How Realistic Are Strikeforce's Big Plans for 2010?
by Kid Nate on Dec 19, 2009 1:08 PM EST
in MMA News
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Dave Meltzer reported a couple days back:
Coker expects to run 20 shows during the next fiscal year (March 1, 2010-February 28, 2011) on Showtime, CBS and pay-per-view, the same number industry-leader UFC ran in 2009. The business models are different. Strikeforce went from live-events based to one whose top priority is television events. The UFC's goal is to build fights for monthly pay-per-views. Strikeforce is looking at building television fights and if and when the right big fight falls into place (like a potential Emelianenko vs. Alistair Overeem fight) then going to pay-per-view.
...
Strikeforce, on the other hand, has many of its athletes under non-exclusive contract. It’s a negotiating benefit to not being with UFC, as the fight money in most cases may not be as good as UFC, but the fighters have less restrictions when it comes to marketing themselves and the ability to take outside offers or international fights. Emelianenko and Mousasi, arguably the company’s two best fighters, are under contract to the Russian M-1 Global promotion. When they work for Strikeforce, it’s a co-promotional venture.
Lashley will remain working for TNA, a pro wrestling organization, something White would have never allowed Lashley to do, while agreeing to do three or four MMA fights next year, the first being on Jan. 30 in Sunrise, Fla., the company’s first show of the new year.
Strikeforce's open contract policy has allowed them to dramatically bolster their roster in the short term, but it's not without it's trade-offs. As we've seen, Heavyweight champ Alistair Overeem is continually pursuing other priorities and pushing back the date of his Strikeforce return.
But that's not stopping Coker from scheming to bring the biggest stars of international MMA to Showtime and CBS:
Still, Coker talks of bringing Dream's top stars to the U.S., with ideas for fights next year like Nick Diaz vs. Hayato Sakurai, Dream lightweight champion Shinya Aoki against the winner of Saturday's Josh Thomson vs. Gilbert Melendez match for the Strikeforce lightweight title, a deal he said was "about 90 percent there," or even a legends match with Frank Shamrock vs. Kazushi Sakuraba, which would have been one of the biggest matches possible eight years ago.
Only time will tell if Coker can pull it off.
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Frank Shamrock vs Saku
I haven’t heard any rumors about this potential copromotion, but it sounds like an awesome fight actually. Put this on a co-main event with Henderson/ Mousassi or Diaz/ Zarmoskis headlining and that is a great card. I actually really want this fight to happen.
I don’t think theres any way Shamrock vs Saku ends up happening in Strikeforce. My guess is it will happen in Japan if it all.
by filipinomix2oo0 on Dec 19, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Saku is way bigger in Japan than Shamrock is in the US.
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There was a smaller promotion in Texas that tried to put together Rickson Gracie vs. Sakuraba for Dallas this past summer. Sakuraba had agreed to the deal and Rickson had agreed in principal. They started making plans for a Los Angeles press conference to announce the fight, and then Rickson started asking for more money. The deal fell apart.
Shamrock vs. Sakuraba wouldn’t be a bad fight, even in the USA. Rickson vs. Sakuraba? Different story altogether.
Heavy.com -- Lead Staff Writer
Either way, I see 2010 as a make-or-break year for Strikeforce.It’ll be interesting if they can resign Fedor after his 3 fights are up, but then again, his 3rd fight probably won’t even come til 2011.
Strikeforce has some good momentum going for them in that they just signed Henderson, Fedor vs Rogers got a good rating, they have a CBS card on April, and their roster is steadily improving and growing. However, they need to work on a lot of things as well like having their fighters fight frequently (I’m talking about their whole roster), giving their top-end fighters like Mousasi good fights, and other issues. The problem is that at this point, Strikeforce is still going through growing pains where some can be fixed but others cannot at this time.
Sakuraba vs Shamrock
hasnt anyone noticed that Frank doesn’t have it anymore? So the last win was against the New York “Badass”??? He was demolished by Cung, and Nick. I think Sakuraba would win this fight. They are both washed up, with too many blows to the head and Saku has been KO’d too many times… Let’s not watch these guys start shaking with Parkinsons!!
Sakuraba doesn't have it either
at least the two of them seem less likely to hurt each other seriously than say Manhoef or Cung Le did.
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i don’t know how much they are going to be hitting each other in the head. I imagine this will mostly be a grappling battle.
except that Shamrock's knees are gone
so he can’t shoot for a takedown or sprawl to stop one
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theres always all this talk about all of DREAMS big stars coming over to fight in strikeforce but what about strikeforce guys going over to fight in japan. Just seems like a one way street
I’m not sure Strikeforce/DREAM can share top talent and make it work. I mean Strikeforce can’t even get their Heavyweight Champion to quit fighting in Japan and come fight for them.
Just BE.
Coker is dreaming. UFC has the kind of roster SF can only dream of (in terms of numbers) and a few key injuries have practically crippled the promotion. In StrikeForce’s case, with their limited ‘star power’, they can’t afford any one of their big names to get hurt or have other plans (‘sup, Alistair?) in order to pull off 20 shows in a single year. They’ll either fall short on the numbers or have to try and market shows that make regional promotions look good. If the crap really hits the fan, both of those at the same time.
by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Dec 19, 2009 1:39 PM EST reply actions
By the 31st of Jan, they will have put on 5 shows in 3 months. If they keep up that rate thats 20 a year.
by Kefka on Dec 19, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Including the challenger shows I don’t see a problem of them hitting as many shows as they want, they won’t all have the same quality of names as say tomorrows show, but if they are free no one can really complain.
I think how often they will be doing PPV is the more interesting question, I can only think of Fedor vs. Overeem that would really have the headline fight quality too do good numbers… maybe Fedor vs. Barnett if that ever happens in Strikeforce, but what else?
by TheKeyboardWarrior on Dec 19, 2009 2:09 PM EST reply actions
If my memory serves me right:
1) Strikeforce plans 8 Challengers shows a year. That doesn’t seem like a problem
2) Strikeforce plans on 4 CBS Saturday Night Fights for the year.
3) Strikeforce plans on 4 Showtime cards.
4) Strikeforce is planning to do up to 4 ppv shows. This is probably the biggest question mark. I’m guessing they get 1 or 2 ppv attempts before the end of the next fiscal year.
Nah...
Realistic numbers:
8-10 Challengers
6-8 Showtime
2-4 CBS
1-2 PPVs
Remember, they whole point of Strikeforce’s business model is that they don’t depend on having PPV’s, like Affliction or where EliteXC was trying to get to.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Dec 19, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
You follow this more than I do, but wasn’t the plan to eventually do:
8 challenger a year plus four other events a year on Showtime (Showtime basically becomes the Challenger channel)
4 CBS cards and up to 4 payperviews, using Network TV to build up the more profitable ppv shows (obviously they won’t hit that mark their first full year out).
Eventually, they would hope to expand to 6 CBS shows alternating every month with 6 ppv events but that would be 2 or 3 years down the road.
I’m in transit hell today, so I don’t have the energy to look for confirmation.
Either way they plan on 8-10 Challengers and 10-12 other cards to be on Showtime, CBS, and ppv.
Oh, yeah, eventually. But they will lower those expectations a bit this year.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Dec 19, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yea it’s the PPV’s where they are really going to fall short. It will also be tough getting 4 CBS fights off in one year, Fedor hasn’t fought more than twice a year since 2005 and they really don’t have anyone else to headline a network event. They work real well on the level of pulling off good Showtime events but there are a lot of question marks beyond that level.
Fedor fought twice this year.
I think they’re hoping the April card will be Fedor’s last event on CBS, and that he’ll be meeting Overeem and Barnett on ppv cards later in the year. This is partly why Hendo was such a big pickup; they need to make sure they have other fighters who can help carry a CBS card (see Kimbo and Elite for what happens if you don’t). I know Hendo isn’t a main eventer by himself but pair him against Mousasi for the LHW belt after he’s beaten Shields and you’ll have a main event.
Would putting Fedor on a PPV make sense for Strikeforce?
Just wondering if it would be worth it for Strikeforce to run a PPV with Fedor on it. The chances of the PPV being a huge money maker seems slim to me. Especially considering any profit would have to be split 50/50 with M-1. I’m thinking it might make more sense to keep Fedor on CBS shows as a way to draw recognition to Strikeforce’s brand.
Also it’s not like the UFC is going to give them a free pass if Strikeforce runs a PPV. I would guess the UFC tries to run a free show on Spike or Versus up against it.
Just BE.
Fedor has been a pretty poor PPV draw
He’s more popular now, but there’s no telling how much more, or if that will translate to PPV buys (and if so, probably not to any huge degree).
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
Fedor would draw more buys now than he did with Affliction for the simple fact that Strikeforce has a TV deal and millions saw him wreck Brett Rogers on national television. Affliction tried to make do with commercials alone, and that was a failure.
Heavy.com -- Lead Staff Writer
Certainly
But how many more? And keep in mind that the other fighters on these cards have to help support that buyrate. For example— do they have any fighters more popular than Andrei Arlovski?
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
Right now? The answer is no. But if Overeem beats Arlovski, Hendo KOs Shields, Fedor murders Werdum, and Mousasi destroys his next opponent, all in front of 7 million viewers on CBS, then you potentially have several very marketable fighters.
Too many hypotheticals
I’m saying that Overeem needs at least one fight on CBS before he can properly headline a PPV against Fedor, but I have no idea how they would pull that off for a myriad of reasons.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
You got to go big blackout
They have to start thinking about ppv, if only because there is so much money at sake. What is the max CBS will pay? $4 or maybe 5 mil a show? If they can get half what the UFC averages they’ll be looking at 270,000 buys or $6.5 mil. 375,000 buys, the UFC bottom, would be $9 mil.
Fedor might draw more but not a ton more
Is he more popular now? Yes but how many of those people would now be willing to pay 50-60 bucks to see him fight.
People are willing to watch almost anything for free. Everyone thinks that the Couture/Coleman fight sucks and it probably will ( I reserve judgement until after I see the fight) but if they put it on Spike it would probably draw 6 million +.
Or Kimbo look at how well he still draws on tv. But I think if the UFC started trying to use him to headline PPV’s people wouldnt watch because where he might be fun to watch on youtube or free on Spike nobody wants to pay 50-60 dollars to watch him fight.
Now dont get me wrong I’m not trying to compare Fedor to Kimbo because talent wise a arm less and leg less Fedor could still beat Kimbo but the point was just because people will watch on free tv doesnt mean they will buy a PPV.
There is a market for Fedor fights on PPV now. How much bigger is it than the Affliction shows? I don’t know. If they promoted a Fedor-headlined PPV on CBS, during football games, etc, they could probably pull in quite a few more viewers than Affliction did. I’m not saying he’s going to pull in numbers comparable to even the lowest current UFC shows, but it would absolutely be bigger than Affliction.
Heavy.com -- Lead Staff Writer
Exactly
Affliction II did how many buys? 150,000? Now compare that to a Fedor ppv after he’s had two fights in front of 10 million total viewers, hyping it on a CBS event a month before, and running spots on CBS and Showtime to promote it. Unless the UFC goes balls to the wall to counter it, I don’t see how it does less than 250,000 buys.
Why would they promote a Strikeforce PPV on CBS football games (or CBS at all?) The only reason the CBS shows get advertised on CBS football games is because CBS does that to promote the shows. Why would CBS care to do that for a PPV? Showtime is a PPV provider but CBS network is about getting tv ratings the only reason they would run PPV ads is if they were paid to run them and those good time slots and on air mentions of the shows are expensive to buy.
No Showtime and CBS broadcasting are both owned by the CBS corperation but they are separate companies under that umbrella. CBS sports and Showtime sports are separate entities with separate budgets and separate people calling the shots. CBS corperation is something that was formed in 2005 when Sumner Redstone split Viacom into two separate groups, it’s the parent company of the 83 year old CBS broadcasting. Both networks are assets of the parent company, it’s not that one owns the other. Strikeforce being on Showtime and Strikeforce being on CBS is two separate deals with two separate companies.
Fedor fought twice this year.
Yes that is why I said “more than twice a year since 2005” :D
I don’t know if Dan Henderson can pull off headlining a CBS show (Mousasi is awesome but he’s not a draw in the states yet). This is where Strikeforce is really lagging behind, they just don’t have multiple superstars to headline all these big shows. They can run Showtime level shows and knock the socks off people but taking that next step is sort of tough for them(even with Fedor) and taking that next step 3-6 times in a year requires a stable of huge draws. Strikeforce used to do a real good job of not getting in over their heads on expectations and show cost but it really seems like they are moving too fast here. I think they should leave the PPV talk for 2011 (or 2012 even) and just concentrate on stabilizing their position and growing their market share, they need time to build some big stars and a real following if they want to jump into the PPV market and are expecting anything good to come out of it.
I don’t like the idea of PPVs, personally. The UFC has a marketing machine geared to selling PPVs, and are a much more recognised brand in that way. Strikeforce oughta look at Affliction, and stick to TV cards, IMO. Right now they could barely get enough viewers to watch their Fedor/Rogers, and more PPVs means watering down the CBS cards….
Afflictions problem was spending $6-7 million on their roster per PPV. 100k PPV was a good starting PPV buy rate but needed strong UFC PPV numbers to even hold water.
Roughly the promoter will make $11-12 profit per $44.95 PPV buy, so Affliction made roughly $1.2 million on PPV. Strikeforce has a reasonable priced roster. The goal of any initial PPV would be to break even or make a small profit. If they can put together roster that costs around $800k – $1 million and equal that 100k-125k buy rate on their first few ventures they would feel pretty good about themselves. I can’t honestly believe anyone in the industry thinks a promotion can approach UFC low end PPV without a few years building an audience and conditioning them to purchase PPVs.
Fedor himself costs them more than 1 mln $
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Any PPV would have to be a Fedor and bunch of cheap fighters or using Fedor on CBS to build up a cheaper fighter to feature in the PPV.
I can't wait to see people compare SF cards to UFC cards...
for an entire year. lol.
I'm like PacMan fightin you silly kids... throw ya Hatton the ring, and get knocked outlike Ricky did.
lol.
I hope the UFC puts on more shows.
Fighters need a place to fight. I don’t want to see anyone cutting back on shows and limiting the opportunities for fighters to earn a living in the sport. The more shows the UFC puts on the more opportunities for fighters to fight. The more fighters the UFC can give enough fights to so that they can support themselves in the sport is great in my opinion.
Just BE.
Wheres SF gettin the cash for all this?
Is a few CBS cards and the showtime cards that barely get watched giving them the money to have all these fighters and shows? Fedor wasnt cheap and Hendos not cheap to name a few and the co promotions with M1 on every big card have to hurt their revenue plus the fact they dont have the huge ppv numbers and revenue coming in the UFC has or the huge sponsorships, video games, products, etc
i dont see them able to expand unless they start doin ppvs and i doubt SF ppvs gettin high buys at all lower than Affliction even which had much much bigger names than SF
Way Way to much to fast in my opinion. I just have such a BAD feeling this is all going to equal Strike Force having a huge fire sale down the road to stay in Business and just eat its losses or worse yet going under like all the rest before them that tried going head to head with Zuffa. I really just don’t want the end result of all this being Strike Forces logo being put up on Dana’s out of Business org Tomb Stone ? But how can I not think the wosrt will happen look at where all the others are who tried going head to head with Zuffa.
AGREED.....
I am always suspect when a “promotion” in any sport tries to go from a few big events a year to bigger stars and a huge jump in events right away like this. History has always showed that it never works. You need to work your way up slowly, as with virtually anything. And I think that Coker is hedging this by signing non-exclusive contracts and cross promoting just in case it doesn’t work out. And things being the way they are. The most that any top level fighter is going to be able to manage is 3 fights per year. The majority doing 2. The numbers are not going to add up with the number of fighters they have available and that is before you count injuries which % wise are rising fast.
Strikeforce HAS been building up slowly, its just that no one cared to follow it before. They started on HDNet, moved to NBC for pay, then moved to Showtime, followed by CBS. They also have a TON of contacts with fighters due to their K-1 connections and kickboxing background. Its not like they are anything like EliteXC or Affliction. They are more comparable to KOTC going from small to big. Slowly running shows and making money in the regional scene.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Dec 19, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yea but this is a real jump from where they are now and that is what people are seeing. The fact that Strikeforce has worked a slow and steady pace up until now makes them trying to jump this far this quick out of character.
exactly 100% correct who me and thats what scares me the most. Its totaly out of character. They are going so so far away from what worked. You can tell me its not people but it seems to be the same thing all the other orgs did who are not on Dana Whits tomb stone of Org death. Sure I am happy as a pig in $hit seeing all these great fights with Strike Force and there co promotion with Dream but a year or two of watching great fights us hard cores love to see is not worth strike force going under in the end. And until a organization proves other wise I just see the same old results happening again and again which is usally one of the 3 a fire sale/ sell your org to Zuffa/ go out of Business and screw all your fighters.
yea but only one organization has ever succeded at a mainstream level and thats the UFC to most casual fans the names UFC and MMA and synonomis just like the NFL and football i really dont see SF being able to compete with the UFCs marketing machine as it simply doesnt have the resources, sure fedor and hendo and mousasi are great fighters but not big names at all and dont match up to the UFC which has both names and ppv draws and makes enough money to support its evergrowing roster
i sadly see SF joining the ranks of Affliction, Pride, Bodog etc
PPV is a terrible idea for Strikeforce
As much as we enjoy their fights, they don’t have proven, marketable, PPV selling headline talent. Hendo can’t carry a PPV (remains to be seen how popular he is after the Bisping drubbing and how it carries over to another promotion) and Fedor has proven that he doesn’t generate a lot of PPV sales (though he may be more popular after the Rogers fight, I don’t believe he’s capable of breaking 500k against he best non-UFC fighters available). The Overeem fight is not a PPV fight, though it’s a great one. Overeem will be coming in cold with no recognition with the casual MMA fan. I just don’t think it’s viable. They’ll have to put it all on Gina’s shoulders, and she’s coming off a loss to her most marketable adversary.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
It is, but if they do one mega show a year, maybe a co-promotion with K-1/DREAM (remember that FEG is coming to the U.S next year and wants to do about 3 shows), then it can be a co-promoted PPV event. Realistically, all they would need is around 100K – 200K to be considered a success for their first attempt.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Dec 19, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
One super card a year would be great
I’m with that. Even if they take a loss on it, it wouldn’t be too damaging if they manage to profit on Showtime and CBS.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
Also
I’m saying that it probably wouldn’t be good business, but I’d order a dozen if they did a dozen.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
First ppv show should definitely be a Dream/Strikeforce event. I know Dream has done early afternoon shows, but I believe Pride has done noon shows and the Mike Tyson’s fight in Tokyo was also noon broadcast, which means they could hold it in Japan, airing it at noon in Tokyo and 10PM ET/ 7PM PT in the US. This means Dream would help with a lof of the production costs while also sharing the burden of payroll. This is would not only save Strikeforce a lot of money but would also blunt any damage done by the UFC – Strikeforce wouldn’t be risking nearly as much.
In addition if they could get Aoki and Overeem on CBS before then, and introduce them to millions of Americans they could have some huge potential as draws. Think of a card with:
Fedor vs. Overeem for the HW belt
Mousasi vs. MW champ Dan Henderson for the LHW belt
Roger Huerta (we’re dreaming remember) vs. Aoki for the LW belt
Plus maybe Bobby Lashley vs, Arlovski or a rematch of Gomi vs. Diaz or Mayhem vs, Jacare (we’ve waited long enough)
Now what would it cost for the UFC to counter that? Who would they have to book to make sure Strikeforce loses money, which would probably mean below 150,000 buys?
I think PPV is only an option after at least 1 or 2 more CBS show. After Fedor and Mousasi have had a chance to build on their last wins, Aoki and Overeem have been introduced to American audiences, and Hendo has be re-introduced as a Strikeforce fighter (ending our national nightmare that is Jake Shields), all in front of millions of tv watchers, then we can starting thinking ppv.
Sure FEG will be lucky to be in business next year themself in Japan let alone doing shows in the U.S. Also Who is going to buy these Mega Dream/Strike Force shows on PPV ? Hard Core fans like us and we don’t equal $hit in PPV sales which has been proven already. No one in America knows who these Dram fighters are but us the Casual fans could care less about watching any fighters from Japan.
Of Course
of course he will succeed, fucker is making all the right moves…the evil empire will fall…or at least open up its gates to other promotions!
They won’t overtake the evil empire. They may be a viable alternative, and I hope they are and remain that way for a long time. As long as there isn’t a fighter’s union, then the UFC needs competition. Once there is a fighter’s union we can see an NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB esk control and have other promotions be the minor leagues. Thats my prefered outcome. Tat way all the world’s best can be in one stable and we figure out all the best of the best no “Man Aoki would beat Penn” bullshit that we can never prove wrong. no “Lesnar will tear Fedor;s head off” and we’ll never know bullshit.
We need everyone under one stable, and then the precautions taken for the fighters, similarly to other sports athletes, to ensure they arent taken advantage of.
Even a broken clock is right two times a day.
It will be interesting to see the PPV draw for one of their big shows vs. the numbers they did on CBS. Of course I wouldn’t expect them to get the same amount of buys as they do viewers on a network channel; but I wonder if Fedor, Henderson and the couple other names they have will be big enough to do average UFC type PPV numbers.
"A champion is someone who gets up when he can't." - Jack Dempsey
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