Is Mike Swick in a lose-lose situation against Paulo Thiago?
by NCSAR on Dec 29, 2009 9:58 AM EST
Email
PrintI posted this over at my blog but wanted to share with you guys, and hear your thoughts...
Here is the post...
If you haven't heard, Kos is out of his UFC 109 fight with Paulo Thiago due to an undisclosed injury. His fearless buddy Mike Swick is stepping up to take his place. While tons of analysts are saying how great a move this is, I don't see it that way. This fight is a very dangerous one for Swick, and another loss could take him from the land of contender to cellar of pretender.
Think back to the Dan Hardy vs. Mike Swick fight. It was set to determine who would take on the superman of the division in GSP. In other words, Mike Swick was two wins away from being crowned champion and enshrined in history as another TUF 1 vet who made the journey to become champion.
Instead he fought an inspired Dan Hardy and lost a very one sided unanimous decision. I am sure he is still feeling the hangover of a loss, but is Thiago the right rebound fight?
Since stepping into the UFC, Paulo Thiago has only lost one fight and that was to long time top contender Jon Fitch. He also own wins over injuree Josh Koscheck and Jacob Volkmann. Prior to his UFC contract he won an impressive ten fights in a row, even more impressive is the fact that he finished every single one of them!
Swick has been fighting much better competition over the past few years, but Thiago is dangerous. Although Swick has never been defeated by submission (in his career), Paulo's submission game is nasty!
I am not saying the old everyone can beat everyone bit, but what I am saying is that this is an unnecessary risk for Swick. Odds are, he jumped at the chance to step in for Kos. Why not wait for Joe Silva to call and offer your next fight?
I get that AKA feels that they should protect each other, and that they are a tight knit group, they should be, but in my opinion the decision to take this fight is a bad one for Swick. It is almost a lose-lose situation. If he wins, he beat a fighter that would then be 2-2 in the UFC, not a big deal for someone who was a fight away from a shot at the title. If he suffers a loss, it hurts...BAD! It slides him farther away from a title shot, and possible puts him in a position where he may never climb back to the top of the heap.
This is not a fight breakdown or pick, I am just saying that this is a very dangerous fight, and one that holds more weight for Swick than many...
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
12 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I don't think its...
lose – lose. It def. isn’t the best fight that swick could take, but I’m sure he’s looking at it as a easier fight, and a quick paycheck. If you think about the fight between Thiago and Kos, kos was easily out striking Thiago, until that last exchange.
I think Swick is generally considered the better striker between the two AKA fighters, and he should be able to pick Thiago apart on the feet, and as long as he doesnt go to the ground, he should be able to pull out a win
nah, the UFC has enough 'protected' fighters
I say who cares about the Swick “TUF-made-good” storyline. My favorite storyline is “Dana builds up TUF fighter, TUF fighter gets annihilated by vastly superior champ” and if Swick doesn’t even have the mustard to earn a GSP loss for himself by fighting whoever’s next to him in the division, sucks for him. That’s not a real contender.
If you want to feel bad for someone, feel bad for Paulo Thiago who keeps having to fight these AKA top-10 welters instead of having the opportunity to legitimately develop for himself. He has the worst luck for matchups in the 170 lb. division, and he’s making a go of it. Swick has had plenty of time.
If he wins this, I hope PT gets a title shot just to see Kos’ head explode.
I’d say Mike Swick is in a win-lose situation, because he could either win this fight, or lose it.
by JRN on Dec 29, 2009 6:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
and a win would put him back in the picture
Unfortunately these AKA guys are gonna have to fight each other unless Paul Daley and Carlos Condit step up but who knows . . . These San Jose trio unwilling to fight is the reason Dan Hardy is getting a title shot.
I see him trying to get some revenge for his teammate, which really I think revenge was the real reason the kos/thaigo rematch was made anyway. You pump up thiago as being such a dangerous matchup and then state that a win over a 2-2 opponent will not help swick’s cause. Swick has had his chance and as much as I like him as a fighter, his injury before the kampman fight and then loss to hardy puts him at the back of a long line of both teammates and other ww. I dont see swick being in a position to get a title shot again regardless.
Swick
will probably beat Paulo, but he can’t have any mental lapses. PT is a dangerous guy, is active from the bottom, has good power in his hands (which he showed against Kos & Volkmann), and doesn’t stop until the bell rings. The guy just doesn’t have any quit in him.
That said, I think the strongest facet of Thiago’s game are his top- control submissions/ GnP, and he probably doesn’t have the takedowns to get Swick down & keep him there.
Swick should have an advantage standing, and will probably use his length to outpoint Thiago on the feet. Should be a great fight
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture FTMFW.
'09 is the year of the FW's.
lose-lose
unless he WINS.
The path to my fixed purpose is laid with iron rails, whereon my soul is grooved to run. Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering BROCKLESNAR; to the last I grapple with thee.
AKA WWs
needs to sac up and fight each other or go to different organizations, its very frustrating the limitations they are putting on the division
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MMA Rankings
