Gambling Spotlight '68 Special: Investing in Fedor Emelianenko More Profitable Than Stock Market
by Mike Fagan on Nov 5, 2009 9:00 PM EST
in MMA News
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What are you making on your savings account? Point-two-five percent? Got an even one percent on that CD? I laugh at your pitiful attempts at increasing your earning power. Put your faith in Fedor, sir.
Ignorant bettors will scoff, thinking that you should never bet on a line this chalk heavy. Don't listen to those chumps. The fundamental theorem of gambling is this: when the expected win percentage of an event is greater than the odds presented, you profit.
Even at the worst odds available (-625 at Bodog), Emelianenko still brings in tremendous value. Conservatively (very conservatively), I have Fedor as a 90% favorite in this fight. According to the Kelly Criterion, we should be betting approximately 27.5% of our bankroll given the odds and our expected win probability (using a more risk-averse, half-Kelly number yields 14.7%).
And if you've been paying attention to my advice with regards to hitting lines early and often, you'll have noticed that Fedor sat between -400 and -450 for the past month. This is such a tragically mispriced line that I would recommend the books fire whoever handles their MMA business.
Brett Rogers is a respectable heavyweight and deserving of his fringe top ten ranking. Unfortunately for him, Fedor Emelianenko lands so far outside your normal distribution for talent that I have him as AT LEAST a -300 favorite against every other heavyweight not infected with mononucleosis (and I still have him as a substantial favorite against that guy, too).
I know a lot of people get put off when they see their $6.25 investment only returns a measly $1. Think of it this way though. You're still making nearly 16% on every dollar. If you can find me a more profitable place to put your money (and then one that doesn't require you to keep the money frozen for five years), more power to you.
Just a caveat. Even with an aggressive 95% win probability, 5-10% still represents a very real risk of failure. However, that projection, in my mind, covers the realistic paths to victory for Rogers - a Black Swan KO, fluke cut, or otherwise unforeseeable injury.
Load up, folks.
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Tell me you got in on Fedor when he was in the -400’s. I’d normally be the “ignorant” bettor and stray away, but you’re right. Not throwing down immense money on Fedor is a crime. I laid down at -400.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
I laid on Fedor-Mousasi parlay at great odds and another that added in the Dreamboat Shields.
Giving Shogun his props. I had the fight 48-47 Machida but Shogun put up a monumental performance and I am honored to have seen it in person.
1-2 for the Fedor-Mousasi
1.1-1 for Fedor, Mousasi, Shields
Giving Shogun his props. I had the fight 48-47 Machida but Shogun put up a monumental performance and I am honored to have seen it in person.
Cool yeah those are great odds for Fedro-Moose.
by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 8:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I have my biggest bet ever at various lines between -400 and -450.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
Nice.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Nov 6, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
I avoided…because I kept losing my ass on MMA betting. I also have an aversion to having money on fights I’m covering ringside in a professional capacity. Also…I feel odd about the fight for some reason. I’m almost positive Fedor wins….but there is something that doesn’t feel right to me.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 5, 2009 9:19 PM EST reply actions
that being said...
smart bettors do play favorites, especially in a situation as Fagan outlined above.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 5, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t tend to bet above -325 for the simple fact that there are more ways I can see some of those fights being lost. That said, I’ve been betting more with bigger favorites recently to pad my winnings a bit, but underdogs still remain a big part of my game. Challengers card has some great odds to look at.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Nov 5, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
betting over -325
There are only a few guys i bet over -325. GSP and Silva have been two, and i took Fitch a bit ago at a high rate as well. Got burned very nicely with Bonner over Coleman and Sherk over Edgar at high odds, so i am hesitent to bet out of a select few guys.
and what are you thinking Leland for the Challenger series. I hate the feeling that i found something that looked good, then i see a few people say the other side was better. I went light with JT Money at -200 over Rockhold and Gurgel +160 over Evangelista. I am a bit nervous because these seem like the 2 “public” plays, so I would love to hear what others think.
Well, Rockhold is actually a nice underdog bet, IMO. I’m not completely sure if Gurgel can deal with Evangelista’s speedy footwork, but it isn’t a terrible bet. I still think Rockhold is a pretty good bet though vs. JT.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Nov 6, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions
Wait so NOBODY is better that -300 except Brock Lesnar? I’m sorry but Lesnar is really has better chances than Barnett, Arlovski, Werdum, Overeem and Big Nog? I just don’t see the logic there
I’d say Lesnar has better chances than them simply because of his size and wrestling could pose some interesting problems for fedor style wise..
and We’ve seen Fedor vs Nog 3 times, and he still didn’t get it, what makes you say he shouldn’t be -300 or higher?
by Anton Tabuena on Nov 5, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
I’d say Barnett would get better odds than Lesnar. Just because he got popped for roids doesn’t mean he’s out. Once his WVR contract is over he can fight in DREAM, get their heavyweight (superhulk?) belt, and then have one of those lovey dovey DREAM-Strikeforce unifications. Japan for the win.
they had those odds before Affliction 3 was cancelled..
Fedor Emelianenko (30-1) -500 vs. Josh Barnett (24-5) +360
by Anton Tabuena on Nov 6, 2009 2:22 AM EST up reply actions
not sportsbook.com
i am having trouble with one of my online books, sportsbook.com. some one’s people recommend and are good are 5dimes.com, betus.com, i think bodogg.com and others that other people can throw out there.
I Rec'd 5Dimes
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Nov 6, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
@ Leland and Fagan
Do you know if these sites allow Canadian bettors?
I am the bastard love child of Junie Browning and Diamond Dave Kaplan.
If you’re in Canada, you might want to take advantage of Pinnacle’s lines.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Nov 6, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
You can’t compare MMA betting with equity markets. If you lose a bet you earn NOTHING. Bets should offer a greater Er since you are inheriting greater exposure (i.e. the risk of zero return). If my stock drops 50% in one day it is still worth something. You also have to factor in fees, taxes, etc so you’ll never make the full 16% betting.
Maybe I’m just bitter that no one is picking Rogers. No love for American muscle. =(
No matter what happens, everyone loves saying "I KNEW IT" after its done.
Of course, when Rogers gets the KO, we’ll all be talking how we knew Fedor should have retired blah blah blah blah blah — Crocop was the man who possible tested Fedor the most, and he got dropped by Gonzaga and was never the same.
Nobody likes to mention the fact that Arlovski made Fedor look bad for 95% of the fight. Arlovski even outgrappled him in the clinch and would have gotten the takedown if Fedor hadn’t bounced into the ropes.
When Brett Rogers needs three solid connects to end a fight, nothing is a sure bet here.
Nobody likes to mention the fact that Arlovski made Fedor look bad for 95% of the fight.
Haha. People bring this up all the time. It was an especially hot topic of discussion in the immediate wake of the fight itself. Some people love to mention this.
Cmon. Every Fedor fan that watched that fight had a 4 min long heart attack before his big KO from the corner. Fedor was outsized, out struck and outgrappled, but he pulled it out because of his calmness and awareness—his readiness to find any error and exploit it.
Honestly, Rogers is a sloppy fighter and I still think Fed’s got it. I just refuse to put my hard-earned money on it.
the point is that Arlovski was edging him out in point scoring b4 the KO. That’s a widely held opinion that I share. Here’s the question you have to ask yourself. Is it more dangerous standing with AA for 3 or 4 minutes or with Rogers? Oh Nevermind, Brett answered that already.
Here’s the question you have to ask yourself. Is it more dangerous standing with AA for 3 or 4 minutes or with Rogers? Oh Nevermind, Brett answered that already.
Yes – is it more dangerous to stand with a fast, technically proficient striker with KO power or a powerful flat footed slugger with no form, no footwork, who throws wild and wide punches. Glad that was “answered”.
I am the bastard love child of Junie Browning and Diamond Dave Kaplan.
Little know fact, beginning in 2001, if you bet on Fedor on every fight, rolling over your winnings each time, your original $2 million investment would be now worth over $1 Billion.
But I didn’t have $2 million in 2001.
by ufc4 on Nov 5, 2009 11:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
In that case get some buddies that own a casino to spot you the money.
by John Nash on Nov 5, 2009 11:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
trick question
sorry, the answer was a steady job, a half oz, and meatloaf and salad with vinigrette for dinner
i had a mcchicken on tuesday tho.
Fagan putting his balls on the chopping block
I think you’re analysis is perfect. That being said this could be a Custer’s land stand level post if somehow Fedor gets KO’d.
Giving Shogun his props. I had the fight 48-47 Machida but Shogun put up a monumental performance and I am honored to have seen it in person.
what # would it take to lay money on Rogers?
So at what point does the Rogers line have any value? It would seem Fagan and others are thinking Jose Canseco numbers (vs. Choi) or Thompson vs Overeem numbers, right? I am one of the goofballs who put little less then a .5 unit on Rogers at +500 which seems like a bad call. I doubt he will get too high, but what number would any of the regular gamblers consider Rogers a worthwhile bet? +800?
I’m not a regular MMA gambler but I’d say it would have to be at least +900 for me to put any real money on it.
So if Lesnar and Fedor fought who would you bet on at Fedor -250 Lesnar +200? How about Fedor -190 Lesnar +150?
Nice analysis. However, i weigh up the odds as:
If Fedor loses – I will be crushed.
If Fedor loses, and i had $1000 on him with the hope of winning a measly $160 – I will be suicidal.
Sorry, he Jason Bourned me.
good point! Fedor is the best , but he’s not the best in the way AS is. Anderson’s UFC opponents have had virtually no chance of victory except Henderson. Roger’s however does have a path to victory that is at least within reason. Personally, I think Jones over Hamil is more of a lock. What the heck can Hamill do to Jones? hold him down? not likely.
Sportsbooks had been getting slaughtered with heavy action on favourites covering the spread easily over some truly awful teams over the past couple of months. Likely a similar situation, I can’t imagine there are too many people on Rogers here. He’s a huge wild-card in my books though.
One word of advice is that the odds will rise sharply at the expected 80+% mark, and so will your recommended bet by Kelly. But what looks like a slight change in Fedor’s win % is actually a huge change in Rogers’ win . Although you’re trying to measure the same thing, it may be more helpful to assess Rogers’ odds of winning than trying to figure out if Fedor will win 88 vs. 90% of the time.
I couldn’t put Fedor much past 90%, if at all.
Rogers hasn’t fought great competition, but does have a very good combination of speed/size/strength – he should be able to hold his ground vs. Fedor (at least not get taken down immediately) which will allow him to sit down on some punches. And his hands seem to be rather accurate with big power. Another couple of things I like about Rogers that will help him in this fight – he’s effective moving forward while Fedor is out of his comfort zone while moving backward. Rogers is also willing to move in and out and closes the distance quickly after avoiding a punch – he could punish Fedor for missing one of those leaping punches. He’s no plodder like Sylvia and won’t just stand in one spot covering up.
It should be interesting to see where Rogers is in his development and if he’s put his time off to good use. It’s tough to say whether Fedor really improves from fight to fight – but he does keep on winning decisively.
I gotta to be honest
I’ve never seen Rogers on defense in a fight so I have no clue what he can do.
What’s the bet on a “Rocky has arrived” comment from Gus Johnson?
How about “Cocky has arrived” when Mayhem walks in?
by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 8:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Will they go with “The Armenian Assassin” again when Sokodjou gets KTFO’d? Maybe they’ll practice their timing a bit better so they both don’t say it this time
Anything is better than Dreamcatcher.
by ufc4 on Nov 6, 2009 9:42 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
haha yeah so geigh
but did anyone watch the thing on showtime? when they show the arlovski KO brett missed 5 straight punches and then connected, he won’t be doing that tomorrow. Its going to go: bullrush, takedown, immediate armbar. sub by fedor in the first. and thats how all the predictions will go today
by Austin Martin on Nov 6, 2009 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
Another thing, right now burying all of your money in a hole in the backyard is more profitable than the stock market.
Keep firing Assholes!
I am the King of Rome, and am above grammar. -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor
Not really
If you invested correctly this year you’d be rich. Case in point- middle of February Ford closed at 1.50, today it’s at 7.75.
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