TUF 10 Finale Preview: Can Matt Veach Upset the Seasoned Frankie Edgar?
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 2:00 PM EST
in MMA Events
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The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 Finale will also feature a couple of match-ups not related to the show in order to spotlight some of the UFC's other top assets. UFC lightweight veteran Frankie Edgar (10-1, 5-1 UFC) will get a chance to get a little more exposure as he takes on undefeated UFC prospect Matt Veach (11-0, 1-0 UFC) as he is replacing Kurt Pellegrino following an injury. While the bout doesn't look to be a dangerous affair for the seasoned Edgar, Veach's finishing ability and training with Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler at H.I.T. Squad in Granite City, Illinois should give him the chance to win. After all, Hughes did produce Brian Foster, a huge underdog who demolished Brock Larson at UFC 106. Could we see another huge upset in the making?
Both Veach and Edgar have wrestling pedigrees as a base for their skill-sets. Veach was a NCAA Division I qualifier and JUCO All-American while Edgar was a four-time national qualifier at Clarion University of Pennsylvania. The major difference is that Edgar has a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Ricardo Almeida, and he's visibly improved his boxing technique substantially after dismantling Sean Sherk at UFC 98 with speed and quickness in his strikes.
The other major difference that stacks the deck in favor of Edgar is his strength of competition. In only his fourth professional fight, he took on Deividas Taurosevicius. Winning via unanimous decision, he went on to defeat Jim Miller, Tyson Griffin, Mark Bocek, and Spencer Fisher before running into Maynard's wrestling ability. Wins over Hermes Franca and Sean Sherk have put him back into title talk with a couple of more wins.
This is a great month for upsets so far, but I'm going to have to go with Frankie Edgar here. Veach offers some solid submission ability within his wrestling base, but Edgar is too seasoned and smart to get caught. He's also fairly good in his stand-up defense, and his chin has been tested in a few of his past fights as well. Veach's best chance is to take this to a decision and hope he does enough damage to win, and I don't think he can win that type of battle against the speedy in-and-out footwork of Edgar.
Veach is pretty aggressive, and he nearly got knocked out against Matt Grice because of it. Edgar won't miss that opportunity to land, but he may not be able to actually finish Veach. I'll still go out on a limb and pick Edgar by a stoppage in the second round.
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Edgar should win but Veach can win
I’m sure you will have the people that give Veach zero chance but he does. Everyone stands a chance in any match.
Ever since Shogun-Griffin, Cro Cop-Gonzaga, and GSP-Serra I will never say that a fighter stands no chance even if its against a Fedor or Silva.
I mean look at Machida how many people thought Shogun had no chance just because they saw Machida ko Silva and Evans and even if you think Machida won that fight Shogun punished Machida more than anybody in his entire career and that is why you dont sleep on anyone.
Obviously, everyone has a chance. It’s MMA. Anything can happen, but picking fights normally doesn’t put that factor in because the man who should win wins more times than the man who shouldn’t.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
True
I just think a lot of people sleep on guys. A lot of people have never heard of Veach and so they think this guy is a cake walk for Edgar but the dude is 11-0.
If Veach pulls the upset BE will have 2 kinds of posters, the one’s saying that Edgar is overated and the one’s that say Veach is the next big thing now.
I like Veach’s style, but Edgar is just too good. I actually bet on Foster to beat Larson only because I thought his style of punching people’s faces in while they tried to take him down was quite effective. I really didn’t think the bet would win though.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
This is such peculiar matchmaking. Whether it’s Edgar vs. Pellegrino or Edgar vs. Veach, it’s a strange step back for a guy who beat Sean Sherk in his last fight. I just don’t see the reasoning at all.
I wish they would have gone with Edgar as Florian’s next opponent and given Guida this fight instead.
I think they are both trying to keep getting Edgar’s name out there while they push him towards a title shot as well as capitalize on the name value he has towards making this show have some legitimately good fighters on it.
And even worse case scenario that he loses, you have an undefeated prospect who just beat Edgar who is one or two fights away from a title shot.
But what does a win over Kurt Pellegrino or Matt Veach do to push Edgar towards a title shot? It certainly does nothing to remove the taint of having lost to still-undefeated Gray Maynard in the not-too-distant past. It’s high risk / low reward.
by JRN on Dec 3, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
It gives him the opportunity to finish a guy spectacularly on SpikeTV. It’s high risk, but it has a higher reward than you think.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Edgar has exactly zero spectacular finishes in his UFC career (maybe his whole career). Why bank on him doing pulling one off now?
by JRN on Dec 3, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
He’s also fought a bunch of guys who aren’t known to be easily finished in his UFC career. The one guy he didn’t was Bocek, and he TKO’d his ass in 4 minutes. You can’t do it without opportunity, and this is an opportunity.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 3, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
OK, so you could give him the opportunity to maybe pull off a nice finish on a guy, at the risk of either having him either win unremarkably (which would basically be spinning his wheels) or derailing his career.
Or, you could put him against somebody that’s on his level in the UFC LW division—which certainly makes a lot more sense given Edgar just beat a former champion—and make a meaningful fight that guarantees that somebody walks away with a really good win under their belt.
I prefer the latter scenario. The former would make a lot more sense if Edgar was coming off a loss, but he’s coming off the biggest win of his career.
by JRN on Dec 3, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
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