The Sky Is Falling: The Tale of Groundless MMA Media Panic
by Michael Rome on Dec 3, 2009 8:48 PM EST
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In July 2009, the UFC set an all-time buyrate record for UFC 100. One month later, they drew over 900,000 buys for a show that would not have cracked 600k just a year before. A second show in the same month drew a number in the mid-400's. In October, a fight between two Brazilians with no co-main event drew roughly 500,000 buys.
Just about 1 month later, the sky is falling! Growth is stunted! Has MMA peaked? I don't mean to be dismissive, but MMA fans have this built-in fear that the sport is just a fad, so any proof that the growth is not on a permanent upward trajectory causes panic. People need to get a grip.
The UFC got killed by the injury bug, and the combination of bad luck with a heavy schedule left us with a series of weak, uninspired shows to end the year. UFC 108 is probably a 300,000 buy show, or even less. Anderson Silva used to draw 300,000 for title defenses just over a year ago; there's no reason to be sure Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva will beat that number. UFC 109 was originally going to have a double main event of Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort and Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman. Now Anderson is out with an injury, leaving Randy to carry the show. Amusingly, a 46 year old is now the UFC's most active fighter.
But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Brock Lesnar will return in late Spring or Summer, and his return will be positively massive. Chuck Liddell is training to return, and there are rumors of a fight in the Spring. Georges St. Pierre will return in March, and Anderson Silva is likely to return in April. Lyoto Machida and Shogun will have their rematch in May, and the UFC is back in talks with Quinton Jackson about coming back to fight Rashad Evans, perhaps on the Memorial Day show.
The dry streak looks like 3 months. It seems like more because they're doing a lot of shows, but people need to take a long view of things. Some observers have waited so long for a slowdown that they're chomping at the bit to pronounce a decline. They'll be silenced again by next summer. MMA fans should be more confident in their sport. It's popular for a reason. When the stars return, so will the numbers, and they may even be bigger than expected.
The path upward is not always linear. There are bumps and bruises along the way. In this instance, mostly bruises. Relax, Spring is just around the corner.
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finally....
some sense
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by the fight what you saw, in the ring"
To me, fights are fights. I’ll watch every event I can see. The card doesn’t matter.
It does annoy me to have no title fights, though. Thank god for the WEC.
"Negative, negative. I gotta stay lean and lightning and ready to fight." Capt. H.M. Murdock
by BadB on Dec 3, 2009 8:09 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
DITTO!!
Yeah, I’m going to complain because I get to see Evans vs. Thiago Silva. Whatever.
“To me, fights are fights. I’ll watch every event I can see. The card doesn’t matter.” – BadB
I didn’t even bother reading this article, because the title and picture perfectly captured the sentiment. It’s also basically how I feel concerning the whole Anderson Silva backlash concerning the injury, the question of an injury, the back-door politics, etc. When the MW champion gets back in the Octagon, I’ll just enjoy the action.
Check out my recent MMA drawings on my blog, drop a comment, or subscribe via RSS for updates http://www.scritchandscratch.com/blog/?tag=mma
by VeeisAnimated on Dec 3, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I’m going to complain because I get to see Evans vs. Thiago Silva. Whatever.
I might have objections about paying $45-$55 for this as a headlining event. Sure I’ll watch it in a bar while carousing and socializing with friends, but the business model of the company by and large depends (at this point) in me (and all my friends) buying the card and watching it at home.
I watch the majority of the cards at the bar.
Every once in a while I’ll pay for the PPV.
Check out my recent MMA drawings on my blog, drop a comment, or subscribe via RSS for updates http://www.scritchandscratch.com/blog/?tag=mma
by VeeisAnimated on Dec 4, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
To me, fights are fights. I’ll watch every event I can see. The card doesn’t matter.
Very well said.
Thank god for the WEC.
Comment of the year.
Props to Mr. Rome for a well written article.
WEC
WEC WEC WEC WEC . . . I wish I can catch Bellator Fighting
Check out my recent MMA drawings on my blog, drop a comment, or subscribe via RSS for updates http://www.scritchandscratch.com/blog/?tag=mma
by VeeisAnimated on Dec 4, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
Agree. There’s nothing to freak out about. The sport will have it’s little setbacks and injuries…lesser cards, etc. All this huge growth has come in a terrible economic climate, which says a lot to me about the sport’s staying power. Add in the fact that the UFC has picked up Belfort, Little Nog, and Yvel recently, bringing some fresh blood into the mix, plus the exposure brought by Chuck’s DTWS stint, Kimbo’s Ultimate Fighter appearance, and all signs for the future look quite good.
by Kwisatz Haderach on Dec 3, 2009 8:13 PM EST reply actions
Ahhhhh!!! Freak out!!! We’re all gonna die!!!!! Press the RED BUTTON!!!! We are at DEFCON 1!!!!!!
Keep firing Assholes!
In Idaho, it's illegal to f--- a porcupine. You know why? Because someone tried it.
The only issue I have (and its not much of one to be fair), is I feel that the UFCs schedule has grown faster than it can comfortably service. And by that I mean deal with injuries and suspensions and still put on cards worthy of the brand name. To be fair to them again, they are not far off that, but they do lack star power outside of their champions (and within their champions too). I really want the WEC to merge with the UFc so bad its not funny.
This thing is
You have to consider how we got here. It’s taken a near prefect storm of injuries and bad timing and worse luck to get to this point, and yet, from my perspective at least, the UFC is still putting on quite entertaining shows.
As the UFC keeps chugging along through this mess, i feel more compelled to admire the depth of the organization than call for the end times. You have to think these are the worst of times, and really, are things that bad?
Now the merger with the WEC we can agree on. I’m not sure what stopping them there.
The mistake I believe the UFC is making is going ahead with inferior cards. Using 100’s momentum I am sure they planned on putting together a series of great cards to get the new, larger audience in the habit of purchasing their events. But (with the plague of illness, injuries, and contract disputes) instead of cutting cards or delaying them they have started offering cards that are just not that compelling. Now fans may feel burned out and disinterested and decide to skip the event, creating a new habit where no longer is it a requirement to see everything. It’s a vicious cycle. I really wish, after Brock announced his illness, they would have dropped 106 and refunded everyone. Sure, they would have taken a hit, but you would be looking at three good cards in a row instead of 4 poor. That is a long period for anyone to wade through an inferior product.
Seriously. The UFC is trying to be the "premiere" MMA league
They should be sticking with QUALITY, not QUANTITY. Leave the fast-food disposable everyday crap to the Strikeforce-level shows.
The path to my fixed purpose is laid with iron rails, whereon my soul is grooved to run. Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering BROCKLESNAR; to the last I grapple with thee.
Merde Happens.
Get over it. The UFC will recover.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Dec 3, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions
you meant mierde?
Ricky Hatton came closer to beating Manny Pacquiao than Marquez did to beating Floyd.
-SC
by The Lethal Haze on Dec 4, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Merde is french for shit.
Keep firing Assholes!
More pale flesh hit the ice than that time they gutted a seal on APTN.
How cultured BE is. Cussin’ in different languages and whatnot.
I knew he meant shit, but I thought he misspelled the Spanish.
Ricky Hatton came closer to beating Manny Pacquiao than Marquez did to beating Floyd.
-SC
by The Lethal Haze on Dec 4, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
Ici, on parle français
I’m from southern Louisiana – Cajun country. Home to Tabasco, the Courir de Mardi Gras, and drive-through daiquiri stands.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Dec 4, 2009 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
spanish is mierda
in spain anyway
'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko
by Well Read Idiot on Dec 4, 2009 5:50 AM EST up reply actions
The UFC is back in talks with Rampage?
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Dec 3, 2009 8:19 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
They should take 108 off of PPV......
and air it on the Dubba Dubbba Dubba you Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
"He's got a great package and it's an unusual one." - Joe Rogan on Lyoto Machida @ UFC 94.
It was sort of a perfect storm of saturation and injuries. I think it would be shortsighted to not think that 3 consecutive weeks of MMA didn’t play a part in the low numbers for Forrest Ortiz though.
But yeah, I’m surprised so many people are thinking the UFC is in trouble. It isn’t, but it has to be careful as they add more shows.
According to Dana’s most recent twitter post…it doesn’t sound like BROCKLESNAR is doing so good after all…
Just saw Nick Thomas Fan Shot of Dana’s Twitter page regarding Brock…
I’ll trade you a Nigerian prince and some stock in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities.
by pdl on Dec 3, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
" I don’t mean to be dismissive, but MMA fans have this built-in fear that the sport is just a fad, so any proof that the growth is not on a permanent upward trajectory causes panic."
Which is being fostered by writers on this very site just a few posts below this one.
by ufc4 on Dec 3, 2009 8:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions
which is what makes this site unique and better than all others… all perspectives are debated.
by mmalogic on Dec 3, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
thanks
that is much appreciated and exactly what we’re about.
I’ve frequently been accused of banning people for disagreeing with me, but our actual history is to bring the divergent view points onto the staff so we can have a bigger and better debate.
People get banned for being disagreeable, not for disagreeing.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
by Kid Nate on Dec 3, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
No you’re just catering to all the psycho-graphics/fans (the haters and the nuthuggers) to maximize traffic… you wanna be fox news and msnbc.
The best way to get eyeballs is to either confirm your audience’s world view or challenge it and you’re balancing both for each group very well.
(cnn is last place in the ratings for a reason)
by mmalogic on Dec 3, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's sad that this had to be written.
The panic is a little ridiculous. While the whole Tito vs. Griffin buyrate is low and there is somewhat an oversaturation of shows that aren’t good, it’s no need to panic.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
I Don't Get It...
Who’s panicking? I think posters are making something out of nothing. All Kid Nate’s article did was post some observations made by Meltzer and Arnold.
There were a lot of people believing what Meltzer said, which is absurd.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Bless you Rome!
I dont agree with everything you write, but this has my vote for BE article of the year.
Simple and obvious, but ever so truthfull.
Some of your fellow BE staffers should take this to heart.
Take what to heart?
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
That knife in SidHartman's hand
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Dec 3, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody wants to watch the Lions play the Browns
the NFL is DEAD!
People are ridiculous. Put the best against the best, put on top flight fights people want to see, and you’ll be right back where we were in July.
During a perfect storm of injuries, sicknesses, increase of programming and the rebirth of Mr. T… having 2 guys who aren’t in title contention pull a little less than the base ppv buy isnt horrid. It wasnt great either.
The biggest indicator to look at will be 107. Meltzer is wrong that we have to wait to see the current “realities”
In every impulsive movement (up or down) which is what we saw start (up) in May comes with it a correction and then the movement continues on its trajectory.
The problem is if the correction is not a correction and is an impulsive movement in the opposite direction which in every case indicates a change in the trend.
UFC 107 is will be the best indicator to see whether this is in fact a correction or an impulsive movement down. Every indicator (ratings, merch sales, etc… except for 106 buys say it is infact only a correction and not a change in trend however 107 will have to confirm it.)
Remember the buys for 106 is around the number of people who buy every UFC show so the difference in numbers between 104 and 106 is telling me that this is becoming more “sport” and less “novelty”… more NFL and less “wwe”. More importance on the competition and its relevance within the division than spectacle.
This is great for Zuffa. It was the “novelty” that never transitioned to “sport” that killed MMA in Japan. The more this becomes a divisional sport the more sustainable and predictable it will be.
Guys like Tito, Randy, Chuck , etc… need to be used for overseas shows and Free programming as they’ll still pull great on TV and get Attention in new markets but PPV’s need to be differentiated more so it maintains its “perceived value”.
107 is the key here. Not only will it show where we’re at in the trajectory but also if UFC primetime had any lagging affects on BJ’s pull.
If 107 comes in at less than 300k buys run for the hills… as that’s the break point which will indicate an opposite trend. It will correct higher once the movement completes (UFC might do some shows with 600k to 800k buys next year) but then it will continue down until an opposite trend/impulse occurs and that’s tuf (pun intended) as shit to re-engineer in the same market.
by mmalogic on Dec 3, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
No way in hell 107 does less than 300K. There’s over 1.2 million people in Hawaii, assuming 4 people per household that’s 300K buys right there.
by ufc4 on Dec 3, 2009 10:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
According to Scientific American 26% of Americans suffer from some sort of mental illness. 308 millon Americans, 80 million of whom are mentally ill, 4 to a household, there’s 20 million buys right there.
Keep firing Assholes!
More pale flesh hit the ice than that time they gutted a seal on APTN.
by Ubernoober on Dec 3, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
These are the Diego Sanchez fans I assume?
by ufc4 on Dec 3, 2009 11:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
They are his people.
Keep firing Assholes!
More pale flesh hit the ice than that time they gutted a seal on APTN.
by Ubernoober on Dec 3, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
This Diego gif is HILARIOUS!!
Check out my recent MMA drawings on my blog, drop a comment, or subscribe via RSS for updates http://www.scritchandscratch.com/blog/?tag=mma
by VeeisAnimated on Dec 4, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
Rec'dddd!
hahaha. you crack me up Uber..
by Anton Tabuena on Dec 4, 2009 3:10 AM EST up reply actions
I’ll be one of those households who are buying.
by bigislandboi808 on Dec 4, 2009 5:02 AM EST up reply actions
107 is too soon too, but yes, less than 300k for that show would be bad.
The test is 111 for GSP.
by Michael Rome on Dec 4, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
?
I thought the “test for GSP” was some sort of gene disorder, and then I look up at the clock and it’s 6:07 in the morning.
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
Guys like Tito, Randy, Chuck , etc… need to be used for overseas shows and Free programming as they’ll still pull great on TV
I usually give a lot of deference to your view but this part of your comment is insane. Randy and Tito had HORRIBLE fights, and Randy couldn’t even draw a big rating for a free TV fight last time out. Chuck’s on dancing with the stars looking foolish (why did they let him to that?!?!) and has Dana saying he’ll never let him fight again. The draw of the old guard is dying quickly, and these guys probably can’t pop a rating to save their lives – maybe one Chuck un-retirement fight? The future outlook depends on those who received the torch – Brock, GSP, BJ, Anderson and Machida; and two aren’t being the most cooperative.
If you had been in the arena in Manchester
you’d know that the roar when Randy entered was deafening – pretty much on a par with the support that Bisping and Hardy got; because overseas markets hardly ever get UFC events on their soil, they absolutely embrace the chance to watch such legends of the sport as Couture, Liddell and so on.
It didn’t matter much that the Couture/Vera fight wasn’t as explosive or dynamic as we’d have liked it to be, but for the UK fans it was still an unforgetable moment.
by VikingPhotography on Dec 4, 2009 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
I won’t disagree that UFC starved foreign fans will eat up whatever you give them and will go nuts for a live show with Randy and Chuck, et al. However, I don’t think that’s a viable long term solution or that putting these guys on the overseas ppvs (which have problems drawing in the first place) will do any good for the buys or the ratings. Nostalgia is great for a while but once you realize you’re not getting the “2003-2006” vintage versions of these fighters, it wears off quickly.
the play with the overseas cards isn't the PPV sales
hell they were originally conceived as cards for HBO anyway. The point of the overseas cards is to build the global brand and grow the market for UFC/mma. They need to have booming live gates and good overseas TV deals and then do decent on US ppv without diluting the US brand too much.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
How to increase buy rates for less-than-stellar events
don’t charge as much!
Complicated, I know, but maybe it could work?
by some schmuck in texas on Dec 3, 2009 10:48 PM EST reply actions
I have been watching and following professional wrestling since I was born, and the UFC is NOT EVEN CLOSE to how far professional wrestling has fallen
I title my post like that because I have seen professional wrestling peak, and I have seen it fallen. The UFC, however, is not even close to falling. With wrestling, the domestic PPV buyrates have been down for years while programs like RAW or Smackdown aren’t even close to the numbers that WWE’s heyday once achieved. While it may seem like an odd comparison, the point I am trying to make is that when the UFC TRULY falls, the fans will know, and they will see it gradually and consistently, and not in some 3 month span. The quality of the fights are still very high, and fighters are only getting better, not worse.
Well said Rome, the worst part of it all is that when there is great news to report it goes under the radar the fact that Machida vs. Shogun drew 500k buys is incredible. Yet it only seems lately that badnews is the only thing being put and it’s gotten really tired.
What’s even worse is that it appears as most fans are starfuckers, what happened to putting on great fights between good fighters. It seems now as if it’s not a title fight or the guy hasn’t destroyed the last 3 guys he faced someone is bitching about paying $45 bucks. You know what if it’s such a chore keep the money and shut the fuck up instead of complaining every month.
Give me great fights and the best fighters and i’m happy, shit happens not every card can be headlined by mulitple title fights and undefeated fighters. I swear it’s become so frustrating these past few months listening to people put down really good fights because a fighter a. doesn’t have a big enough name or b. isn’t fighting for a title. Yet if it’s a competitor of the UFC they will accept anybullshit fight and mark out over mismatches give me a break.
Heaven forbid someone insinuate the UFC could potentially be doing anything other than marching onward to total victory.
"Brock Lesnar will return in late Spring or Summer..." (sic)
Has that been announced? I haven’t heard them move off the “career-threatening illness” statement yet.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Dec 4, 2009 1:25 AM EST reply actions
Chuck Liddell is training to return, and there are rumors of a fight in the Spring.
This is a long term good thing how? Basically they’re going for the “cheap pop” at the ‘expense’ of a fighter their president said he’d never let fight again under their banner for long-term safety reasons. Liddell making his triumphant return reeks of desperation more than anything else at this point.
UFC 109 was originally going to have a double main event of Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort and Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman. Now Anderson is out with an injury, leaving Randy to carry the show.
Uhhhh…I honestly don’t know how this would have been any different in the “good times” regardless of the current troubles that are being had because Randy’s proved to be washed up as a fighter and draw.
Washed up?
This isn’t sherdog or ug, we’re not a bunch of turds to easily troll (well maybe ufc4 is). Couture is still a very relevant fighter and is probably one or two wins away from a LHW shot. Whether he deserves it or not is debatable, but after the old-timers division fight against Coleman, he’ll probably be given one big name like Evans or the loser of Rua/Machida. If he wins those, I will bet you whatever you like he gets a LHW title shot.
Insofar as a draw, 102 did ~450k. Certainly not Lesnar, but still perfectly within line of what a decent main event should bring.
http://mixedmartialartsblogger.wordpress.com/
by Cory Braiterman on Dec 4, 2009 2:34 AM EST up reply actions
Uhhh…that wasn’t an attempt at trolling, you have seen his last few fights haven’t you? He’s slower than molasses, lacks an effective offence and just plain looks OLD. He will get really hurt if you put him in there with the likes of Machida, Rua or Evans because his striking and reflexes have hit some pretty low poins. The only reason he gets a title shot is for one last kick at the can of using up Randy’s ppv drawing abilities, not based on merit.
Wow i can’t remember the UFC putting on two PPV’s in one month. (If they actually do the Machida-Shogun on the 1st and Rampage-Rashad on memorial day)
But don’t get me wrong they are huge events but maybe some people will have to choose which show to pick…but idk
Wait my-bad, earlier this year UFC 93-94 were back to back PPV in the same month.
How the heck did i miss that….
by bigislandboi808 on Dec 4, 2009 5:28 AM EST up reply actions
Fear, panic and doom sell...
I think that’s basically the main explanation for why so many mma journalists are churning out all these stories. It’s a “here and now” thing and the media cycle is so quick to turn over, most people will forget about the fact that they even wrote these stories in two months.
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