Upset of the Year: Paulo Thiago Knocks Out Josh Koscheck

Ray Hui of Fanhouse has made a list, but let's stick to his #5 choice:

5. Paulo Thiago vs. Josh Koscheck, UFC 95
Paulo Thiago appeared to be someone brought in to keep Josh Koscheck active and the assumption was that Thiago would be another one-and-done in the UFC. Sure, he was perfect in 10 fights coming into his UFC debut, but his fights were against unheard-of local fighters in Brazil. However, with a nasty right uppercut that dropped Koscheck, Thiago propelled himself from an unknown to a title contender -- for better or for worse: Thiago has yet to receive an easy assignment.

I chose this upset to focus on rather than the others on the list because it's the one with the longest lasting impact. The UFC is still trying to repair the damage Thiago wreaked on the division when he knocked Koscheck off the contention track.

Here's what Michael Rome wrote at the time:

At UFC 74, Josh Koscheck lost a tough decision to Georges St. Pierre. St. Pierre was the clear winner, but Koscheck put in the most competitive performance against GSP during St. Pierre's recent streak. According to Dave Meltzer, he was just two wins away from getting a rematch. His shocking loss created a situation in which there are no clear contenders for St. Pierre's title after Thiago Alves.

...

If GSP beats Alves, the welterweight division will rapidly start to resemble the middleweight division, a division with a champion seen as so dominant that his fights are greeted with growing disinterest.

And here we are. Gearing up for Dan Hardy's epic challenge to GSP's throne and wishing there was a "real contender" in the UFC's welterweight division.

In the full entry, we'll see what Brent Brookhouse had to say about how Koscheck messed up.

From Brent Brookhouse's How Not to Punch feature on the fight:

Today's Rule:  You never, ever, ever bend at the waist and look at the ground while throwing a punch.  Especially a "push jab" with little snap behind it.

Look at the action here.  Josh starts by lunging when he throws the jab, his feet leave the ground as he starts to throw the punch.  There is no reason to "jump in" with this punch for starters.  It isn't like a superman punch, you're not gaining any momentum on the jab by hopping forward as you throw it.  A jab is a snap punch, the power on it comes from pumping it and snapping it back.

Next, as he hops he bends at the waist.  I suppose there is an argument to be made that he was "changing angles" but to me it is all part of his getting cocky in not only his new found KO power but in the fact that Thiago hadn't yet been able to really strike with him. Looking at his body positioning I can only guess that he was going to try to wing a big overhand right behind the bunny hop.

Lastly, watch Josh's eyes as he throws the jab.  Where are they?  Is he locked in on his target in Paulo's head?  Is he locked in on Paulo's chest and shoulders to follow any potential counterpunch movement?  No, he is looking downward somewhere between Thiago's legs and the ground.  Josh gave himself no chance to see a punch coming in return and in the end it came down to bad jab vs. solid uppercut.  Guess which one wins that clash damn near every time?

While Thiago's striking was anything but technically sound for the fight up to that point in the fight he was able to sit down on one uppercut that Josh was leaping in to the power of and not looking as it hit him in the jaw.  The reason the old saying "the shot that hurts the most is the one you don't see coming" is true is because you're usually not in a position to defend it although you usually aren't also hopping like a bunny directly into the other guy's power at the same time.