, every single UFC since 100 has been hailed as a shitfest without a worthy headlining fight, and none of them have been bad. It seems like every event since 100 has been met with “UGH UFC PUTS ON TOO MANY SHOWS NOT GONNA BUY IT” and they keep selling tons of PPVs.
So either people are acting like internet tough guys and buying the fights anyways, or they never intended to buy it and downloaded it the next day like they always do. But plenty of “weak” cards turn out to be a blast, perfect example is Ortiz-Griffin in November.
And to second what someone up there said, how about listing the specifics of the events and why you didn’t like them instead of rattling off a bunch of event numbers and making us google around to see wtf you might be talking about.
I generally like BE, but this just reeks of a halfhearted attempt to get some action on the front page.
Imagine a story about how all these fighters getting injured from top to bottom and still being able to produce a card like this… which isn’t stellar but this capability is unheard of in major event planning.
This card isnt any worse than UFC 103 which was also a ppv… but nobody seemed to be crying about that. That was actually a “planned” card with no injuries (except one on the undercard)… so if anything that’s the card people should have tearing down on the front page (which ended up being a great card) .
Blah Blah Blah
Real fight fans watch all the fights. Kind of sick of hearing all this Dana White/UFC 108 bashing just so that there is something to put on a website…
I’m excited for this card. The main card fights look good to me. I know that it’s crazy that there’s been so many injuries but the fact that I still want to watch this card speaks of just how good the UFC is.
by Lunchbox15 on Dec 31, 2009 7:49 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Maybe the UFC should only put on 4-5 cards a year. The fans will have nothing to do, the fighters will be broke and we can all go watch figure skating.
If they decide to only put on a couple a year we can bitch about how crappy a promoter they are. This shit is getting old. If you don’t like the cards, dont fucking buy them. Very simple.
People on this site claim to be MMA fans but I call bullshit. You can take any promotion and rip apart cards and fights. The reason they fight is because we dont know the outcome. Sometimes this is good, sometimes this is bad.
If paying $45 for a night of fights is too much, maybe you should hang out at Hooters. If paying $45 every 2 weeks to help support MMA is too much, go watch NBA instead. If paying $45 is too much because your broke, go to Hooters. If paying $45 is too much because hating DW and the UFC is now politically correct, you are by no means an MMA fan.
I want to watch MMA fights and fighters as often as possible. I could give a rats ass under what promotion. I am willing to sit through a 3 hour card for 1 good 10 minute fight. Why? Because I like the fights and respect the fighters.
by Riney on Dec 31, 2009 9:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good post Riney
I agree with you fully. I love MMA and just love to watch as much of it as I can. Period. I feel lucky that there is so much of it to watch.
It really has gotten embarrasing this place is starting to become Sherdog Jr. with all the blatant hate and bias writers have against the UFC. It’s a shame too, when I first used to check this place it what drew me to it was that it was pretty even handed but now it’s gotten pathetic the ammount hate coming from people here towards Dana and company.
60 bucks is a lot of money for some people
And even if you gather 4 friends it’s still an expense . Bottom line you can catch the fights on a stream or a day after anywhere on the internet. I don’t think this is worth the money , the fighters and the stories is 50% of the sport . Without the fighters and the pre fight hype and excitement you end up with “just mma” , like M-1 or Cage Rage , which can be very fun to watch , but not 60 bucks fun (again , for “most” fans ) . Of course there are going to be fans that will buy this or any other UFC card and good for them . But arguing that this card lacks stars or general interest compared to other cards is ridiculous.
Evans vs Silva is no main event material…
And even if you gather 4 friends it’s still an expense
If you gather four friends it is $11 bucks a head for the HD broadcast of a UFC PPV. That is the same price you pay for a month of Showtime, yet many people consider Strikeforce on Showtime to be ‘free’.
MMA blogs as journalists is like saying Howard Stern is a journalist. Same way Dana gets bashed for using hyperbole… “journalists”: do the same thing except Dana is a promoter and is part of the job description.
Dana said write whatever you want, just base it on facts. Say UFC 108 sucks if you want – he’ll disagree but there’s over a dozen guys fighting this weekend and not even a blip on sherdog until new years fuckin day.
Compare that to how they covered strikefroce’s Cung Le vs Scott Smith… CUNG LE VS FUCKIN SCOTT SMITH for crying out loud.
I suppose Rashad Evans, Thiago Silva and the rest of the guys on the card aren’t worthy of at least the same amount of coverage as Scott Smith. The same guys who say: “It’s not about the orgs, it’s about the fighters” clearly are hypocrites.
There was a phenomenon a while back called “self hating jews” (Jews being anti-semetic because they didnt want to be jewish and for no other reason) and some believed Hitler suffered from this (it was only a rumor that he was part jewish which was dispelled).
The same phenomenon is occurring here… “journalists” cant stand and hate the fact that they owe most of their existence to Dana White.
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