Strikeforce Evolution Preview: Can Scott Smith Counter the Kicking Prowess of Cung Le?

The main event bout on Saturday night at Strikeforce: Evolution will pit Vietnamese-born Sanshou fighter and former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Cung Le (6-0) against former UFC and EliteXC power puncher Scott Smith (16-6) who is probably best known for his miraculous knockout victory over Pete Sell at The Ultimate Fighter Season 4 Finale back in November of 2006. This will be Le's first bout following his win over Frank Shamrock in March of 2008 to attain the Strikeforce Middleweight belt. He vacated the belt on September 17th, 2009 due to his film career, and Jake Shields promptly won the title on November 7th in a five-round decision win over Jason "Mayhem" Miller. Smith enters the contest after being submitted by Nick Diaz in the third round of their match-up back in June. Smith's two previous bouts ended in knockout fashion with wins over Benji Radach and Terry Martin.

There isn't any mystery in what Scott Coker was thinking when this fight was in the works. Strikeforce has made it apparent that entertaining match-ups will be one of their major focal points when putting together great cards, and Cung Le vs. Scott Smith has the makings of being a brutal striking battle. Both men have very limited ground abilities and submission knowledge, and both men have a propensity to go for the knockout. It should, at the very least, be a fight that ends in dramatic fashion if either man happens to catch his opponent.

We have to really delve into the technical aspects of each fighter's skill-set to get a sense of how this fight might play out. While both men have solid striking ability that can produce knockouts, Cung Le seems to be much more knowledgeable in the takedown game than Smith. Kid Nate's piece on Cung Le's Sanshou takedowns takes a closer look at the set-ups and ways in which Cung is able to put his opponents in bad positions, but Cung will have a much harder time in trying to execute those types of takedowns against better competition. Furthermore, Cung's submission abilities would need to improve in order for him to take full advantage of Smith's weakness on the ground.

Interestingly enough, Cung could improve enough to give Smith problems on the floor. Smith's skill on the ground isn't something that can't be overcome with some solid training, but I would imagine Cung will want to try to use his stand-up game to create opportunity in that arena.

Le's striking is one of the more dynamic stand-up games you'll see in mixed martial arts. While he isn't completely invulnerable to attack by any means, his offensive weapons are vast. Side kicks, front kicks, heavy head kicks, body kicks, spinning kicks and leg kicks continually batter opponents over the course of a fight, and it sets up his hands well. He also happens to have extensive training in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, and he's attained a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

But enough of the Cung Le lovefest. Scott Smith isn't going to roll over and die over a bunch of hype surrounding such a vaunted striker. Smith's calling card comes from his devastating power in his hands, and he's well-known for exhibiting "tough as nails" performances as evident in his performances against Pete Sell and Robbie Lawler. If Smith can connect with Le's chin in one exchange, it could spell lights out fo Cung Le. He should have a slight advantage in the "boxing" department if he can somehow take Le's kicks out of the equation, but his countering ability will need to be the major focus of his training camp. If he can block and counter Cung's kicks, he has a legitimate shot at an upset win.

This fight really comes down to whether or not you want to take a chance on the "unpredictability" factor of MMA. We can stand around picking fights here and there, but there will always be a few fights that simply didn't go as expected. From an analysis perspective, Cung Le has the advantage in this fight. He has a much more dynamic striking game, some good takedown techniques, and provides a lot of power to damage his opponents. Smith simply produces enough power to endanger anyone he comes in contact with, but his technical abilities aren't superior to Le's prowess in the striking department.

I'll bank on Cung Le winning this fight as he has more advantages than Smith, but Smith is a real threat to Cung Le's chin. If he has learned to counter Cung Le's kicks with explosive punching, it'll be a short night for Cung Le.