UFC 107 Preview: Who Can Stop BJ Penn?

Over at Sherdog.com, Jason Probst does some handicapping and takes a look at the UFC lightweight division after an assumed win over Sanchez:

Who’ll turn the trick? If one cross-compared the skill sets of all five UFC champions, Penn rates the best from a pound-for-pound perspective. He has proven a solid striker with subtle stand-up defense and a granite chin, and he gives opponents fits in a tie-up, whether he defends a takedown or attempts one. He has also proven incredibly dominant from top position, and once he obtains it, the fight essentially ends. There are better wrestlers (Brock Lesnar and Georges St. Pierre) and strikers (Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and St. Pierre), but Penn has proven more dangerous from more ranges and positions than any of them.

The big challenge for Penn remains himself and staying motivated to defend his crown. Forever in search of greater tests, his lightweight reign could become an amazing one, given the depth of the division and high-energy foes. Aggressive scrappers like Sanchez, Gray Maynard, Frankie Edgar and Tyson Griffin comprise the top tier of deserving challengers. It provides a full cupboard for the Hilo, Hawaii, native and could serve up a memorable reign if he brings his "A" game for the next few years.

If Penn loses his 155-pound crown, it will be to an opponent pitching a perfect game -- likely a great wrestler with good stand-up and the tenaciousness to wear down Penn, a la St. Pierre.

All of these questions are important given that the math portends a change of hands in title holders quicker than we imagine:

Yet for the seeming convergence of dominant champions, a UFC title itself has not proven a long-running job description in the past. With the average UFC championship reign at just 1.38 defenses, being "top dog" in a given division rarely lends itself to a lengthy streak of defenses. A breakdown of the math follows:

Lightweight: 3 reigns, 4 defenses, 1.33 defenses per reign
Welterweight: 8 reigns, 14 defenses, 1.75 defenses per reign
Middleweight: 5 reigns, 8 defenses, 1.6 defenses per reign
Light Heavyweight: 10 reigns, 15 defenses, 1.5 defenses per reign
Heavyweight: 14 reigns, 10 defenses, 0.71 defenses per reign.

For tabulation purposes, a scheduled bout does not count as a successful defense if a challenger misses weight or the match takes place between an interim titleholder and champion.

That’s why the current crop of champions is different. If you lined up all five, it would be a tough call to guess how many defenses each would make during their current reigns. Outside of light heavyweight titleholder Lyoto Machida, none of them have a challenger who registers less than 3-to-1 to dethrone them, and each has a good shot at making a lengthy run. UFC middleweight king Anderson Silva currently holds the promotional record for consecutive title defense with five, along with Tito Ortiz.

There are many who complain that the champions of these divisions cannot be touched by the challengers, so what is the point?

I don't so much mind it, truthfully. Given how often titles change hands, at least statistically speaking, it's nice to see a division cleaned out top to bottom, if a champion can produce such an outcome. Count me in as one who is all in favor of eras, reigns and streaks. It makes the business of ending them far more interesting.