2010: A Year Without A Title Change?
by E. Spencer Kyte on Dec 14, 2009 2:14 PM EST
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PrintAfter watching BJ Penn dominate another "toughest challenge yet" on Saturday night, it became undeniable that "The Prodigy" is without equal in the UFC Lightweight division, and that doesn't look as if it will change any time soon.
Penn's position at 155 pounds is similar to those of arch enemy Georges St-Pierre at welterweight and Anderson Silva at middleweight, where the champions sit atop divisions they have effectively cleaned out of contenders.
With 60% of the UFC titles in the hands of truly dominant forces, my latest article at heavy.com follows the course of the titular question above from the perspective of both the UFC and the fans.
For the UFC:
Despite the hard sell the UFC consistently and understandably delivers with each instalment of the UFC Countdown series, they are starting to feel a little disingenuous and there is little the company can do to remedy things.
Though there is always the possibility of a Matt Serra-type upset, the hype and praise heaped onto Sanchez felt forced before hand, and looks worse in the wake of Saturday’s destruction at the hands of BJ Penn.
For the Fans:
As fans, the situation is a Catch-22: while we’re getting to watch some of the best fighters in the history of the sport dominate their respective divisions, the title fights we normally turn to for suspense and intrigue are becoming foregone conclusions.
Ultimately, the real question that needs answering may not be whether or not a title will change hands in 2010, but how fight fans would feel about such a situation?
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Just because the outcome of a contest is expected
that doesn’t mean we won’t enjoy watching the sport. Some of us watch sports for the sport itself, not for the drama (manufactured or otherwise).
That, and I’m a huge GSP fan, so I’d happily watch him destroy guys who are no threat to him.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Alright here is my guess. Bj and Anderson will remain champs all year. Brock Im not so sure about but sad to say i wouldn’t be surprised. Im gonna be the guy everyone disagrees with and go with a Dan Hardy left hook belt switch. I really believe without a doubt that shogun will get the lhw belt and he could be very dominant but lhw is a shark tank as always, really looking forward to the future of the lhw division.
Well, we can’t have it both ways. More people express distaste when a title changes hands continually. I’m a fan of boss-fights, with contenders coming in as seeming underdogs and trying to overcome the odds. I would never miss a GSP, BJ or Anderson fight and just because the contenders to their titles are not on their plane of greatness doesn’t effect my want of witnessing that greatness. These are historical figures in our sport’s history that I will always exhibit pride in having viewed in all their glory.
For me, this sort of talk always occurs in wake of a dominant title defense, but let’s face it— there are always contenders and there are always marketable fights. We can’t fault the UFC and these fighters for being exceptional at their art.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
I find it funny how no one seems to have problems watching Fedor face guys who are hopelessly outmatched, but it suddenly becomes a problem when Penn/GSP/Anderson face guys who are hopelessly outmatched. Just sit back and enjoy watching some of the all-time greats do their thing. Boxing managed to do a pretty brisk business during the Tyson era, there is no reason that MMA can’t repeat that success with dominant champions at the helm.
Also, let’s not forget that Lyoto Machida barely squeaked out a controversial decision in his last fight, even though all the pre-fight punditry claimed that Shogun was hopelessly outmatched. Or who can forget the invincible Urijah Faber getting KTFO by Mike Brown. Or Frank Mir’s bestest buddy Miguel Torres getting knocked senseless by Brian Bowles. Sometimes even the most cynical of fans gets sucked into the hype and start to believe that guys are unbeatable when they are anything but.
Not only do I think that UFC titles will change hands in 2010, I’ll bet that at least one of Fedor/Anderson/GSP/BJ winds up on the losing end of a shocking upset.
“I find it funny how no one seems to have problems watching Fedor face guys who are hopelessly outmatched”
When did this happen? I must have been absent that day because there were a ton of people bitching about him fighting Rogers.
The only thing Jon Jones does better than Matt Hamill is hear.
(And smash faces)
by ufc4 on Dec 14, 2009 3:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
BJ Penn, GSP and Anderson Silva will not be losing their belts this year. Its worth an outside bet, but it ain’t happening.
LHW is a suprisingly stacked division, and I think Machida is going to have a tough time. Considering he’s fit and healthy, he could potentially defend the belt 2-3 times in 2010. Without knowing what Machida and Rua are doing to come out stronger next time, I would say at this point that fight is a coin-flip.
I fully expect Brock Lesnar to duck a lot of competition, because he knows he is going to get defeated pretty darn soon. He’s no longer the wild card – freak show he was, he’s a fighter with average stand-up, good takedowns, ground and pound and nothing else. Anyone who can stuff the takedowns and can keep the fight standing can win. I think Carwin, Velasquez, Nog and Mir can all defeat him if they use a good game plan.
Anyone who can stuff the takedowns and can keep the fight standing can win. I think Carwin, Velasquez, Nog and Mir can all defeat him if they use a good game plan.
Do you actually watch any UFC fights? The ONLY shot Nog or Velasquez would have against Brock would be on the ground, do you actually think Cain Velasquez could beat Brock Lesnar on his feet?
The only thing Jon Jones does better than Matt Hamill is hear.
(And smash faces)
i actually disagree with that in all of his 5 fights we’ve barely ever seen lesnar stand and trade with anyone
sure he knocked down randy then finished him but mir stunned him briefly in the second fight and if someone could keep the fight up i think they could expose some possible holes brock may have in his striking game
I like domination
I enjoy the fact that I am able to witness Penn, St. Pierre and Silva fight. Greats consistently delivering greatness is more often than not taken for granted, only to be fully appreciated once they are long gone.
People need drama, like struggle and love the underdog.
I am. I think. I will. - Ayn Rand
There’s a good chance that would happen. I forgot where I read it, (MMAFanhouse?) but ther was an article somewhere on the internets saying that there’s only been 8 title fights in the UFC in 2009. Hopefully this coming year we’ll see 10 or more.
I think we’ll see a change. So long as there’s competitive fights it doesn’t really matter, and hopefully 2 defences a year by most champs I’ll be happy. The UFC could stand to have some guys they can really market hard. They were clearly happy to have gained what they thought was an invincible champ in machida…
I’m curious to see what the odds’ll be on GSP-Hardy…
Some math for you
Assume that each champ in each fight is a -900 favorite.
The odds of three champions, fighting three times in a year, winning ALL their fights:
38.74%
The odds of ALL five, fighting three times a year, winning ALL their fights:
20.59%
And those are some extremely favorable assumptions.
In summary, statistics and the laws of probability simply do not point towards a high likelihood of all five champions running the table.
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