UFC 107 Preview: Can B.J. Penn Defeat the Relentless Pace of Diego Sanchez?

I liked your assessment. It was balanced unlike other articles on this site assessing this match.

Sanchez should lose this fight more often than he wins it. That said, at the current odds I’d suggest a moderate play on Sanchez.

I think Diego’s clinch game is being underrated — He looked very good in the clinch aginst a much bigger, stronger John Fitch; he more than held his own against Fitch and kept Fitch pressed up against the cage (and took him down) in the first round. It’s also possible, and hardly inconceivable, that Diego could grind out a decision a la couture by simply pressing BJ against the fence and kneeing his legs into oblivion. I’m not sure how BJ would stop that. (He allowed KFlo to keep him pinned against the cage (albeit to little effect) in their fight.) I don’t think DS will opt for that strategy however, simply because it really is almost shamefully boring.

BJ’s take down defense is amazing but may be a tad overrated, primarily because people seem to in part god like qualities to it. He has phenomenal balance and is extremely flexible which makes single leg take downs very difficult to finish. However GSP had a lot of success with the safest, most difficult to finish (in MMA) take downs around — a single leg take down where you grab your opponents leg and don’t lift but rather try to power through or trip your opponent. That single leg take down is perhaps the easiest take down to defend against (and this more than anything else accounts for Penn’s ability to keep the fight standing against GSP in the first round). If Diego is smart he should be able to have some success taking Penn down with modified high crotch take downs where instead of switching to the double he lifts and slams Penn after securing Penn’s leg (something which is very easy to do when you’re against the cage with Penn because of how he defends against knees). Diego was able to use this takedown successfully in the first round against Fitch, who was doing his best to defend the take down but was ultimately unsuccessful (even though Fitch probably outweighed diego by 10 to 15 lbs). If he can take down a much larger, stronger fighter, who’s also a good wrestler, I’m predicting he can take BJ down at least once or twice.

Diego is also excellent in scrambles. In the Gomi fight, Penn twice wound up on his back against Gomi from scrambles. This sort of ability is difficult to quantify and assess; nevertheless, Diego seems to have the edge here.

Diego’s chin is also phenomenal and seems to match Penn’s in granite / bone density. Diego was never wobbled despite having taken several hard blows from Kos (when he was extremely ill to boot) and I believe has never been wobbled. Penn has little chance of finishing this on his feet or even knocking down Diego. I don’t think enough has been made of this fact. I think Penn has decent power and a nice right uppercut but he doesn’t not nearly have Kos’s power.

Penn’s offensive wrestling is very good when he uses it becuase he sets up his takedowns well and uses them so infrequently that they catch people off card when he goes for them. Nevertheless I do not seem him dumping Sanchez on his back like he did to Florian. Whatever BJ’s cardio is these days, nothing is more terrifying to someone with somewhat questionable cardio than the thought that your double leg takedown might be stuffed. (Missing a take down is physically and mentally exhausting.) (Note that I believe BJ questions his own cardio, whether it is in fact suspect or not. E.g., I found it odd in the KFlo fight that it his corner had to reassure BJ in the third round that he was in shape “to do this” or something to that effect, given that BJ’s cardio isn’t seen as an issue at LW.) As a result, I don’t expect BJ to shoot on Diego past the second round, so his wrestling isn’t going to come into play.

Sanchez also arguably trains with the best BJJ practitioners in the world (the Ribeiros — you can definitely argue that Xande is the best at present). There is no position BJ can put Sanchez in that (I’m speculating slightly) that better BJJ practitioners haven’t put him in. I don’t think he’ll sub him unless he already has him hurt.

Nevertheless as stated at the outset Penn should win more often than not for reasons that his droves of adoring fans have detailed ad nauseum (so I won’t repeat them here), but I think a moderate sized play at the current odds on DS is in order.

Diego by TKO. A lot of people are going to be suprised, BJ wont be able to handle Diego’s damage output.

After a lengthy discussion with the authorities, assault charges will be dropped against BJ Penn.

There should be no other prediction.