UFC 106: Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz 2 Predictions

UFC 106: November 21, 2009
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main card:
Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

Luke Thomas: I just have no idea what to expect from Ortiz. I also expect Griffin to show the same weakness in his takedown defense that has come to be a liability he just can't shed, but I expect him to stuff Oritz's shots enough to do damage standing. Griffin by decision.

Kid Nate: Tito is a huge X factor here. Has the back surgery really had a dramatic impact? How rusty will he be? In their first fight, Tito crushed Forrest for one round, edged him in the second and faded in the third. I'm going to flip a coin and pick Tito Ortiz by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  This is just such a hard fight to come back from a layoff and surgery to.  I probably would pick any dangerous striker over Griffin, but Tito isn't that.  Maybe Tito shocks and is explosive in his wrestling and just pounds on Griffin from the top position, but Forrest has very overlooked BJJ should he end up on bottom.  I just don't see too many risks being there for Forrest while I do for Tito.  Forrest Griffin by one sided decision.

Michael Rome:  I think the surgery matters, but not the way everyone else does.  I think Ortiz will be stilted and slow.  Even if it makes him better, I think Forrest is the better fighter.  Have we all forgot how far Forrest has come since their first fight just because he got his clock cleaned by Anderson Silva?  Forrest Griffin via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I think this fight looks a lot like their first one, except more of the last part of it.  I'm not sure Tito is as "done" as I've seen some people suggest, but three more years on a bad back (even on a light fight schedule) is no good.  And while both guys are largely the same fighters are they were at UFC 59, Forrest has matured and refined his game in the time.  Forrest Griffin by decision.

Chris Nelson: I'd argue that this is almost an impossible fight to pick, given the laundry list of unknowns and intangibles. I see a determined Tito Ortiz doing everything in his power to get the "W" here, even grinding something out on the floor. Ortiz via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I don't know Tito Ortiz' current performance level given the surgery and the time spent out of the cage. And that is all I need to not know to pick Forrest Griffin by TKO, Round 3.

Leland Roling: Tito Ortiz's back is the major question here. Was his back actually hurt that badly in his last few fights? Did it really affect him that much? Griffin's striking should be enough to win him a decision if Ortiz can't take down Griffin, but I'm going to bank on Ortiz's training with Roach combined with a healthy back to push him through to victory here. Tito Ortiz via decision.

Nick Thomas: Ortiz said he was 60% in the last fight. If that's true... Ortiz should take this. But we have to factor in the ring rust. But that can be countered by Griffin just getting married. It'll be a close fight, but I going with Ortiz by decision.


Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson

Luke Thomas: I think eventually Johnson is going to get taken to the floor, but I'm betting over the long run Johnson can find a way to score enough points/land a KO bomb while defending the takedown enough. Johnson by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: These two have trained together in the past and word is that Koscheck had his way with Johnson. I hate relying on Josh Koscheck to fight smart, but he's got to know that Johnson is too formidable on the feet to stand and trade with. Koscheck by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: If...IF Josh fights smart and tries to turn this into a drawn out wrestling match I think he can win a decision.  I don't fully trust Johnson's gas tank at his size in a really physical fight.  But despite what he says Josh is in love with his striking and you just do not want to strike with Anthony Johnson.  AJ will catch Josh early and that will be that.  Anthony Johnson by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  The safe bet is Kos, but I'm going with a changing of the guard.  I think Kos wants to trade, and he can win standing, but the odds are against him.  Johnson just has to land once, and I think he will.  Anthony Johnson via KO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I see this looking a lot like Alves/Kos, though Johnson has a couple more question marks than Thiago.  And while I love superheel Josh Koscheck, Anthony Johnson makes my pants feel funny when I watch him in the cage.  Anthony Johnson by KO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Koscheck won't be brazen enough to trade with Johnson for too long, but I don't think it'll matter. Johnson's proving too much for almost anyone to handle at 170. Johnson via TKO, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: Josh Koscheck will not go for the takedown in this fight, I think. Anthony Johnson by TKO, Round 1.

Leland Roling: If Koscheck tries to trade, he'll get busted. But if he decides that this fight is a wrestler's match in which he can control Johnson on the floor, he'll wear Johnson down quickly and gas him out. Josh Koscheck via decision.

Nick Thomas: Will Koscheck go for the takedown? I sure hope so. But he won't. Because of that I'm going with Johnson by TKO.


Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni

Luke Thomas: As underwhelming as Sadollah has been, he's not the one who went from beating Amar Suloev to losing handily to Joe Riggs. Amir Sadollah by submission.

Kid Nate: It's almost as if the UFC re-signed Phil Baroni strictly to give Amir Sadollah a gimme fight. Amir should survive the early blitz and go on to tap out a gassed NYBA. Sadollah by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Much as dislike Baroni the fact stands that Amir showed some big ol' holes in his striking game against Hendricks.  I also don't know that he has the wrestling to force the fight to the ground.  But, at the same time Baroni has legendarily bad cardio and looks like death from what people who have seen him have been saying as well as in any video interview shows.  So it comes down to this in my mind: can Baroni catch Amir in the first couple minutes of the fight or does Amir take him to the deep waters of the two and a half minute mark?  Amir by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Baroni is dangerous for 2 minutes, but his power is overstated these days.  Amir is the more skilled fighter, and will run away with this in the second and third.  Amir via submission, round 3.

Mike Fagan: For as much as I hate Mike Swick for no reason, I love Phil Baroni for even less.  And I'm not particularly sold on a guy with two professional fights on his record.  Early stoppage or not, Johny Hendricks was lighting him up on his feet.  Plus, how does Sadollah drag Baroni to the ground?   Phil Baroni by TKO, round 3.

Chris Nelson: Can't say I understand the matchmaking here at all. Is the UFC trying to bury one of their most recent Ultimate Fighter(rrrr)s? Because, aside from the cardio issues which everyone's mentioned, I don't know how Baroni loses this fight. Baroni via TKO, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: I hate this fight in that it makes me think of Phil Baroni as the potential victor. However, against that, I'll take as my pick Sadollah, who will be submitting a gassed Baroni early in the 1st. Amir Sadollah by armbar, Round 1.

Leland Roling: The argument that Phil Baroni has only two minutes of conditioning and that he'll gas on his way to the cage has long been over. His fight with Riggs... he displayed some slightly improved cardio by lasting through the first round, and he's still a formidable force in punching your face in within the first few minutes. Sadollah will have to weather the storm, but I'm taking Phil Baroni purely based on my own fandom. THE BEST EVA!! Phil Baroni via TKO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Baroni is back in the UFC but has anything has changed? I'm sure Sadollah plans to test Baroni's gas tank in the later rounds so Baroni will have to end it early. Baroni by TKO.


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Luis Cane

Luke Thomas: Unless Cane makes a positional error, this is his fight to lose. I think Lil' Nog's boxing is hugely overrated and Cane's aggressive but thoughtfully tactical approach to fights will be the difference. Cane by decision.

Kid Nate: This could be an epic war, pitting the up and coming Cane against the old PRIDE warrior Little Nog. Nogueira's boxing should capitalize on Cane's mistakes standing and he'll own Cane on the ground. Nogueira by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Wow, this is a hard fight to call.  I like Cane's style but I think he fits well into the "guys Nogueira eats alive" category.  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.

Michael Rome:  Real interesting fight.  Cane has a great chin and slick muay thai, but he has terrible head movement and tends to get hit a lot.  So far he's gotten away with it, will he be able to eat Nogueira's straight lefts with no issues?  I think Nog brings too much to the table.  Nogueira via decision.

Mike Fagan: As others have said, this is an awesome fight.  Really solid matchmaking, though Cane's camp has come out and said they don't really want to fight someone Luis looks up to.  And it's gonna be a tough fight for them.  Nogueira's shown what he can do to more dynamic and athletic Muay Thai guys, and Cane is way more plodding that "Shogun" Rua.  I don't expect this to hit the floor, but if it does, that should be Nogueira's domain.  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.

Chris Nelson: Joe Silva, forcing the Brasileiros to pick sides yet again - and with such a tough fight to call, too. Haven't looked at betting lines, but I'd guess Nogueira's coming in a slight favorite. I think "Banha" pulls the upset, with youth and aggression overcoming experience and an (almost always) iron jaw. Cane via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I'm ready to be convinced, as I cannot make a choice. I'll go with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision split.

Leland Roling: Fans need to go back and watch Cane vs. Sokoudjou and Cane vs. Cantwell. There are some glaring problems that Cane needs to correct because he won't be able to gut out exchanges that aren't there against a in-and-out boxer like Rogerio. Rogerio will add to the laundry list of Ed Soares fighters at the top. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision.

Nick Thomas: Such a great fight here. Nogueira should have the better stand up but Cane has the UFC experience. If we factor in Nog's debut jitters... I'm going with Cane by decision.


Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann

Luke Thomas: I take seriously the wrestling ability of Volkmann and worry he might get himself in trouble going head to head with Thiago, but I suspect he can get the job done. Volkmann by decision.

Kid Nate: This is Thiago's big chance to show what he can do against someone who is NOT a top ten welterweight. Volkmann is coming in surrounded by a cloud of hype about his wrestling abilities, but IMO if Thiago can almost catch Jon Fitch, he can tap Volkmann. Thiago by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: After the Fitch fight I'm sold on Thiago being legitimately dangerous.  Paulo Thiago by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Volkmann is talented on the ground, unfortunately for him he's going against someone better on the ground.  Thiago via submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: A year ago, Paulo Thiago was the nobody that came out of nowhere to KO Josh Koscheck.  Now, Jacob Volkmann is that same guy.  It's always hard to pick a fight when both guys have little experience against top competition.  With that in mind, I go with the guy who's been here before.  Paulo Thiago by decision.

Chris Nelson: Hard one to call, having never seen Volkmann fight, but the BJJ credentials of these two tells me this could turn into a boxing match. I'll take a flyer on the rangier Thiago handing "Christmas" his first loss. Thiago via TKO, round two.

Eugene Schelfaut: Christmas will be coming only once this year. Paulo Thiago via submission, Round 1.

Leland Roling: I have to switch my stance once again. After reviewing some footage, Volkmann's wrestling is very strong, but he also has multiple ways in which he can gain takedowns and punish his opponents. I don't think he'll be able to finish Thiago, but I think he can control him and wear him out on his way to a decision victory. Jacob Volkmann via decision.

Nick Thomas: I am buying into the hype about Volkmann. Like Rosholt, I think Volkmann can grind out a win as long as he doesn't get caught. Volkmann by decision.

 

Preliminary Bouts:

Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis

Luke Thomas: I tend to think the reach of Saunders will not be insurmountable for Davis. Davis is too well-rounded with too much finishing ability with a wide array of different skill sets. Davis by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Saunders is too long for Davis. Marcus will eat knees standing and get beat up on the ground. Saunders by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: It's all about size here.  Maybe Davis could win by going for takedowns and GnP but he's so into the whole "give 'em a show" thing that he's going to stand.  I think Saunders will wear him out standing with his length and a hurt Davis will try to get inside for takedowns too late and eat a knee in the clinch that puts him to sleep.  Specific?  Yes.  Correct?  We'll see.  Ben Saunders by KO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  This fight just got an "ugh" out of me.  I think we'll see Davis try to get this to the ground and win here.  Really, I have no idea.  I think Davis via TKO.

Mike Fagan: The only thing I worry about with Davis is how he handles Saunders size.  Marcus is not terribly big at 170, and Saunders is a big dude.  But Davis should be the better all around fighter, so Marcus Davis by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Oh boy. Um. My gut says the longer Saunders will be able to avoid major damage and outpoint the "Irish Hand Grenade," but reality says that Davis has only lost to upper-echelon 170-pounders during his UFC run, and Saunders isn't that. Davis via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I really have something against people who smile more than myself. Marcus Davis will find a way to win. Marcus Davis by decision unanimous.

Leland Roling: I'm going to change my stance on this fight. I've been banking on an upset win for Ben Saunders here, but after re-viewing the Mike Swick battle... I can't pick Saunders. Saunders is going to be way overmatched here, and he really didn't know what he was doing in that Swick fight. I have to go with Davis. Marcus Davis via TKO, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Both fighters are going to be hungry. I have to give it to Saunders because he's bigger and has the longer reach. Saunders by decision.


Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt

Luke Thomas: When Rosholt gets hit, he freezes. Grove has the difficult task of pouring on the offense without over committing or getting out of position. I can easily Rosholt getting caught and being unable to escape as easily as I can see Grove giving up the takedown and guard pass enough to lose a decision. I'll go with the Rosholt. Rosholt by split decision.

Kid Nate: I think Rosholt will have learned from bitter experience to stick with his wrestling game rather than trying to strike with Grove, the problem is the lanky Grove is a threat to win via submission from his back. On the other hand, Grove is susceptible to taking a beating. This could go either way, but I think Rosholt has the winner's frame of mind and will pull it out. Rosholt by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Weird fight.  Rosholt's game is all kinds of holey, Grove's chin is all kinds of dentable.  I think Grove's better all around game give him the win since Rosholt's stand-up is so sloppy.  I also think if it hits the ground that Grove will be able to tangle Jake up well enough to not eat too much damage before stopping Rosholt in the third.  Kendall Grove by TKO, round 3.

Michael Rome:  Very interesting fight here.  In theory Rosholt should be able to wet blanket him, but he's shown signs of Sean Sherk syndrome lately.  If he decides to stand to be exciting I see him getting waxed.  Kendall Grove via KO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I might be nuthugging the blue chip prospect thing, but I really like Rosholt in this fight.  Grove's height will always provide an interesting problem at 185, but I think it also provides himself with problems.  I think Rosholt fights smarts, works for takedowns, and grinds out the decision.  Jake Rosholt by decision.

Chris Nelson: I could see the smaller Rosholt taking Grove down ad nauseum and grinding something out, but the more experienced Grove will likely be able to find a submission from underneath and prolong his UFC stay yet again. Grove via submission, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: Jake Rosholt will make Kendall Grove quit early. Jake Rosholt by TKO, Round 1.

Leland Roling: Rosholt wasn't overly impressive against a Chris Leben who possibly didn't train for the fight. He showed some good wrestling skill, as he should, but Grove's size and grappling ability will pose problems. I still think Rosholt can present a mean top control game for Grove though. Jake Rosholt by decision.

Nick Thomas: Another free fight on Spike, love it. Rosholt should be able to grind out a decision here, as long as he doesn't get caught on the ground. Rosholt by decision.


Brock Larson vs. Brian Foster

Luke Thomas: Larson has a similar fighting style and natural strengths as Ricky Story. I expect a similar result. Larson by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: I'm still stunned that Larson lost the wrestling battle to Mike Pierce but I expect he'll be able to work his top control game in this one. Larson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: I don't know why.  Call it a gut pick or whatever you like.  But I like Foster's ability to get back to his feet where he throws some good strikes.  Larson is perfectly capable of screwing this fight up.  Brian Foster by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Brock Larson via decision.

Mike Fagan: Larson better make up for the Pierce debacle or he's gonna be on the outside looking in.  Brock Larson by decision.

Chris Nelson: After a September decision loss to newcomer Mike Pierce, Larson will be out to make Foster's life miserable. Endless takedowns and ground poundage to a late stoppage. Larson via TKO, round three.

Eugene Schelfaut: Larson is a grinder. Brock Larson via RNC, round 3.

Leland Roling: I actually think Foster has a slight chance here as he does a great job at scrambling and accurately blasting his opponents, but Larson's wrestling and submisson ability is pretty formidable for Foster to overcome. Brock Larson via submission, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Larson is a beast... Larson by submission.


Caol Uno vs. Fabricio Camoes

Luke Thomas: Believe it or not, Uno is an excellent submission grappler and a better wrestler than Camoes. I'll give Uno the nod here. Uno by decision.

Kid Nate: Uno should be able to grind this one out. Uno by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Much like Leland points out, Camoes is a fantastic guy to place a bet on.  However, Uno is the better guy to put a straight up pick on.  Caol Uno by (lackluster) decision.

Michael Rome:  Uno via decision.

Mike Fagan: Hard to pick against Uno here, though I've heard some good things about Camoes.  Hopefully Caol can put on an exciting fight and get himself back on the main card.  Caol Uno by decision.

Chris Nelson: Another tough draw for Uno, who put up a good fight against Spencer Fisher in his first bout back with the UFC. "Morango" is on quite a roll, but my only qualm with picking him is that he hasn't seen deep waters in years, and Uno is likely to take him there. I'll take the strawberry to eek out a decision, though. Camoes via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Uno needs a win. Caol Uno by decision.

Leland Roling: Uno will need to positionally dominate Camoes in this fight to win, and I'm definitely going to lay some scratch down on Camoes as he was a 4-to-1 underdog. I still think Uno can gain the ground advantage here and eek out the decision. Uno via decision.

Nick Thomas: Uno should be safe on the ground and will dominate this fight with wrestling. Uno by decision.


George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent

Luke Thomas: Dent is good at everything where Sotiropoulos excels. Dent is tough, but that will just delay the inevitable. Sotiropoulos by submission.

Kid Nate: Could be a Judo Chop for Sotiropoulos. Sotiropoulos by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Hey look!  It's submission of the night!  George Sotiropoulos by submission, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Sotiropolous should be able to get this to the ground and get a sub. Sotiropoulos by submission.

Mike Fagan: Jason Dent lost all worth to me after he fulfilled his destiny and anaconda choked Cameron Dollar.  Your fifteen minutes are up sir.  George Sotiropolous by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Sotiropoulos via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: The fight which in picking causes me the least amount of pause. I'm looking forward to a two minute clinic. George Sotiropoulos via submission, Round 1.

Leland Roling: Sotiropoulos by blazing fast guard passing clinic (submission), Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Sotiropoulos by submission.