Dan Henderson: Enormous Benefit To Strikeforce Has Parallels in World of Wrestling

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 9:48 AM EST Comment 99 comments

Yesterday, I said Dan Henderson was in the driver's seat in negotiations with the UFC and Strikeforce. It seems, after making a few calls, that he actually hopped in the car Monday and started making the long drive from Zuffa's Las Vegas headquarters to San Jose, California, home of the fledgling Strikeforce promotion. I make the case today at Heavy.com that Henderson has enormous value to Strikeforce, offering them more than he can the UFC.

If that's the case, this would be a tremendous coup for the growing promotion out of San Jose, California. Dan Henderson has tremendous value to Strikeforce. They need to build their own stable of fighters, and what better way to do so than have them beat a recognizable face? Henderson is not Tim Sylvia or Andrei Arlovski. They both left the UFC after seeing their star diminish in the cage. Henderson is different. He coached The Ultimate Fighter this year. He knocked out Michael Bisping in devastating fashion this year. He's never been hotter; and may never be again. This is a perfect chance to have him fight Gegard Mousasiand transfer some hard earned credibility to a fighter people don't yet know, but will. Mousasi, who will battle PRIDE and UFC veteran Rameau Sokoudjou Saturday on CBS, is one of the world's best prospects. He could benefit enormously from a fight with Henderson. A win immediately catapults him into the discussion of top light heavyweight fighters. That's what Henderson brings with him. Guys like this, even if they are a little more expensive than you'd like, lend your promotion credibility. It saves years you would spend earning it on your own. Import it from UFC whenever and however you can.

The brewing battle between Strikeforce and the UFC has plenty of parallels to another famous promotional battle, one that went down in the 1990's between WCW and the WWF (now WWE). More on that angle and exclusive interviews and commentary this weekend from Chicago at Heavy.com

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Henderson is an asset but he's an overpriced asset at this point

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by Kid Nate on Nov 6, 2009 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

benefit to ufc and hendo.

here is why. People dont think hendo is a draw? ok, fine. I do, but anyway. He headlines next time on cbs vs gegard or jake shields whoever. Hendo is better than them, Compare the competition the 3 of them have faced the last 3 fights. I dont care that dan is 40, couture was 40 once too right, Him and dan are similiar in when they started their careers later and have an olympic caliber wrestling background. After Hendo wins on CBS infront of 2 million homes on a Sat night. Dana will pay him more. I really hope so.

by mid.vill.queens on Nov 6, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They would be crazy to over pay for Henderson.

"It ain't over till it's over." - Yogi Berra

by 49er16 on Nov 6, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dan Henderson has tremendous value to Strikeforce. They need to build their own stable of fighters, and what better way to do so than have them beat a recognizable face?

I said it yesterday, and say it again today – I think you are highly over-valuing Henderson. If Strikeforce did sign Henderson for his asking price, then the winners are Henderson and the UFC, not Strikeforce.

A 39 year old, 3-2 one trick pony who is (to be generous) somewhat recognizable to casuals is nothing to build a future on. It’s like starting your new home with rotting lumber for a foundation – and overpriced rotting lumbar at that.

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Nov 6, 2009 10:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I’m not understanding this whole line of thinking in these posts. He’s old, and he can be methodically boring to watch against guys who try to stay away from his power and wrestle. Sure, he’ll beat them, but it isn’t exactly the explosive win that was Michael Bisping. At 39 years old, he is WAY overpriced right now. He’s looking for this huge payday that passed him by years ago.

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by Leland Roling on Nov 6, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No one is suggesting that you build around Henderson. I expect he would lose to Mousasi at this point of his career. Regardless, he elevates the perception of your company by his mere presence.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i see some faults with this line of thinking. if gegard beats dan? casuals will see a 40(plus) year old ex-ufc fighter beaten by a relatively unknown “foreign guy”. i doubt that dan will come cheap, so strikeforce is spending some decent cash to elevate gegard?

if they wanted to do that, they shouldve made his fight saturday for the lhw strap. i understand that bringing in someone of dans caliber makes your promotion more legitimate, but you have to do it right.

and what if dan beats gegard, or worse dominates/ko’s him? this is the problem that promotions have when taking on the ufc. if brock/gsp/penn etc suffers a defeat as champion, it doesnt kill the promotion, it actually sets up even more matches.

by sadface on Nov 6, 2009 3:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

If Mousasi beats Sokodjou then Henderson, SF is stuck with Mousasi and no other credible LHWs he hasn’t already beaten.

by bigweeze on Nov 6, 2009 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That’s a BS argument.

When Gegard beat Babalu there was nobody left for him to fight, so they went out and signed Soko. Now they are looking at signing Hendo. In six months, they might be signing Ricardo Arona, or King Mo, or the UFC might cut somebody loose. Hell, maybe Feijao puts up two monster KOs in a row and brings himself back into contender status.

Strikeforce will continue to go out and find opponents until they can build a contender from within. There is so much turnover in MMA that there is almost always someone who becomes available. They’ll continue to find decent competition for Mousasi.

by Steve4192 on Nov 6, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re right in that there are guys he can fight, but the situation doesn’t resolve itself very well if Mousasi keeps winning unless they start adding more fighters to the roster now and start building them.

There just aren’t a whole lot of guys you can pick up off the FA pile who can credibly fight for the title immediately.

by bigweeze on Nov 6, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you suggesting they just have Mousasi not fight? I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.

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by Mike Fagan on Nov 6, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i gather that he means strikeforce needs to find suitors to gegards throne asap. fighting in a non title fight on their first cbs card is silly. i understand that coker is aware that sokunojudo isnt top ten, but they have no one else to have gegard fight.

by sadface on Nov 7, 2009 1:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

See above where I say: “start adding more fighters to the roster now and start building them.”

by bigweeze on Nov 7, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol strikeforce already have mo

he’s fighting in december

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by blubber_guard on Nov 7, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s hard for me to see how Strikeforce signs Henderson with out grotesquely overpaying him. Dan is not so stupid or getting such bad advice that he’d go to Strikeforce for a marginally higher payday, like an extra 100K a fight, is he?

by Jahbulon on Nov 6, 2009 10:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ignoring the context, 100k extra per fight would be big money

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by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When you consider the marginal tax rate and self employment taxes, 100K extra a fight only translates into about 55K extra per fight.

The more I think about this, it seems like both Strikeforce and Herderson are in lose-lose situations.

Strikeforce has to choose between paying Henderson more than he’s worth to them (and the effect it will have on their pay scale for other similarly ranked fighters), or losing credibility by being unable to sign a top 5 middleweight whom the UFC is practically begging them to take.

Henderson has to choose between going back to the UFC with his tail between his legs, or going to Strikeforce and turning his back on a sometimes irrational and vindictive company who owns the rights to both the Pride and UFC video libraries (his entire legacy), and owns whatever likeness rights he signed away to get in the video game.

by Jahbulon on Nov 6, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Conversely, this is a win-win for the UFC. Either their chief rival overpays a declining fighter and has to deal with the ramifications for their pay scale (if Dan is making 500K a fight, Mousassi isn’t going to fight him for 40 and 40), or Dan comes back to the UFC and it sets a precedent that will help them immensely in future negotiations with fighters.

by Jahbulon on Nov 6, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I gotta agree with you on all this. On top of having to pay Dan what he wants, Strikeforce then has to pay everyone else accordingly, which would cripple them. If they’re going to get fighters from the UFC, Strikeforce would probably be better served to try to poach young, up and coming UFC fighters with some personality, who are making 60K a fight or less. A hard task, since all those fighters are aiming at someday being a UFC champion, but there must be a few not thrilled with what they’re making…I’m not expecting them to be able to pull guys like Hazelett, Jones, Johnson, Condit, Hardy or whatnot, and I’d hate to see any of those guys go, but that’s the kind of fighter Strikeforce should try to extend feelers to when their current contract’s are nearing the end.

by Kwisatz Haderach on Nov 7, 2009 3:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok all i’m commenting on is that i think it’s an exaggeration to call an extra $100k/fight simply “marginally higher”. that’s serious dough for almost every fighter out there except the absolute top of the heap.

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by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Point taken, but I meant “marginally more” in the sense of “incrementally more”, not “barely worth it”. Anyway, 55K is actually more like 62K after taxes (it slipped my mind that Dan is easily over the $106,800 ceiling for social security taxes).

by Jahbulon on Nov 6, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

damn the federales ;)

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by GregS123 on Nov 6, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ENORMUS Value?

There’s one big fight for him in Strikeforce, Mousassi. After that, um, rematch?

by SidHartman on Nov 6, 2009 10:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dan Henderson fights in two weight classes. Has for some time. There are fights with Mayhem/Shields, Cung Le, Frank Shamrock, etc. And, of course, Fedor…

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shields is tiny for a MW, he should still be fighting at WW. In other words he’d get killed. Le doesn’t fight. Frank Shamrock is over the hill, Hendo would destroy him. They might sound interesting on paper but not in reality.

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 3:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs

If Fedor wins this weekend and Henderson beats Mousasi, you best believe they will have a Henderson vs Fedor fight. And Dan would have a lot better chance than most people would give him credit for.

by littlenicky2355 on Nov 6, 2009 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

So

Like 3%?

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by Blackout612 on Nov 6, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's be honest--

Dan has to fight at 205 if he makes the transition to Strikeforce. No one has made the point that SF’s 185er’s are super undersized. Sexyama would look like a giant in that pool. Dan would fucking annihilate, and discredit, that entire division. Shields? Shamrock? Diaz? Lawler? Scott Smith? Mayhem? Hendo would run roughshod over that division and provide ammunition for Dana and the casual fan to insist that the UFC has far superior talent, because they let a guy go and he trampled the next best competition’s entire MW division.

With that being said, after a potential hardcore blockbuster Mousasi/Hendo fight, that would likely deliver average ratings on CBS and cost a shit-ton of money to promote (not to mention Dan’s suggested demands and Gegard saying he’d need more money to fight him) what do you have? A fight with Babalu? I think Coker is too smart to begin digging his own grave. This type of signing, for the neighborhood of pay Hendo is looking for, would be an ominous one. It would set a dangerous precedent for their organization.

"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
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by Blackout612 on Nov 6, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

If Strikeforce/showtime shoots its wad on Dan Henderson it would go down as one of the dumbest business moves in MMA history.

Strikeforce already has the one guy who has buried more organizations than anyone else: Fedor. Fedor has yet to prove he’s worth anything close to what he gets paid. The death nail would be overpaying another guy who doesnt produce his price tag.

I agree with the parallel to a point. WCW had an unlimited budget with Ted Turner simply buying his way into the business (the comparison is more suitable for Afflictions attempt)… Right now everything is in showtime’s hand. It all depends on how much they have in their budget allocated to this thing.

The example parallel works as in this will be the last hurdle in Zuffa’s way – much like how wcw was for the wwe (except strikeforce is nowhere near being a “wcw”… Zuffa’s doing over 300m in revenue this year – strikeforce didnt even do 5% of that)

The other thing is people knew they were watching “wcw”… nobody knows what the fuck strikeforce is… CBS isnt even promoting strikeforce..

Zuffa is overestimating to be safe and assuming showtime has what they offered Tito and would be awesome if a guy like Dan Henderson ate that up. I think they simply reworked Tito’s deal and gave it to Fedor but assuming they have something left Dan Henderson is the perfect candidate to gobble that up.

If They Sign Dan this game is over in 12 months. There are a few guys at showtime looking to make some “side” money while playing with shareholder equity – once they put both feet into the game the sooner it will be over.

by mmalogic on Nov 6, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions 3 recs

SF hiring Hendo wouldn’t be half as dumb as EXC trying to build a HW division (and the whole promotion) around Kimbo.

by lhasafi on Nov 6, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“If They Sign Dan this game is over in 12 months.”

This is a really dumb thing without knowing what kind of offer Strikeforce is sending or could send Dan’s way.

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by Mike Fagan on Nov 6, 2009 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thing to say*

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by Mike Fagan on Nov 6, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

By all accounts, Dan is looking to maximize his guaranteed money in this round of contract negotiations. If Strikeforce doesn’t top the Zuffa offer, Dan will simply re-sign with the UFC.

Strikeforce will need to offer him a ton of upfront money in order to get him to jump ship.

by Steve4192 on Nov 7, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont need to know the offer from strikeforce…

All you need to know is Zuffa’s offer and then obviously you need some common sense to realize what type of package Dan would even entertain from strikeforce/showtime. So use some common sense and you’ll have an idea.

What’s dumb is wondering if Strikeforce/showtime will offer less or not have to offer more to make it worth Dan’s time/risk. But even if they match Zuffa’s offer without having to entice Dan more it’s still game over.

by mmalogic on Nov 7, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

henderson is riding on alot of name value right now after killing bisping… and by simply not being bisping on TUF. people tend to forget he isnt that exciting of a fighter. a great fighter? yes… just not exciting.

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by MicahW on Nov 6, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

When Dan showed up on TUF Nog vs Mir to train Krys, he looked like he had the charisma of drying paint. He only looked good ’cause he was an American against Bisping and zee Brits.

by lhasafi on Nov 6, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“He’s never been hotter; and may never be again. "

So why would Strikeforce sign a fighter who’ll just decrease in popularity very quickly?

I think Dan Henderson would be a solid asset to Strikeforce, but it all depends on the cost. If Strikeforce were to give him half a million a fight, he might be worth it for his first fight, and then what?

by TLow on Nov 6, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

to answer your first question….

it’s the brilliant buy high and sell low strategy….

by Reaser16 on Nov 6, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

If Dan Henderson is in the driver’s seat it’s only because Dana White bought him the car, filled it up with gas, and typed the address to Strikeforce headquarters into the gps before handing Dan the keys.

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 12:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions 3 recs

Not buying this for a second. You guys are giving Dana way too much credit for scheming.

Henderson is not super valuable on his own. But he is a recognizable fighter and one that shifts perceptions. If a fight fan thought Strikeforce was second rate, having a guy they know like Henderson on the show improves that perception remarkably.

It’s a big picture signing. For a year or more, they should sign every UFC guy they can.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh

Arlovksi is/was more recognizable than Henderson…and it didn’t do anyone any good….the thing is…if Strikeforce ever wants to get anywhere near the UFC…they have to promote their brand…which they are not doing…fighters come and go…and we all know how fickle MMA fans are.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Nov 6, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

THIS IS MONEY!

Strikeforce should have played it low key for at least 2 years, stayed away from poking the bear, strengthened up your champions clause (practically nobody has signed that shit yet) and maximized their brand penetration. Then when you get close to a “WCW” level you can make your move.

This was very premature… the showtime deal was good enough to chug along for a year or 2. Using Gina to get on CBS once or twice wouldn’t have hurt either… all while building up some prospects. Then once you have a solid base you either sell your company for BIG DOLLARS or get some big money investors and make your move as being the pepsi to Zuffa’s coke.

Right now their a damn boxing promoter always looking for someone or some entity to underwrite their every move.

You wanna sign Hendo they first need to get showtime or someone else to underwrite it giving away their entire brand and company.

CBS is promoting “MMA on CBS” and could give a shit about strikeforce.

by mmalogic on Nov 6, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Arlovski was coming off of memorable (and horrible losses) beyond an undercard bout no one saw. He wasn’t fresh from a season of TUF and one of the most memorable KO’s of all time. Henderson is a way FOR Strikeforce to promote their brand. He would show they are serious, big time MMA, and not just a second-rate UFC.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He would show they are serious, big time MMA, and not just a second-rate UFC.

Isn’t that their problem? They either sign Dan for more than they can afford or they look like clowns.

by Jahbulon on Nov 6, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

They are going to need lady luck on their side to pull this thing off, whether they sign him or not! No doubt about that. The deck is very much stacked and the UFC has a great show.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How exactly do you sign a fighter the UFC let go, and NOT look like a second-rate UFC?

by CliChe Guevara on Nov 6, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think of it as making a movie. Zuffa is comparable to one of the majors, such as a Warner Bros or Universal, while Strikeforce is a b studio like Lionsgate. Now the majors have tons of money and can afford the Will Smiths 20 mil+ for their blockbusters, but the b’s can’t so they have to settle for a Jason Statham. Now on one of the majors’ pics Jason is going to be a supporting actor, but with the b’s he gets promoted to the starring role and can ask for a lot more than what he would get with Universal because he’s being asked to carry the picture. Who’s losing in this situation?
Not the major studio because they’re not overpaying Stratham.
Not Stratham because he’s making more and getting leading parts.
And not Lionsgate because they get a recognizable star who is a hell of lot cheaper than Will Smith to plaster on their posters and trailers. Sure they are paying more than what he gets elsewhere, but without a star no one would pay head to their shitty movie.

by nottheface on Nov 6, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is it right here….

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but what if dan doesnt = statham. and people dont really care about transporter 4 starring sam rockwell.

by sadface on Nov 6, 2009 3:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

no its not statham and hendo just dont equate. Statham has proven hes a draw. Crank, Crank 2, all those transporter movies, snatch, the list goes on. But hendo is NOT a draw. He cant sell a UFC card on his own, what makes people think he can sell a strikeforce card on his own.

by JaTinkles on Nov 7, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK go with Ben Kingsley slumming in Species. They paid the Oscar winner to make that crapfest look like a legitimate movie.

by nottheface on Nov 7, 2009 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone who went to see Species did not go because Kingsley was in it, but rather because Natasha Henstridge was.

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Nov 7, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

This example works for people like Mayhem and Nick Diaz.

From what has been said of deliberations, hendo wants to get paid like Will Smith.

I don’t think he’s big enough of a star to be getting the will smith money, but I think he’s too good to be in the group of fighters that would benefit from being in SF.

by Phildo on Nov 7, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Dan was as valuable to SF as you think why is Dana practically pushing him out the door? Wouldn’t he be doing everything in his power to keep him?

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

People don’t always make the right decisions. And, of course, there are negatives for the UFC in signing Henderson to a big deal. They clearly don’t want to disrupt a good thing. And they have the beleief that any competitor is likely to fail. Seeing it time and again helps create a sense of confidence in your own infallability.

There is a good chance Strikeforce won’t be competitive, with or without Henderson. It’s hardly a sure thing. But it is a step towards legitimacy.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because he’s worth more to Strikeforce than to the UFC. If Dana gives into his demands he will have 20 other fighters asking for a similar rate. That would $10 mil + a year more a year out of Zuffa’s pockets.

But for Strikeforce he’s worth the risk, because they need to draw eyes. He not a true headliner but put him up against Mousasi (especially if Mousasi has an awesome showing tomorrow) and you have a new main event for your next card with the added bonus of legitimizing their talent up. It’s a must do for them, and one that wont cost them a million (see Arlovski, Tito, etc.)

by nottheface on Nov 6, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

guys we need to get out of the hardcore mma fan mindset. NO ONE and I mean NO ONE knows who Mousasi is outside of hardcores. No casual fan knows what strikeforce is. They know “the fat russian dude” and the “hot girl fighter” Sure casuals might know who dan henderson is from TUF, but people havent ever seen his fights or know his legacy outside theu ufc.

by JaTinkles on Nov 7, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re right, but I’m counting on Mousasi to put on such a good performance tomorrow that people will remember who he is.

by nottheface on Nov 7, 2009 2:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can see the points you’re making but (and not to get too deep into pro-wrestling territory here, but I know you’ll get what I’m saying) I think you stop drawing the analogy to WCW too early in the WCW timeline. Yes, signing big names gave them a boost, and yes that boost put them over the WWF for awhile. But then they had a bunch of guys with WAY too expensive contracts who were past their prime, who were no longer drawing, and the company was losing money hand over fist. End result? They no longer exist.

If Hendo signs a 3 fight huge $$ deal and gets tooled by Mousasi in fight #1, aren’t they in that same WCW spot? And if they do the same thing with, say, Tito, or Chuck, or any other UFC guys, won’t they end up potentially facing the same problems as WCW, where the payroll was so huge that they couldn’t reasonably turn a profit? In fact, isn’t that exactly what tanked Affliction?

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by Fraser Coffeen on Nov 6, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

It’s a little different though. The wrestling guys were signing longterm deals. Fighters are likely to have shorter deals with more outs for the promoter. I don’t know what Strikeforce is offering, not the particulars. I know what the UFC terms were.

What’s nice is that the fighters are all cheaply priced. No one is so expensive that they can sink a company as a main event guy. The issue is whether you pay undercard guys a princely sum. That is what sunk Affliction.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The difference between Hendo and Tito or Arlovski is that Hendo is relatively affordable. Arlovski got $750,000 a fight and Tito would want $1 or 2 million minimum. What is Hendo getting? Apparently from what I’ve read he wanted $500,000 a fight with a large portion of it up front. Well, there is nothing to say that Strikeforce is going to pay that. In fact they could probably go substantially lower for two reasons:
1) Zuffa has walked away from negotiations. Hendo’s only option is to sign with the UFC at a rate apparently much lower than he wanted or go with Strikeforce. Strikeforce has just got to beat Zuffa’s offer, and Zuffa’s offer is nothing right now.
2) If the show tomorrow does good they can guarantee Hendo fights on Network TV (of course, that depends on the show doing good in the ratings otherwise they can’t promise anything). When a lot of fighters earn a large portion of their income from sponsors, being on network TV with 7 mil + eyes watching you can make a big difference to your pocket book.

The other thing we’ve got to remember is that Strikeforce is not building anything around Dan. That is what they are doing with Fedor. Dan is there to help them legitimize Strikeforce and their fighters (namely Mousasi). Dan would be there for 3 or 4 fights (Mousasi and then maybe Mo or a run at the MW title?) after which they will have a new generation of fighters to market. Fighters that we are familiar with because they took on a legitimate top fighter.

by nottheface on Nov 6, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Strikeforce has just got to beat Zuffa’s offer, and Zuffa’s offer is nothing right now.

I’d be willing to bet that Dana has left his last offer on the table. Dan can have it any time he chooses. Strikeforce is going to beat that offer, probably by a significant margin.

by Steve4192 on Nov 6, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a very stupid move on Strikeforces part, IMO.

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Nov 6, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dan is there to help them legitimize Strikeforce and their fighters (namely Mousasi)

$1,000,000 up front and a $500,000 per fight is pretty damn expensive for a guy you view is a stepping stone.

by Steve4192 on Nov 6, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First: I don’t think he’s actually asking for that much. I think it’s probably along the lines of $2 mil over 4 fights with $1 mil up front.
Second: See reasons 1 and 2 above.

by nottheface on Nov 6, 2009 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dude………………….im drunk but 1 mil up front and 500k a fight is the same exact thing as
1 mil up front and 2 mil over 4 fights. Or did i miss the sarcasm there?

by JaTinkles on Nov 7, 2009 2:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

He means one mil of the two total mil up front and then 250k, essentially, for each of the four fights.

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by Blackout612 on Nov 7, 2009 4:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There were so many problems with WCW past the long-term guaranteed contracts to veterans that the analogy isn’t completely apt.

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by Mike Fagan on Nov 7, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So now Strikeforce v. UFC is like WCW v. WWF?? Isn’t that what people said about PRIDE and UFC? and EliteXC v. UFC? and Affliction v. UFC? and hoped for DREAM v. UFC?

Strikeforce has (and is putting together) a good stable of fighters, but they’re mostly signing prospects and that’s what they’re mostly going after (Fedor, Mousasi, Hendo plus Shields, Melendez and Diaz they already had/have doesn’t make a “WCW” type promotion)…

trying (once again) to make this comparison, the other promotion besides UFC should have around 50% of the top fighters, but since thats hard to get to and you can judge prospects/young guys and female fighters also, I’de still say a promotion would at least have to have multiple guys in the top 10 in each weight class, then you can call them WCW to UFC’s WWF…

Strikeforce should have to have at least 3-4 top 10 fighters in each weight class (or at least the top 5 wt. classes) to be considered the WCW in this scenario, instead they have 5 top ten guys TOTAL in the top 7 wt. classes, and even among those 5 a few aren’t really with strikeforce, they just “can” fight for strikeforce through co-promotion, like AO, and we have seen how that works out…

by Reaser16 on Nov 6, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I think I was fairly explicit in the piece at Heavy about the wrestling comparison. There was a time when WCW had very few of the top wrestling stars outside of the SouthEast. There history is one of failure competing against the national brand from New York. It was only by signing the talent from WWE that they were able to be competitive.

If the analogy fits, this is just the beginning for Strikeforce.

I don’t think any of the other scenarios are really comparable. This one has the potential to be: small but succesful regional promoter taking on the big boys is right out of the WCW storybook.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 6, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WCW had an endless budget

and used Ted Turner’s money to buy major stars. Strikeforce can’t possibly do that, and would be stupid to. Unless somebody fabulously wealthy and willing to throw their money around joins up with Strikeforce, it will never be a major WCW-esque competitor, capable of stealing top talent.

by Trysdor on Nov 6, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brain….is….leaking………

We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.

by Robert Downey Sr. on Nov 6, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i always like the NWA better-big van vader vs cactus jack was one of the best feuds and strings of matches that hardly anyone saw or remembers. whoops, almost forgot this is a mma site. :-)

by bdw on Nov 6, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It’s only a nice signing if they can get him for 100k or less and get CBS/Showtime to pick up the tab. He’s not a draw in any meaningful sense, and given Strikeforce’s financial constraints he makes little sense for their business model.

They’re going to have to spend at least $500,000 a fight to get Dan Henderson. They’ll list his salary at a small amount to hide it, but that’s what it will take. It’s a bad move, they don’t have unlimited finances.

by Michael Rome on Nov 6, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

I should note that everything I said hinges on the lack of outside funding for Strikeforce. If a third party has jumped on to fund a massive MMA expenditure and war then that’s a whole different story, but that’s not the case as far as I know.

After Dana planted his original Yahoo story, I spoke to someone high up at Strikeforce that said “He makes zero sense for strikeforce he’s too expensive and doesn’t put butts in seats.” I don’t believe he’s signed, his management is just running the most obvious bluff ever while Dana plays the opposite role claiming he already left and doesn’t care. I guess we’ll see.

by Michael Rome on Nov 6, 2009 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No matter what I think Strikeforce (and Dan and everyone) would be smart to wait and see how tomorrow’s show does. If it’s gangbusters than if Strikeforce doesn’t have a partner now they may have one Monday (I’m guessing Showtime/CBS would put a whole foot in at this point instead of only their toes. They’ll be saving the other foot until after a ppv). In addition, they’ll have the ability to offer Dan a chance to make a hell of a lot on endorsements if they can promise him Network exposure.

If the ratings are ho-hum or poor Dan’s leverage with either company goes way down.

by nottheface on Nov 6, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He makes zero sense for strikeforce he’s too expensive and doesn’t put butts in seats." I don’t believe he’s signed, his management is just running the most obvious bluff ever while Dana plays the opposite role claiming he already left and doesn’t care. I guess we’ll see.

The one thing I’ve notice about Strikeforce lately is that they’ve been able to catch a lot of people of guard: the showtime/CBS deal; the Fedor signing; making Fedor’s first fight on CBS. Your source may be good, or they may really have the misdirection thing down pat.

by nottheface on Nov 6, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So Jonathan, care to fill us in on the offer Dan received from Zuffa?

by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 5:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I wish I could, but I only know one side of the story and don’t want a repeat of Fedor-gate. It was an offer it will be hard for Strikeforce to match, I would think, but then again there is a whole different revenue stream for sponsors if the fight is on network TV in front of a huge audience.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 7, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

network TV does offer a whole different revenue stream, but I still think the fight purse would need to be close. Unless Dan got multiple fights on network TV and the sponsors lined up beforehand.

by Phildo on Nov 7, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

UFC will win

it always does

by banter on Nov 6, 2009 11:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Except for those eight years it was running second….

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 7, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Business a marathon, not a sprint.

Also I have it more like six years as second fiddle (2000-2005) rather than eight. Pride was actually kind of crappy prior to the 2000 GP, and by their death rattle was already sounding by the end of 2006.

by Steve4192 on Nov 7, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Business is both a marathon and a sprint, depending on the time and the company. I was just pointing out that in the Zuffa era they have spent more time in second place than in first. And if the attitude is that the UFC name will always carry them and gives them a right to the top position…they may be in for a surprise.

Of course, I love the UFC, think their shows are great, and think they are the industry leader because of talented promoters and fighters. I expect them to remain in the top position for years to come. But a massive talent exodus could be a long term problem as they bully fighters and managers they will need in five years.

By the way, fighters were leaving the UFC, even abandoning a title shot, to go to PRIDE in 1997.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 7, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zuffa overtook Pride because of revenue… plain and simple. Zuffa’s increased and Pride’s decreased.

Zuffa will produce in the neighborhood of 300m in revenue this year. It has more than 80% of the top fighters in the world… you cant even say that (amount of top athletes) for major league baseball.

Strikeforce hasnt even produced 5% of that revenue and has all of 5 top 10 fighters.

There is a way for another entity to emerge as a “pepsi” but I estimate it will take around 200m in capital, a strong Network deal and a strong basic cable deal… You can’t compete in the current model – you have to take UFC out of ppv. You need the money to pump up your roster, a network deal to counter the UFC ppv’s and a strong basic cable presence so the fans don’t forget about you.

The investment would be worth it as the asset would be valued above 1b if done right.

The fighters go wherever they are best monetized. CBS and Showtime arent paying shit. So I wouldn’t hold my breath on a fighters exodus. If CBS starts paying 6m plus per show then there’s a discussion… but then why wouldn’t they pay that for the best product: the UFC?

And sponsorship money on CBS (which they’ve only committed to one strikeforce show) is no different than what fighters can get on UFC numbered shows. The only difference is when you’re scott smith and you co-main event in a show because the organization lacks top fighters.

Sombody up top is making a “jason stathom” argument which only works for guys like scott smith, Mayhem miller… doesn’t work for a Dan Henderson.

Fighters go where the money is… When pride had the money fighters went there. There are 2 ways to negate Zuffa’s revenue one scenario is some crazy tragedy in the sport and it gets blown way out of proportion to the point where the sport becomes outlawed in which case everyone is fucked and the other is somebody ponying up and risking as much as 200m in trying to get UFC out of the ppv model.

In 5 years there will be absolutely no distinction between the web, TV and Radio in terms of functional distribution because the internet will be the backbone (It will be what cable TV was when analog reigned supreme). It will be faster, better quality, have more capabilities (interactivity) and more options.

Since Zuffa has been structured as media company and is the biggest ppv provider in the world it will reap great dividends in the upcoming transition.

by mmalogic on Nov 7, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I think there is room for both companies (and others besides). Strikeforce is only competing with the UFC based on the broadest definitions of the word. They don’t offer a competing product (they aren’t in PPV market, don’t compete head to head, etc). They are in the market for the same talent. And they can be competitive because of Zuffa’s unnaturally low pay scale.

Eventually, inevitably, the boxing model will prevail. A fighter like Lesnar (or next gen Lesnar) will be strong enough to headline PPVs on his own, pocketing De La Hoya money, and the value of the UFC name will decline.

This will be bad for fans, the great top to bottom shows will be a thing of the past. It will be good for the top fighters, probably bad for the lowest rung.

by JonathanSnowden on Nov 7, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Too matter of fact

The UFC is creating remarkable equity and brand loyalty for their product. A fighter carrying an event independently is so far out of the realm of reason given the current environment of this industry, you may as well start proclaiming that electrified fences will no doubt be utilized by 2015. Stars most often leave the UFC and die an unglorified MMA-career death. Fighters can’t self-promote and no other organization in US history has proven that they can regularly and successfully build stars. The two outliers in that argument are Carano and Kimbo, both of whom generated (to varying degrees) interest in other popular media.

"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba

by Blackout612 on Nov 7, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Brock Lesnar sold about 10K PPVs for his MMA debut at Dynamite USA. He soild something like 650K in his UFC debut. As huge a draw as Lesnar is, he is only a draw within the UFC brand.

People hate to admit it, but MMA is run on the pro wrestling model. I don’t care how popular a pro wrestler becomes, he will never be able to sell PPVs on his own. Not Steve Austin, not Dwayne Johnson, not John Cena. Their popularity will always be limited to within the WWE brand.

by Steve4192 on Nov 8, 2009 7:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Royce was a main event on a UFC card which produced over 600k buys and incidentally his next fight was on that Brock/dynamite card which 2 people bought.

by mmalogic on Nov 8, 2009 8:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The biggest boxing stars still need HBO… and boxing is not a league or divisional sport or a branded sport like MMA. The UFC is “the promoter”, “the sanctioning body”, “the producer” and “the distributor” (way more power than HBO has with boxing)… The boxing model will die with showtimes efforts… this is the last hurdle.

Showtime is following the boxing model to a T so if it has any legs in this industry we’ll see in the next 18 months.

Zuffa’s payscale isnt unnaturally low… Strikeforce has yet to even get to Zuffa’s payscale… we will see in the next 12 months as strikeforce has to relatively meet it.

Zuffa’s top tier stars versus Strikeforces (not even close)
Zuffa’s second tier versus Strikeforces (not even close)
Zuffa’s third tier versus strikeforces (not even close)
Zuffa bare minimum to show versus strikeforces (not even close… strikeforce pays something like 1500 and 1500).

In the next 12 months strikeforce will learn a harsh reality that just because you get second and third tier fighters and make them your top stars you’re not going to get away with paying them second and third tier money.

but I do agree that there’s space for more orgs (just not at this level) and this competition is more talent based than market space but it can evolve into one if not checked by Zuffa.

by mmalogic on Nov 8, 2009 2:15 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

This idea that Showtime is the last hurdle is wrong. There are a ton of other hurdles to come.

To me, this is playing out just like other major sports played out in the middle of the twentieth century. Extremely lopsided revenue sharing arrangements, declarations from management a union could never happen, and eventually court decisions throwing out clauses that kept salaries low.

The UFC’s championship clause is fighting’s equivalent of baseball’s reserve clause. Similarly, it will eventually be eliminated by the courts, and when it does that is when the UFC will have a very serious situation from a competitive perspective.

It’s basically impossible to jump in and compete right now because of the championship clause. You can’t sign the biggest players to start an organization because they’re locked in beyond the end of their contract. When Al Davis went to war with the NFL, he signed players to new contracts starting upon expiration of their current deals. Right now you can’t really do that to the UFC because of the championship clause. When that clause goes away, and it will, then it becomes open season and salaries will skyrocket.

But this has all played out before, in numerous major sports. This thing has only been big for a few years, the idea that this is the “last hurdle” is short sighted. It’s very early.

by Michael Rome on Nov 8, 2009 2:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you’re saying the championship clause is the key? HBO doesnt have a championship clause and every big money fight seems to come knocking.

Listen, Zuffa invests heavily in the sport and the profit sharing is closer than most think… and as time goes on and Zuffa has to spend less building the sport the share will get naturally closer.

I agree the indefinite championship clause has no legs other than the first 18 month court battle… it will just change to longer “exlcusive negotiating periods” or something else. The bottom line is as long as a fighter cant fight for 18 to 24 months after you invest in promoting that fighter there’s little risk. That and basically owning the distribution channel is the only barrier to entry you need.

And the real “force field” is monetization. As long as you can monetize the product better than anyone else champions clause or no champions clause it doesn’t matter.

A union will not happen as its impossible to organize globally.

The only way anything happens is government intervention… guess what? you eat cloned food and synthetic ingredients (which fucks you up) because of something called “lobbyists”.

Unfortunately the model in today’s climate for any industry leader is deliver value, become the best and set up your political strategy and network of lobbyists to maintain you’re competitive advantages.

This disgusts me because some company’s have now abused this to the point where that has become there only competitive advantage (having political power) and they engineer tax codes, subsidies,laws etc to maintain their dominance instead of what got them to the top in the beginning: “Delivering superior value to the market place”.

Now I dont think Zuffa will go down this black hole of “synthetically engineered dominance” unless the 3 owners disappear but you can bet your ass the framework for the political strategy is already in place to protect Zuffa… Just like Google and every other captain of industry have set up their lobby base/strategy after seeing Bill Gates get hammered.

Such is life now in big business… And unfortunately I dont see fans taking to the streets because fighters who get paid hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars not getting free dental checkups in their package.

Long term there is nothing Zuffa hasnt planned for including as many “black swans” the universe can muster.

by mmalogic on Nov 8, 2009 4:03 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs

I dispute that Showtime is the last competitive hurdle. They may be the last hurdle for now, but it’s always worth remembering how early in the game we are.

Zuffa is making a gigantic mistake leaving that clause the way it is. My guess is the odds are 50/50 on whether a court 100% throws it out or makes it just the original term and not looping into perpetuity. If a court throws it out then we have open season, and the industry will rapidly change.

by Michael Rome on Nov 8, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it can be thrown out… still doesnt change or alter any other part of the agreement. There was no champions clause for Fedor. It’s actually useless at this point as there are already other parameters that takes care of the risk.

Yeah it’s early in the life span but this is the last “model” or approach you can conceive of coming after Zuffa in north America. Everything else – if they pop up – will be a copy of this or one of the others…

This showtime effort is way different from the ifl, elite xc, wfa and affliction approaches. wfa and affliction was similar.

Elite xc was the closest thing in trying to emulate Zuffa’s business model.

Showtime’s approach is a carbon copy of the boxing model.

Strikeforce has pretty much the same hdnet deal (close to break even) except the numbers are different… the licensing fee’s are higher but so is the payroll which they are playing a very delicate balance with.

Every move they make somebody has to underwrite it… on the other end of the coin showtime execs answer to a board – this recipe is not conducive to success or being able to compete with a nimble company like Zuffa.

In terms of competing on revenue – lets forget about ppv – There CBS deal pays way less than Spike. Their Showtime deal pays less than versus. I mean they aren’t even competing with U.S. TV rights yet.

But lets assume showtime goes all in… everybody knows what they pay for boxing and what their maximum is – that’s not gonna work.

If showtime cant compete then whats the point on airing b level content on a permium channel? They’ve done dumber things in the past but it makes no sense for their position and brand. Being second rate to HBO is one thing, but being second rate to spike or espn just crosses the line and makes no sense.

by mmalogic on Nov 8, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and when I say “hurdle” I mean last competitive hurdle in North America.

There are possibilities of something credible (threats) emerging overseas like in India or China especially with the dynamic shifts in power and interests happening in the next few decades.

by mmalogic on Nov 8, 2009 4:08 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs

rec’d for the usual wonderful, well, logic. (and also the black swan reference. LD!)

by Gerrymanderer on Nov 8, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The AFL forcing/getting the merger with the NFL wasn’t as simple as Al Davis went to war with the NFL by signing players to contracts upon the expiration of their current deals….(and why is Al Davis getting all the credit, he played a major role but fairer to say “AFL” as a whole rather than Al Davis)

AFL went after and got Heisman trophy winners, the best of the black college players, Joe Nameth, etc out of COLLEGE, NFL was going after some of the same players and each league got their share, but the AFL was getting their guys before the NFL could have them and so the NFL couldn’t have them, so it wasn’t about stealing the NFL’s already established talent (though this also happened but later on after a merger was already inevitable), stealing NFL’s talent isn’t what made the AFL good, they got the prospects and guys the NFL overlooked plus more importantly they put out an arguably more exciting product and brand of football, and ever more importantly, had a great television deal, which allowed the league to grow and ultimately made it clear the AFL wasn’t going to fold which the NFL had hoped they would just go away, and the spending on player salaries in both leagues was getting ridiculous, so they merged, but only after the AFL was established as a legit competitor…

if PRIDE wasn’t so corrupt and didn’t have the TV (=money) problems at the end I would have liked to see that as “our” merger, I think you said it before and if so I would agree with you that something like that a merger will happen, happened in football, basketball, hockey, baseball…I just don’t think it will be Strikeforce, and besides that, not sure how it would work since all other mergers are just US based, but I’de rather see a global merger, one giant promotion worldwide, or two with champions fighting eachother, etc, whatever a merger would entail…

by Reaser16 on Nov 8, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

UFC v SF

a MMA war would be intersting to be sure since they could defiantly threaten to leave and go there and fight. UFC has the money though and all the exposure and control really. Hendo in SF would be great though him v mousasi would be pretty cool idk who would cut the weight

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by MaZZacare on Nov 7, 2009 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs