Dave Meltzer: UFC 104 Trending Toward 475,000 Buys

by Michael Rome on Nov 6, 2009 7:23 PM EST in News Comment 23 comments

In this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required), Dave Meltzer reported that updated trending data since his original report suggests UFC 104 did better than expected, clocking in around 475,000 buys. If the number holds up, it's a very strong showing for a show with no co-main event and a feature bout between Brazilians.

The show supposedly did very well in Los Angeles, which is not surprising considering the huge media push in L.A. They weren't able to convince a lot of people to buy 300 dollar tickets, but they convinced a lot of people to buy a 50 dollar show.

The time between shows clearly affects pay per view numbers; there have now been a number of shows that smashed expectations because they came more than a full month after the last pay per view. This is something to watch if the January 2nd show doesn't get a bigger top fight.

Finally, and most importantly, it's great news for Lyoto Machida, who in his second fight as champion is already a stronger draw than Anderson Silva is three years into his title reign. The rematch should do very strong numbers if and when it happens.

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1 Lyoto Machida can speak english
2 Anderson Silva does not speak english

Keep firing Assholes!

I am the King of Rome, and am above grammar. -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor

by Ubernoober on Nov 6, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

You wouldn’t think it’s that simple, but it is.

"It ain't over till it's over." - Yogi Berra

by 49er16 on Nov 6, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fight fans like effort

even if it’s just an effort to develop a rapport.

by asa on Nov 6, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont think its that simple

I think it more has to do with personality than anything else. Machida has really opened up to the fans where Silva never really has.

Same reason why guys like Wand and Liddell were so popular is they really enjoyed the fans and how they cheered them.

by bigdmmafan on Nov 6, 2009 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lyoto speaks English, but it’s very robotic and halting English.

It’s pretty unfathomable to me that Lyoto’s PPV numbers are bigger than Anderson Silva’s. I’d like to do an analysis of the cards, the situations, etc, but I just cannot imagine that Lyoto would be a bigger draw for non-hardcore fans – which like independents in political races are the group that really changes things in viewership measurements – than Anderson.

by Numbers on Nov 6, 2009 7:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It doesn’t matter how amazing a fighter Anderson is. He doesn’t bother to open up to fans. So what if Machida’s English isn’t all that great? It’s the effort that counts. Plus, Machida hasn’t screwed over fans by throwing childish tantrums in the cage.

I love me some Sexyama!

by pud333 on Nov 7, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Machida = LHW, Silva = MW

Middleweight has always been a nubs division. Rich Franklin was always the weak link in the old Arlovski-Liddell-Franklin-Hughes lineup too.
LHW is the marquee division in the UFC from the days of Frank Shamrock and Tito Ortiz all the way until the emergence of BROCKLESNAR.

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Nov 6, 2009 7:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lets not forget Shogun

It wasn’t just Lyoto in the main event that drew. Anderson is fighting Leites and Cote and Lyoto gets Shogun. Lyoto had some help.

by swells2048 on Nov 6, 2009 8:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You could argue that Liddell had some unmarketable title challengers also… Jeremy Horn, Babalu Sobral. But Liddell was enough of a draw that he could still sell a show regardless.

Point is… it isn’t all who your opponents are. Anderson Silva is just not a draw, sadly. To top it all off, I think his destruction of Griffin was the perfect thing to build momentum off of. Instead we get Soares trying to delay and wait for the perfect card to fight on next. Any momentum is lost and I think it’s done more harm than good.

www.tapology.com | twitter.com/tapology

by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree fully and i believe that henderson has done the same. Both were on the fence draws and both just scored amazing knock outs over well known fighters boith TUF wilnners and then they fade off into obsecurity.

by Riley_96 on Nov 6, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn’t trying to say that Anderson is bigger draw than Machida just noting that it very well could have been Rua getting the sales. But I think it was a combination of the two.

by swells2048 on Nov 6, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well… our first version of a PPV prediction model @tapology was very high… 730,000. That proved to be a bit ridiculous. But maybe with some tweaking we are on to something.

The model freaked out and gave a huge boost based on the buzz surrounding Machida’s last fight against Rashad. Maybe we just need to tell it to only give a moderate boost, not a huge boost, in situations like that.

www.tapology.com | twitter.com/tapology

by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have to applaud

your bravery to try to predict the future and put your predictions out there. Keep honing that formula!

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Nov 6, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Machida ppv numbers

Another thing to keep in mind is that his previous three fights before becoming champ he was shown on three very big shows (79, 84, and 94) which drew a ton of buys. The UFC set him up for success by featuring him on shows with GSP, Chuck, Wandy, and BJ.

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 8:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

maybe more luck than anything else… when he was in his “boring” era it didn’t seem they knew what they wanted to do with the guy

www.tapology.com | twitter.com/tapology

by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well those 3 “boring” fights included a 2nd round sub against the hottest prospect in the UFC at the time, an exciting fight with Tito Ortiz that drew huge applause when it was over, and a highlight reel KO at the end of the first round.

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah… i put boring in quotes because that’s how he was thought of back then, by the ufc in particular. not because i’m personally saying he’s boring

www.tapology.com | @tapology

by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Understood, I was just saying that to point out the fact that those 3 fights could very well have helped build his fan base because they were all quite entertaining.

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe you have a point there maybe Andy was rushed to the title. I mean he beat Leben then right to the title. the problem is as a champion andy is expected to carry a card on his own or at least be able to headline with a Cain/rothwell type main event and draw, but he was rushed tpo the title before any one knew him. Now with him as a champion at middle weight if he fights in that division its got to be a title fight and has to be a main event (unless its a ufc special event such as 100 was) and now he knows that he isnt a draw and wants to fight out of his division, which wouldent be a problem only his buddy is the champ in the division that he likes to fight in

by Riley_96 on Nov 6, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they expected him to beat Franklin

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Nov 6, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

andy was on a PPV with tito before too with another title fight on top. (i thnk it was stacked but i could be worng

by Riley_96 on Nov 6, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but that card only got 425,000 buys, the 3 I referenced that Machida was on got 700,000, 475,000, and 800,000.

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I called 450,000 so for once one of my predicitions this year actually came through watch me strike out on everything else in these next 2 months. Also can we now stop with the glume and doom stuff, it’s clear that the UFC know what they are doing the number don’t lie so everyone can know breathe and focus on what’s important the fights.

by Raker on Nov 7, 2009 1:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs