Gambling Spotlight: UFC 106

Jokes on everyone else.  I had Lifefail by Bacterial Infection, round 1 at +150000. 

Since you poor schmucks didn't hit the sweet line, I'll let you in on the other money making opportunities for this Saturday at UFC 106.

I liked this fight as a co-main with Lesnar/Carwin, but I think it's pretty bland as a standalone headliner.  The redemption angle for Forrest draws interest, but the fight itself shouldn't stray too far from the first.  And when you remove the name's involved, their first encounter wasn't particularly impressive.

Nothing and everything has changed since UFC 59.  Following a hiccup with Keith Jardine, Griffin defeated "Shogun" Rua and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson to briefly stand atop the 205 pound division before Rashad Evans derailed his success.  The superfight with Anderson Silva that followed ended with Forrest living up to his name.

Ortiz went on to beat up Ken Shamrock not once, but twice before Chuck Liddell obliterated him for a second time.  He later drew Rashad Evans in a dreadful fight, followed by getting the Mexican beaten out of him by Lyoto Machida at UFC 84.  Since then, Ortiz has been busy teasing Strikeforce, having trouble speaking for Affliction, and telling panhandlers to get a job (sir).

Their style and ability have gone nearly unchanged.  Forrest has refined his brawling style to a more sophisticated barrage of high-volume strikes.  Besides that, neither guy has made significant strides since 2005.  Ortiz and Griffin still don't have KO power because they seem unable to throw from their core.  Ortiz will still try to hit more doubles than Albert Pujols.  And with their cardio and workrate, we should expect a pretty high-paced 205 bout.

The difference in 2009 is that both guys are three-plus years older.  That means three more years of strain on Ortiz's notoriously bad back.  It means Forrest has three more years of experience, confidence, and time working with Xtreme Couture.  In MMA, three years makes a world of difference.

If you hopped on Griffin when the line opened.  Congratulations, you've been paying attention.  The line peaked at Griffin -180 before settling at the current price.  I like Griffin a lot under -150 and up to just under -200.  Ortiz will have to repeat the first fight to win this one, and while I think there's a significant chance that happens, it's much less likely in 2009.

"Rumble" opened at a plus number, I missed it, and now he's a slight favorite.  If the fight reminds you of Koscheck/Alves, good job.  There's two significant differences I see on paper.  One, Johnson hasn't shown ability to defend takedowns (mostly because he hasn't really been tested), but he does have a wrestling pedigree that Alves lacked.  Secondly, and more pressing, how does Johnson fight off his back?  Rich Clementi tooled him on the floor two years ago, but we need to consider that 1) Johnson has improved his game since then and 2) Johnson took the fight on very short notice.  Also just like Thiago, there are concerns about the weight cut, so if you're froggy about that, I suggest you hold off until after the weigh-ins.

I've heard a lot of rumbling that Kos will run Johnson over, but I just don't see it.  I like a small (less than a unit) play on Rumble.

Remember how I hated on Mike Swick in the run-up to UFC 105?  Yeah, that's how I feel about Baroni, but the other way around.  There's just something about Phil, amongst all his faults and failures, that draws my adoration.  So, take the following with a grain of salt.  I kinda like the New York Bad Ass at the current price.  Sadollah, TUF aside, has two fights to his record.  He armbarred what has turned out to be a less-than-stellar prospect in CB Dollaway; and, early stoppage or not, got punched up by Johny Hendricks.  I also have serious doubts that Amir can take Phil down, which really hurts his chances to beat Baroni.  I like a half-unit flier on the NYBA.

The books just put this up, and the line opened the opposited of how I hope (though, it is the "correct" line).  If Rogerio was not a member of Familia Nogueira, I think I might be conducting an express train to Valuetown right now.  As it stands, the line looks fairly efficient.  Little Nog showed in the Shogun fight that he can pick apart Muay Thai strikers.  And Shogun is a lot more dynamic and technical than Cane, who tends to stalk (GOLDBERG!) in a plodding manner.

Both guys are tough and durable as all get-up, and I might make a play on this going to a decision.