Mir mentally not ready, Diego is...My UFC 107 Preview and Predictions
by NCSAR on Dec 12, 2009 2:15 PM EST
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PrintProdigy. One word defined as having extraordinary talent at a young age. In a MMA dictionary it refers to one incredible fighter that has made a living out of submitting top talent time and time again. Tonight Penn will lay his title on the line against Diego Sanchez, arguably his toughest test at 155 to date. Strap on tight, here is the preview and predictions for UFC 107.
Here is the link for the full preview and prediction
The Memphis Grizzlies of the NBA could use someone like Struve. His hight would be a great addition to one of the worst teams in the league…Unfortunately he is stepping into the cage and not onto the hardwood! Tonight he will be taking on a tough opponent in Paul Buentello. This is his UFC return. He last fought in the cage in 2006 and has a record of 3-4 in the UFC.
Prediction: Struve is improving with every day, his height is nothing more than an incredible took at his disposal. If he uses his length in this one, he could be in for a great night. Combine that with the nerves and emotion of making a return to the UFC after 3 years… Things are looking up for Struve. The tree will not be chopped on this night.
Struve by TKO
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida:
The most exciting fighter in the UFC (outside of the cage) is Clay Guida. His entrance gets you pumped! He always has a smile and has a never ending flow of energy. The operative statement… Outside of the cage. If you could take his heart and determination and put it into a hand full of other fighters, they would be the greatest of all time! Unfortunately Clay’s skill set does not equal the competitive level at which he is fighting.
Kenny Florian was supposed to be the guy to finally challenge Baby J. Not so much! His loss to Penn was lost in the Anderson Silva demolition of Forrest Griffin. Ken-Flo is still one of the best in the division, but Penn is on top of this mountain (more later).
Prediction: I love Clay Guida. He is everything that the hardcore MMA fan loves, but like I said earlier… He just can’t fight with the likes of Penn, Florian, Sanchez or whatever you consider to be the top 3 in this division. This is going to be exciting, but Kenny will take it.
Florian by unanimous decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce:
Jon Fitch is back. His name became household when he stepped up against the Canadian Superstar GSP. He wasn’t able to pull off the stunning upset, but he is still one of the best fighters in the world. Don’t believe me? His 10-1 record in the UFC agrees with me. He has won two in a row and another win will get him back into title contention.
Pierce on the other hand is the relative unknown underdog. His latest win against Brock Larson got Larson the UFC boot and earned him a huge shot at a true contender. Let’s be honest a win by Pierce is as likely as Tim Tebow winning this year’s Heisman (and he wont).
Prediction: Do you own a trampoline? Pierce is going to be Fight’s. A highlight win here gets Jon back into title contention and a possible shot at Matt Hughes in the spring.
Fitch by TKO (Highlight reel)
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce:
Jon Fitch is back. His name became household when he stepped up against the Canadian Superstar GSP. He wasn’t able to pull off the stunning upset, but he is still one of the best fighters in the world. Don’t believe me? His 10-1 record in the UFC agrees with me. He has won two in a row and another win will get him back into title contention.
Pierce on the other hand is the relative unknown underdog. His latest win against Brock Larson got Larson the UFC boot and earned him a huge shot at a true contender. Let’s be honest a win by Pierce is as likely as Tim Tebow winning this year’s Heisman (and he wont).
Prediction: Do you own a trampoline? Pierce is going to be Fight’s. A highlight win here gets Jon back into title contention and a possible shot at Matt Hughes in the spring.
Fitch by TKO (Highlight reel)
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo:
Have you ever wanted something so bad that it takes control of your life? Putting yourself in a sense of tunnel vision until you get it? We very well could be seeing this with Frank Mir! All you hear from the heavyweight contender is Brock Lesnar this and Lesnar that. He may get a rubber match with the champ in 2010, but only if he can win fights like this. This is a very dangerous fight for what could be an unfocused Frank Mir.
Kongo is a beast. One of those that you would cross the street before passing on the sidewalk. This is a huge fight for him! The door is beyond wide open for him to take advantage of Mir. A lot of people may not agree with me, but this is a very winnable fight for Kongo. Two reasons…One you already know (Mir’s mental game). The second is that Mir may have an unwarranted faith in his hands after he picked a part Nog. Standing with Kongo could be bad for Frank. If he does he may never get the chance to fight Brock Lasnar because he will be going down the mountain instead of up it.
Prediction: If this one goes to the ground then it is good night for Kongo. Mir has top level jits and would take advantage of any limb left loos. That being said, Mir has been training every minute of everyday for Brock Lesnar. He is fighting Kongo, and one kick to the face could equal nighty night.
Kongo by TKO
B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez:
This could be the toughest competition that Penn has faced in the 155 pound division. Since his loss to Matt Hughes in 2006 Penn has been on a tear. Losing only to GSP in a bout not in this weight class. He has defeated the likes of Kenny Florian, Sean Sherk, Jens Pulver, and Joe Stevenson in one of the most dominating championship runs in the history of the UFC. Every one of those fighters could have gave Penn fits, but he has been nothing but untouchable in this division. I will put it this way. I am not a Penn fan at all, but if there was no Anderson, Fedor, or GSP, Penn would be the hands down favorite for the P4P best fighter in the world.
Diego Sanchez has been around the block for awhile now. A member of the original TUF class, he has only lost twice in the past four years. Those losses were against Koscheck and John Fitch. Take AKA out of the mix, then he is undefeated… Diego’s transition to the Ribero camp could prove to be the difference in this one. Arguably the best jits camp in the word, they may have an answer for Penn’s viscous ground game.
I have picked against Penn in his last four fights at 55. I have been 0-4 in those predictions. The Prodigy is truly one of the greatest fighters ever, but I still can’t call him a favorite. He has always been portrayed as the guy who didn’t train properly, had terrible cardio, and could be great but isn’t… Penn may have turned that corner. He has been all but unbeatable at 155 and a win here puts him in rare-ified air among the best ever.
Prediction: Like I said, I have picked against Penn until I am blue in the face. I want Diego to win, but I am going to pick against him. I feel that Penn’s jab could keep him on his heels, and that is noth the place he wants to be. This fight will hit the ground, and when it does we will see just how good Diego is. This could be a closer fight than a lot expect, but Penn should be able to get the victory, Diego will get excited and make a mistake, resulting in a Penn submission.
Penn by submission.
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am i reading this right?
jon fitch getting a shot at matt hughes? i think hughes would be lucky to get a shot at fitch!
i agree with your picks tho! except i think mir will sub kongo
The only bone I have to pick with this
is that there is no real technical analysis in here. You talk about the fighters and their abilities/ accomplishments/ mental states, but there’s no real stylistic breakdown here.
For example, in the Pierce/ Fitch prediction:
Jon Fitch is back. His name became household when he stepped up against the Canadian Superstar GSP. He wasn’t able to pull off the stunning upset, but he is still one of the best fighters in the world. Don’t believe me? His 10-1 record in the UFC agrees with me. He has won two in a row and another win will get him back into title contention.
Pierce on the other hand is the relative unknown underdog. His latest win against Brock Larson got Larson the UFC boot and earned him a huge shot at a true contender. Let’s be honest a win by Pierce is as likely as Tim Tebow winning this year’s Heisman (and he wont).
Prediction: Do you own a trampoline? Pierce is going to be Fight’s. A highlight win here gets Jon back into title contention and a possible shot at Matt Hughes in the spring.
Fitch by TKO (Highlight reel)
Why exactly is Fitch going to win by highlight reel stoppage? Mike’s only been defeated once, and hasn’t ever been stopped. Fitch isn’t exactly a finishing machine, and if he does finish Pierce, most would contend that it’ll be by submission (as 3 of Jon’s 4 UFC finishes were by sub).
If you break it down, phase by phase, skill for skill, it would look something like this:
Wrestling- Pierce is an offensive wrestling powerhouse, with a powerful build and explosive takedowns; Fitch, on the other hand is very technical and relentless with his takedowns, and finishes nearly all of them. Fitch has been outwrestled before (by GSP), but Pierce’s pure wrestling is nowhere near the level of St Pierres, not to even mention the ability to blend striking with takedowns. Relatively even, but a slight edge to Fitch in the wrestling department
Striking (distance & clinch)- While Pierce has power in his hands (game changing power, at that- just watch his WEC fight w/ Justin Haskins), his striking is nascent and sloppy, whereas Fitch has the more varied, clean striking (with less power, granted), as well as a NASTY clinch striking/ dirty boxing game, which compliments his takedowns very well. Advantage- Fitch
Jiu Jitsu- Not even really that much of a question, Fitch has a mean top game w/ great guard passing, GnP, and top control submissions (namely the RNC); he also has showed an active enough guard that Pierce can’t be complacent if he gains top position- he KO’d Alves with upkicks from his back. Pierce on the other hand, while strong and possessing adequate submission defense, was unable to do anything to Larson (who isn’t exactly known for his guard)- including any kind of meaningful striking on the ground, or guard passes. He spent the entirety of the fight fending off Larson’s sub attempts. BIG advantage to Fitch here.
All in all, Fitch outclasses Pierce here. While a good prospect and a physical specimen, Mike is unrefined and still quite 1 dimensional, and the multifaceted game that Jon brings will overwhelm Pierce. He’ll have to work for it, but I see a clear cut Fitch UD here, wouldn’t be completely surprised by a sub/ (T)KO if he decides to pour it on, but Fitch is generally more methodical and cerebral than to blow his load
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture FTMFW.
'09 is the year of the FW's.
Not 1 prediction was right or even close.
Buentello almost KO’d Struve when he attempted that flying knee.
Pierce almost KO’d Fitch in the last few seconds of the 3rd.
Guida had no chance.
Mir the Jiu Jitsu guy dropped Kongo the Striker with a left (as shown above)
And Penn could of easily finished the fight every single round, but decided to keep toying with Sanchez.
"Well... You're damned if you do, and You're damned if you don't."- Bart Simpson
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