The Sky Is Not Falling: UFC 107 Draws 620,000 Buys
by Michael Rome on Dec 23, 2009 10:23 PM EST
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Put another stake in the heart of the oversaturation argument. As if it hadn't been disproved enough times, the argument has taken another hit, because the 8th MMA show in the period of 5 weeks drew a monster buyrate. According to Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription only), UFC 107 did 620,000 buys, blowing away all expectations.
I've long argued that oversaturation isn't a problem as long as the UFC can deliver good shows. There's no way to argue that "too many shows" caused the poor UFC 106 number while UFC 107 did such a big one just two weeks later. Oversaturation is a problem in that it limits the UFC's ability to adapt when stars get injured because there are less replacements, and it may lead to weaker shows overall, but the concept that fans will skip a good looking UFC show just because they've seen a lot recently is simply wrong.
Besides the strong title match, one major difference-maker was Frank Mir, who has emerged as one of the top 5 UFC draws. He was pure gold on the countdown show; Mir has become a better Tito Ortiz than Ortiz ever was. Unlike Ortiz, he's still relevant in 2009, which helps explain why UFC 107 blew UFC 106 out of the water.
It's hard to believe that a short string of disappointing numbers for weak cards lead to a chorus that the sky was falling, but these numbers should help everyone relax and take a breath. UFC 108 will do a horrible number; that should be obvious to anyone with a functioning brain considering the card. The number won't be a sign of decline or some impending doom; rather, it will reflect the fact that the card is not worthy of PPV and should have been moved to Spike TV or cancelled altogether.
In February 2008, Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir did 600,000 buys, a huge number at the time. Almost 2 years later, BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez topped it. The sky is not falling.
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Penn + Diego + Florian + Mir = 620,000?
I sadly had an idea in my head it would do better. After the mil+ for 100 and 101 featuring Mir and BJ respectively, I hoped they would be able to recreate something similar. I guess that was me being overoptimistic, and that 101s buyrate was most likely attributable to the success of 100 rather than the drawing power of Penn, Silva, or Griffin. It seems that the mil+ card is not likely to be recreated without Lesnar or directly in his wake.
Please do not mistake this for negativity, my expectations were unrealistic. Good numbers on a good card, here’s to MMA.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Everyone is over the sky falling for the UFC, and now they've moved on to the sky is falling for Strikeforce
I’ve been reading much more predictions and assumptions of the demise of Strikeforce lately, so it looks like the UFC is safe for the moment.
by chrisbboy82 on Dec 24, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Didnt only 103 and 106 do poor numbers?
Obviously 100 and 101 did fantastic numbers and I thought 102 and 104 did very respectable numbers.
103 can be blamed partially on a poor card but also the fact that Dana and company underestimated how much Mayweather could draw still.106 well that was a crap card in most people’s mind. A main event featuring fighters who had gone 0-3-1 in their last combined 4 fights was asking for trouble but we all know the Lesnar situation there.
I wouldnt be surprised to see both 108 and 109 tank but 110 should do decent and 111 with GSP back and Mir/Carwin fighting for the interim should do great. Then it should be all uphill from there unless we have a serious setback again like more injuries and Lesnar not ever being able to fight again.
I've always been a Mir guy
Not to toot my own horn, but I said Mir could sell fights. Mir sold a fight against Kongo…I mean really. I know the Mir haters thought Kongo could win, but really we are talking about Kongo. If Mir can beat Carwin or something like that it will be huge…
i second that.
he (almost) always finds a way, using his intelligence to create a superior gameplan. i love any fighter that is “cerebral” (as he would say) in that way.
it drives me insane...
when people pick a winner for a fight based on their hatred for another fighter. i don’t like anderson silva, but I’m not gonna bet against him until his ass loses.
me too.
he’s one of the main sparks that ignited my MMA fandom
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Dec 23, 2009 10:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
CAN ANYONE TELL ME PL
can some pl answer me this question, Are the ppv numbers they are reffering to world wide, or just here in the US. Because if they r world wide it seem like it should be much higher, especially with canada, and the UK, an australia, and other top markets?
I always thought
that PPV buyrates include Canada + USA, similar to the North America box offce stats.
Maybe Canada
The UK gets most if not all UFC PPV’s on ESPN in the U.K., I think.
Austrilia I’m not sure but there was something about at least 110 airing on a channel called “The One”.
I’m assuming Those are North American numbers: US and Canada.
Because if I remember correctly even Mexico has deal to just air UFC PPV’s on tv and not PPV.
All of Australia’s UFC’s are on PPV, even the numbered events that North America get for free sometimes. UFC110 is the first UFC to be shown on free-to-air. I have always wondered myself if the PPV numbers include buys from overseas but i figured that since they are only a projection and not actual numbers, buys from countries such as Australia and the UK are not included.
Sorry, he Jason Bourned me.
620K… that’s great.
The model we built said 540K:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/12/11/1196447/ufc-107-pay-per-view-prediction
I was worried it would be another overestimate. Not sure if anyone has been following the predictions that we post here or not, but I’d be curious what you think. Many people were predicting mid-400’s for this event, so from one point of view I feel like the model got it right. The other point of view is that we were still apparently 80K below with our prediction of 540. Thoughts on if it’s any good?
It’s not rocket science… it’s just based on how high the search/pageview numbers go up in the days before the event. At this point I plan to give it another go for 108.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
Seems reasonably accurate, there are just so many variables. Definitely do it for 108.
by HarmlessNinja on Dec 24, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Frank Mir, who has emerged as one of the top 5 UFC draws.
Not sure how you can quantify something like that, the marketing for BJ and Diego was very good and Mir was just coming off an ungodly beating, and it’s not like he’s had to carry a card by himself (or at all), which is what we’d really need to see to measure how good a draw he is.
Actually I think Diego really helped this card
For whatever reason people really got into him. As weird as he is the whole yes thing carries a whole lot more than Pulver, Stevenson, Sherk, and Florian.
Thats why it would be really hard to sell a BJ vs. Maynard or Edgar fight is they dont have this outgoing personality.
Honestly the only person in mma that can sell a fight without personality is Fedor.
by bigdmmafan on Dec 23, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i honestly thought florian vs. guida was the most intriguing match-up prior to watching… bj has looked unstoppable in every other 155 fight. so i don’t really want to pay to watch him maul someone. and mir vs. kongo was a “classic striker vs. grappler” match-up where the grappler almost always wins, and mir’s stand-up is better than kongo’s ground game. so really, the third-most marketed fight was the most competitive i thought prior to watching, and i think it lived up to its hype despite florian’s dominating takedown defense.
oh...
and i actually bought this ppv, first since 101. and it was because there were 3 different fights with big names who were relevant to their divisions…and fitch was fighting…and because i thought it was a more consistently good card throughout and hard to predict who would have the fight of the night. maybe there’s others like me? who really didn’t care about diego vs. penn?
really didn’t care about diego vs. penn
This statement is rather ironic when combined with your avatar…
Guillotine.
Yeah I hear you. For a lot of people the best fight on 108 is the Dos Santos vs. Yvel match up which is opening the PPV and the best fight to me on 109 is Marquardt – Sonnen which is right now the third fight on that PPV.
i wanna see...
how maia bounces back at 109…
and sam stout vs. joe lauzon jumps out at me on 108…
but other than that, yeah i can’t wait to see those fights.
my problem with that statement (coming as a mir fan) as my top 5 draws in the organization are the champions of all weightclasses. isn’t that supposed to be the biggest draw? the fight that has the most impact on the sport?
Not sure what this proves…put on a solid card and it will draw. Put on a sub-par card that resembles a Fight Night and still try and charge $50 and it won’t sell as well.
But isn’t 107 the exception rather than the rule recently? So, this is really a non-story.
"It would appear that the strain was more than he could bear".- Doc Holliday
by MyFistYourFace on Dec 23, 2009 10:10 PM EST reply actions
Nothing is a story when you spin it not to be
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
by Blackout612 on Dec 23, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
50 bucks
I still continue to buy these ppv’s but they are becoming more watered down by the month. This next ppv is more towards the $ 29.95 then the $49.95 variety. At some point Zuffa needs to skip a month or two.
by KING FEDOR on Dec 23, 2009 10:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions
or take in the WEC’s lighter weight classes and send the not-so-talented fighters to WEC. Start the bashing…now.
by zakkree on Dec 23, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i think they normally have enough talent on their roster to do a PPV each month. just all the injuries happening at the same time recently. but yeah $50 for UFC 108 given the lineup it is offering… it’s a tough sell.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
It'll likely do a low buyrate
But here’s the crazy thing— it’ll be profitable no matter what. They better lean hard on the Countdown show and make Silva/Evans come across as more meaningful than it probably is.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
By my estimate, since they have no big money fighters on this card, somewhere in the 200,000 buys is the break even point. My fear is that it’ll do 300,000+ and the UFC will come to the conclusion that they can present weak cards (I know it’s got some good fights, but lets face it, it’s lacking in star power) and still make a decent profit. If that’s the case, instead of working to get good headliners every card, anytime they run into trouble they’ll say screw it – let’s just make sure we keep the payroll down.
Who are the top 5 PPV draws in the UFC anyway?
1 BROCKLESNARRR!!!!
2 GSP
3 BJ
4 Machida
5 Mur
Keep firing Assholes!
Fedor has accomplished nothing until he fights Kimbo.
i gotta admit...
my dumbass will buy the next chuck card out of loyalty… but he should not be a top 5 draw anymore… im kinda depressed to see him in the octagon as of now.
Maybe Randy, he’s been way more active.
I just had Machida because he’s the one holding the belt in the UFC’s flagship division.
Keep firing Assholes!
Fedor has accomplished nothing until he fights Kimbo.
see? he basically had all the champs as the top 5 draws…
i argued that upthread. but you have mir replacing spider as one non-champion.
Off the charts?
Keep firing Assholes!
Fedor has accomplished nothing until he fights Kimbo.
by Ubernoober on Dec 23, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Rec’d for outside the box coloring thinking
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by in the fight, what you saw, in the ring." - Tito Ortiz
by CasualMMAFan on Dec 24, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Going by Google Trends, in the past couple of years only Lesnar and Kimbo have had higher spikes than Machida.
Guillotine.
Trends looks at what is mentioned in the media.. and I’m sure that most of the news on Machida winning the belt, was that it was a karate practitioner who did it.
That is only part of trends, the main part is actual searches for terms.
Trends data.
Blue = Machida
Red = GSP (the volume is off due to it being an acronym but the spike height is still important)
Green = Lesnar
Yellow = BJ Penn
Dark Blue = Frank Mir
It is at least more info into the equation.
Guillotine.
The "Frank Mir" factor is real......
I have 2 couples I’m friends w/ that like MMA, but they would never post on a message board about it you know? They know about the sport, they like it, but they are by no means the “hard core.” Both of those ppl L O V E Frank Mir. They knew him right away when we started talking MMA and they “Never miss a show when Frank is fighting.” So I think they are onto something here w/ Mir actually being a PPV draw.
Sidebar: People also underrate BJ Penn’s rising star and VERY LOYAL fanbase.
Loyalty
At some point Zuffa has to show some loyalty to the customer base and lower their prices to fit the quality of the card
by KING FEDOR on Dec 23, 2009 10:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
At some point Zuffa has to show some loyalty to the customer base and lower their prices to fit the quality of the card
LOL
I’m sure that will happen just as soon as NFL teams start giving their season ticket buyers a discount for games against the Browns or MLB teams give their ticket buyers a discount for games against the Royals or NBA teams give discounts for games against the Nets.
Offering ‘discount pricing’ is a slippery slope than can erode brand equity almost as quickly as a poor quality of the product.
by Steve4192 on Dec 23, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL really?
I happen to own a TV and the last I checked I could watch a large quantity of NFL games for free. The NFL doesn’t force fans to go to “Browns games”. Weekly you can watch games on Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night for free. LOL ( do grown men use that term)
by KING FEDOR on Dec 24, 2009 12:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ask Bob Arum what over charging gets you.
by KING FEDOR on Dec 24, 2009 12:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah and the NFL wont let you see "your team"
unless they sell out. So yeah even when Detroit or Cleveland or whoever sucks if fans dont buy “the overpriced tickets” then they fans in that city get “blacked out” and cant watch it in the city it didnt sell out in.
And like so many others have pointed out if the PPV sucks dont order them. The price decrease is not gonna happen. I talked to a guy above who said 107 was the first PPV he ordered since 101. Zuffa survived and he’s only going to buy “good” PPV’s so if the UFC wants to see increased buyrates to get people like the guy above to order than they will have to put on a good ppv.
Ugh
Dude, just stop ordering. They’re not going to pass out Subway punch cards anytime soon.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
Mir is a not-stupid version of Tito Ortiz
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Dec 23, 2009 10:58 PM EST via mobile reply actions
we might as well put our own top 5 draws...
since this has become a dispute. i personally have went on record numerously that the champs should be the biggest draws. now thinking further into it, here is my list which goes against what i said.
1) GSP (for obvious reasons)
2) Forrest (I just like the guy. He likes to fight, anyone, anywhere.)
3) Spider (I don’t like his business tactics, but that man can put on a performance when need be.)
4) Brock (The behemoth who everyone wonders… when will he be stopped?)
5) BJ (A new found respect for the man, and a nice alternative to watch after all the sub-par boxing in MMA)
4 of 5 champs, and just because i find forrest more entertaining, mostly outside the ring, than machida. what do you guys think?
After the Spider’s last 2 title defences I would be very reluctant to pay to see him fight. You don’t know which Spider is going to show up, the inhuman destroyer or the tap dancer.
Keep firing Assholes!
Fedor has accomplished nothing until he fights Kimbo.
and you know,
i was ready to kick him out of the list entirely for machida… it just didn’t seem right for some reason. but i personally do not like anderson silva at all. i guess i just try to expect a spectacular performance from him every time. Such as, i feel like he’s going to really showcase his skills when he comes back from the injury. And there’s a very good possibility i will fail completely at that prediction.
so are you saying tap dancers can’t be inhuman destroyers?
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Dec 23, 2009 11:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So you don't think it has anything to do with the guys he was fighting?
For all the crap Forrest Griffin gets he was actually trying to win the fight. Thales Leites was trying to avoid being made into a highlight reel. Unfortunately for us he succeeded.
by BilboMcFonzie on Dec 23, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But i must disagree with Anderson. Yes he is a great fighter but a draw? His last i don’t know how many fights have not generated as much buys as he or Dana would like. (i’m counting out his last one on 101) In the what the 300k area? Thats not close to a good draw.
by bigislandboi808 on Dec 24, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
that was just my top 5 people i pay to see…spider definitely isnt in the top 5 draws based on the buyrates. but i love when he puts on one of his stellar performances, and i really want to see him get beat after all the hassles of getting him to sign a fight contract. so for those reasons, he’s one of the 5 guys i most want to see.
Oh ok i see how you put your list together. Well in that case yeah i can definitely see your point, and yeah i do agree with you on the fact that i love it when he puts on shows and actually comes to fight. But i actually want to see him win and knock off some heads!
by bigislandboi808 on Dec 24, 2009 7:04 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry for ranting all over this thread.
Its just nice to talk to people who enthuse about the sport. Almost all my friends are annoying casual mma fans. Half the people at the TUF finale where i was at were rooting for kimbo. I died inside a little bit when he won and they cheered.
Have patience and educate.
Keep firing Assholes!
Fedor has accomplished nothing until he fights Kimbo.
if i remember reading correctly in another thread, wasn’t your signature at the expense of that fight?
kimbo
I mean not a good fighter but he’s got his followers. From youtube to elite xc to tuf to fight night. He’s got his followers that will walk off a cliff with him, similar to fedors crazy ass fans, minus the fact that fedor typically wins. And kimbo has that backpedalling jab knock out disorder. Otherwise known as BPJKOD. A serious disorder known to expose/crumble organizations.
I'm not calling him dad, even if theres a fire
by II SMASH II on Dec 23, 2009 11:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
if it was a mainstream sport that the nation tuned into every week on ABC or ESPN, I’d say let Kimbo fight every week. But i get very protective when people start liking MMA for the wrong reasons i guess. I’m an annoying shove-it-down-your-throat advocate of MMA being a legitimate sport that should be as popular as all other major sports.
to complete that thought...
i don’t think it could ever become as popular as nfl or mlb without amazing talent alongside the entertainment value.
It’s never either or. The more saturation you have the more pressure you’re going to be under to put on good shows, and the less people are going to be willing to pay for the not so great ones. That’s how I feel personally. Calling it flat out wrong seems a little bit rash. Any good card with superstar names and intriguing match-ups is going to do well despite the saturation, but as those types of cards get more and more frequent there’s going to be a higher need for even better cards. The saturation will surely drive down the average number per event, but they’ll certainly all still make really good money from them. To call it flat out wrong is just, well, wrong.
And here I thought the UFC was doomed and SF was going to take over mma as we know it, guess not.
Anyways while did out do my expectations, there is no surprise this card did well it was untouched for the most part by injuries and had some great hype by Mir and Sanchez going for it.
What people always need to realise is that even when a UFC show underperforms it still makes them alot of money and when one hits well they make more money see the pattern here?.
Buyrates will fluctuate but the brand still stands strong through contract dispute, injuries, or guys going off to make movies. Only 1 thing is for sure the UFC has carved it’s name into the conciousness of their fans and that ain’t changin regardless of how many people cry that the sky is falling the UFC still dominates mma period.
he was on the best TUF season, too
by SteelerStuckintheSouth on Dec 24, 2009 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
The slow motion ping pong game is still the best thing in that show’s history, and I mean that in the best possible way.
Twitter @brettcjones
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
BJ Penn sales figures:
UFC 94: 800,000
UFC 101: 1,050,000
UFC 107: 620,000
Of course, none of it matters. Half his sales are from the middle of the pacific.
Yeah, but...
94 also had GSP, which is a huge boost. 101 was coming off the wake of 100. 107 is the first card he carried mostly on his own (Mir, Diego, Florian are all nice names) and he did some great numbers.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Of course, we could also make the argument that 107 was hurt by 106 and 108. That the lack of other recent compelling cards has helped to diminish the hype, anticpation, and habit for watching UFC events. But you’re right, 600,000 surrounded by generally uninteresting (to the casual) cards seems pretty good.
by John Nash on Dec 24, 2009 1:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I meant to write that
but thought better of it. Part of me believes people held off on buys for 106 and saved for 107 instead. However, the momentum argument could be more valid, I don’t know. Either way, 620k is a great buy number, despite my over-the-top optimism.
I’m making a habit of every time a card does good ratings, saying “Cheers to MMA!” no matter what country or promotion it is under. Success for the sport is always good. Few exceptions apply (promotions that screw fighters or don’t pay). Anybody with me on this?
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
why doesn't that matter?
serious question. Hometown loyalty money spends just like the rest of it.
by some schmuck in texas on Dec 24, 2009 8:59 AM EST reply actions
yeah BJ Penn is a huge draw
And among groups that you would not expect. I remember at UFC 101, being at a pool hall to see the show. There was a big group of caucasian women there, all decked out in lei’s and other Hawaiian-type stuff. They really didn’t pay much attention to the show until the Penn fight, and then they were all right up to the TV screen…
I was at a regular sports bar for 107 and I knew the numbers were going to be huge just from that turn-out and how much attention people were paying. (You can sort of tell how much people care about the fights, besides just how many show up.) Penn was definitely the draw. (And there were a lot more women at this show too.)
Penn draws a lot of different people for a lot of different reasons.
by Lauren J Darkbloom on Dec 24, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions
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