What Chance Does Matt Hamill Have Against Jon Jones?

This fight has "groom Jon Jones" written all over it. Don't be fooled: a "grooming" fight is not one where the outcome is all but decided before the bout itself. Rather, it's one where a rising prospect is tackling a manageable but clear challenge. In this case, a decorated wrestler unafraid of Jones' wrestling with moderately threatening striking:

But when Hamill knocked out Mark Munoz with a single kick to the head at UFC 96 in March, there was no hiding ‘The Hammer’ anymore, especially since you will probably see the ending of the bout on highlight reels forever. It was the first clean knockout of Hamill’s career, but one that didn’t immediately register when he landed the finisher.

"I didn't know he was out until the referee stopped the fight," said Hamill. "It was my first knockout."

It was also the first real sign that Hamill’s standup had started to catch up with his wrestling, a testament to the work he’s been putting in the gym over the years.

"I’ve been working on standup more than wrestling," he admits. "I'm trying to be a well-rounded fighter."

...

"This is Jon’s biggest test and he's probably working harder than ever to keep his unbeaten record," said Hamill. "I will show him a real fight, and it will be a good fight, I can promise that."

As for the prospect of dealing with the unorthodox moves Jones has made his reputation on thus far, Hamill gets right to the point: "my trainer and I have been working on a few things."

Let's be clear: Hamill's attached to fundamentals. Less so in his wrestling as he is able to improvise, but the rehearsed, almost too textbook striking of Hamill's will be his undoing. His lateral and forward movement is often slow, which allows opposition to create angles or adjust positioning. He also allows his opponents too much reset time, which against a brash, explosive striker like Jones is going to be a death sentence.

The longer this fight stays on the feet or more particularly at range, the quicker it ends. Hamill should not be counted out. He is very capable of winning here. But at 33 and with limited upside at this stage in his career, it's clear the UFC wants to use his existing talents to test the next stage of blue chip prospects.

I don't know if we'll see flying colors, but Jones should pass this test.